Short Story: Time Capsule

Angela and Sam had heard that their great grandparents had buried a time capsule near their farmhouse shortly after they had arrived in Alberta to farm land near Athabasca at Meanook. They had often joked about it, suggesting it would contain some of grandad’s favourite sausages or a pair of corsets which grandma had insisted on wearing for church, despite the pain they caused when kneeling.

But Angela and Sam were now not so sure that the contents would be quite so frivolous. After all, their grandparents had a strong reputation and a passion for history in Athabasca, having both been keen supporters of the town becoming the capital of Alberta. Maybe, figured Sam, a time capsule might contain something of value.

But where to look. Given that site of the farmhouse had changed three times since the first farm was built in 1903, the time capsule could be anywhere. It was speculation that it would still be around. If Angela and Sam had learnt anything from their grandparents, it was that Albertans who have an idea don’t easily give up. "If you really think you can do something, then Alberta is one of the few places where you will be encouraged to try and try again." said grandma. "Farmers cant give up," grandpa had always said, "'they have the land to nourish – you cant give up on the land!".

Angela had been to the Athabasca library and found some old maps. Sam borrowed a metal detector from a friend who used it on beeches to fund his Starbucks habit. Between them, Sam and Angela narrowed the options - under a tall spruce or under a large flat paving stone near which the family thought used to be at the front of the first farm house.

They used the metal detector near the tree. Almost as soon as they got the hand of it, it burst into life. They dug down, careful to make sure they didn’t get too rough with the area – they didn’t want to damage anything. They found a few coins and part of an old hoe. No sign of a box, tube or capsule.

Next they worked to lift the large, flat paving stone. Underneath was a web of ant trails, worm holes and beetle lava. “We’ve just lifted the lid on a village,” said Sara. They dug directly in the square left by the flat stone, being careful not to rush the work.

Now they were stuck. Where else could they look ? Angela and Sam walked to the place on the farm which the family always used as a place of reflection – a place for contemplation, sharing – a place where difficult conversations took place. It was on a corner of their land, in a wooded area at a place where two creeks met. Two paths also crossed at this point, and there was a beautiful view of the creek. It was a place where one could be at one with nature.

Angela sat quietly, thinking about their great grandparents and their life a hundred years ago, just as the Province of Alberta was founded. “Tough”, “rugged” and “demanding” were words that came to mind. She also always thought of “compassion”, “caring” and “commitment” when she thought of her family.

Her quiet reverie was interrupted by Sam. “How long has this place been the family’s special place?”, he asked. “Forever!” Angela replied. “Isn’t this a place for a time capsule? Isn’t this a place where a family might want to reflect on the future and the past?,” asked Sam. Suddenly they were both excited. Together they searched the area, looking for an obvious place. At the corner of a part of the land that jutted out just at the point where one creek joined the other there was a post, and it was always known as the “look out” – a place where grandpa Heskton had said the old joins with the new. Almost as soon as they started, their metal detector became both loud and difficult to handle – vibrating, as if with excitement. They dug carefully and, around two feet down, found a metal box, rusted and battered, about the size of medium sized tool box.

“Lets open it right here,” said Sam in that voice he had at Christmas when the presents were arrayed under the tree. “No, lets wait until we get back to the house – then we can make sure everything in the box is looked after properly”, said Angela. “You never know, there may be lots of things in here which we need to make sure don’t get lost in the grass or fall down the embankment. We need to be careful.”

They took the box home and proudly placed it on newspapers on the kitchen table. The box had a small rusted lock which was easy to remove. The lid took some time to prise off and inside there was a a faded newspaper wrapping several things. Sam was very excited, but as always it was Angela who was cautious, careful and very deliberate – “we don’t want to damage anything now, do we Sam!” she said, sounding like her grandmother.

The first object they took out was the faded newspaper – an original describing the creation of Alberta as a Canadian Province. There was some lace with a small note in great grandma’s spidery handwriting, saying that it was from her wedding dress. There was some feathers, which a note attached indicating that they were from a Cree Indian head-dress. The most significant thing in the box was a metal canister, which they had difficulty opening. When they did they were amazed. It contained gold nuggets – twelve of them.

“Wow!” exclaimed Sam “we’re rich!”.
“Not so fast,” said their father. “We need to think about this, but it is very interesting, very interesting indeed”.

Over the next few days, the gold was a major topic of conversation in the Heskton household. Michael, Sam and Angela’s father, took the gold to Edmonton to be valued. When he returned the family gathered around him and waited for him to speak.

“Well,” he began “we already owe a lot to Tom and Hilda and now we owe them even more.” He looked at each of them around the table and nodded, a sign that what he was about to say was important.

“The gold you found was twenty nine ounces. More importantly, it was very pure “some of the best gold I’ve seen in a long time” said the expert I talked to. An ounce of gold is worth $450 an ounce – that’s a lot of money. You dug up $13,000 worth of gold.” The family sat silently for a few seconds, before Sam asked the question on all of their minds “what are we going to do with that money then?”.

Mother spoke first. “The money you found will be for your future – for your education. We can make sure its protected for you and it will grow, so that when you need it for tuition, books and things it will be there”.

Sam looked disappointed. The new mountain bike, the plasma screen TV, the big iPod – all of his dreams were gone and replaced by a bank book. Angela, however, was delighted. Her fear of not being able to go to University had suddenly disappeared. “I guess great grandma and granddad knew what they were doing,” observed Angela. “I am sure they did,” her mum replied.

[Submitted to Alberta Anthology - They required it to relate to the Alberta centennial in some way....]

Whatever Happened to Jude Law?

Ever since Chris Rock made his joke about Jude Law being in almost every movie at the 2005 Oscar ceremony, only to be rebuked by a humourless Sean Penn, Jude Law has become less prominent as a movie star. Some strong films – Closer (2004), Cold Mountain (2003), The Talented Mr Ripley (1999) – provided him with a strong reputation. This he weakened by some poor character choices, such as Alfie (2004), which he didn’t really succeed with, and as Brad in I Heart Huckabies (2004). So, where is Jude Law in his meteoric career?

Though his acting career began on stage in 1984, he recently celebrated his first decade in the movies. In this time he has made twenty five films, been nominated for two Oscars (best actor in Cold Mountain and best supporting actor for The Talented Mr Ripley), won both a British Television Film Academy and Blockbuster Award for Mr Ripley, and been nominated three times for a Golden Globe.

His first “big” film was Gattaca (1997) – a film he made just seven years into his professional acting career, which he followed with a strong character role in Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil (1997). Steady work followed, including his lead role in Spielberg’s AI (2001) and a key role in Sam Mendes Road to Perdition (2002).

