Condi Rice

The US Secretary of State is, in my view, a very attractive woman. She is also well educated, an accomplished pianist and a skilled manipulator of public opinion. She will have a great career, once she leaves the White House.

But she is not a great Secretary of State. Why? First, she is deceitful. Throughout 2002 and early 2003, Rice repeatedly insisted that the Administration sought a peaceful solution to the Iraq conflict and that war was only a last resort. In October of 2002, she said, “We're going to seek a peaceful solution to this. We think that one is possible” [CBS, 10/20/02]. Then in November of 2002, she said, “We all want very much to see this resolved in a peaceful way” [Briefing, 11/21/02]. In March of 2003, she claimed “we are still in a diplomatic phase here” [ABC, 3/9/03]. However, according to Richard Haas, Bush’s director of policy planning at the State Department, the decision had already been made by July of 2002. When asked exactly when he learned war in Iraq was definite, Haas said, “The moment was the first week of July (2002), when I had a meeting with Condi. I raised this issue about were we really sure that we wanted to put Iraq front and center at this point, given the war on terrorism and other issues. And she said, essentially, that that decision's been made, don't waste your breath. And that was early July. So then when Powell had his famous dinner with the President, in early August, 2002 [in which Powell persuaded Bush to take the question to the U.N.] the agenda was not whether Iraq, but how” [New Yorker, 3/31/03].

On May 16th, 2002, Rice said “I don't think anybody could have predicted that these people would take an airplane and slam it into the World Trade Center, take another one and slam it into the Pentagon. [No one predicted] that they would try to use an airplane as a missile, a hijacked airplane as a missile,"[CBS News, 5/17/02]. But according to the bipartisan 9/11 commission report, “intelligence reports from December 1998 until the attacks said followers of bin Laden were planning to strike U.S. targets, hijack U.S. planes, and two individuals had successfully evaded checkpoints in a dry run at a New York airport,” [Reuters, 7/24/03]. More specifically, “White House officials acknowledged that U.S. intelligence officials informed President Bush weeks before the Sept. 11 attacks that bin Laden's terrorist network might try to hijack American planes.” [ABC News, 5/16/03].

Second, she is not imaginative. This is what David Plotz said in Slate magazine: “Rice is allowed to overshadow Bush because she is exotic: a black, female, conservative foreign policy expert. She stands out in Bush's army of white men, proves that his campaign is not just about good ol' boys. But her celebrity obscures how unexceptional she is. Her ideas, work, and style place her in the absolute mainstream of Republican thought. She is Brent Scowcroft in the body of a black woman.”

Take her stand on the middle east – what is it? Does anyone know. Here we are in the middle of a meltdown – Israel behaving like a colonial, apartheid power and the Palestinians are falling apart. Where is a creative response – not from Condi.

The fact that there is a close personal friendship between Bush and Rice is also of concern – while it’s good to “get on” with the boss, friendship should not limit the directness and honesty of analysis, especially in this position.

She is a weak Secretary of State who, when she chooses to be, is very sexy. Well, at least this makes a change.

Come Fly with Me = I Think Not..

The standard joke about Air Canada is this: “What’s the new Air Canada vision statement? Simple – “we’re not happy till you’re not happy!”. It would be funny if it were not true.

Air Canada went into bankruptcy protection for a variety of reasons. The key was poor management, more specifically an unwillingness to engage in a real competitive market and fundamentally re-engineer the business. While the airline industry is a complex and very capital intensive, Air Canada had built a strong reputation for service, quality and performance. It lost this by not nurturing its staff, not managing its costs and not engaging its customers in its future.

To get out of bankruptcy, it has done three things. First, forced its staff to reduce their incomes and, by doing so, reduced morale. Second, they have transferred resources from the company to investors – one estimate is that they will have transferred some $2 billion by the time current labour agreements expire in 2009. Second, they have reduced service levels and service quality in a variety of ways, including route changes such as the recent cancellation of their daily flights to India and by no longer serving economy meals as part of the fare on medium haul flights. While Air Canada has been voted North America’s best airline, this is nothing in particular to be proud of. Most North American airlines are poor – being the best of a bad lot is nothing much to be proud of. Third, they have restructured the company so that it can focus on managing assets rather than managing service – it is essentially a leasing, capacity management company that “happens” to fly cargo and people.

All of this will come home to roost in 2009. By this time, the airline will continue to be struggling to secure profitability and return for shareholders, union agreements will be in negotiation and competition from West Jet, Porter and others will have grown on some routes. In addition, there will be additional costs due to the various climate change initiatives various governments around the world will impose on airlines. It will get tougher, not easier, to run the airline.

What might change this picture? The key is competition. Canada needs to create stronger opportunities for others to enter and stay in this market and for others to see this market as an opportunity. This may include making it easier to increase levels of foreign ownership and foreign competition, creating incentives for a more competitive market and phasing in “climate change” costs rather than hitting the airlines hard upfront.

Second, there needs to be a commitment to rebuilding staff morale. The most reliable and strongest predictor of profitability in any service business is staff morale. A variety of studies show that an improvement of 5% in staff morale will increase profitability by 1% in less than three months. According to the staff I speak to, morale is at an all time low. This shows itself in a variety of ways, not least in terms of basic service. Some staff already are outstanding, but the rewards and recognition are not there for the majority. It shows.

Third – on some routes, become more like a European low cost airline than a behemoth. For example, I am flying from London to Pisa (Italy) in June for $150 return – including taxes. They do this as a reward for people who plan their travel in advance – the normal fare on this route is $470. On some flights on some days, you fly by just paying the taxes. In contrast, I am flying Edmonton to Lethbridge in March and the cost is $408. Both are three hour flights. I have heard all sorts of reasons as to why Air Canada and Jazz cannot use Ryanair as a model, but I don’t buy the argument. Ryanair posted record half-year profits of €329 ($500) million for the six months ending 30 September 2006. Over the same period passenger traffic grew by more than a fifth to 22.1m passengers and revenues rose by a third to €1.256 ($1.921) billion. Ryanair even made an unsuccessful bid to buy Aer Lingus. Though frequently voted the world’s “least favourite” airline, its continued route expansion and its modern fleet are all part of its attraction. Despite complaining, passenger volumes on this airline grow an average of 10% a year and have done so for a decade. Air Canada (excluding the regional Jazz airline) said its operating loss for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year was $5 million, an improvement from the $91 million it lost in the same quarter a year earlier.

Will Air Canada improve? Not until after the current leadership team leaves, which is likely before the next round of union negotiations. Will anyone care – the staff do. They care a lot about their airline, but know that it is pointless to challenge – no one is listening. Passengers care too – we pay for poor service, late arrivals, cancellations and poor morale. Eventually, investors will care when the airline again finds itself struggling to make ends meet.

The Next President of the United States

Barak Obama is running for President in the US. He wont win. Why? He’s too energetic, young, inexperienced and black. Despite the fact that Oprah will back him (with words and dollars), he wont be the nominee. What he will get is the VP nomination on the Edwards ticket – and this will be the ticket on the ballot. What about Hilary you ask. Good question. She will not make the ballot. Powerful, experienced a little (plus 2 for 1 deal with Bill – vote for me get 2 Presidents) and wealthy, she will not make it because she is female, cold and doesn’t have a policy platform.

I bet a friend the other day $100 cash (Canadian) that Giuliani will be the Republican nominee. McCain is so closely identified with the Iraq war push strategy that will have failed by the time the convention is held that he will not recover. He is also old. Other republican candidates are “ah who”..so my bet goes there. My friend was horrified – she is a US lawyer living here. She knows about Rudolph.

As to who will win, don’t write off the Republicans just because of Bush. He is a dim-wit. A real big honking dim-wit – makes Schwarzenegger look intelligent. But all families have them. When the religious right get going, there question will be who is the most evangelic Christian – its not a party thing, but the answer historically has been republican. With Giuliani – soft on abortion, soft on gays and gay union and a divorcee – it may open up a little, but old loyalties die hard. It will be close. My money is on Edwards to beat Giuliani.

