A Reminder - Nature is King

 

I spent part of last week at Lake Louise - always a treat. This photograph captures the sense of awe one has when there. It was my birthday treat to be in the mountains and what a treat it was..

Nobama or Obama?

Watching the last two days of the US Presidential election, I am reminded of 2000 election and how close that was. Bush won by less than 600 in Florida and Florida (and the Supreme Court) meant that Bush won the Presidency. John Kerry was also closer on election day than the polls suggested. The polls are tightening and the number of undecided remains a large percentage – up to 12% in some states and around 7-10% in swing states. It’s going to be close.

Obama and Biden are playing a strong end-game, but the race appears to be tightening. McCain shouldn’t be written off just yet. McCain and Palin are also message aligned, consistent and hitting key buttons – taxation, wealth redistribution (which apparently is wrong), socialism and fear. It’s all they have left. Obama is on offensive, tackling Florida and several McCain states and McCain is on the defensive – a position he seems to relish. All of a sudden, this 21 month long odyssey is getting interesting.

So Tuesday will be tight. When it comes to the wire, what matters will be the skills of the two campaigns in actually getting the vote out. The weather will also be a factor. As a former election agent for the Labour Party (1974 Cardiff North), what can go wrong will go wrong – in our case, a bus full of pensioners crashed into the opponents bus, a key election worker had a heart attack at the ballot station and our candidate said a few unfortunate things the day before the vote. But each vote counts.

Looks like Obama will make it and then the campaign will really start. He has a lot to do. He probably inherits a United States in the worst state its been in since the first President began his first term after the civil war. He will need a lot of help. A lot.

He needs to reach out to the world and restore the multi-lateral approach Clinton and Reagan pursued. He needs to help Americans understand that they cant live their lives on credit and get them to change their behaviour and he will have to face up to the fact that many of the programs he imagined he could offer before the financial crash cannot now be afforded. It will be a tough first 100 days.

At least I get to spend Tuesday evening with Candy Crowley of CNN. who I think is very smart and very seductive. The thinking man's Barefoot Contessa.

Climate Change = Democrats?

An investigation by the US Senator Inhofe (Republican – Oklahoma) has demonstrated clearly that environmental groups are essentially political and they spend funds donated for environmental causes in support of the US Democratic Party in contravention of the law. So far, key environmental groups have spent over $3 million in support of Democrats who they think will push their agenda in the House. The Sierra Club is supporting Obama with funds.

The climate change lobby is essentially a liberal/democrat lobby which has found a new crisis cause to ensure that Government can collect more taxes and intervene in more aspects of the lives of people and organization. So as to extend the power of the State, they have to believe and promote the idea that humans are the cause of climate change and therefore they have to intervene to change human behaviour. They promote guilt and a willingness to allow the State to dictate what cars we drive, how our homes should be built and heated, how our companies should operate and what crops should be grown to produce biofuels.

This despite the fact that the science of climate change is complex and not at all clear. To overcome this, the liberal political establishment have hijacked the IPCC and turned the legitimate scientific exploration of the issue of climate change into a purely socio-political and political-technical issue.

As the earth cools, politicians simply ignore evidence and promote their tax and spend agenda. As the ice thickens at both the North and South Poles, politicians claim that those drawing attention to all of this are “deniers” and seeks to label them as deviants. It is pure liberal fascism.

What is worrying is how it is not really possible to have the conversation any more. The liberal media and the political elite have a de facto commitment to maintaining the fantasy of man made warming since it sells papers and promotes centralist control politics. The facts get in the way. The result is that those who deny the science – people like Al Gore – get rewarded and those who challenge the orthodoxy find themselves frozen out.

It is time for truth telling. Don’t hold your breath!

Arctic Ice - Some Good News!

Despite the oft repeated media claims that the Arctic ice is melting and we could have an ice free north Pole, there is some very good news.

Using a variety of data sources, but primarily direct observations, the ice in the Arctic is getting thicker – some projections suggest that multi-year ice (perennial ice versus annual ice) will be 200% thicker at the end of 2008 than it was at the beginning. What is more, Arctic sea ice is already 28.7% higher than this date last year.

In addition, the Antarctic is also showing thocker ice than for some time - further evidence of global cooling.

A Week is a Long Time in Politics

Obama will win the US Presidential election on November 4th and do so easily. McCain, who I see as a decent if naïve veteran living out his dream but doing so from an age other than that in which he is living, is simply showing he is not up to it. First, he really doesn’t understand the underlying issues of the US economic challenge. Second, he has demonstrated poor judgment in his choice of Sarah Palin (and by doing so, revitalized Saturday Night Live, which is a good thing). Finally, he has little to offer other than decency.

Harper has won a quiet victory here in Canada. A strengthened minority government, a Liberal party in confusion about its future – leaderless, cash strapped and in decline - they will be distracted now by their own issues for some time to come – and a clear demonstration that green politics are back door politics for Canadians.

In Britain, where I was last week, Gordon Brown has been transformed from village idiot to super-hero and is widely applauded for being truly audacious. Nationalizing banks (not just failing banks, but big ones), taking command of the economy and seeking to fundamentally reinvent capitalism – the “old” ambitions of the labour party fulfilled in a week. Not only that, but recognition world-wide for his inspiring leadership.

It was Harold Wilson who coined the phrase “a week is a long time in politics”. As we can see, he was right.

Knickers

My grandmother - a wise woman if there ever was one - told me once that "any girl that shows you her knickers is someone to be wary of".

Good job she wasn't on Oxford Street or around Leicester Square in London last week. The new dress code almost requires young women to share their secrets. Coming out of a restaurant just off Oxford street, a young lady had her left leg up and was quietly stroking her leg. Knickers were red. En route back from a Harold Pinter play, I caught site of several pairs of knickers as I walked back to Bloomsbury. I was very wary, honest.

What was striking was how provocative many women were in terms of their dress. I know this is a politically incorrect thing to be saying - after all, its all in the eye of the beholder isn't it? - but if some of these ladies were my daughters I would be extremely concerned. Thank goodness we didn't have daughters.

So Much for the IPCC!

The following statements are all true:

1. The Juneau ice fields in Alaska are getting thicker following the worst year on record for cold weather since 1946 – see http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/555283.html

2. El Nino and La Nina effects in the tropics have a more significant affect on global temperature anomalies than carbon dioxide, in particular it was an El Nino event that drove the 1998 global temperature maximum.

3. Variations in global temperatures since 1978 have mostly been due to climate effects in the northern hemisphere (northern extratropics) and these effects cannot be attributed to carbon dioxide.

4. Carbon dioxide has contributed a small amount to an increase in global temperatures but without what is commonly referred to as feed-back. See . http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2008/10/new-detailed-analysis-of-global-temperature-data-does-not-support-significant-role-for-carbon-dioxide/ for all of the last three points.