For a time he was also a partner in a production company called Natural Nylon, which explains why he made Alfie – it was his production company. His partners in this venture included Jonny Lee Miller, his own ex-wife Sadie Frost (they divorced in 2003) and Ewan McGregor. This company developed a range of projects for both stage and film and continues to provide a strong vehicle for Law and others.

His personal life took a positive turn when, shortly after being named “sexiest man alive” by People Magazine –not always a reliable source of information – he announced his engagement to Sienna Miller, with whom he starred in Alfie. Despite rocky moments in this relationships, plans for a wedding in 2006 remain firm.


Recently he has been working on three films. All the Kings Men directed by Steven Zaillian, author of some major film screenplays (Awakenings, Hannibal, Gangs of New York). The film co-stars Sean Penn in the lead role, Sir Anthony Hopkins, Kate Winslet and James Gandolfini. It is the story of a southern governor and his political career, based on the 1946 Pulitzer prize novel of the same name by Robert Penn Warren. Jude Law plays Jack Burden – a part originally played by John Ireland (Gunfight at the OK Coral, Spartacus and others) in the 1949 version of this film.

More interestingly, Law is working again with Anthony Menghella (Cold Mountain, Talented Mr Ripley, The English Patient, Truly Madly Deeply) on the film Breaking and Entering, where Law plays the lead with Ray Winston and Robin Wright Penn in support. The storyline is a classic reflective character role – his character Will is an architect who has to re-evaluate his life following a break and enter. It should challenge Law and provide an opportunity for the Law-Menghella partnership to be nominated for a third Oscar.

His third current project is Dexterity, directed by Gavin O’Connor (Tumbleweeds, Miracle, Comfortably Numb). Law plays a depressed man who, deserted by his wife, submerges himself in a depressive life in Myles, New York. Law is producer for this movie – his second production. He has also made his directorial debut in a segment of the made for TV film Tube Tales (1999) – one of nine short pieces, with others by Ewan McGregor, Bob Hoskins and Stephen Hopkins (director of many of the episodes of 24 as well as The Life and Death of Peter Sellers).

Sean Penn was right. Jude Law is “one of our finest actors” and now needs to consolidate his career with some careful character choices and focused direction. He enjoys acting on stage, taking time out of a hectic movie schedule earlier in his career to appear on stage in Marlowe’s Dr Faustus and is rumoured to be interested in playing Hamlet. Getting back to the stage for a period may help hone is already strong acting skills.

We will see a lot more of Jude Law. Watch for him in Break and Enter.

Whatever Happened to: Kenneth Brannagh?

At one time, Kenneth Branagh was everywhere. Directing and starring in classic Shakespeare films such as Much Ado About Nothing (1993) Othello (1995), Hamlet (1996), Love’s Labour’s Lost (2000). Seen as the next Laurence Olivier, right down to his alleged bisexuality, his star ascended before he was thirty. Starring as a Woody Alan like character in the Woody Allan movie Celebrity (1998), pulling together his Cambridge footlights’ friends – Stephen Fry, Emma Thompson and Hugh Laurie – and engaging them in film projects, such as Peter’s Friends (1992). Then nothing. Well, almost nothing unless you count his appearance in Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) as a stellar performance.

True, he did provide an over the top performance as Shackleton (2002) and a modest performance as a zealous hunter of missing children in Rabbit Proof Fence (2002). He also played Reinhardt Hydrich in the film Conspiracy (2001) - a limp account of the agreement over the “final solution” to the Jewish question amongst the Nazi leadership – a film which was the subject of considerable criticism. Despite his performance, he won an Emmy for this film and not for Shackleton.

But from a heady start – three Oscar nominations in different categories (writer, director and best actor) for three different films, including the short film Swan Song (1992), an Emmy and wins at the Venice Film Festival (for In the Bleak Midwinter, 1993) and several European Film Awards for Hamlet - its fair to say that his career has not recently been the headline news it was in his early years.

He is maturing. He began as the youngest actor ever to play the lead in the Royal Shakespeare Company - Henry V at the age of 23. A lot of his early work had the enthusiasm of youth without some of the depth of character needed to reach inside the persona and reveal more than we already know about them – this was the problem with Shackleton and Hydrich and to some extent his portrayal of Hamlet. He played some of his award winning roles in his mid thirties and now, a decade on, he his beginning to look more like a thoroughbred.

He is discovering. Since he divorced Emma Thompson in 1996 – a British star marriage that had class, unlike that of Victoria and David Beckham – he has explored a range of challenging roles. His portrayal of Dr. Loveless in Wild West (1999) or his portrayal of a troubled artist who befriends and then falls in love with a young woman dying of MS – The Theory of Flight (1998) – are all examples of him seeking a new angle or a new persona. His recent portrayal of FDR in Warm Springs (2005) shows what this new work can produce – depth, a sense of privileged insight into the workings of a character.

He is getting back to his roots. He began his acting career on the stage and moved from theatre to television and then to film. He was powerful and effective as Edmond in the play of that name running at the National Theatre in London. His performance was so strong he was nominated for a 2004 Laurence Olivier Theatre Award for Best Actor of 2003.

He has married again – Lindsay Brunnock, an art director who worked on Shackleton and other projects. He met her through an introduction by Helena Bonham Carter, with whom he co-starred in Hamlet, The Theory of Flight and Frankenstein (1994)

He is hectic. In addition to numerous voice over projects (including his narration of the Goebbels Experiment (2005)), he is finalising his next Shakespeare film As You Like It (due in 2006) and working with Tom Cruise and others on Mission Impossible . He is also writing.

Its time to see more of Branagh, but this time with more depth, more maturity and more intimacy. The big bold characters he played in his early days, very much in the style of Olivier, are now being replaced by more intimate portraits. We need more.

China, Challenge and the Future...

The story of China’s growth is everywhere. They bought IBM’s personal computer manufacturing business, they want to buy a major US oil company, they are buying into the oil sands and they own a significant portion of the US debt. They are currently building a 50,000 mile, three lane highway road system that will be bigger than the US inter-state system, but they will complete it in five years – the Americans took forty.

Their economy is growing at 9%, - Canada grows between 2.5-3% each year. China is already the second largest trading nation in the world after the US and will, at some point, overtake it – it is already trading at a higher volume that the whole of the European Union. Chinese economic activity accounts for over one third of the world’s economic growth and, so strong is this growth, it attracts both foreign investment (now around US$600 billion) and many companies - some 75,000 firms so far.