Ian Richardson

Ian Richardson, consummate actor and face of the television political drama following his performance as Francis Urquhart is the TV series The House of Cards, has died. A classic Shakespearean actor, his career spanned four and a half decades. For me his key performance came in Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy – he played a laconic Bill Haydon in this Le Carre thriller. I cannot read this without seeing him do this part. But in House of Cards as Chief Whip and later as Prime Minister he excelled. Simply magnificent performances that caught the mood and spirit of the time and still resonate today. He played many parts – an excellent Bishop, a brilliant Sherlock Holmes. He also played Montgommery in Ike – a part he captured well. He will be sadly missed.

Gordon Ramsey

Chef Gordon Ramsey is Britain’s leading Michelin 3 star chef. A character. A bombast. A superb chef. Our family is interested in Gordon. We have all read his biography, watched several of his UK and US TV shows – Ramsey’s Kitchen Nightmares, Hell’s Kitchen, Boiling Point, The F-Word – and loved them. I really like his campaign to get women cooking again and his commitment to wholesome cooking. His favourite cook is Nigel Slater – simple, honest cooking. He trained with Marco Pierre White, worked in France for a year, was chef to the Australian media magnate Grundy and has spent his life dedicated to cuisine. What is most important, though, is his brutal directness. Many don’t like him because he is very aggressive – but his experience tells him that this is what it takes to get the best out of people and consistency day in day out. He runs several UK restaurants and now has eateries in the US and Dubai. Gordon Ramsey holdings is a multi million dollar company built on the back of this Glasgow lads grind. He deserves all he has. If you get the chance, go onto UK Torrent and download and watch the F-Word. Its great television, lively, fun and informative. Probably the best cooking show on television in the world – makes Rachel Ray look like a puffed up shrimp.

What the UN IPCC Report Really Said

To read news coverage of the UN Climate Change report released recently, you would not know that the UN has lowered their estimation of climate change and significantly downgraded the risk of impacts. So hysterical has the discussion become, that mere facts are not allowed to get in the way of hyperbole and malfeasance.

So, first, some facts. The differences between the 2001 and 2007 UN climate change reports are stark. The UN has lowered its estimation of the impact of humans on the climate since the industrial revolution by one third. It has reduced its estimate of the impact of global warming on sea levels from a rise of 3 feet to a rise of 17 inches by the end of the current century. While carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising, global atmospheric temperatures are not. Ground temperature rises due to CO2 emissions have also been scaled down significantly. Almost all of the available data reported in the 2007 summary report indicates that the climate is changing at the lower end of the scale of estimates – it is less of a change than many of the UN’s computer models had previously anticipated.

The UN scientific report has not yet been released, though drafts are circulating. What is clear is that there remains major areas of doubt. First, there is a repeated failure on the part of the UN to take full account of known previous periods of warming – notably the middle ages. Second, the language of the release on 2^nd February is purely political. By emphasising the extreme ends of predictions and downplaying the fact that most of the current data shows the earth responding at the low end of the spectrum, the UN is helping to feed the hysteria that now surrounds climate change discussion.

Let us look specifically at the artic. We have been repeatedly told that the artic is getting warmer, that the sea ice is melting at an alarming rate and that polar bears may become extinct. Some facts may help. Artic temperatures undergo periodic fluctuation. During the last 30 years both the artic and Greenland ice sheets have gained thickness – in Greenland at 2 inches per year. In the period 1924-1945 artic temperatures were warmer than they are now by 1 degree Celsius – Polar bears seemed to thrive then as now.

What are we to make of all this? I suggest that there are four things we can make of this. First, it is now impossible to have a serious fact based conversation about these issues. Science and politics have become inextricably mixed to the point at which it is difficult to separate fact from motive. It is a sad day when it is difficult to separate a scientific contribution from a piece of propaganda. The UN’s past exaggeration of the problem – clearly accepted in the 2007 report – and its negligence in presenting very poor data (e.g. the temperature “hockey stick” now universally regarded as inaccurate) are part of this problem.

Second, the convenient “truths” which politicians and public servants are now campaigning on are in fact questionable, yet questioning them is politically difficult to do. There is no doubt that pushing CO2 into the atmosphere is a bad thing and that we ought to reduce it significantly – this is not what is being debated. What is being debated are the impacts of such activity and the consequences of reducing or stopping it. Tony Blair rightly points out that if Britain shut down its economy completely and stopped cars from being driven on its roads, emissions from China would replace Britain’s green house gas emissions within twenty four months. But being a “sceptic” is the modern equivalent of being accused of being a witch.

As a psychologist, a third thing is clear to me. Pushing the “fear and ignorance” button for the general public with the intention of shaping an agenda for change is always a sign of some kind of deceit in play. Ask any Canadian “do you think we should transfer $8billion a year for the next five years to India to help it reduce green house gas emissions?” and the answer will be no. If you point out that this is one way we could meet the Kyoto targets, they are surprised. If you ask “do you think you should pay tax on the car you buy based on its emissions and then pay tax on fuelling your car based on emissions” they will say no. Yet this is a key ingredient of any sound public policy on reducing personal emissions. The environment and climate change may be the current number one political issue in Canada, but the likely solutions and their impact will be vastly unpopular. Only fear and ignorance will make their implementation possible.

The last observation is this. We are about to see a raft of climate change initiatives’ from the Federal and Provincial governments. They will not satisfy the environmentalist and will have only modest effects on green house gas emissions. Part of the reason for this is that the public will not accept the truly radical things that might be needed – tolls on the QEII highway, city tolls for coming downtown in Edmonton and Calgary, added tax on gasoline, carbon taxes of $4 on every barrel of oil produced in the oil sands, new tougher building codes. More significantly, there will be a public backlash against the scientists and environmental lobby (as well as the politicians).

We can’t debate these matters. We have lost the art of listening. We have given up on truth seeking. We are in the hands of the lobbyists.

Virgin Brand

The Virgin Group - Rochard Branson's brand - has decided to move into health care, developing a new range of services starting later this year. If they offer midwifery, will it be branded Virgin Birth?

Blair Bye Bye?

There is a quiet scandal developing in Britain. The Prime Ministers most trusted advisor, Lord Levy, was arrested for a second time last week for the cash for honours scandal – where Blair’s team are accused of securing donations or loans to the Labour Party in exchange for donors being made Lords. Just ten days ago Blair’s executive assistant, Ruth Turner, was arrested in this same inquiry. Several others, including his Chief of Staff, have been questioned under caution. Handwritten notes from Tony Blair have been found which appear to confirm his complicity in the offers and arrangements – a criminal offence, if proven. He has been interviewed twice by the police as a witness, at this stage of their inquiry.

Many may not care that Blair’s team seek to play at the edges of the law to secure cash for a fiscally troubled political party, but one of Blair’s commitments in coming to office was to end the era of sleaze which he said characterised the previous Conservative government. A commitment he did not live up to. It is this mismatch between word and deed that is providing the focus for attention.

He has not lived up to other commitments. For example, despite spending billions more on a public health system and leveraging public: private partnerships for health care, the system itself is in decline. This despite a promise to have the “best publicly financed health care system in the world”. In education, “his absolute top priority” on coming to office in 1997, one in twelve schools are now failing their students so completely, according the Governments own school evaluators, that they deserve to be closed. His promise of a new public service for a new century sounds hollow.

Blair’s government was also committed to an ethical foreign policy – a phrase no longer in the lexicon of an Iraq war burdened administration. He has not apologised over agreed deceptions in terms of the reasons Britain went to war with Iraq, nor has he apologised for various “errors of judgements” which have led to significant casualties, including the very public suicide of a senior public servant.

Blair has promised to step down before the next Labour Party annual conference in September 2007 – a promise he will be required to keep. His legacy looks very problematic at this time. If he is arrested before he leaves office, he will have a kind of Jeffrey Archer reputation of being an intelligent rougue who did his best, but focused more on spin, deceit and deception than on substance and sustainable change. If he escapes prosecution, he will have a Houdini-Clinton like reputation for getting away with it, despite the evidence.

None of this is good news for Gordon Brown, Blair’s heir apparent. In addition to the fact that he is dull, dogged and deceitful character himself who has very high control needs, he has no presence and no verve. Dull as ditchwater (despite being very intelligent), Brown will spend his time in office apologising for Blair’s inability to secure needed changes in public service – failings that Brown himself has much to do with. Worse, as Blairs real number two, he will suffer from

David Cameron, the very Blair like leader of the Conservative Party in Britain, will be the beneficiary of all this. Smart, focused and with strong appeal to middle class and green voters, Cameron is likely to win a general election, unless his party starts in-fighting.