5. The last time the sun was as quiet as it is now was 400 years ago, and that signaled the onset of a period of global cooling, the coldest point of which is known as the Maunder Minimum. At that time, New York harbor froze to such a degree that people could walk from Manhattan island over to the island on which the Statue of Liberty stands today. In London, the Thames froze, and ice fairs were held on the river. There has been no global warming since 1998. In fact, there has been a slight cooling. See http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/page.php?rep_id=175

6. The global warming cycle from 1977 to 1998 is now over and we have entered into a new global cooling period that should last for the next three decades. He also suggests that since the IPCC climate models are now so far off from what is actually happening that their projections for both this decade and century must be considered highly unreliable. See http://icecap.us/images/uploads/GSA.pdf

7. The latest scientific observations show that Arctic ice has actually increased by nearly a half million square miles over this time last year.

Time to look again at the “green shift” ? I think so.

A Plan for Dion - Build the New Economy.....

Stephan Dion says that Canada needs an economic package to counter the melt down of the US economy and the underlying issues in key parts of our own economy, especially forestry and manufacturing. So, here is an outline of a point by point plan:

1. Privatise forest lands and permit companies to use the forests against environmental regulations.

2. Dissolve the egg, milk and grain marketing boards and permit farmers to sell to world markets in any way they see fit.

3. End all forms of farm subsidy.

4. Stop the EDC from competing with banks for loan guarantees and investment for exports and return them to their original purpose of export credit guarantees.

5. Permit bank mergers.

6. Shut down the CRTC and permit inward investment in cultural industries – stop
trying to protect Canadian culture.

7. Abandon all carbon based taxes – instead offer inveatment incentives for the
widespread adoption of green technologies by firms and match provincial investments in carbon capture and storage.

8. Create free trade zones in BC, Alberta, Quebec, Ontario and the Maritimes and encourage the relevant economic development agencies to focus on building industries in which a province can develop jurisdictional advantage.

9. Double SR&ED tax credits and triple the IRAP budget at the National Research Council so as to stimulate real innovation by firms.

10. Create a $1 billion venture capital fund which must be managed by a Canadian based venture capital consortium which matches these funds at 3:1 or better.

11. Provide Government RRSP deposit guarantees for the full amount of funds held in individual RRSP accounts.

12. Close tax loopholes, simplify the tax system and give a 3 year tax vacation to start-up companies.

13. Continue to invest in post-secondary education, both in terms of student places (increase funds available to support students in need) and research.

14. Don’t spend as a government more than you bring in revenue – fiscal conservatism, deficit free budgets and paying down debt. Cut programs that done add value and reduce the overall payroll of the Federal government by 20% by 2012.

15. Seek to develop the green industry sector through systematic procurement activities of Government and focused investments in greenenergy and green building technologies.

16. Refuse to subsidise failing industries and banks – instead, focus on creating a culture of commerce.

I suspect few if any of these proposals would meet with Dion’s liberal fascist agenda, which is about government programs and patronising subsidies. What we really need is to see firms and their growth as the key requirement for a 21st century Canada.

Dandy Mandy is Back at the Party!

Crickey! Gordon Brown has confounded everyone and shuffled his cabinet. In a very dramatic move, he has brought back Peter Mandelson, the key figure in the founding of New Labour alongside Tony Blair, to be his Secretary of State for Business. He was Trade Commissioner for the EU – he will be given a seat in the House of Lords (what him ask for an interesting title). Talk about shaking things up – this will do it.

Blair fired Mandelson twice for basically being very silly. The first time was over not disclosing a major loan from a colleague, which he used to buy a very nice and extremely expensive apartment in London. On the second occasion it was for not being exactly straight with Blair about his role in a passport application for the Hinduja brothers. He was later cleared of any wrongdoing, having being accused of misconduct.
You can just imagine how miserable this makes the “old” labour crowd who saw Gordon as their hope of restoring the party to their pre Blair glory or to those who had leadership ambitions. Watch these developments closely – other news will follow.

Linda Hughes, Chancellor, University of Alberta

Earlier today, Linda was elected Chancellor the University to replace the retiring Eric Newall. I regard Linda as a friend and one of Edmonton's finest ..so congratulations Linda.

A side note: the new Chancellor and her predecessor were both awarded Honorary degrees from Athabasca before anyone else offered them such recognition. In both cases, I nominated them for the degree.

Now, who shall I start thinking about next...

We spill more beer than we export...

Why Mexican’s Don’t Drink Molson’s is a powerful book. Written in 2007, it documents Canada’s lamentable performance on the competitive stage internationally. Examples after examples are cited to show that we just don’t “get it”. Pointing out that we now spill more beer than we export, the book challenges entrepreneurs to work hard to think beyond the US market and get moving.

But its not easy. We are hampered by an anti-commerce culture, especially in our educational institutions. We are also not helped by unfocused and over complex government policies, the deplorable behaviour of the Export Development Corporation (EDC) and by the absence of strong free trade within Canada.

We have an election in just 11 days. None of the parties are really speaking to the fact that Canada’s competitiveness and productivity are falling, other countries are dominating the world of trade (Australia, for one) and we simply don’t have a real clue about how to build strong companies which relentlessly pursue global markets. While Stephen Harper has indicated some intention to open up Canada to more extensive foreign investments, some real obstacles to trade within Canada remain. For example, the egg, milk and what marketing boards remain. The complexity of inter-Provincial trade remains puzzling and expensive (costing in excess of $33 billion a year to manage). The CRTC continues to impede the growth of our telecommunications and cultural industries and Industry Canada seems increasingly like a pointless organization.

Perhaps worst of all, we simply don’t get innovation, continuing to see innovation as about universities, research and highly qualified academics. Its time we stood up and recognized that its about firms – firms developing products and services which command revenue from customers and which enable them to occupy significant market share globally.

Our preoccupation with the US – which today looks like a fragile obsession and a dangerous one - coupled with a blind reliance on the World Trade Organization means that we have few bilateral trade agreements which have led to expansion of markets for Canadian goods and services. This book draws attention to the need to aggressively pursue such biltaral agreements – nothing in the position of the parties mentions this at all.

Our preoccupation with local matters – Quebec, Ontario’s fiscal challenges – is blinding us to play a different role in international trade.

So this book should be compulsory reading for all policy makers and all public servants which manage any part of the innovation supply chain or our efforts to grow our economy. Pay attention to the fact that we are not punching our weight in world trade, our productivity is falling relative to others and our competitiveness is in decline.

I am Tired of Friedman

I am becoming annoyed with Thomas Friedman.

Don’t get me wrong, he is bright and can write – normally things I admire and appreciate. Its just that what he writes is becoming less connected with the realities of the world.

Take his latest epic column – the book Hot, Fat and Crowded - Why We Need a Green Revolution and How it Can Renew America. (When I first saw the title Hot, Fat and Crowded I thought it was a biography). It accepts uncritically the anthropomorphic global warming hypothesis, acknowledges obesity in the western world and then looks at global population developments and brings it all back to environmental concerns. Over the course of 412 pages he outlines why going green would revive the American economy, increase real security and be good for the world.

He should know better. First, the reason the demographics are as they are is poverty. As soon as a region becomes wealthy, then birthrates fall and the health of the population improves significantly. As it does, they can avoid obesity by regulation and the systematic pursuit of food for health. By denying access to American fast food chains, emerging nations can have less of an obesity problem than those which have permitted their expansion.