Some commentators point to these facts and many more like them and suggest that, just as the twentieth century belonged to America, the twenty first century will be China’s. One symbol of this will be their hosting of the 2008 Olympic Games.

Yet there is another side to China. It is a communist country, rife with corruption. It jails more journalists than any other country. It is a country which represses free speech – banning the BBC from its cable TV networks and making sure that certain search words typed into the Google search engine are prohibited - words like “democracy” or “freedom”. It represses the pursuit of certain religious beliefs, not just Felun Gong (a sect), but also some forms of Christianity – all “reactionary sects”, according to the Government of China. It also continues its brutal occupation of Tibet and threatens war over any attempt by Taiwan to declare its independence.

Its Shanghai Stock market is poor. Despite over 500 new companies trading stocks on that exchange, its total capitalisation is lower now than it was in 2000 – suggesting that the economic engine fuelling China’s growth has at least one squeaky wheel. But there is another: Chinese banks – many of which have significant bad debts and its investors have poor levels of protection. Indeed, according to one commentator, if the standard applied to banks in Canada, the US or the UK was applied to the major banks of China, they would be declared insolvent.

Environmental protection is also weak. China is the fastest growing car market in the world – over 100 million cars will be sold in China between now and 2020; it has coal fired power generation and smoke stacks which remain uncontrolled. China has engaged in massive deforestation, lost a fifth of its agricultural land to development over the last fifty five years, pours untreated waste into rivers and pollutes with acid rain. Don’t expect to see significant changes in China when Kyoto comes into effect in China in 2012.

Then there is poverty. The average per capita income in China is around $6,000 - just below Lebanon and Fiji (Canada’s is $29,500). This is low in comparison to Taiwan or South Korea (in fact it is a quarter of their per capita income). China is the only major East Asian country that has not caught up with Western income standards since 1945. Poverty also creates the conditions in which illness flourishes. HIV/AIDS is likely to affect some 10 million Chinese by 2010 and infant mortality remains high – 30 per 1000 live births (India is now at 10 per 1000).
Poverty is leading to some major challenges to the Government of China. More than three million protested in over 58,000 incidents against working conditions and poverty in China in 2003 and the figure is rising. Tiananmen Square was not the last protest by the Chinese people against their Government.

The real reason we should pause when thinking of China is its unelected government. As China moves to an era of globalized free trade with massive shifts in economic power, especially with the emergence of India and Brazil as traders to watch, its government will come under strain. Free trade eventually requires democracy – its part of the process of people recognizing that the values associated with freedom are the values that drive an enterprise culture. We cannot expect the Communist Party elders who govern China will want to give up power easily – there is no sign of a Chinese Gorbachev. What they will do is to push for growth at 9-10% each year so as to create 10-20 million jobs, whatever the costs to the environment, health, or community and whatever level of corruption, denial of freedom and brute force is necessary to make this happen. By “buying off” some of the protests with regional economic development, the Government will hang on to its powers.

This in turn will create tensions between China and the US, as they vie for super-power status towards 2025 when China will be dominant in world trade and have caused a significant shift in economic activity from the West to the East. This tension – which will show itself in hundreds of different ways, but mainly through trade and issues surrounding regional issues in Asia – is another reason for caution in the way we view China. As its power within the UN and the WTO grows, so will the US become even more concerned about the implied challenge to its role in the world.

China is a power to be reckoned with, but also one that needs to be watched. Canada should not rush to assume that China will always be friendly.

The Real Leadership Race in Alberta

So now we know. No progressive conservative leadership race in Alberta until 2007. It is official. In which case, let us get to the real leadership race: creating a twenty first century Province with a twenty first century understanding of our place in the world, relevant skills and a relentless focus on building a better Alberta.

What does this mean? First, it means we have to reinvent government. Restore democracy to the legislature – let it sit more frequently and have real debates about the issues that challenge Alberta, not just party line debates. Reinvent the Standing Policy Committees as cross-party committees which challenge and give scrutiny to the work of Ministers and their Departments in a way that permits back-benchers from all parties to have a real voice in planning, resource allocation and evaluation – the British do this well, why can’t we? Make use of the powerful broadband networks many individuals, communities and organizations have invested in to really use e-democracy to make a difference. Let us have a smaller, more focused cabinet with a more radical agenda. Engage us all in a real debate about policy choices – an open debate – so that we do more than just “slightly better than now” – we transform our government into the most progressive, imaginative and skilled in North America. It is possible.

It means reinventing our institutions. Most of our institutional frameworks are based on nineteenth century or at best early twentieth century models – our universities, our school systems, our health care system or social support system. Rather than having four separate boards for our Universities, let us create a Federal University system (as is Oxford, the University of Wales and the California State system) and really co-ordinate our resources for teaching, research, innovation and community service. Remove a tier of administration from the school system and focus on individual schools – the unit of measurement for students, teachers and parents and the front line and let schools band together to create common services driven by their own needs – stop the top-down and move to bottom up education. Simplify all of our procedures and processes and move to smart regulation – really make our new Ministry of Government Restructuring earn its stripes.

Alberta should look again to more ways of leverage the Federal governments investment in Alberta and to look at ways of becoming more like Quebec with more autonomy in its management of Federal programs – strong steps have been made here already, we should take more.

Most critically, let us beef up our investments in education, innovation and support for the disadvantaged and demonstrate just what a caring, future thinking Province can be like. We have made a start, but there is much more to do. Challenge the group now looking at the future of post-secondary to do more than tinker – demand that they create a twenty first century system for our Universities, Colleges and private post secondary education system and encourage them to look at big ideas, not just small ones.

Encourage the private sector in health, education and social services to grow. Create incentives for them to pioneer new ways of working, new approaches to public : private partnerships, new ways of funding joint ventures with the public sector so that we can build a powerful, sustainable mixed economy of service.

Lead in environmental management and practices – show what a modern twenty first century Province can do when it gets it act together to clean up polluted sites, effectively manage and nurture our natural resources and engage our young people in understanding the challenge of a sustainable environment. Pioneer new programs to develop the skills and competencies in Alberta to manage environmental challenges.

Showcase Alberta talent, skills and achievements – let us celebrate more, but also learn from their achievements. Challenge individuals, companies, communities, organizations to identify their top five challenges and support their attempts to both deal with these challenges, learn from them and share that learning. Become the Province where challenges are normal and our ability to respond to them is unusual, creative and effective. We already do this in some areas with world-class science, technology, distance learning, medicine – but let us extend this to rural Alberta, to the North and create between linkages for our pioneers.