At the bottom of this quagmire is a reality – the Labour Party Is a financial mess, with fewer than 300,000 members nationally. There are more people watching football on a single Saturday than belong to the party. While the Tory party under Cameron has secured large amounts of new funds, it too is in debt. Who knows if the Liberals have any cash at all. Corruption and insolvency appear to go together with deceit.

Making the Most

I checked into the Westin in Ottawa last week and yet again found myself in the disabled 
suite on floor 21. This is the seventh year in a row this has happened to me. So I checked into
this. Turns out one of my former MBA students, who was in management for Westin, flagged
me as "permenantly disabled" (I have no disabilities, as far as I am aware).  

He wasn't being malicious, in turns out. Its a very large suite. But, well you know...

Went to a wonderful performance of Bach motets and choral pieces on Sunday and managed to see
Helen Mirren in The Queen - a stunning performance.

Its nice to be back in action after three weeks of coughing, spluttering and general exhaustion.

Cough it Up!

There are several different kinds of cough.

There is the cough one makes when entering a room unnoticed when others are present so as to avoid their embarrassment when they realize that they have been talking about you while you stand quietly listening.

There is that delicate cough you make when you doctor is holding your testicles in her hand and is trying to establish a connection between the brain area and the pleasure area, sometimes to no avail. This is not the same cough one find oneself making involuntarily when the prostrate is examined by a doctor responding to your request for a second opinion.

There is the cough one makes at exactly the wrong moment in a performance of a delicate string quartet that gets you into trouble with all around you, most especially your partner. While there are some string quartets where such a cough is probably more musical than the notes being crafted by the skilled players, generally it is not a welcome kind of cough.

There is the cough-like sound one makes to cover embarrassment – for example, when someone is about to provide too much information on a subject and you don’t want the listener to actually hear or to cover an indiscretion. “To look at her, you wouldn’t believe that my wife is actually (cough) years old”, is a helpful illustration of such a cough.

Then there is the hacking cough I had all last week which comes from the tip of your toes, through every sinew, stem cell, tissue and fibre of your body and erupts from the base of your stomach through your chest and out through a sore, desperate throat. The kind of cough that bruises your rib cage, leaves you a shivering wreck and exhausts you. In one hour of this, I counted that I coughed thirty six times – each one leaving me a wreck. I did this for eight hours solid this one day (Tuesday). That is close to three hundred coughing fits or 200 minutes of coughing. No wonder I felt like a fifty five year old dish cloth who had not a single thread of its cotton fibre left for such things as thinking, reading, smiling, talking. My brain numbed to a complete frazzle.

I am starting to get over all of this now, after nine days of flu-cold symptoms that have been most debilitating. A visit to the doctor produced what I already know – rest, plenty of liquids, no alcohol, cough syrup and throat soothers and let it take its course. Its course was meandering, painful and left me thinking how a real illness would be. But I am out the other side, coughing once or twice a day. Hot flushes now and again, snivels and the occasional heave from a tired and bruised chest. Not a nice time.

Reed Henry

This is Reed, son of Mark and Denise Henry. A young man with a great future. Just 18 months and really into walkie talkie (well, more walkie than talkie). He gives me the kind of hope one needs for the future. He is a very handsome young man who enjoys his food (two very fine crab tarts not to mention turkey, ham and wonderful pudding), but is also the youngest of three, the other two being very energetic, intelligent sisters. Happy new year Reed!

Lynne and I are about to leave for San Francisco until New Year - so enjoy. Take care. Have fun. 

Happy Chritsmas

There I am between James and Lynne on the back row - Glyn in the middle holding a nice glass of Cedar Creek Meritage (we'd just switched from their Merlot). Glyn is between Lena's parents, and Lena is at the front with her brother in Law, Rui (Lena's sister took this photograph - thanks Christina).

All well - hope the same is true for you. A Happy Christmas to the 800 or so people a day who check out this site. 

Well..Its Christmas.

So its Christmas. That's CHRISTMAS not the holidays or some other politically correct term. Its CHRISTMAS.

The good news is that we are all well, enjoying each others company; that we're off to San Francisco for a week on Boxing Day and, though I will get presents, all I need is my health, my partner, some good food and wine and I am happy.

The bad news is that we have snow and mud ("snud") on the ground which will stay until March and its -10 (ish). The bad news is that there is nothing on television (thank goodness for DVD recordings of Gordon Ramsay's The F Word), Charlie Drake died (someone I gre up laughing at) and the global warming hysteria continues unabated (probably the most ill informed push for public poilicy this century). The bad news is that I am getting older.... so when you look at it, there is not a lot of bad news.

I hope that this is the case for you.

Smile - You are on Camera

Security cameras are everywhere in Europe. In London, the police are able to follow the movements of an individual almost anywhere and use powerful computers and many hours of labour to reconstruct a day in the life of…when they are in public places. Given the attempt to reconstruct the final days of the murdered Ipswich prostitutes, you can see why this is being done – despite the implications this has for civil liberty and privacy.

Now, in the Netherlands, the cameras listen. They are not listening to an individuals speech (though its just a matter of time), but to the pattern of speech listening for aggressive tones and sudden shifts in the pattern of sound. When it detects these, the camera moves to capture the new sound location and sends an alert to the control room.

More recent developments, not yet in public use, is to be able to use a range of biometric information to locate an individual in a crowd and then train the cameras to focus on the person and “hand over” the tracking to the next camera so that it will be easier to piece together the public behaviour of a particular person.

Liberty issues abound here. In Alberta, there is a total unwillingness to use cameras even on known trouble spots, except during special occasions and known trouble events. Here, the liberty issues outweigh the security issues, which is interesting. In Britain, at least when I last lived there (1998-2003), there was very little debate – the cameras just grew, multiplied and, well took over.

George Orwell would have been fascinated by all of this. When coupled with continuous news, some of it using CCTV footage, the society he wrote about in 1984 is closer than we think. When we then see Universities requiring politically incorrect students to undergo correctness rehabilitation at their own expense – based on the political correctness reports of fellow students – then we know that Orwell was right. If we had “seeing and listening cameras” on campus, Orwell would smile and simply say “I told you so”.



 

Naked News and Other Stories

The Vatican announced today a major new initiative which will radically change the perception of the church. They are to create a professional football team that will compete in the Italian league and hopes, with the help of God, to make it to the European finals within a decade.

Whatever next ? I can imagine the US House of Representatives creating an all star wrestling team to tackle the Senate. How about the Sisters of Constance, a veritable order of nuns, joining the Naked News team to give it some spiritual guidance and class. Or what about the English cricket team becoming sportsman and, well, playing cricket competitively?

It must be the season. Lotus, partnering with a California company backed by Google billionaires, has launched an electric sports car that can do 0-60 mph in just under 4 seconds. Called the Tesla Roadster, it can achieve the equivalent of 135 mpg. Top speed is estimated at more than 130 mph. More significantly, Tesla claims the car can run up to 250 miles on a charge — a huge leap over earlier electric cars and vehicles, such as General Motors' EV1. You just need a very long cable.

There are some other headlines or news items that caught my eye today. They include these:

• A man sued his doctor because he survived his cancer longer than the doctor predicted.
  
• 
  
• Two robbers were in the process of their crime when one changed his mind and arrested the other.
  
• 
  
• A woman had her husband's ashes made into an egg timer when he died so he could still "help" in the kitchen.
  
• 
  
• Only 68 of 200 Anglican priests polled could name all Ten Commandments, but half said they believed in space aliens.
  
• 
  
• An American Airlines flight was forced to make an emergency landing Monday morning after a passenger lit a match to disguise the scent of flatulence, authorities said.
  
• 
  
• The world's only bald, Welsh-speaking, Elvis has been receiving death threats.

I checked out the Darwin Awards and came across this:

Phoenix Field airport in Fair Oaks had been subject to recurring petty thefts from neighborhood teenagers, so a security firm was retained to patrol the grounds. Thefts decreased sharply, but fuel consumption was on the rise. This puzzling situation continued until late one night, when a passerby noticed a flaming airplane on the field.

By the time the fire department arrived, the plane had completely melted into the tarmac. While they extinguished the residual flames, the passerby noticed a uniformed figure lying facedown several yards away. It was a security guard!