Rather than worry about global warming, we should be seeking to enable and empower the adaptability of people through the encouragement of entrepreneurship. If there is a market for green technologies, then entrepreneurs will respond. Massice subsidies for green products and services (which is what is happening now) distort markets and have unintended consequences – the rush to biofuels (which are pollutants) or wind power (which is no real solution) demonstrate this clearly.

For a smart man, the thinking of Friedman is shallow and surprisingly uncritical. Its also very repetitive and verbose.

Time for a period of self imposed writing exile in terms of these large pieces – I, for one, have had enough.

On the Boil!

On Jamie Oliver’s new (UK) TV show Ministry of Food, a mother confesses to him that she doesn’t know what “boiling” is or how to do it. Another feeds her children potato crisps each evening for dinner. Almost none cook a meal.

When Delia Smith launched her TV series How to Cook, it was based in part on a survey which suggested that less than 15% of British families sit down together and eat a meal which has been cooked from fresh ingredients just once a week. The situation is not much different in Canada – cooking from scratch has almost disappeared from family homes as a regular event. Roughly 20% of all meals eaten in Canadian homes are “take out” meals from restaurants and take out specialist stores and 25% of meals eaten are eaten out. Many of the meals eaten in are “ready meals” from the grocery store – pizza etc.

Talking to a young friend (in her mid 20’s) she knows how to cook just wo dishes , she says. One is a slow cooked chicken dish (put all of the ingredients in a slow cooked and turn on) and the other is bacon sandwiches. She says her mum can’t cook at all.

I was talking to a seven year old the other day. I had just been to the farmers market. I showed him an egg plant (aubergine) and asked him what it was. He had no idea. I went through my produce – carrot, celery, celery root (celeriac) , spinach, leeks, onions, fingerling potato, etc. He didn’t name any of them – but was close with carrots (these were blue and yellow carrots, not the bright orange ones). I asked him about soup and he told me that it comes from a can and didn’t believe you could make soup at home with the ingredients I had in my bag.

This saddens me and worries me. I was born into a restaurant family – my French grandfather (Marcel Leclerc from Neville) owned a restaurant and was a Paris trained chef. I cook and all members of my family cook. We eat a fresh cooked meal every evening and, even though I lunch out frequently as part of the work of securing business, if I am not eating out we’ll have a home made Tuscan bean soup or a croq monsieur or a frittata – something quick and easy.

This total rubbish about not having enough time is a lame excuse for not having the skills and the confidence – it takes just the same time to cook a basic meal as it does to drive, queue, pay and then reheat a ready meal. There is more nutrition in a home cooked meal, its cheaper and, well I could go on.

There are strong links between the way we chose to manage our meals and health. Obesity is not an accident or some bug induced disease. It is something we eat our way into – as, for many, is Type II diabetes. There are strong links between eating as a family together and the social cohesion of families.

It looks like a lost cause. I was working in a school yesterday and chatted with them about school meals. Jamie Oliver’s campaign for healthy food at school hasn’t reached here yet – its still pandering to the burgers, fries and generally fast food eating habits that we are trying to break kids from.

I have no solutions. As a parent I made sure that our children saw both of their parents cook and love the process and both are more than able to cook a range of meals and enjoy the process. We are cooking tonight for six (curries from scratch, including fresh ground which we grind) with the only pre-packaged ingredients being the nan bread. The pakora’s and all other components of this meal we have prepared.

As we look down our street, its sad to think that only 1 in five houses (if that) will be cooking tonight.

Three Elections?

So our elections are getting interesting.

First to Britain. A group of Labour MP’s have been stirring it up for Gordon Brown trying to create the momentum for a leadership contest leading into next weeks Labour Party conference. All the players who are out of the closet are minor players – no major challenger has emerged and likely candidates continue, in public at least, to back Gordon.

But things don’t look good for the dour Scot who has lost his way. If the party stands behind him right up to 2010, then Labour will sink into deep opposition for fifteen to twenty years. Good news for the Liberals, who are meeting this week.

Here are home, Stephen Harper looks like getting a majority, albeit slim. Dion, the unspeakable leader of the opposition, is not getting anywhere and the winner of the first week of activity was Danny Williams, Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador. Though he is not up for election, he gave the most intelligence and belligerent speech of the week opposing Stephen Harper. Elizabeth May’s tape of her calling Canadian’s “stupid” is getting good play – she denies saying it, but she is fibbing – shows what contempt these green evangelists have for the public (typical liberal fascist).

In the US, McCain continues to lead Obama who just is not getting traction. Its early days yet, and the difference is just 2% points (well within the margin of error). It will all come down to organization and weather on the day. Fancy, the future of the free world hangs on wind, water and snow.

Go to www.predictify.com for the latest cloud thinking on all of these elections.

A Deal in Zimbabwe At Last!

Friends in Zimbabwe report that, even after two revaluations that have knocked a total of 13 zeros off the Zimbabwe dollar, it was trading on the black market earlier today at around 6,000 to the USD – or 60,000,000,000,000,000 to one in terms of the original Zimbabwe dollar at independence.

The good news is that, according to published reports from Harare, there is now a power sharing deal between Zanu PF (Mugabe) and MDC (Tsvangirai) which will be announced on Monday. Let’s hope it is meaningful – the current arrangements and power mad Mugabe is killing people.

The Green Shift

Despite good advice, it looks like we are heading into an election here in Canada. Our Liberal leader, Dion, will be standing front and centre on an environmental platform and the rest of us will be looking to economic strategy. Dion will loose, then loose the leadership of the Liberal Party and the Liberals will be in the wilderness for 12-24 months. This is really why we are about to have an election. The distraction of the Liberals with a leadership campaign while at the same time facing bankruptcy will permit the Conservatives to govern.

The green shift will get short shrift. First, it is a set of taxes. It will have no real impact on any environmental concern and will, like the GST, simply anger people. The fact that it is based on a complete misunderstanding of climate change - CO2 is not and has never been the primary cause of warming or cooling - is one thing. It is also based on a misunderstanding of economic reality.

Adjusting the green shift to give close to $1 billion in tax credits and rebates does not disguise the fact that it is a cynical tax grab and will make for bigger government. The Canadian public will see through this in seconds.

So, watch this space for ongoing commentary on the election we are about to have.

Republican Party Convention

I have been keeping an eye on the convention.

What a dull affair. It has all the excitement of a snail trying to master the works of Mozart while being instructed by a dead frog. In comparison to the Democrats, these guys look and sound old. They look and sound tired and, well, worn out.

Rhetoric is not necessarily a bad thing, but it needs to be good rhetoric. I'm waiting.

Sarah Palin is on tonight and will get big coverage. I'll be watching. She has a lot to do. Expectation of McCain are low in terms of his speech closing the convention. So its up to her. We'll see.

Psychologist Need Help...

My fellow psychologists in the US have just made a remarkable decision. They have decided to use their skills to help individuals overcome their resistance to changing their behaviour so that we can affect climate change. So much for science. Individual changes in behaviour will not have a significant and lasting impact on climate change.

There’s nothing wrong with helping people have less of an impact on the planet. But to position this as being the same as “saving the planet” or impacting global warming is, well, just total bullshit for two reasons. First, the planet is cooling. Second, the primary causes of climate change have little to do with human behaviour.