Leverage the SuperNet to be more than “something to do with computers”. Invest in innovative uses of the SuperNet to build effective “across Alberta” communities of practice and knowledge networks in all of the areas that matter to the future of Alberta – learning, health, organizational development, non profits, support for seniors, culture, arts, music, information, environment, energy, the future of work.

Create a tax environment that stimulates private sector research and development, venture capital investment in small business and supports the growth of home based working, enables communities to match funds raised for projects that matter to them. Think through with our bank just how we can help the retiring owners of a small business transfer that ownership without over burdening the new owners. We do some of this already, we need to do more.

Finally, connect all of these pieces into a strong, compelling vision for the future of Alberta as a Province that leads North America, but is also an effective and leading partner in the confederation that is Canada. Show the world how to use wealth, natural resources, innovation and smart people to create a society which is passionate, compassionate and focused in its use of skills. Show a society that makes a difference to the lives of Albertans by being connected, engaged and devolved.

This is the real leadership challenge we should be attending to.

The UN is dead...see my piece below..
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The Next Pope..

Benedict is alive and well, but my favourite online bookie store - www.paddypower.com - isnt taking any chances, and has already opened the book on the outcome of the next conclave. Favourite at this stage, and we have to admit its very early betting, is the 6-1 Cardinal of Venice, Cardinal Angelo Scola. But the more interesting odds are:

1. Bono 1000-1 (which means, someone has actually placed cash on this). Given his antics over Africa, it is a possibility!

2. My favourite, but only as the best funny candidate in a long time, is Father Dougal Maguire of Craggy Island - from the comedy TV series.., also at 1000-1

I called my friend at Paddypower (someone I went to school with) and he said that Arnie is also 1000-1...he is Catholic..

See http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=show_type_by_main_market&category=SPECIALS&ev_class_id=45&id=520 for current odds.

The other novelty bet I took a look at concerns who will win the Nobel Prize for Peace - bets that are interesting here are:

1. Bono 7-1 (Bob Geldof is at 16-1 - guess its Bono's singing voice that makes the difference).

2. Tony Blair and George Bush are both at 250-1

So, if Bono doesnt become Pope he has a shot at the Nobel prize..

Hmmm...

The UN is Dead...

There is strong and compelling evidence that the United Nations, as an organization, has run its course. After sixty years. it is no longer effective either in preventing humanitarian disaster, mitigating conflict, intervening in states that are failing or focusing governments on environmental issues or issues associated with energy and water. Its time to close the UN and start again.

Some say that the UN can be reformed. Indeed, it could. But there comes a time in the life of an organization when reform is akin to moving the deck-chairs on the titanic in the hope that doing so will stave off disaster. Reforms will be tried – Koffi Anand, himself mired in scandal, is seeking to try them now. They are not likely to make effective an organization which, for decades, has been ineffective.

Four cases point to the major problems. First, humanitarian aid. Niger has been desperately seeking aid for some time and the UN called for this aid in a timely fashion. Almost nothing happened. It takes sustained journalism, especially television journalism, to make a difference. This usually occurs when it is too late. Niger is today’s example. One can work back in history and look at many others. The UN exalts others to act. They rarely do so. Even when they act, they often now do not do so through the UN. There are also questions about the extent to which UN aid actually reaches the people who need it most.

Second, failing states. Zimbabwe is a failing state. Its corrupt government has pursued policies which have destroyed the economy, persecuted its political opposition, denied access to power on ethnic lines and destabilized the region. No serious UN action has been taken. There are other failing states, Zimbabwe is the most obvious. Worse, the UN is largely silent on Zimbabwe – and silence can be seen as a form of complicity.

Third, preventing conflict. Despite the best efforts of the UN, several of its major contributors (Britain, US, Australia, Spain, Italy included) invaded Iraq and pursued the doctrine of pre-emptive strike. Both the action and the doctrine challenge the UN’s role. While many, especially the French, opposed the war in Iraq, the UN’s failure to support the war did nothing to prevent it. While the extent of conflict is in decline, most commentators suggest that this is more about trade and nationhood than about the work of the UN.

Fourth, anticipating the future. The UN was a significant player in the Kyoto accord, but it is itself an example of failure. Rather than making a substantial difference to climate change and to pollution, the accord is a set of compromise arrangements which permit governments to speak of climate while using carbon trading credits to avoid having to take action. Even if it were fully implemented, Kyoto would have a very marginal impact on the problem – delaying the full impact of global warming by just six years. There are no agreements on other major issues of supply – water, energy and food – which will increasingly challenge us in the coming decades, with water being the most critical of these issues. For half of the same cost as the Kyoto implementation, every person in the world could have guaranteed access to clean drinking water.

There are other issues. The UN is unwieldy and slow. It has as member States which should be outlawed rather than encouraged – Zimbabwe (which, ironically, is co-chair with Libya of the human rights council of the UN) is one example. It is said to be corrupt, and the “food for oil from Iraq” inquiry will probably demonstrate that it is. It has poor leadership and very poor middle management. It is expensive. One could go on.

If the UN ceased operations, would the world need something in its place? The world would benefit from several structures - specialized global agencies for humanitarian aid (possibly a non governmental agencies global council), conflict resolution (a G21 with the aim of fostering peace and managing peacekeeping), foresight and challenge about the future. Many of the structures needed to do the actual work of the UN are already in place and funds which would have gone to the UN would be better used by these more focused agencies.

If the UN ceased operations, would the world be a safer place? It would be no more or less safe than it is now, since the UN is largely ineffective in preventing conflict. Assuming that the G21 could be created and manage peacekeeping activities, supported by regional alliances, it may actually be safer since action could be taken much more quickly.

What would we miss if the UN ceased operations? It is an interesting question. We would miss the spectacle of an ineffective debating chamber in which promises are made and are not kept. We have enough of these already.

Walking while Talking

I got to wondering, how far do I travel in a workshop ? You know, if I convert the steps I take into km, what distance do I travel.

Just found out I did 4.6km this morning while teaching between 0830 and noon. That's pretty close to the daily target..

Hmm...

The Apter-Deselles residence, for which many thanks....
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More typical (Murgatroyd) scenes from France..
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On Rue Tatin... the house...
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When you think of France, you think of...
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en France

So, despite the best efforts of the TGWU union in Britain, we managed to get back from Paris, via Birmingham and Heathrow, Vancouver and stations west to Edmonton after spending 12 days in Bayeux and Normandy. What a nice place.

We had the privilege of staying in Professor Michael Apter and Dr Mitzi Desselles place in Bayeux. Built in 1740 (or thereabouts), it is a former palatial residence / boarding school and now a set of elegant apartments.