He was revived and questioned. Turns out he had been siphoning fuel from small planes to use in his car. The plane he selected that night had a unique fuel storage system involving hollow, baffled wing spars. When the determined guard shoved the siphon in, it stubbed against the first baffle. No matter how he twisted, pushed, and pulled the hose, he could not siphon any fuel from the plane. Exasperated, he lit a match to see inside the tank... and the rest is history.

Guess the world is still normal..



 

A Happier New Year?

Many find the season to be gloomy – they spend too much, eat too much, spend too much time with relatives they don’t particularly like and watch very poor television. It makes them cranky, flatulent and negative. For many, the season brings out negative emotions and impressions about the state of the world.

Yet the world is in a very good shape. It is richer, healthier and cleaner than ever. Let’s look at some facts.

Daily food intake in poor countries is now 2,666 calories per person per day – an increase of 38% since the mid 1960’s. This has occurred despite the significant growth in population in these countries in this same time – up by 83%. One factor that helps this is the significant decline in world food prices over the last four decades – down 75% in real terms.

Poverty, though still very real for many, is on the decline. In 1820, 85% of the world’s population lived in abject poverty. Today the figure is nearer 20%. The number of people living on $1 a day is around 6% - down from 18% in the late 1970’s. The $2 a day number is also down from 39% to 18% in this same time frame. We don’t yet see the end of poverty or its implications, but these numbers represent real progress.

Life expectancy is also on the rise. In 1900 life expectancy around the world was 31 years – now its 67 years and rising. In Canada it is currently 80. While some countries are still low – Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Zimbabwe are all under 50 – the average continues to rise. The gap in life expectancy between rich and poor countries is now just 12.2 years – it was 25 years in the 1960’s.

Child labour is down. In the early 1960’s one quarter of all children under fourteen were working. Now it is less than 10%. More children are in school than ever before and global rates of illiteracy have fallen from 46% of all children in 1970 to around 18% today.

We use much less energy than we used to. One tone of coal produces twelve times more energy than it did just a century ago. Energy intensity of developed nations – a way of measuring the energy efficiency of a nation – has been falling at 1.3% each year for the last century and demand from the richest countries will fall this year, despite strong economic growth. Intensive agriculture has made it possible to produce more food from less agricultural land, enabling land to be returned to different uses. A recent study showed that our forests are making a comeback – trees are thicker now than they were one hundred years ago and the volume of trees is rising in China, Vietnam and Spain. One forecast suggests that, by 2050, the global forest will have expanded by 10%

The driver for all of these developments is economic growth. More specifically, it is the strong globalization of trade, knowledge and skills. As we support the reduction of poverty in India and China by enabling them to engage in the global economy and as we transfer skills, knowledge and resources more freely now than at any time in history, the quality of life for people improves. We still have a long way to go, but we are making real progress.

While global warming is a fact, the impact will be less than anticipated. The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change next report due in February is expected to indicate that the impact of global warming on sea levels will be less than anticipated and that the role of humans in creating warming is half that suggested in previous reports. In fact, the role of the sun in climate change – the sun is now warmer than it has been in over 11,400 years – is much greater than hitherto acknowledged. We need to leverage the opportunities of global warming rather than implementing draconian measures which will halt the war on poverty and hunger. We need to redouble our efforts to develop cleaner energy technologies and require their use, but not at the expense of a firm focus on growth.

As for critical illnesses, such as aids, malaria, TB, diabetes, treatments are improving and breakthroughs in genetic engineering, stem cell research and our understanding of the functioning of human systems are all providing new routes for cures. Just recently a team working at the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto, the University of Calgary and the Jackson Laboratory in Maine have found a diabetes pathway that originates in the nervous system. It appears that the nervous system closes down the effective insulin production of the pancreas, but that this can be reversed by a simple injection – ending diabetes, at least in mice.

Technological innovation is this stimulating significant advances in biotechnology, fuels, the more efficient use of renewable resources and for different forms of transportation. Skilled scientists, technologists and engineers have made major contributions to global well-being and will continue to do so, provided we continue to invest in innovation, research and commercialization.

So, as you face down that final piece of turkey and set aside the seventh glass of something or other, think of the world as one of hope. The evidence is there that mankind can manage its existence on this planet – we don’t have to start looking for new homes on the planet Mars or give up all our habits to save the planet. We are making progress. There is always more to do, but we can do what is needed in the spirit of moving on rather than in the spirit of turning back the clock.

Blair Escapes from the Nick

Christmas came early for Tony Blair. The long awaited police interview over the issue of selling honours (peerages, knighthoods etc) took place this morning. He was not interviewed under police caution nor was he arrested - such was the fate of many of the ninety one other people who have already been interviewed. As a lawyer, he would have played this very carefully. It is a criminal offense to sell peerages.

It is still too early to know whether he is off the hook, but his reputation is permanently damaged. It is a scandal, the depth of which we are yet to see. It reaches to all levels of the Labour Party - Lord Levy (senior adviser to Blair) has been arreseted and others expect to be.

Other parties are not immune from this, but the mud will stick to Blair. One of his major election platforms when first elected was to end the sleaze of the conservatives and to be cleaner than clean. His government has been riddles with scandal since the very beginning. The Deputy Prime Minister, Peter Mandelson and others have all been challenged and resignations have occurred.

Blair may have "got away" with this, but it will be his successor Gordon Brown who will have to live all of this down.

Giving Ed Room

Our soon to be Premier - he'll be sworn in tomorrow - held a press conference and announced a major restructuring of Government. From 24 Ministries to 18 with Economic Development, Gaming, Aboriginal Affairs, Community Development, Restructuring & Efficiency (which was about neither), Human Resources & Employment, Innovation & Science all gone.

The key new Ministry is Treasury Board President - a control of spending position. Good thing too - ours is out of control with $1 billion over-spends every year. There are also adjustments to other Departments - Advanced Education gets the I&S role, there's a Ministry for Parks, Recreation and Culture, Energy gets the biofuels and bioenergy portfolio and so on.

Its a good start. Now the next question is WHO - who will get which Ministry's. Lets hope Hancock gets Advanced Education and Technology - its his dream job (well, Premier was, but then..).

We need to lok at the politcal balance - especially any role Morton has and any role Oberg has. These will be key indicators of where the cookie crumbles.

Bush - Isnt That the Truth

There is no need for comment...though I did see a packet of mints in Oregon with GWB's image on them - they were called Impeach Mints. 

Gordon Ramsey, OBE

He is a very creative chef and a talented TV reality show maker. He swears a lot. Pokes fun at other chef's (they are all "gob shites" to him) and doesnt worry about causing controversy.

The key: he is a wonderful chef. Watching him on Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares or The F Word or Hell's Kitchen you can see he is passionate about food, focused on simple dishes that taste simply amazing.

His autobiography Humble Pie is a must read for those wanting to join the trade (as is Heat by Bill Buford) - gritty, determined, focused, thorough - these are the words I would use to descibe him. But try his food. Any criticism you may have just go out of the window.

A BIG WIND IN ESSEX SHATTERS THE PEACE AND QUIET

A major hurricane (Hurricane Shazza) and earthquake measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale hit Essex in the early hours yesterday with its epicentre in Basildon. Victims were seen wandering around aimlessly, muttering " Faaackinell". The hurricane decimated the area causing approximately £30 worth of damage. Several priceless collections of mementos from Majorca and the Costa del Sol were damaged beyond repair. Three areas of historic burnt out cars were disturbed. Many locals were woken well before their giros arrived. Essex FM reported that hundreds of residents were confused and bewildered and were still trying to come to terms with the fact that something interesting had happened in Basildon .

One resident - Tracy Sharon Smith, a 15-year-old mother of 5 said, "It was such a shock, my little Chardonnay-Mercedes came running into my bedroom crying. My youngest two, Tyler-Morgan and Victoria-Storm slept through it all. I was still shaking when I was skinning up and watching Trisha the next morning."

Apparently looting, muggings and car crime were unaffected and carried on as normal. The British Red Cross has so far managed to ship 4,000 crates of Sunny Delight to the area to help the stricken locals. Rescue workers are still searching through the rubble and have found large
quantities of personal belongings, including benefit books, jewellery from Elizabeth Duke and Bone China from Poundland.

HOW CAN YOU HELP?