It’s a sad day for science.

Whitening Teeth! Don' Do It!

My good and dear friend Shelley told me a tale about teeth whitenening this morning.

Before I retell the story, let just muse for a moment: why are so many people whitening their teeth ? Fashion. Its pure and simple fashion. There is nothing hygienic about it. It costs a lot of money to do professionally (and a fair bit to do it yourself) and its pointless. Totally and utterly pointless.

So Shelley has it done (dont ask why). She goes and spends real money and sits with her mouth looking like the end of a truck that has just unloaded a tonne of hay for an hour or so, goes away and does things with her teeth at home as per the kit and instructions and then comes bac to her dentist for more gob smacking pain. Then she goes home and the pain really starts. At one point, says Shell's, she wanted to pull each of her teeth out they were so painful. She nipped down to the liquor store and purchased the best known remedy: wine. It didn't take the pain away, just made it less obvious.

"I'd rather give birth", says Shelley (who knows about birth, since she is mum to two grown people). She also now only uses Sensodyne toothpaste - there's a clue right there!

Her advice: just don't do it!
My advice: don't even think about doing it.

Now, is this clear!

Last Word (for now) on Palin and McCain

As if this couldn't get worse. Paiin's daughter, Bristol (17), is pregnant and unmarried. She will marry the father and the baby will be born around the time of Obama's inauguration.

This in itself is no bad thing. It happens to many parents and daughters/sons. A Governor's daughter is no exception. She is also handling the parental issues well here and is being very supportive of her daughter. Good.

What is interesting here is whether McCain knew. He initially said no but his staff quickly changes his mind and indicated that he did. We will never know for sure.

What is disturbing is the lack of candour. Palin, if McCain wins, will Chair the Senate and will be under daily scrutiny as a Vice President and potential President. It was inevitable that this would come out so you think that the team would manage the news and ensure it was spun. Instead, it leaks out and then they respond. What next, one wonders?

McCain Shows Poor Judgement

It has now become clear that McCain's contempt for the people of the United States and the rest of the world is absolute. His VP pick was based on a single meeting with Sarah Palin six months ago and she has had no serious conversation about the Vice Presidential role until just a few days ago. So on the basis of reading about her on the internet and chatting with friends and colleagues (but not her), he makes his choice.

Three things:

1. McCain is 72 and has recurring bouts of cancer. If elected, he will be the oldest person ever to be sworn into office. The chances of Palin becoming President de facto (or dead factor) are high. McCain is willing to risk this on the basis of what?

2. The key issue is judgment and experience, at least according to McCain. This is what the campaign theme has been all year. So he abuses himself ny selecting someone who shows little of either.

3. It looks increasingly like a cynical move to win over women voters, full stop. It indicates that he does not take these voters seriously.

He is a dreadfully flawed man, as we now have seen.

Take a look at the posting on Matthew Gold's blog site - its worth it.

Potential US VP Shows Poor Judgement

This may seem a bit catty, but here goes.

One way of judging a person is by what they have decided to call their children. In my experience, the mother has the final say and it is never easy.But parents recognize that they are giving their children an identity that they will have to live with until they die (or change it by legal means).

So what did Gov. Sarah Palin call her children? Here are the names of her five children: Track, Bristol, Willow, Piper and Trig. So I don't mean to be mean and small minded, but really.

I accept that these names could have been worse: Glover, Tuke, Sled and so on. But Trig? Track?

I think we already have good evidence that she has shown poor judgment consistently over time in the naming of her children.

Monty Python Running for US Vice President...

When my phone beeped the text message simply said: Palin running with McCain as Vice Presidential nominee". I thought - "Crikey, Monty Python's Michael Palin's is running in the US election", nudge, nudge know what I mean.

Wrong. It is Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska. Who? Exactly. McCain (72 today) has chosen someone who has just 2 years as a Governor and was a Mayor of a small Alaska town. Talk about someone with little experience - his major accusation against Obama - he's chosen someone very few has ever heard of.

So when McCain dies in office, she will be the next President of the United States. So I guess my first reaction was right - its pure Monty Python.

Sex Addiction and the X-Files

David Duchovny, star of the X-Files and a seemingly nice guy, has entered a clinic which specializes in sex addiction. I think the clinic was founded by Depeche Mode, who got to number one with their song "Just Cant Get Enough".

This means that he must have met the ten criteria for securing this classification, which are:

1. Recurrent failure (pattern) to resist impulses to engage in extreme acts of lewd sex.
2. Frequent engaging in those behaviors to a greater extent or over a longer period of time than intended.
3. Persistent desire or unsuccessful efforts to stop, reduce, or control those behaviors.
4. Inordinate amount of time spent in obtaining sex, being sexual, or recovering from sexual experience.
5. Preoccupation with the behavior or preparatory activities.
6. Frequent engaging in violent sexual behavior when expected to fulfill occupational, academic, domestic, or social obligations.
7. Continuation of the behavior despite knowledge of having a persistent or recurrent social, financial, psychological, or physical problem that is caused or exacerbated by the behavior.
8. Need to increase the intensity, frequency, number, or risk of behaviors to achieve the desired effect, or diminished effect with continued behaviors at the same level of intensity, frequency, number, or risk.
9. Giving up or limiting social, occupational, or recreational activities because of the behavior.
10. Distress, anxiety, restlessness, or violence if unable to engage in the behavior.

Its not true that some people check in to such clinics so as to become sex addicts, but I wish Mr Duchovny well.

By the way, in a text on sex addiction therapy I found this statement: "Unless a sexual addict hits bottom (much like a drug addict) they will rarely seek recovery on their own." - I think spanking is a symptom, don't you?

Marmalde and the War onTerror

A friend of a friend recently was in Naples. On her return she was stopped by security who demanded that she either forfeit her Italian marmalade (which, by the way, is very good) or she should check it in. They said it was a banned substance - a liquid. Some basic understanding of science is clearly not part of the Italian school curriculum. Marmalade can be liquid if heated at a very high temperature.

Another friend of a friend had a similar experience at Heathrow. He, like me, is a pork pie addict. He had been to Fortnum and Mason's (a very fine and extremely expensive food hall) and bought six pork pies. These too were not allowed through security. Clearly not a liquid, the security people used some other reason for confiscating these at the security check point. (I think they felt pork would be offensive to Muslims and may therefore incite rioting and violence on the flight).

A colleaguse coming through Frankfurt had ink capsules for his fountain pen confiscated while another colleague coming through Oslo had difficulty persuading the security people that his deodorant stick (a solid one) was not in fact a liquid.

My conclusion. This is all getting out of hand, Terrorists must have good taste if they like pork pies and marmalade and take care of their appearance and use fountain pens.

Travel really is getting very degrading.

Arts Cuts

Take a look at the YouTube video in the links above (click on the title for this post). Its about cuts in the Arts funding from the Government of Canada - fun and very clever.

 

See, this is how we Brits think!

Obama versus McCain and Then Canada...

So I return to the question of Obama-Biden versus John McCain and as yet unknown VP nominee. While I have little time for McCain, I suspect he will win in November.