The region itself is lovely, with a long history of apples, Calvados, mussels and seafood, D-Day landings, and a well known tapestry, which is exquisite.

Read several books, including On Rue Tatin - an account of a chef moving from the US to Louvier (nr Paris) and opening a cooking school....so we popped in...

Also saw the cathedrals at Rouen, Bayeux, Louvier and St Michel.

Beeches (Juno, Gold, Omaha) from the D Day landings...



A good time was had by all. Now back to my new life as a journalist, writer and management consultant.

Pudding Noir

I am just finishing a week in the UK, working with colleagues on a summer school for MBA students. Touring factories (Siemens, BMW Mini Plant), lecturing, sharing, pushing, cajoling, learning, listening, laughing, drinking and other things ending in "ing".

Always surprises me how little many know about the UK, though this group had done their homework. Its the small things - language, history, food..

A good time was had by all.

For me, the trip around BMW's production centre for the Mini car was by far the most rewarding couple of hours. Some 600 cars a day are produced in the worlds state of the art, robotic-associate centre - each car customed made with parts from Brazil (engines), Romania (wiring) and some 58 other countries. A simply excellent process, which reminds us all what a global supply chain looks like.

The other nice thing was meeting up with old friends - Clare Hannah and Mike LeGoff - and blowing the breeze (or in the case of Clare, drinking down the sunshine).

Anyway, next is France. I gather that the security status in Paris has been moved from "hide" to "run" (joke) and that the pudding noir is all ready to go. So Bayeux it is.

Got my first job on a pay by word contract today - this time for a seniors magazine - getting on with it eh...

Canada Going Going On

Sitting at the airport in Ottawa, having had time with some 40 MBA students exploring the future of Canada, I am struck by how few of them have a broad understanding of Canada's predicament. Here we are, without doubt a great nation to experience and live in, quietly starting to see our place in the world erode rapidly.

Like: (a) productivity growth in Canada is now zero; (b) competitiveness is declining; (c) we are ranked 27th out of 30 in innovative capacity by OECD; (d) Goldman Sachs stuff suggests that we will provide less than 1% of GDP (closer to 0.75) by 2025; (e) though a small nation, we produce 4% of the world's S&T (therefore importaing more than we produce).....and the list goes on.

Some of my colleagues at the Edmonton Journal (for which I now write a column on a regular basis) dont get it either - if it isnt productivity, we'd find something else.

Reality: Canada is falling.
Possibility: Canada could chose to face up to this, act decisevely and chose to lead the 21dt Century by showing the world what a new 21st century focused state is like.
Odds: Low for Canada to show courage and leadersship
Probability: More of the same

- sad, eh ?

On the Road..

For thirty years I have been travelling - first in the UK, then in Europe and then throughout North America, India, Africa and Asia. My father travelled rarely, except for the War. In his last days he went to Malta, and loved it. In fact his last holiday the week before he died was in Malta.

But as one gets older, it gets to be more of a pain. The flight - Air Canada ("we're not happy till you're not happy" is their motto) have stopped serving food between Edmonton and Ottawa (3.5 hours). The baggage handlers are slower than ever and dont bother in Ottawa indicating which of the two hoppers your luggage will come out of. Taxi drivers are no fun, mainly since they dont speak English, dont know where they are going and dont help. But I could go on..

What is intersting is that I know how to use my travel time. Thanks to the iPod, I have fantastic musical choices (+ audio books, comedy etc), I had some interesting magazines - a very interesting piece on how cancer research is basically going down a blind ally - and I had some writing to do.

I am Ottawa for a few days and then over to the UK - assuming its still there. Then France - Bayeux (tapestries and things..)

Wonderful - thanks Barry Hopson and Mike Scally..
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Bin Surfing...
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You've got to love the fitness thing!
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The Red States Letter from Anonymous

[Couldn't resist sharing this...thanks to Mike Scally]

Dear Red States

We're ticked off at the way you've treated California, and we've decided we're leaving. We intend to form our own country, and we're taking the other Blue States with us.

In case you aren't aware, that includes Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois and all the Northeast.

We believe this split will be beneficial to the nation, and especially to the people of the new country of New California.

To sum up briefly: You get Texas, Oklahoma and all the slave states. We get stem cell research and the best beaches. We get Elliot Spitzer. You get Ken Lay.We get the Statue of Liberty. You get OpryLand.

We get Intel and Microsoft. You get WorldCom.We get Harvard. You get Ole' Miss.We get 85 percent of America's venture capital and entrepreneurs. You get Alabama.

We get two-thirds of the tax revenue, you get to make the red states pay their fair share.Since our aggregate divorce rate is 22 percent lower than the Christian Coalition's, we get a bunch of happy families. You get a bunch of single moms.

Please be aware that Nuevo California will be pro-choice and anti-war, and we're going to want all our citizens back from Iraq at once. If you need people to fight, ask your evangelicals. They have kids they're apparently willing to send to their deaths for no purpose, and they don't care if you don't show pictures of their children's caskets coming home.We do wish you success in Iraq, and hope that the WMDs turn up, but we're not willing to spend our resources in Bush's Quagmire.

With the Blue States in hand, we will have firm control of 80 percent of the country's fresh water, more than 90 percent of the pineapple and lettuce, 92 percent of the nation's fresh fruit, 95 percent of America's quality wines (you can serve French wines at statedinners) 90 percent of all cheese, 90 percent of the high tech industry, most of the U.S. low-sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools, plus Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Cal Tech and MIT.

With the Red States, on the other hand, you will have to cope with 88 percent of all obese Americans (and their projected health care costs), 92 percent of all U.S. mosquitoes, nearly 100 percent of the tornadoes, 90 percent of the hurricanes, 99 percent of all Southern Baptists, virtually 100 percent of all televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia.

We get Hollywood and Yosemite, thank you. Additionally, 38 percent of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually swallowed by a whale, 62 percent believe life is sacred unless we're discussing the death penalty or gun laws, 44 percent say that evolution is only a theory, 53 percent that Saddam was involved in 9/11 and 61 percent of you crazy bastards believe you are people with higher morals then we lefties.

By the way, we're taking the good pot, too.You can have that dirt weed they grow in Mexico.

Sincerely,

Author Unknown in New California.

This is what I look like when the rejection slips arrive...I think it is some kind of sudden impact syndrome...anyway, I soon get over it..
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Writer at large...or just looking large..
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Our Man in Havana ? No, its me in Montego Bay!
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A Concert(ed) Effort for Africa ?