This appeal is to raise money for food and clothing parcels for those unfortunate enough to be caught up in this disaster. Clothing is most sought after - items most needed include: Fila or Burberry baseball caps, Kappa tracksuit tops (his and hers), Shell suits (female), White sport
socks,Rockport boots and any other items usually sold in Primark. Food parcels may be harder to come by, but are needed all the same. Required foodstuffs include: Microwave meals, Tins of baked beans, Ice cream, Cans of Colt 45 or Special Brew. 22p buys a biro for filling in the compensation forms. £2 buys chips, crisps and blue fizzy drinks for a family of 9. £5 buys B&H and a lighter to calm the nerves of those affected.


***Breaking news***

Rescue workers found a girl in the rubble smothered in raspberry alco-pop. 'Where are you bleeding from?' they asked, " Bleedin Romford" said the girl, "woss it gotta do wiv you?"

With thanks to friends who sent this - thirty two of them...

Fallen Trees, Fallen Snow

Sometimes our weather can produce evocative images. 

Winter Films

The Great New Wonderful – another movie of vignettes which doesn’t work. Since Crash, there have been several of these. The trick with Crash was that the vignettes eventually connected – same with Syrianna (both not great films). This one doesn’t work. Edie Falco and Olympia Dukkakis both make small appearances and I suspect they are not annoyed that it wasn’t more substantial. Maggie Gyllenhaal is the key to this movie from an acting point of view, and she is accomplished in the role of a stuck up, arrogant and snotty cake maker. Its about time we saw her in something challenging – something that demanded real acting skill. This isn’t it. Avoid.

The Illusionist – a real showcase for Edward Norton who is outstanding as Eisenheim, the illusionist of the story. Paul Giamatti as the chief of police, Jessica Biel as Sophie (the love interest) and Rufus Sewell as the Crown Prince all put in stellar performances to make this a truly memorable film. A great script too, one with a brilliant twist at the end – made the whole film even more powerful. Phillip Glass wrote the music. A definite “must see”.

Munich – I think Spielberg has given up on editing – it runs for 164 minutes (except in the Philippines, where they cut 1 minute). Its about 64 minutes too long. An interesting story – how Mossad tracked down the Munich Olympic Massacre assasins and dealt with them. Some strong roles for the lead actors – Eric Bana (Hector in Troy) plays lead alongside Geoffrey Rush, Ciaran Hines (Caesar from the TV series Rome and a key player in The Statement) and Daniel Craig, among others. The film looses pace in the middle and ends in a way that suggests the crew just gave up. Moderate interest.

Going Nowhere, Fast

We talk a lot about the weather here. There's a reason for this. Since the end of October we have had some 3 feet of snow and its been in the -20 C range for some days. Ri9ght now, its around -6 and on the odd dayy its +6. So confusing.

When it warms and then gets cold, we develop "snud" - a kind of muddy snow.

The thing that most people outside the north don't udnerstand is that it will be like this until March. 

Canada, "Green" Politics and Science

The Liberal Party is making “green” issues a centerpiece of their strategy to beat the Conservatives at the next election. Despite continuing dispute within the scientific community, the Liberal claim will be that we face “catastrophe” for coastal regions and the artic from the warming of the planet. Our weather system will be changed fundamentally, affecting agriculture, fisheries and other industries reliant on predictable climates. Various species will disappear and new illnesses will reach our shores due to the warmer climate. As we near an election, expect any science supporting the exaggerated claims to be minimal and rhetoric maximal.

Science will be used to justify substantial proposals requiring the expenditure of billions. This from a political party that, when in office, had opportunities to do things about the issues they raise and yet achieved nothing, other than spending funds on activities which made very little difference.

Yet the science keeps changing. The UN will release a report in February 2007 which will make clear that previous reports have exaggerated the impact humans have on climate change – the sun is a major player. They will also reduce by half the predicted impact on the oceans of rising sea levels. The fact that none of their models of climate change have yet proved accurate will not be mentioned – an inconvenient truth.

What kind of policies will the Liberal Party propose? Carbon taxes – taxes on SUV’s, taxes on cars based on emissions standards. More toll roads – Ontario already has some. Subsidies for the building of ethanol plants, wind power turbines and solar power. Subsidies for retrofitting homes with efficient furnaces, better windows and insulation and new building codes requiring all new homes to be carbon neutral. Tax credits for companies who chose to go green. Lots of carbon trading – buying carbon credits to offset the fact that few of these measures will have an impact on CO2 emissions.

The impact of these measures will be felt most directly by the poor. Housing will become more expensive, the cost of living will rise and transportation will become a burden. Jobs will also be lost as companies seek to absorb the rising cost of compliance with legislation – expect a lot of regulations. Certain industries – the natural resource sector, automotive, air transport and tourism – will be most affected, as they absorb costs and shed labour.

If they were really radical, they would require each home in Canada to be carbon neutral and all businesses to buy a certain volume of carbon credits based on the industry and their size. For my household, this would be a cost of some $175 a year. For my small business this would be around $675 a year.

And what will we gain in terms of saving the planet. Almost nothing. If every home and business in Canada was to comply with what the Liberal party will likely propose, the impact on CO2 emissions will be minimal. The measures will have no impact on the fast growing producers of CO2 – India, China. They will impact the oil and gas industry, Canada’s leading producers of CO2, marginally and we will continue to have global warming, given the role of the sun.

So what is the point? The politics here are about creating fear and then acting as if it were real. Global warming is real – it is in describing the impacts that we have real fear mongering. The politics of this are about seeking to create an agenda which pushes two alternative views – the Liberal idea of the state as a “nanny” which needs to manage what its population does and the conservative idea that the state needs to partner with communities of interests so as to secure social and economic development. Elections are about which one of these two views will be dominant.

All politicians need to remember three things. First, several polls suggest that some 18% of the population do not believe global warming poses a serious threat and don’t support action aimed at responding to climate change. 14% of the electorate claim not tot have heard of global warming – they probably haven’t heard that the Conservatives are in power either or that Tommy Hunter is no longer on televison.

Second, while many agree that “something ought to be done”, most polling data makes clear that they think they are talking about “someone other than themselves” doing it – it is a “not me, but them” issue.

Finally, a lot of people are left feeling “cold” about the solutions proposed. The carbon tax on air travel (France), road charges (Britain) and taxes on car emissions (Britain), massive investments in wind power (Germany, Spain. UK) or the requirement for bio-fuels to be the primary fuel for transportation (several countries) do not resonate with voters. The “one tone” challenge is an example of a Liberal strategy that was simply too clever – most people had no idea what it was about at all. Policies aimed at cutting emissions from industry also go over the heads of many – they have heard all this before.

In all of the debate, the group that will suffer the most will be scientists. Their work will be manipulated, distorted and misread every day between now and the announcement of the election result. Expect Al Gore to feature prominently in the Canadian election, not as a candidate but as a source of “truth” – something that is worrying in itself (he “invented” the internet, you will recall with skepticism). Also expect this to be a messy campaign, with different scientists being used to “justify” fundamentally different positions. The end result: cynicism, not just about politics but about science.

Whatever Happened to Science?

Something strange is happening to science. Science and politics have become bedfellows and some scientists are crossing a thin line between scientific endeavour and political advocacy. The more this occurs, the less value will be attached to science and the more cynical people will become about politics.

Three examples will make clear the problem. The most obvious is climate change. This is the theory that the earth is experiencing global warming, caused largely by human actions, and that the impact of such warming will be devastating for many communities, especially coastal communities, around the world. Those scientists who dissent from this view – indicating that the sun is warmer now than it has been for several thousand years, that the earth is not as warm as it was in the medieval period and that many claims are exaggerated – are termed “climate change deniers”, find themselves ostracized within the scientific community and are refused grants. “Group-think” is so strong that the basics practice science has been replaced by the rhetoric of advocacy. In February of 2007, when the next UN report on climate change is due, expect skeptics to be at the forefront. The report will indicate that the impact of human activity on climate change is much less than was previously thought and that the rise in sea levels will be half that predicted by the UN when it last reported - fertile ground for skeptis of the science.

A second example relates to cholesterol. The theory here is that “bad” cholesterol is a cause of heart disease and that controlling cholesterol will lead to a lower level of risk of premature death through a heart attack or stroke. Large drug company profits are often driven by cholesterol related drugs, such as Lipitor – statins which have an impact on cholesterol production. Yet the evidence for this theory is not as compelling as many may think. The International Network of Cholesterol Skeptics – scientists and others – have a different interpretation of the evidence and reach different conclusions based on science. They note that age adjusted incident of heart disease has not been impacted by the widespread use of the statins used to reduce cholesterol. Despite these concerns, there is a global group-think that treats skeptics as deviants and deniers.