Why? Four reasons. First, Obama is sounding “empty” – gone are the focused, intelligent, imaginative speeches and they have been replaced with rambles. Less is more. Second, not only is the speechifying weaker, the content now needs to be more specific – not just why we need change but what specifically the changes will be and what is different about them from what McCain will propose. Third, I think Biden is a poor choice and will be outmatched by McCain’s choice next week. Finally, I genuinely doubt whether America is ready for a black President.

So this is McCain’s race to lose. And he might just do that. There is a Bob Dole quality about him – genuine sort of guy who has worked hard for years in the Senate and done good things, war hero and all that, but, well dull. No big communicator – not like the “Gipper”. Plus he is disconnected from the challenges facing “ordinary” people, as became clear last week. He has to be careful he doesn’t go over board with the strategy that Obama isn’t really an American or that Obama and Osama are, well, related! His biggest threat is whatever George Bush does between now and the election.

Speaking of elections, it will be interesting to see what happens here in Canada. Our Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, is touting the idea of an election in September and the press have taken the bait big time. He is trying to ensure that he can in fact manage the agenda in the House for at least 6-9 months – so I (and colleagues with connections) don’t think there will be an election in Canada in September. That’s not to say it isn’t time for one – it probably is – just that one is unlikely. Read the current activity as a way to make the Liberal Leader Mr Dion look, well, as he is, a dithering load of puff.

Global Warming Causes a Hole in My Sock

I have a hole in my sock. Its not a large hole, but it will become one if it isn’t darned soon (does anyone else still darn socks?).

I blame global warming. My sock is made of wool. The wool probably comes from Australia, since the socks are Australian and have an Aussie pattern on them. Australia, especially South Australia, is suffering from drought. Drought is affecting the grazing grounds for sheep and this in turn affects their health. A sheep’s health determines the quality of both lamb and mutton and the wool that sheep produce. Poor wool quality leads to poor sock quality. Thus the hole in my sock is a result of global warming.

Not really – but this is the logic people are using when suggesting that this or that phenomenon is occurring as a result of global warming, even though the number of intervening variables are considerable and the interaction between them complex.
So the idea that the polar bears are dying out (which is simply not true) and that this is due to global warming is based on my hole in the sock logic.

Darn it, literally.

Obama Oh-dear

So it is the democratic party convention. Obama and Biden will be crowned. Hillary and Bill will have their moment. It will be a decent week for Obama.

But it is not looking good. Clinton supporters are still unhappy and still show dissent and the campaign is beginning to dull the senses. While McCain is not doing well - how many houses? - he is doing better than Obama.

So I suspect that Obama is going to come second in this race, He will do so because, as McCain says, he's a mile high and an inch deep. He is inspiring and imaginative.But not solid enough to stay the course. Close, but silver medals don't count.

Wind in the Willows?

Wind-generated energy is presented as one of most environmentally beneficial sources of renewable energy. Germany remains the world leader in wind power capacity, with almost 24 percent of the global total (22,247 megawatts), but it experienced a lackluster year in 2007. Still, renewable energy resources now generate more than 14 percent of Germany’s electricity needs, with about half of this coming from wind.

Spain led Europe in new installations in 2007, now ranking third worldwide in total wind capacity (15,145 megawatts). France, Italy, Portugal, and the United Kingdom all experienced significant growth last year as well. In all, EU wind power capacity rose 18 percent in 2007, and the region is home to 60 percent of global installed capacity.

China was the biggest surprise in 2007. Barely in the wind business three years ago, China trailed only the United States and Spain in new wind installations in 2007, and ranked fifth in total installed capacity (6,050 megawatts). However, an estimated one-fourth of this capacity remains unconnected to the grid due to planning problems.

The global wind market was worth an estimated $36 billion in 2007, accounting for almost half of all investment in new renewable electric and heating capacity. Such strong demand is creating these industry trends:

Competition among wind turbine OEMs is rapidly intensifying as growth extends to new regions, encouraging start-ups of new manufacturers while pushing leading suppliers to expand their sales and production globally.

Turbine prices, and the costs of installation, have trended upward over the last four years after nearly a decade of cost reductions per megawatt of nameplate capacity. The global market’s boom in demand has clearly shifted the industry from a buyer’s to a seller’s market in the past three years, with corresponding price increases.

Multiple players moving on 2 MW and above segment: Vestas and Enercon— pioneers in 2 MW and larger turbines—are aiming to protect their share of this market. However, multiple proven machines from Gamesa, Siemens, Suzlon/REpower, Alstom/Ecotecnia and others are providing buyers more options.

Component suppliers face new challenges to keep pace with turbine demand, calling for major production capacity investments in the multi-megawatt segment, as well as a focus on local supply in booming new markets while keeping costs competitive.

Installed capacity in Canada (as of January 2008) was app. 1.856 megawatts, with at least another 700 MW of capacity expected to come online by the end of the year. Wind energy currently accounts for 0.8% of Canada's domestic electricity supply. Alberta currently has the largest installed capacity of any Province in Canada with 523 MW (28% of Canada’s installed capacity).

The development of renewable capacity is strongly supported by the Canadian public. In an Angus Reid Strategies report in October 2007, 89 per cent of respondents said that using renewable energy sources like wind or solar power was positive for Canada, because these sources were better for the environment. Only 4 per cent considered using renewable sources as negative since they can be unreliable and expensive.
However, according to the Heartland Institute, the costs of wind-powered energy far outweigh the benefits.

At the risk of stating the obvious, wind power is only available when the wind is blowing; when it stops, so does the power. So as to compensate for unreliability, stand by conventional power has to be available to “kick in” when the wind drops. This results in CO2 emissions without balancing energy outputs and a more unreliable grid – as both Germany and Denmark report.

Installed capacity is one measure. The more important one is energy utilization. The average output of a wind turbine is app. One quarter of its capacity. In Denmark, where wind power represents 20% of installed capacity, wind turbines generate just 6% of the power Denmark consumed in 2004. What is more, not all of this power could be used in Denmark – it had to export it to Norway at a loss. Also, since the wind blew at times different from peak demand, Denmark also found itself importing electricity from other jurisdictions at premium prices.

The trick, yet to be found, is storing power from wind turbines so that it can be available when needed and we can reduce the need for “firming” wind based systems with conventional power production. We do not yet have effective storage systems for the kind of capacity wind turbines can produce when they are functioning well – when this storage technology arrives, much more economies of scale may be possible. However, this will require additional investments to upgrade currently installed capacity and new investment models for all new wind farm construction.

To produce the same amount of energy as a conventional power plant, wind farms need 85 times more land area.

Wind farms produce both noise pollution and sight pollution, emitting blinding strobe-light sensations at dawn and dusk, and nearly constant noise pollution.

Wind power costs twice as much as electricity produced by traditional fossil fuels. A 2004 study in the UK showed that wind power (including the cost of stand by generation) cost 5.4 pence (10 cents Canadian app.) per kw hour versus 2.2 (4 cents) from natural gas, 2.5p from coal and 2.3p from nuclear. Offshore wind power cost 7.2pp. A lot of these real costs are masked by deep Government subsidies. This translates into significant costs - £90 per MW hour versus £45 for “normal” power sources.