We will likely enjoy the concerts Sir Bob Geldof and others are organizing around the world, including the one in Toronto. There will be some good music, a sense of people doing the right thing and some interesting antics on stage. Live8 will be a success, at least in terms of entertainment.

But what of its core purpose? According to Sir Bob, the aim is to put pressure on the G8 leaders to improve aid, cancel debts and ease trade restrictions that have an impact on Africa. He has called for a long march from the concert venue to Edinburgh where the G8 leaders will be meeting to draw attention to these issues and has encouraged young people to leave school for the week following the concert to join this march.

The London concert is problematic. Originally there were to be no African bands. N'Dour is the only major African artist due to perform at any of the five concerts announced earlier this month. Some other black artists have now been added to the roster to ensure that there are some non white people on stage. As one African musician put it "If African artists aren't given a chance, how are they going to sell records and take the message back to Africa?". It looks very much like a showcase for ageing musicians who miss the big crowds who used to pack in to their concerts.

But there are more fundamental concerns. The campaign, of which these concerts are a part, seeks to end poverty in Africa. It is concerned that global trade, debt and insufficient and ineffective aid all cause poverty which is then exacerbated by "inappropriate" economic policies. Here they are dead wrong.

Substantial sums of aid has been supplied to African countries since the post war period. As one leading African specialist has said “if aid was the solution to Africa’s problems, it would be a rich continent by now”. The problem with aid is corrupt governments. Millions of dollars have been siphoned by corrupt officials into their own bank accounts and squandered on military adventures and lost causes – Mugabe, Mobutu and Abacha come to mind as the more recent recalcitrants here, but they are not the only ones. In some countries, corruption is not unusual, it is the norm. The G8 finance ministers have just agreed to “double aid for Africa”. Yet this aid is not likely to make any more difference than the aid previously provided. The US has this right – proper governance before aid is a better strategy.

Canceling debt is a second plank of Geldof’s platform. 23 African countries are getting debt relief through the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) program. So far, this means they have an extra billion dollars a year to spend on health care and education. Others are in line to receive this. In this sense this campaign has worked. But the reality is that few countries granted debt relief were paying their debt bills and not all of the countries affected by debt use relief wisely – once again, the issue is governance.

It also needs to be remembered that Africa is the home of five of the worlds fastest growing economies. In 2004, economic output in sub-Saharan Africa grew by 5.1 percent, the highest in almost a decade. In the countries where oil production increased in 2004—Equatorial Guinea, Chad, and Angola—economic growth was particularly strong. Output in Ethiopia grew by 11.6 percent as a result of agricultural recovery after the country received relief from a prolonged drought. African countries are rich in natural resources, now in high demand due to the expansion of the global economy and the growth in trade. Free trade and focused efforts to secure sound economic strategies for African countries are needed.

This leads directly to the issue of trade. It is a scandal that agriculture in the developed world (most especially the US and EU) is so heavily subsidized. Currently, economic studies place the average subsidy at US$17,000/year for European farmers, and US$16,000/year for U.S. farmers. The subsidies are mainly in the form of tax reductions and very low prices for water. Between 1995 and 2002, the U.S. government awarded US$114 billion in agricultural subsidies. France alone has received EU subsidies of US$126billion over the last decade, even though French farmers account for less than 4% of the workforce. What this leads to is over production, dumping of surplus products at less than cost and protectionism. This is why the World Trade Organization continues to declare specific farm subsidies illegal – for example, WTO ruled in 2004 that $3 Billion in US cotton subsidies violate trade agreements and almost 50% of EU sugar exports are illegal. Removing farm subsidies, a key message from Geldof, is the right thing to do and which is already under discussions in WTO talks, where some progress was made readying the WTO for settlement in 2006. Freer markets, more real competition and global trade would be a significant help to African countries.

But globalization and trade are seen by Geldof and others as a part of the problem for Africa rather than part of the solution. Here too, Geldof has it wrong. It is the very fact of trade and the increasing ability of people and organizations to trade globally that holds out the promise for Africa. If we remove trade barriers and artificial constraints on trade, such as fare trade and clean trade, then we can provide opportunities for African companies to get their goods to market. India used to be seen as a poor country, but will soon emerge as one of the leading economies of the world with a per capital income equal to or greater than that of the UK by 2025. How has it done this? Good government, a systematic approach to economic development and trade and embracing global markets. If there are trade barriers, they need to be reduced or removed. What Geldof’s lobby is proposing is special treatment for African goods and priority access to markets (also known as protectionism), thereby distorting trade.

Then we have AIDS, Malaria and other infectious diseases – a most serious long term problem for Africa. Britain, as part of its package of Africa measures, has proposed new funds for African countries to buy new medicines to fight these diseases. This is a most sensible proposal, and will make a significant difference, most especially since the money would not go to Governments.

Long term, water and energy issues are major factors for the future of Africa. The key strategy for water should be to privatize it – when this occurred in Chile, the proportion of households with clean piped water rose from 63% to 99% in towns and from 27% to 94% in rural areas. In Africa, the private sector would likely be more accountable, less corrupt and required to deliver to survive. Not what Geldof has in mind.

In terms of energy, Africa burns “dirty” fuels such as wood and dung, since other forms of energy have been priced out of the reach of ordinary people. Again, government corruption and inefficiency are at the heart of this problem. Nuclear power, hydro power and other forms of energy are needed in Africa.

In the end, people who engage in the Live8 concerts and their related “side shows” will have more awareness of issues, but their “solutions” will miss the point. The focus should be on eradicating communicable diseases, clean water, effective energy and the expansion of free trade. This focus, together with the requirement for competent government, would be a stronger one than a focus on aid and debt. This is not, however, the Geldof agenda.

Meanwhile, the butcher-King of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, has bulldozed 200,000 people out of their illegal dwellings and forced them to live in the bush or on land seized from white farmers. Mugabe calls this "Operation Murambatsvina [Drive out rubbish]". It is a further example of him trampling human rights and causing economic chaos. If anyone wants to see what is really wrong with Africa, look to Zimbabwe. I doubt that Mugabe will tune in to Live8.

Canada and Immigration

Canada always seemed like a successful twentieth century nation. It was productive, recognized as a peacemaker and a significantly different kind of country from the US. It was also a place for innovation – a vibrant, energizing and practical country. In addition to wonderful vistas, Canada seemed to have the trick of being a multicultural melting pot where ideas became possibilities and racial tensions, though occasional, were rare.

The twenty first century finds Canada in a very different place. Economically, we are struggling to compete in a world where the rules have changed and we are losing ground to competitors, including China and India. We are losing the productivity battle, having fallen from 2nd to 13th in the OECD productivity league. Despite the fact that Canada is strong in science and technology, we lead the world only in a few areas and our innovation system is vulnerable. While we remain strong in natural resources - especially oil, coal, water, agricultural land and fibre - we are slow to compete in a growingly knowledge based, value added economy.