A third example will also help us understand why science, advocacy and politics are closely tied together. There is a strong view that North America and Europe is suffering an epidemic of childhood obesity. Yet the Centre for Disease Control in the US has had to retract several studies due to poor methodology or data analysis and has apologized for exaggerating the implications of the research. The New Scientist also showed that there is only weak evidence linking obesity with mortality – only those grossly obese suffer the symptoms and consequences attributed to the many who are slightly or moderately obese. Some of the original studies were funded by the weight loss / diet companies.

The scientific method is about disagreement, challenge and the use of evidence to support such dialogue. Advocacy is about taking a position and using all available means to get things done. Politics is about creating popular solutions to problems people didn’t know they had. When these become confused or blurred, then we all suffer.

For example, the insistence on cholesterol as a cause of heart disease leads to huge health care expenditures, transfer of assets from the public to the private sector. Scientists who take a different view are generally denied funds or find it difficult to secure support for their research.

Climate change believers always suggest that “deniers” are funded by the energy companies or proxy organizations established by these companies. Yet the global warming industry has its own funding resources – governments and others - who have a vested interest in promoting a future of challenge requiring political action. No one is immune from the influences of the socio-economic source of their funding and sponsorship.

The argument goes “well, we should act just in case the dominant theory is true – what’s the harm?”. All drugs have side effects – we are yet to see the full impact of a generation using statins to control cholesterol and the likely impact of the war against obesity on psychological and physical well being of the next generation. We have not yet fully understood the impact of the measures being taken to “manage climate change” on the social and economic development of communities. All acts have intended and unintended consequences.

What we can see is a growing cynicism about science and about the use of science to support advocacy and campaigns. What we see is the political manipulation of science to win elections, create fear and offer solutions to problems we may not actually have.

Bed Can Kill

So here's a fact that surprised me. Each year 600 American citizens die from falling out of bed. In fact, falling out of bed is the second largest fatality arising from falls.

Now dont panic. Most of us in our fit fifties simpky roll when we fall. This is especially the case if we are attached to someone at the time. Where death is likely is when the person is frail for other reasons and the fall leads to a major break.

I was worried when I saw this factoid. I mean, I dont fall out of bed often - no more than once a quinquiennia. But when I do, I generally feel better for it. Maybe this was delusional, I thought. Maybe I am really at risk and I am in denial. But on further investigation (there is a sizeable literature) I need to have other factors at play - falling out of bed is the final symptom. Phew..

 

TEN TESTS FOR ED

Our new Premier and his soon to be slimmed down cabinet will quickly get to work, charting a new course for the Province. As we watch the new thinking unfold, there are ten tests which will help decide whether the Government of Alberta really understand the challenges they face.

First, will they reduce public spending? Public spending in Alberta is too high at around $9,000 a person – around $2,000 a year more than other Provinces. It is also growing its spending too quickly. The surpluses will not last and we need to plan responsibly.

Second, will it control spending? Every year for the last five years, Government spending has been higher than it budgeted for by about $1 billion annually. This needs to stop. Premier Stelmach needs to impose strong fiscal discipline if he is to set a new course.

Third, will the Government start to manage growth? Alberta is forecast to experience 86,000 vacant positions over the next five years. We have people in work, but living in their vehicles due to the lack of affordable housing. We have issues with the fundamental conditions for community which are threatened by growth. What we should watch for is a slowing of permits for expansion, a focus on affordable housing and a strong commitment to listening and acting on the recommendations of municipalities most affected by the current cycle of development.

Fourth, will the Government engage in a systematic approach to diversifying the Alberta economy? Our reliance on oil sands, conventional oil and gas for our future is a risky business. New proposals were submitted to the Government for a systematic approach to developing Alberta as a responsible bioeconomy – balancing oil and gas with bioenergy, biochemicals and other bio products. Our ICT sector is strong, but could be stronger. Look carefully at economic strategy and look at the ratio of oil and gas to “other” supports as a test of how serious the Government is about a different, sustainable future for Alberta.

Fifth, what investments will the Government make in the future? In 2002 the Tuer Financial Management Commission looked at Alberta’s finances and recommended that it spend no more than $3.5 billion of oil and gas revenues and invest the balance in the Heritage Fund and in its innovation funds. Klein’s government did not do this. Stelmach’s should. Watch how surplus funds are used and look for increases to Alberta Ingenuity and the other innovation funds.

Sixth, what is the strategy for the future of health care in Alberta? For the last decade we heard a lot about the “third way”. Health care is the minefield that Stelmach will have to find a pathway through. What is needed is a balance between public funds and user pay and a balance between public and private delivery. Alberta cannot afford to continue growing public funding at the 79% rate of growth seen over the last few years. How Stelmach’s team deals with this balancing act will likely determine the longevity of the Conservative hold on power.

Seven, what steps are being taken to increase the participation rate in post secondary education? Students are right concerned about affordability of College and University education. Albertan’s should be concerned about the need to have a highly educated workforce. This means that participation rates and completion rates in our post secondary programs need to increase – so look for a different kind of encouragement and incentives for participation in and completion of programs.

Eight, look at the way municipalities are treated – do Cities get a fair slice of the cake? Cities and communities are at the heart of our experience of Government. Look at the flow of resources to cities and communities and at the fairness of these allocations. Look too at the extent to which municipalities are re-engaged in decisions which affect them. Listen to the reaction of Mayors to policy announcements – expect a change of tone.

Nine. look at the relationship between Alberta and the Federal Government – is it a strong and effective partnership? On a number of issues, the Klein government were at odds with the Federal Government and Alberta lost opportunities. Will the new Government in Alberta strengthen its role in confederation, build positive ties department by department and will we all benefit as a result.

Finally, will Stelmach “fix” the democratic deficit in Alberta? Will there be reforms of the way in which the Government engages with and works with the legislature, a rethink of the way the Standing Policy Committees work, a real engagement with the political parties to restore some faith in our democracy, especially amongst younger people? Stelmach could start by sorting out the rules for electing a Conservative Party leader. Another strong sign would be how he works with the opposition parties in the house. Its time for a major change of attitude and approach.

The electors who chose Stelmach sent a message. “Smarten up! Be responsible. No more same old!”. These ten tests will tell us whether he and his team not only heard, but understood the message they were sent and are acting on it.

Prawn to Beta Blocker 4

The serious and good news this week is that chess players competing in the Asian
Games will, for the first time, will be tested for drugs. Its part of the attempt by
 the world chess federation to become an Olympic sport.

So this got me thinking. What drigs do chess players take to improve their performance. The doctors 
were looking for traces of amphetamines, tranquilizers, heart medicines called beta blockers and other drugs that are also banned in physically strenuous sports. I'd be looking for imagination enhancing drugs - or foods - ginseng, smack, kippers.

Really, how silly is the world getting.

Oprah Dumbing Down

 Oprah jumped on the wagon today, joined by film star (and occasional Vice President) Al Gore. She has just discovered that the planet is warming. She yet again demonstrates that on this kind of thing, she is basically “thick”. Bright at other things, without a doubt, But give her a science subject, she is just thick. She was just the same with the bird flu. One sign of this was that she asked Gore if he felt like Noah.

Gore basically did his stand up science. Polar bears are drowning because the ice is melting; the north pole is melting and will be gone in (well..not clear); we have just 10 years to act decisively or we will pass the tipping point when we can no longer save the planet.

Oprah has three problems. She is not challenging - this happened before during medieval times, how come the climate change models can predict climate and what is the role of the sun? She is too blindly following and it shows by her fawning. She did have a section on the skeptics (“there has always got to be another side”, she said dismissively) – which was very good. Gore dismissed this in terms of who funded the work of the skeptics.

When it comes to action, it is always so pathetic. Here is what Oprah recommends: (a) change your light bulbs; (b) do an energy audit – programmable thermostats, change the air filter, blanket the hot water heater; (c) buy E85 and buy a car that can run on E85; (d) shop green for appliances with an energy star symbol.