Government subsidies for wind power are the only mechanism to ensure viability . In the UK, each turbine earns its owners £400,000 (app $800,000 Canadian) of which £200,000 comes from power sold to the grid and £200,000 from subsidies. In some jurisdictions, subsidies are worth more to the owner than the revenue from power sold to the grid.

Also, critics ask, where is the environmentalist lobby's well-known concern for animal life? The US Department of Energy plans to build 132,000 new wind turbines by 2020. By conservative estimates, the new turbines would kill between 12 million and 15 million birds.

Environmentalists ignore the clear and certain costs of wind-powered energy: higher cost and lost efficiency, increased land development, noise and light pollution and bird deaths. They are also not keen to systematically look at the economics of wind power or the CO2 output from stand-by firming power generators which use gas or coal.

Grr Wuff!

 

So here is a City Council worker with a sense of humour. I wonder if dogs appreciate the message?

The Challenge of Zimbabwe

The rate of inflation in Zimbabwe jumped to just over 11,250,000% in June, official figures show. It gained 9,035,045.5 percentage points from the May rate of 2,233,713.4%," according to the Central Statistical Office (CSO). Many experts believe the actual rate of inflation may be much higher. Zimbabwe is in the midst of a dire economic crisis with unemployment at almost 80%, most manufacturing at a halt and basic foods in short supply.

Zimbabwe, once one of the richest countries in Africa, has descended into economic chaos largely because of the policies of President Mugabe. Mr. Mugabe has denied he is ruining the economy, laying the blame instead on international sanctions he says have been imposed against Zimbabwe. In particular, he blames Britain and claims that the secret intent of the UK Government is to return to colonialism. This at a time when independence for Scotland is looking more likely and when the UK’s role on the global stage is minuscule.

Meantime, there is no deal between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the MDC opposition and Mr. Mugabe to form some sort of Government of National Unity, to steer Zimbabwe out of the crisis. Mugabe refuses to give up executive powers, which is a preconditioning for power sharing. While the MDC is willing to share cabinet positions with Zanu-PF, Tsvangirai insists on being the executive head of the Government as Prime Minister. Quite right too.

So now we wait. Wait until someone changes their stance or Mr. Mugabe cuts a deal with a breakaway faction, which he is threatening to do. He will do anything to stay in power. What is difficult about all this is to watch ordinary people suffer while a very proud man seeks to feather his nest and protect himself from charges of war crimes.

Obesity Police

Obesity is a serious problem and can cause all sorts of complications - it is due to a combination of diet, genetics and exercise. A lot of work is taking place to change the behaviour of individuals by helping them understand at a personal level what they should/shouldn't eat and how they should eat it. I am not confident that this will make much difference = there are other (corporate) interests at stake.

Britain is considering going one step further. There is a serious discussion about giving social workers the right to remove obese children from the home in which they are living with their patent or parent.

Talk about fascism !

No News Day

I am old enough to remember as a child when TV shut down for a while - not enough programs. I also remember, but am unable to verify, occasions when the BBC said "there is no news today, instead we will listen to some music...".

This persists today. Despite many 24 hour news channels and a plethora of newspapers and blogs, there is in fact very little news. That is, news that changes something in a significant way for a lot of people.

So scarce is news that we have to make it up. There are now so many celebrities (most of whom, I have never heard of) who have they behaviours and speech headlined every day. Who cares that Amie Winehouse bummed at a concert or that Paris Hilton is not wearing panties.

On CNN right now there are several segments devoted to the question Who and When Will Barrack Obama Choose as His Running Mate? Note that he has not announced one, has not released a short list and doesn't have to name anyone till next week, but at least this is filling air time.

Occassionally there is some news - the Prime Minister actually calls an election (that he is thinking of do so i not news), the Queen dies, Musharif resigns, George Bush says something very intelligent, Gordon Brown actually wins a by-election. But most of what we count as news actually is air fluff.

So I suggest we go back to the old world and, whenever we can, say "there is no news today and we have decided not to make a load of "news" up, so here is some music." Wouldn't that be refreshing!

Environmentalists- The New Liberal Fascists?

Mussolini and Hitler were socialists. For many years before World War II, Mussolini governed Italy in the name of a left agenda and was seeking to dismantle various aspects of capitalism – moving more organizations and economic sectors into state control. Both secured significant and substantial popular support – not only were they leading socialist party’s they were also leading populist parties. They were also nationalists – passionate about their national identity and evoking such an identity at every opportunity – something every American President has done.

The new fascists are also socialists and populists. We call them environmentalists: they seek state control and intervention in key aspects of daily life, seek to control the work of corporations, to use state means to manage core economic sectors and subvert science to support their cause. They are also seeking to redistribute wealth (the fundamental purpose of Kyoto Accord was to redistribute wealth) and to manage economic development and growth. Critically: they understand that the State has to control the behavior of individuals, groups and organizations if the good of the greater number is to triumph over the free market. Since fascism is defined as the religion of the state – environmentalist solutions to global warming are

Like their fascist predecessors, the new fascists are intolerant of opposition – branding global warming skeptics as equivalent to holocaust deniers and seeking intimidation (subtle though this may be) to silence opposition. Occasionally, they have also resorted to modest forms of violent protest to stop those who legitimately oppose the environmental orthodoxy from having their voices heard.

Just as the old fascists subverted science in support of eugenics and anti-Semitism (at least in the case of German fascists), so the modern fascists have subverted science to support an unsupportable theory of global warming as something linked to CO2. Claiming a global scientific consensus (which is also what was claimed for eugenics) which does not in fact exist, there is no real intimidation and resource denial for those seeking to study in depth alternatives to the political orthodoxy. Large research funds are allocated in support of the politically correct theory of global warming and large scale media resources are deployed to obfuscate the issue. Prizes (like the Oscar and Nobel prizes) are awarded to icons of the new fascism who distort known facts.

Propaganda, a hallmark of fascism in Italy and Germany, is alive and well and pursued in favour of a fascists environmental agenda. Guilt for using non-renewable energy, seeking to create a popular anti-capitalist CO2 movement and softening up the public to accept substantive state control are hallmarks of this socialist propaganda.

This short piece is likely to upset some people. But they should consider very carefully how the term “fascist” is being defined. They also may wish to read the book Liberal Fascism.

Looks to me lik a classic case of someone missing the point. At least one of these creatures knows what it's doing.

Thunder and Lightening

What impact is global warming having on the frequency and intensity of tornadoes?

If you read a range of newspapers you may be convinced that these two things - warming and tornadoes - are strongly linked.  Yet there is no convincing scientific evidence that this is the case. This despite the fact that Al Gore included this claim in his Nobel prize / Oscar winning movie - just another unfounded assertion.

The New Scientist reviewed the research and, while thunder storms show some association, they conclude that there is no current evidence. So, the answer is NO (for now). 

My Home Town

A new think tank report suggests that my home town - Bradford in West Yorkshire - is beyond redemption and that its population would be well advised to move out and go to Oxford, London or Cambridge. The same is also said about Sunderland. At the heart of the argument is the assumption that the various attempts to stimulate development through regeneration projects have failed.