We are also losing our place in the world. Our peacekeeping role, once the pride of the United Nations, has shrunk. The top ten peacekeeping nations in terms of troop contributions to UN missions are Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ghana, India, Ethiopia, South Africa, Uruguay, Jordan and Kenya. Canada ranks thirty-third. Our government’s response to the 2004 tsunami was slow and marginal. We have a low level of influence over key players in the systems of global trade, as continuing trade disputes with the EU, Japan and the US show. Canada is a respected, but largely third division player in the global game of politics and economics.

Socially we are already struggling. Our basic demographics are such that, by 2020, all economic growth in Canada will come from immigration: we will be dependent on more productive, creative and entrepreneurial immigrants to sustain our standard of living. This has already beginning to happen in several major cities – Toronto, Vancouver, Abbotsford, Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal, for example - and Canada seems to have developed a reputation for being able to handle multicultural society, though occasional racial incidents do occur. Maintaining this reputation will be a difficult challenge.

There is a history of cultural communities - shaped by shared histories, origins and language - to form unique locales within fast growing cities, providing the "identify base and home" for different ethnic groups. Richmond BC is home to "little Asia" and Millwoods is Edmonton's "little India". While these communities are welcoming, they have their own rhythms and ways of working.

When we quadruple immigration and begin to receive more refugees fleeing their home countries for environmental reasons (climate change, natural disasters and water shortages will lead to more migration), health reasons (food supply, access to health care) or as a result of poverty, conflict and ethnic tensions these cultural zones will grow. They will have their own businesses, newspapers, identities and rights of practice. They will begin to demand more cultural rights - e.g. the right to exercise Shiria law, already the subject of debate and decision in the Quebec legislature. In particular, religious rights and language rights will become a source of conflict and tension.

This will lead to immigration becoming a major political issue within the next decade, as it already is in Holland, Britain and Australia. At the heart of the immigration issue will be two things. First, the growing economic power of recent immigrants. Second, the integration of immigrants into the culture of their "new" home nation.

In Canada by 2020 the economic wealth of immigrants will contrast sharply with the wealth of many native born Canadians, depending on the level of their post secondary education. In Alberta, for example, where the number of high school students flowing through to College or University is low, more immigrants will take high paying jobs in Universities and Colleges, health care and "knowledge industries" and will have a significant role in the shaping of company and organizational strategy. As more "manufacturing" and "service" jobs move offshore - attracted by low cost economies - it will be "expert knowledge and skills" which will secure high income. Given the volume of engineers, doctors and other specialists being produced in China, India, Pakistan, Philippines, Brazil (China already produces more electrical engineers than the US and India produces 260,000 engineers each year) we can expect significant immigration from these countries. Well-educated Canadians will do well, but the entrepreneurial spirit and productivity of many immigrants will be high, making them more attractive employees.

With only two people in the workforce to support each retired person (down from four in the 1990’s) by 2020, taxation, health care and support for seniors will also be major political issues. Immigrants will begin to question the level of taxation they are required to pay so as to sustain an economy which they did not shape. They will look for alternatives to “more of the same” for health care and other public services, especially since more of them will have experiences (positive and negative) of these alternatives. They will challenge all levels of Government to think differently and it will happen first in those metropolitan areas where foreign-born citizens are the fastest growing portion of the population.

The situation in the US is very different. The base population of the US will stabilise at around 300m by 2050, according to the US Census Bureau. Immigration, which has been growing rapidly since the reforms in the mid 1960’s, will take the population to between 400 and 500m. Mexico will be a major provider of these new citizens, and many of the new immigrants will not speak English at all (some 5.6m Americans are unable to do so in 2000, this will grow to around 50m by 2050). Many new immigrants are unskilled or low skilled, making only a marginal contribution to the economy - which would also be the case in Canada if we simply doubled immigration without focusing on skills and competencies needed for economic growth[i]. The US immigration problem will be explosive, in Canada it will be a significant source of political tension.

The faith base of many communities will shift. The spread of Islam and the growth of fundamentalist religions of all shades will have an impact on the way in which we lead our lives. Already, France and Britain have had to face up to challenges to dress codes in schools, to freedoms rightly earned by women and to religious traditions. We have already seen this in Canada. We no longer publicly celebrate Christmas - we refer to the period December 24th - 26th as "the holidays" so as not to offend non-Christians. Many organizations have banned the display of Christmas trees for this same reasons and schools in several jurisdictions can no longer perform nativity plays.

Chinese is now officially the third language of Canada (Census 2001). There are a growing number of television and print media in the language of minorities. These will become very influential in shaping attitudes and values of future generations. Speaking Chinese may become as important as speaking French, especially since China will be the worlds leading trading nation by 2020.

None of this is “bad”. Its just significantly different. We need to do more to help our communities understand different cultures, different religions and the way in which culture and religion shapes values, belief and action. We need to do more to encourage dialogue between different groups focused on key policy questions that will shape our future – health care, the economy, and governance of our institutions. We need to focus our immigration on skills and competencies Canada needs to secure its rightful place for the future. Finally, we all need to recognize that Yogi Berra was right: “the future isn’t what it used to be”. We are in the midst of a major challenge to Canada’s place in the world and we need to work across all boundaries in Canada for us to be succeed. It won’t be easy.

[i] Source: Economic Council of Canada New Faces in the Crowd: The Economic and Social Impacts of Immigration, (Ottawa: Supply and Services Canada, 1991).

Our US Allies and Canada - Explaining Canada..

Most Americans do not understand Canada. This is not surprising. Most Canadians have only a hazy understanding of their own country. What Americans think they know is that Canada is a large, predominantly cold place which has significant natural resources and does not always support the US when it most needs them. Canada sometimes seeks to exploit the US - through "dumping" mad cows and cheap lumber - yet relies on them for defence and prosperity. Canada, to most Americans, is a country that takes rather than gives. While Canada has the respect of the people of many countries - which is why some Americans wear the maple leaf emblem of Canada when they travel - they know that this respect was earned in the past and is now in decline. They can't name the Prime Minister of Canada, but they probably know that Michael J Fox, Lorne Green, Leslie Neilson, Jim Carey, K D Lang and Mike Myers were all once proud Canadians.