She shouldn’t do these shows. It is so dumbed down stuff – shown by the sudden appearance of DeCaprio. She looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights of a hunters truck. I know she thinks she is doing the right thing, but by allowing this pseudo-science to go out in this way she just alienates a lot of people. Sure, many will get it for the first time - but it is not great.

Oh, I just remembered. Al Gore invented the internet. Yeah, right.

Midnight Madness

Politics is one thing. Music is another. Just returned from an interested concert - Prokofiev 3rd Piano Concerto (beuatifully played) and Martinu First Symphony - the Edmonton Symphony were outstandingly good tonight, with these tw pieces giving them a great deal of scope. So that was good.

Now back to Alberta politics. Looks like Ed Stelmach will be the new Premier and party leader - if Morton fails to take second place (he's third with 60 of 83 ballot boxes counted) then his votes are reallocated and most will go to Stelmach (well, this is the working assumption) making him the winner. That is, unless Dinning gets 50% plus 1, which looks unlikely.

But what a process. You could buy memberships at the door and vote two minutes later (friends have already ripped up their membership). Contributions were possible from people resident elsewhere in Canada. Controls were so weak that it would be possible to vote early or vote often. Despite these real problems, some 160,000 people (app.) appear to have voted - a heck of a lot more than elected Stephane Dion.

The next few weeks will be very interesting, to say the least.

Lost in Translation

Stephane Dion has beaten the academic Ignatieff for the liberal leadership. This is great news for those of us who are conservative in our leanings - not that being a Tory in Canada resembles anything other than right thinking Liberals in the rest of the world.

A nice guy, who is very confused about Kyoto (he bought a dog and named it Kyoto - showing that he doesnt understand how pets are part of the problem), doesnt speak english clearly and is not all that popular in Quebec. Ah well... one good news.

For a moment, I thought it was Celine Dion who had won.

Pantomime in Montreal

Think about this Liberal leadership gong show for a moment.

Bob Rae, who I have met and is a very decent man, used to a Provincial NDP Premier. That is, a left leaning liberal. He didn’t do a great job as Premier, though he has done “a Nixon since” – major rehabilitation.

Michael Ignatieff was, until recently, an academic – Harvard and Oxford. A bright, arrogant and ignorant (as most academics are) man who has been out of the country for some 30 years. He says that if he looses the Liberal Leadership he will return to his academic work – showing his ignorance. He retracted after a negative reaction (showing his ignorance), but I think we know what he will do. He’s basically a manipulative, opportunist smart-arse.

Ken Dryden is a newcomer to politics – ex professional sportsman (a respected hockey player), he entered politics at the last but one election. Decent guy, but not the sharpest chisel in the bag of hammers.

These are three of the people in the race for the Liberal leadership – the other is Gerard Kennedy, former director of the Food Bank in Edmonton. He has done very well indeed here, positioning himself for the race after this one. He’s young enough, not arrogant and is smart. He is also in for the long haul, unlike Rae or Ignagtieff.

Commenting on these three (and the others in the race) is multimillionaire (family money) Belinda Stronach, who once ran for the leadership of the Conservative Party (lost), crossed the floor to join the Liberals in exchange for a cabinet position.

It’s an odd country. The second ballot for the leadership results just came out. They are:

Michael Ignatieff (Lazy Academicals) - 1,481 (up 2%)

Bob Rae (Switcheroo) - 1,132 (up 3%)

Stephan Dion (Lost in Translation) – 974 (up 2.8%)

Ken Dryden (The Puck Stops Here) - 219

Gerard Kennedy (Chippaquiddick) - 884

John Volpe (who had dead people on his campaign team as well as children under 10 – now with Bob Rae), Martha Hall Findlay (Dion) and Scott Brison (Rae) have all switched. Speculation is that Dryden will go to Rae and Dion will get Kennedy.

So it looks like it will be a long day. I for one will be glad when it is all over. I can’t take this pantomime much longer, and pantomime is what it is.

Stephen Harper, our Conservative Prime Minister, must be looking at all of this and smiling, after all – it does show an opposition party confused, split ideologically and electing someone who is not likely to find Ontario easy to carry.



 

A Series of Unofrtunate Events

You can tell where the media loyalties lie. Globe and Mail has several pages looking at the liberal leadership campaign – an amuse, it seems to me. CBC is dedicating what looks like most of the day to this gong show.

The fact that there is no real democracy here – it’s a delegate conference where a lot of bar trading is taking place (something that most mature political parties – except in the US – abandoned in the last century) or no real significance to this (Harper will win against any of the front runners, especially Ignatieffor Dion) doesn’t seem to occur to these writers and broadcasters. I have watched the CBC goon show for an hour now (nothing of significance appears to happen for long chunks of time, so its reality TV) and not a single mention of Alberta.

Most of the time on CBC involves unknown reporters talking to unknown people about a series of unfortunate events.

The Globe’s coverage of Alberta is a half page, half of which is a map. Go figure. Here we are in a country with 2.3% GDP h and Alberta has 5% where the Federal surplus is half that of Alberta and where the real key to our relationship with the US (oil) will be decided.

So here is my prediction – Stephane Dion will win the liberal leadership and Dinning will win the Alberta race, but it will be close and Ed Stalmach will do well (possibly beating Morton). Now I am off to vote.

Winter Nights Movies

Its cold - minus 30+ for part of the time, and we have a lot of snow. So movies. Here are the ones we have seen since I last posted.

Defence of the Realm – A British film with Denholm Elliot, Fulton McKay, Ian Bannem and others – made in 1985. A journalist looks at the link between a British MP and a Russian agent, which then leads to other things. Strong writing and a solid cast. Captures the challenges of journalists working on political stories with an edge. It is also strong on intrigue – a good, potentially classic, English film. Based in part on the Profumo case where a cabinet Minister and a Russian military attaché (KGB agent) shared a call girl called Mandy Rice Davis. The starting point for this film is this same story. Director David Drury maintains an understated tension throughout, helped by sombre and often striking cinematography by Roger Deakins, later favoured by the Coen Brothers. Robbie (Cracker) makes an appearance in this film.

Kiss, Kiss, Bang, Bang – Val Kilmer, Robert Downey Jnr and others in a well crafted film based on a Brett Halliday novel (Bodies are Where You Find Them) and directed by Shane Black. It’s a thriller mystery with a detective, an actress and an amusing story line. Fun – imaginative and well worth a glass of wine and an evening. (It is quirky!).

Beauty Shop – Queen Latifah starts in this simple comedy. It is simple. Did I mention simple. Well, yeah. Couldn’t sleep, turned it on, soon was snoring like a trooper. She is a very beautiful lady, by the way – but I couldn’t raise a smile here. Guess you had to be there.

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – you’ve got to like thr energy and imagination of these. I have not read the books, just watched the movies. So my knowledge of Rowling’s characters are all based on the films. Down to earth (ho ho) good family entertainment, even for a couple of old timing.

Shadowboxer – Helen Mirren is an assassin dying of cancer who lives with her step son, played by Cuba Gooding Jnr. A dark, difficult movie. Mirren takes on one last case – which gets complicated and a birth is involved. Mirren is simply a classic player in this (also saw her in the final Prime Suspect on TV). Gooding is also very strong in this movie. There are a lot of silences – careful dramatic moments, tensions. Not sure it works well, but anything with Mirren is worth watching. Intriguing, if not compelling.

The Badge – a small town cop (Billy Bob Thornton) investigates the murder of a transsexual and sees that politics may well have been involved. Patricia Arquette, William Devane and others in this 2003 movie, written and directed by Robby Hensen, who is currently working on House.

The Man Who Saved Christmas - A very charming feel-good seasonal tale of a man with strong dreams and expectations. Jason Alexander plays Erector Set inventor (similar to Meccano in the UK, who later bought the company), A.C. Gilbert, who is asked by the Government to urge citizens to cancel Christmas during the first world war and buy bonds instead of toys. Gilbert turns his toy manufacturing plant in a war supply plant making gas masks, bomb casings, chemical suits and bayonets among other things. Gilbert has a change of heart and goes with his deepest and long fostered dreams. He goes before the nation's Defense Counsel and gets permission to go back to making his toys. The toy maker still kept manufacturing war supplies, but also turned his own home into a producing center for more Erector Sets. After the war, Gilbert continued manufacturing Erector Sets, Chemistry Sets , Magician Trick Sets, trains and other toys for over forty years. Alexander is good in this role and light-years away from his role on TVs "Seinfeld" as George Costanzia. Also in the cast are Kelly Rowan, Ari Cohen, Ed Asner and Jake Brockman. Entertaining for all ages (provided you have a stiff scotch to hand).