Bradford is a poor place to be. When we returned to live and work in Yorkshire in 1998 we chose to live in Harrogate. We looked at Bradford, but soon were despairing. Both Lynne ("she who must be obeyed" a.k.a. "her indoors") and I were born and brought up in Bradford and were saddened by the state it had got itself to. Leeds, just a few miles away, was vibrant and growing. Bradford seemed to be in  serious decline.

However, the report is a little barmy. The thesis is that we are living in a knowledge economy - people in the right mind should want to live in the heart or hinterland of a knowledge powerhouse - this means (to the authors) Oxford, Cambridge or London. What bollocks (a technical term meaning "arrant nonsense").  Leeds is a vibrant research centre just 11 mies from Bradford. The Dales are a tourist mecca and Bradford is close to the centre of the UK.

While current regeneration projects may be less effective than intended, this does not imply that other interventions cannot make a difference.

If we can consider the reconstruction of Afghanistan, then the ongoing development of Bradford cannot be that much of a challenge.

David Cameron, the Tory leader, has quickly dismissed the report. Lets hope everyone else follows suite.

Just a thought..

eARTh

Art, or more accurately the ARTS, are essential components of modern life. WIthout  the ARTS we have very little in the way of imaginative activity to give meaning. Its the Fringe Festival here in Edmonton. Support the ARTS.

Lost Leader

Gordon Brown has no luck. He will now need to call another by-election in a Scottish constituency - the one next door to his own. A Labour colleague, who had a majority of just over 10,000, just died following a long battle with cancer. He could well find himself under real pressure when Labour looses this seat, just it lost in Glasgow.

Its looking more and more serous for Labour. They are covering up their leadership crisis and hoping that they can muddle through. They won't. Its like lemmings marching in unison towards the cliff edge. Leaderless and in denial, the party struggles with its identity and its role.

The Spectator's Fraser Nelson wrote a piece (see the 2nd August edition) suggesting that Labour could be in the wilderness for a very long time, replaced by the Liberal Democrats as the second part. He notes strong parallels with the collapse of the Liberal Party - once the natural party for government. Lets hope he is wrong - there are good people with serious intent inside the party.

But "new" labour has failed. Its social investments haven't led to the kind of change they promised and the party itself is both rudderless ands broke. Its time for a radical change within the party and a change of its social policies.

This is Exactly What It Seems

 
Language skills are not at their best amongst sign writers in Dubai.

Not What You May Think!

 
Sometimes the images you stumble across give meaning to your day. And sometimes, they are just very funny or fun...

Canada's Military Casualties

Canada has now lost 90 soldiers and 1 senior diplomat in the NATO operations in Afghanistan. Each time this occurs, its headline news and all our news networks show ceremonies commemorating the soldiers service. And so they should. They died doing the right thing and trying to make a difference and to prevent a nation returning to servitude. We need to see each death as an opportunity to recommit to the mission – make Afghanistan safe so that reconstruction can take place for one of the poorest countries in the world.

But there is something else going on – something I am finding difficult. It’s the idea that this level of deaths is unacceptable and against the post second world war role of Canada in the world. It is almost like suggesting that no Canadian solider should ever die while serving their country.

So lets get things in perspective. When Canadian troops were involved in action in World War I in such battles as Passchendaele (the subject of a powerful new film), we lost this number of soldiers every few minutes. In fact, death of allied soldiers was 2 persons killed for every inch of ground gained – a total of 140,000. Canada took the Belgian town in November 1917, led by Sir Arthur William Currie.

In World War II, Canada lost a lot of soldiers in World War II – 45,000 in all, with an additional 54,000 wounded. On June 6, 1944, the 3rd Canadian Division landed on Juno Beach in the Battle of Normandy and sustained 50% casualties in their first hour of attack. By the end of D-Day, the Canadians had penetrated deeper into France than either the British or the American troops at their landing sites, overcoming stronger resistance than any of the other beachheads except Omaha Beach. 5,300 Canadians died trying to liberate Italy.

In the Korean War . some eleven army officers, 298 other ranks and 3 sailors fell in action. Fifty-nine officers and 1143 other ranks were wounded or injured. By all accounts, the Canadians performed exceptionally.

Since the end of the War many Canadians think that we have focused entirely on peace-keeping and that we are the leading peace keeping nation in the world. In part this is because we did well in the first Gulf War (1991), though we did have just 2,000 troops involved. Also, we did focus on peace keeping – often a dangerous activity. In the Balkans alone Canada suffered 11 fatalities and 102 wounded.

Canada is engaged in Afghanistan because it is the right thing to do. The Taliban were brital and repressive – beheading teachers if women were in the class, stoning people and generally pursuing an agenda unacceptable in the modern world. If we are not willing to intervene, to risk to defend human rights, then we should not have pretentions about being a world power and influential nation.

We dishonour our troops by decrying the mission in Afghanistan. Its now fashionable to think that war is wrong and peacekeeping is about diplomacy – it worked well in Zimbabwe didn’t it!

We need to think carefully before committing troops – it’s the most awful decision a Prime Minister can make (and this one was made originally by a Liberal Prime Minister). It is part of the burden of power. But once we have made this decision – it was the right thing to do and it remains the right thing to be doing – we should do all we can to minimise casualties but accept that it is part of the commitment we are making.

Honour those who have fallen. Honour those who continue to defend and build a new society in Afghanistan. Honour the mission, Accept that casualties will occur and don’t pretend that all situations can be solved by talk. They can’t.

Paulmartinitis

There is a new psychological syndrome which has strong Canadian roots: paulmartinitis. It occurs when national finance Ministers become convinced that they need to lead the country and spend years plotting to do so, only to find on securing the top job that they are not capable of it. While Paul Martin is one Canadian example of this, he is not the only one – several national leaders around the world can be seen to be suffering from the syndrome. It also turns out that he may have “caught” some elements of this syndrome from John Turner and other elements from Jim Callaghan of Britain who was, looking back, also a carrier of the syndrome and suffered its consequence – humiliation at the hands of the electorate.

In the current political world, the Prime Minister of Britain, Gordon Brown, is clearly experiencing the full blown symptoms of this syndrome – political onslaught from all sides within their own party, arrogance, denial of reality, stumbling through several attempts to relaunch themselves and alienation from the electorate. Those around him are showing the usual signs of self-deception and undue loyality. His days are numbered.

There are three features of this syndrome which are worthy of note. First, the individual themselves remain convinced until the day they loose office that they are “the right person for the job” or, as Margaret Thatcher used to say “there is no alternative”. Further, the more obvious it becomes that this is not the case, the more vehement they are in asserting their inherent right to office. Paul Martin’s final election campaign contained so much vitriolic self-serving rhetoric that it would have been possible to provide sufficient hot air to fuel a round the world balloon race.

Second, those around the person suffering from this syndrome become so obsessed by the fear of failure. This in turn leads them to assert that there is no alternative to the Prime Minister. Harriet Harman, the Deputy Prime Minister of Britain and Jack Straw the Justice Minister and many others are demonstrating this feature at the moment with respect to Gordon Brown –in doing so, failing to mask their own underlying ambitions.

Third, and most important, the impact of the syndrome with respect to the work that Government is supposed to do and its impact on the electorate seems not to be a consideration for those seeking to treat the syndrome by removing the underlying cause – an ineffective Prime Minister. Fear of loss of political patronage, loss of personal position and loss of power by the party override concerns about health care, housing, food prices or the environment. So much time and attention is spent managing the syndrome and its effects that there is little time left to do the real work of government.

In the end, the only known cure for this syndrome is called a ballot. This is a complex procedure, used rarely because the risk of real career-threatening consequences are known to be high, and involves the electorate assessing the extent of damage the syndrome is doing to the country and themselves. In the case of Paul Martin, it lead to the collapse of the Liberal Party, which remains in the doldrums and not seen as yet ready for Government by many, especially those who remember Paul Martin. In Britain, it will lead to the collapse of the “New” Labour Party as we know it and the exile from public life for a period of time of Gordon Brown.

Other interventions have been tried by pioneering political surgeons – an internal party coup being one example of this. Margaret Thatcher fell because of just such a move made by Geoffrey Howe. A second intervention is to create the conditions for a scandal which will force the suffering Prime Minister to leave office. To be fair, the idea of Gordon Brown being involved in a sex scandal is, well, simply beyond belief.

As with all addictions, there is only one route that can avoid risky ballot surgery. It begins with the sufferer themselves admitting that they are not up to the position and seeking help. Former Finance Ministers Anonymous (FMA) recommends that the sufferer begins each day by chanting “I am not worthy” several times and, after a few days of this, resigning from office with the excuse of an illness. This is the first step to recovery. The second step is to find work that they can actually do, preferably out of politics – as did John Turner (eventually). I am sure that Gordon Brown’s own friends and private advisers are working on this particular cure strategy behind the scenes. We should wish them good luck.

Meantime, those around the sufferer and their public suffer. They can take relief by reading about Prime Ministers who are incompetent in other countries and saying “its not just us then” or by buying lottery tickets and hoping they will win enough to be able to leave the country - as many Brits already are

Canada and an Election

There is much speculation about Canada facing a fall election. The rationale goes something like this:

1. Harper was elected with a minority and has governed much longer than anticipated by the party - they need a fresh mandate and need to smarten up, an election will do it.

2. Dion wants an election mainly to settle internal party rumblings about his leadership, which sees him essentially not making progress and likely to lose an election. By having one, they can have a leadership convention or race.

3, No one in Canada other than journalists or politicians wants an election, since we have realized in the last24 months that the Federal government doesn't matter much at all ("it doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always gets it).

4. The country is involved in an unpopular military/humanitarian campaign in Afghanistan as part of NATO. People appear upset that the military are losing people in battle. We're close to the 100 person mark after several years - about the same that was lost in 8 minutes of fighting in World War 1 or 10 minutes in the Italian campaign in World War 2. Apart from this, there is nothing significant to talk about.

5. Some people think that climate change is the issue for the election - Dion is trying to make it so. Trouble is he can't proununce "Green Shift" - his name for the challenge to the Tories - when he says it, it sounds like Climate Shit (which is about right).

6. Ontario will be key. Here it seems that the Liberals are playing quiet in exchange for cash - $6 billion so far - to help them cope with their failing economy. Watch for the Ontario Liberals supporting Harper at the next election.

7. Quebec is confused (no change there). Harper has done everything he can to give away Federalism in the hope of a Tory breakthrough in the Province - its not happening. The Block is on the block and the Alliance cant get anyone to talk to.

So, we could go to the polls to confirm the status quo. It will help bankrupt the Liberals, cause a leadership race and lead to a lot of interesting newspaper content. It could also mean the end for Harper - if he fails to get a majority, his party may look for someone else - someone with a personality and maybe an ability to inspire,

Meantime, keep an eye on Bob Rae - the man to watch for the Liberals. As for the Conservatives, well Peter Mac or, or, eh,,well anyone but Stockwell Day!

The Mugabe Problem

Robert Mugabe will be elected President of Zimbabwe by default now that Morgan Tsvangirai has determined that he cannot compete in an election which is undemocratic and shaped by murder, rape and starvation.

The fact that Mugabe can remain in office is a testament to the weakness of the United Nations and the failure of the modern world to cope with a dictator who does not hesitate to use any means at his disposal to stay in power. Sanctions, which have been in force for some time, are not working. Mugabe has no concerns that his people are starving and being forced to leave the country. He has no concerns that his country is an economic basket case, despite being blessed with superb farming conditions and a great many natural resources.

Armed intervention aimed at regime change is the only unequivocal answer to this situation. Yet the war in Iraq and the struggle with the Taliban in Afghanistan have soured the appetitive for such action amongst the liberal democracies of the world. Britain, Canada and the US are at troop critical levels and could only make token contributions to an armed intervention. Other democracies – Germany, Spain, Italy and France in particular – appear hesitant to engage in combat in foreign lands unless their own sovereignty is directly threatened.

Most disturbing has been the response of the African states, especially South Africa. Mbeki, President of South Africa, has a personal debt to Mugabe – the latter paid for Mbeki to receive his education. But this is not an excuse for pretending that Mugabe is a hero and a liberator when he is clearly a despot. The Mugabe of today bears no relation to the liberation leader Mbeki once admired. There is nothing colonial or racist about wishing the end of a dictator who has destroyed his country and inflicted misery on his people and intends to continue to do so.

In the last few days some African leaders have made clear that a Presidential election could no longer be regarded as free and fair. In particular, Nelson Mendella’s coded message this week is helpful. There was also a move to bring about a coalition government, based on a commitment that no war crimes prosecution would follow and that no charges would ever be pursued against Mugabe, including those relating to the murder of a large number of Matabelie since he came to power. Mugabe rejected this option, making clear that only God could remove him from office. He may still be forced to negotiate, but don’t hold your breath waiting for change.
If a military response is not possible, then there are three things that need to happen. First, the world should refuse to recognize the outcome of the Presidential “run off” election and only accept the result of the first ballot and declare that Morgan Tsvangiari is the elected President of Zimbabwe.

Second, the United Nations and the African states should work for the creation of a coalition government and use the effective veto of refusing to supply the essential electricity from South Africa to Zimbabwe until the country agrees. This will require a pardon for Mugabe and all of those currently in power, but it may be sufficient to force change. Replacing the existing government with the opposition is not likely to be effective – one of the lessons of Iraq. Balancing some of the more moderate members of Zanu PF and the skills of the MDC is what is needed. It may take an African peace keeping force to enable this to happen.

Third, there needs to be a massive response from the world community to rebuilding of the Zimbabwe economy. It has rich farm land and substantial resources – farming needs to be pursued with vigour and the infrastructure needs to be rebuilt. Only when it is will the three million or more exiles begin to return to work for the future of the country. The security and development of the region as a whole depends on this effort.

None of this is likely to happen. Once Mugabe confirms himself in power, he will work for the elimination of all opposition by whatever means he deems appropriate. He will refuse to permit any return of foreign aid organizations to the country, since he blames them for enabling the opposition to flourish. The country will fall into further decline and the need for a military intervention and regime change will become more and more obvious each day that passes.

What the world is likely to do is precisely what it has done for the last five years – nothing. What ever happened to our concern for human rights?

Published by the Edmonton Journal, July 2008