Scoop – Woody Allen with Scarlett Johnasson, Ian McShane, Charles Dance and Hugh Jackman in this classic movie. In the line of Allen’s murder mystery series, the movie moves along well and is most enjoyable. Some great one liners from Woody (playing poker, someone says to about him “he’s very good with cards”, “yes,” he says “I bought my first Rubens by playing cards – best sandwich I ever had..”). Strongly recommended.

Cellular – Kim Bassinger (who wouldn’t watch this movie) and Chase Bloch star in this thriller. A woman is kidnapped and is able to make one call to a complete stranger and asks him to rescue her. Story evolves from here. Snakes on a Plane director David Ellis (also a skilled stuntman) directed. Strong start and it just keeps going. Bassinger acts well in this role (better than in Door in the Floor or L A Confidential). W H Macey is in this too - always makes for a more interesting film.

In addition I caught bits of other films during the last few weeks, but didn’t get through the first few minutes… the more we watch, the tougher it is to find something worth watching.

Intelligent Ways of Doing Nothing

A version of this piece will appear in Lifestyle 55+

The holidays, which is how we must now refer to Christmas, is one of those key dates in the retirement calendar – a great many people will retire at the end of the year. Linda Hughes, publisher of the Edmonton Journal, for example, has chosen this time to retire. In fact, 40% of retirees effectively choose this date.

The issue for them is how to “detox” themselves from the world of work. Think about it. For some thirty five to forty years, for some 50 weeks a year (a minimum of 10,500 days or 84,000 hours and up to 100,000 hours) these individuals “worked”. In other area of life, this would be an addiction. (I once formed a branch of Workaholics Anonymous, but no one showed up - they had work appointments).

So the key is to spend sometime doing nothing, but doing it in such a way that your mind adjusts to the fact of retirement. No more schedules, “must see” or “key tasks and outcomes” lists. No more strategic plans, business cases, budget processes, “cease and desist” conversations with recalcitrant staff. Just you and the world at your feet.

There are ten activities you can engage in which will lead to your mind understanding that your world has changed. They range from the very active to completely purposeful ways of doing nothing. Here they are:

Extreme Ironing - On 17th August 2006, 39 year old Londoner Louise Trewavas, aka "Dive Girl", claimed a new world record by ironing at a depth of 137m (452 feet) in the Blue Hole, at the Red Sea resort of Dahab. (The extreme ironing underwater record was first set by "Dive Girl" in 2003 with an impressive display of linen-pressing at 100m). Her latest feat was a response to Teignmouth-based diver John Rudolph hitting a new low and ironing a T-shirt on a 129m dive in July 2006. Extreme ironing has been undertaken at the top of Mount Rushmore, while sky diving from a light aircraft, while walking a tightrope across a major gorge in South Africa. Not only do you get the ironing done, but you get fit as well. The downside is that most people think you are completely nuts. There are books, films and web sites dedicated to extreme ironing.

Googlewhacking – you Goolge two words with the aim of getting Google to return just one web site. It only counts if it is a real website – not a list or a dictionary – and if both words on your search are in the online dictionary.com Dave Gorman went further: when he found a Google whack, he emailed the web site owner and then went to visit them. His book is a best seller. Go figure.

Newshounding – this may appeal to former journalists and publishers. Take an offbeat story – like the fact that MacDonald’se trying to patent the process of sandwich making – and see how this is reported elsewhere in the world. Look at the Daily Telegraph, Washington Post, Al Jazeera, Jerusalem Times and see what the coverage looks like. You can waste hours doing this.

Find Your Namesakes – when I had a bout of the flu, I managed to intelligently do nothing by finding other Stephen Murgatroyd’s on line and finding out what they do. Several were dentists (in fact five our of the twenty seven I found were – may suggest some genetic defect). Dave Gorman (notice how this name keeps cropping up) traveled the world to meet other Dave Gormans and got a TV show, book and a reputation for doing things that were a complete waste of time and very profitable.

File a Successful Patent – if MacDonald’s can patent the process of making a sandwich (I doubt that they will be able to do this, by the way), then why can’t you patent putting your socks on, walking backwards, singing barbershop in the shower, or – well, use your imagaination.

What Ever Happened To? – Aren’t you curious about some people that we all connected with, who are no longer around? Whatever happened to Danny de Vito (he was drunk on am TV last time I saw him) or Christopher Darden (prosecutor in the O J case – now a defense lawyer in his own firm), Newt Gingrich or Tommy Hunter? Research the people you are curious about.

Become a Wikist – the wikipedia is the worlds largest, fastest growing and most used encyclopedia – anyone can contribute or edit existing contributions. Use the wikipedia to look at topics you are interested in (Googlewhack for example) and improve what is on there. Danger – its addictive.

Become a Hunter – I don’t mean go out and shoot a Moose, but adopt a year (say, 1987) and look up the movies produced in that year (1987 movies include - 84 Charing Cross Road, Broadcast News, Lethal Weapon, Moonstruck, The Princess Bride, Raising Arizona, Roxanne, Bagdad Café, Prick up Your Ears and many more..), rent them and watch them.

Use the Library – one of the greatest inventions of mankind is the public library. Use it. Adopt an author – I am currently working on the novels of Kingsley Amis (I finished all of the Graeme Greene novels as well as the three volume biography earlier this year) – and read everything.

Travel – literally hundred of hours can be wasted intelligently by traveling to India, China, Nepal, Red Deer – pick up a thriller, work on your macramé, take up Suduki for the journey and use your library to get travel tips for what to do when you arrive. Eat the local food but drink bottled water.

There are other things you can do too – try to find something worth watching on television (hours can be wasted doing this), looking for all the ingredients for an Anthony Bourdain recipe in a single store; trying to get a straight answer from a politician; wondering why on earth CBC hasn’t canned The Royal Canadian Air Farce (no longer funny or cutting edge) or The Red Green Show; learning Welsh; going to the courthouse and sitting through a trial; buying a baton and conducting a performance of the Messiah in front of a mirror at home; losing weight – these are all things that take time, can be enjoyable, but are generally harmless and really don’t add up to much. Just what the brain needs to get the message: your world has changed - obviously, it has also improved!

Helpful Resources

1. 
   
   • Workaholics Anymous does exist - look at http://www.workaholics-anonymous.org/
   • Extreme Ironing is a real (and deeply meaningful) sport - see http://www.extremeironing.com/
   • Googlewhacking is also a serious business, just ask Dave Gorman - see http://www.googlewhack.com/
     
   • Newshounding is made easier by using Google to set up alerts - so that Google will automatically search the web for materials relevant to your interests. You can also use Attensa to automate "feeds" from RSS enabled web sites directly into your email.
   • Namesake Finding - another Google task.
   • File a Patent - anyone can file, so dont fall for the idea that you need a lawyer. There are firms which will helo you file a provisional patent for $99US - see http://patent-patent.com/
   • Whatever Happened to? - it depends what or who you are looking for. I spent time looking up actors I hadnt seen for a while and the best site for this is IMBd - www.imbd.com
   • Becoming a Wikist - just look up anything in the Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia and now there is also wikispecies, wikibooks
     
   • Becoming a hunter - there are lots of lists avaiable online, my favourite being http://www.listology.com/index.cfm
     
   • Use the library - depends where you are, but you'd be surprised how many services they now offer. Great place to borrow CD;s and DVD's from.
   • Travel - book a self managed vacation via http://www.expedia.ca
     

   
   

Making a Sandwich May be an Infringement of Patent Rights

Apparently, it was announced today that McDonald's is seeking to patent sandwich making. And its not a machine they are trying to patent, it is the method of making deli sandwiches. Now maybe this is intellectual property protection being taken too far.

However, it got me thinking. I have not much to do in the last week of December, so I think I will try and patent: putting on socks after a night out on the town; shaving without cutting a hole in your cheek; washing behind the knees while standing; googlewhacking - how to get just one result from a two word google search; conducting an orchestra; singing in the rain.

Just think of the money I could make from third world countries who wont realise that I own all of this activity.

Time to change this thinking...