In contrast, Canadians see Americans as aggressive, unthinking and the schoolyard bully - a country that acts before it thinks and a country that has economic and military power of which Canadians are fearful. Canadians also see the US as exploiting Canada, being unreasonable about border disputes and preoccupied with security. Canadians worry about the way in which the US enters agreements and then ignores them - the fact that Canada does the same as often as does the US is neither here nor there. Canada looks at the world series and points out that the world is a small place - only American teams compete - and sees this as a symbol of the myopia of the United States. Most of all, Canadians watch US television in preference to their own broadcast systems and then complain about the loss of Canadian culture. 90% of Canadians live within 100km of the US border, yet claim that they have difficulty understanding their neighbours.

To Canadians, the US is like a relative who has been missing from most family gatherings - they show up only when they need something. While we are family - we were both once part of the British Empire and have many social, economic and cultural experiences in common, not least a major border - there are very different family histories, experiences and explanations. In this sense, Canada sees the US as moving from being a brother or sister to becoming a cousin and, post Iraq, second cousin once removed.

Canada Needs the US

The US needs Canada but Canada needs the US more. Canada depends on the US for its economic prosperity. In 2003, two-way trade in goods and services surpassed $400 billion, making the U.S.–Canada trading relationship the largest in the world. Daily some $1.2b worth of goods pass between the two countries. The U.S. sold $195.8 billion worth of goods and services to Canada and received $245.8 billion worth of goods and services from Canada. Some 37,000 trucks cross the border between the two countries each and every day - over 8 million in a year. Over 80% of all Canadian exports go to the US. Of this over 40% of U.S. trade with Canada is intra-firm, that is, trade occurring between parts of the same firm operating on both sides of the border. The automotive industry is a prime example of this integration: every vehicle assembled in North America now contains nearly $1,250 of Canadian-made parts.

While Canada is dependent on the US for its economic well being, these data show that there is a growing co-dependency: Canada's well being is in the economic interest of the US, since so many US jobs are now linked to trade with Canada. Thirty-seven states count Canada as their number one foreign customer; Canada is the most important destination of exports for most of the states along the border as well as the northeast and central U.S., and as far south as Missouri and Georgia. Twenty-three states sent more than one-quarter of their exports to Canada in 2003. Since the implementation of the Canada–U.S. Free Trade Agreement in 1989 and the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, there has been a dramatic increase in this two-way interdependence between the two economies. U.S. exports bound for Canada more than doubled between 1989 and 2003, from approximately $80 billion to $170 billion. Over the same period, U.S. imports from Canada increased from $90 billion to $227billion.

Now that Canadian productivity is falling - it used to be ranked second in the OECD behind the US and is now ranked 13th - the US provides best practice models and management expertise to restore the effectiveness of Canadian firm performance. Further, as the war for talent rages between the developed countries of the world, the integrated economies of the two countries provide a basis for talent sharing and expertise networking unrivalled in the world.

Canada also needs to partner with the US for defence. Canada has been through a number of lean years in terms of investment in people and equipment for its military. But this is changing. From 2006 Canada will deploy up to four task forces of 1,000 personnel equipped with some of the best equipment in the world. Well trained, focused and resourced, these troops will provide defence, peacekeeping and perform other duties largely in partnership with NATO or other countries. But modern warfare is less about troop deployment and more about intelligence gathering and fighting a different kind of enemy. Here Canada and the US need to co-operate to fight terrorism and to defend ourselves, through NORAD, against rouge states.

The US Needs Canada

What Canada has in abundance are natural resources. In particular, energy and water. If Exxon Mobil's prediction that Hubbert's Peak - the point at which oil resources begin their steady decline - will be reached in 2010, then Canada becomes strategically important to the US as a major sustainable and friendly oil supplier. Canada has both conventional and unconventional (oil sands) resources that will provide energy for many years to come and could replace Saudi Arabia as the major source of oil for North America in the future. Alberta's oil sands deposits contain 174.5 billion barrels of reserves, according to the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board. That total is two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's proven reserves of 262 billion barrels.

By 2030 companies will produce 10.1 million barrels of oil a day from projects in Canada and Qatar, more than Saudi Arabia does today, according to forecasts by the International Energy Agency in Paris. That's 8 percent of the world's total. Canada's oil sands may get $95 billion of investment by 2020, according to Canada's National Energy Board, four times more than the amount spent in the decade ending in 2003. As part of that, Imperial Oil Ltd., controlled by Exxon, said in November 2004 it may pay $6.5 billion to double its capacity to produce oil from tar sands.

Canada is also rich in water. Estimates of Canada's supply of fresh water vary from 5.6 per cent to nine per cent to 20 per cent of the world's supply, depending on how one defines "fresh water" – whether it means "available," "usable," or merely "existing." One study says Canada has 20 per cent of the world's fresh water – ranking it at the top – but only nine per cent of "renewable" fresh water. Whatever the numbers, water is available in Canada and will continue to be available for a considerable time. The question is whether this water is a commodity or a matter of public ownership and trust. The fear is that it will be defined as a commodity, exported to the US and we will become environmentally poorer as a result.

The US needs Canada for more than its natural resources. Canadian scientist and technologists are at least as inventive than their US counterparts or more so, at least according to data from the National Research Council of Canada. Canada patents more inventions per researcher than the US. What Canada is not good at is taking these inventions to market - this is where the US benefits. Canadians invent, US commercializes. While some see this as exploitation, it is in fact an effective way of getting ideas to market.

We Need Each Other

The reality is that Canada and the US are co-dependents in the North American family. During the next fifteen years, the relationship will be tested in a number of ways.

First, when China challenges the US for economic supremacy (with India challenging for third place), what is it that the North American family will do to ameliorate the tension and strengthen free trade ? Canada could be a significant influence here, since the driver of China's economy are natural resources which Canada has in abundance.

Second, when the next terrorist attack on US soil comes and the terrorists are seen to have entered by means of Canada, what will be the response of the US? If it is to aggressively close the border without really trying to understand the facts - exactly what has happened to the border in relation to beef and mad cow disease - Canada will see this as a betrayal. If the security partnership is not strong enough to prevent such an attack, it needs strengthening. Punishment of Canada would not be an appropriate response.

Third, when Hubbert's Peak does arrive and Saudi oil supplies begin to dwindle, what attitude will the US take to the abundance of oil in Canada and how aggressive will it be in securing that oil ? This issue is of grave concern to Canadians (as are the same concerns over water) and the current aggressive strategy of the US does not help to create a climate of trust. When coupled with Canadian concerns over the environment - Canadian's rank this as the second most important issue for their country after the management of health care - the US looks like a tough talking, gun wielding "big brother". The US needs to develop a sustainable energy strategy in partnership with Canada to alleviate these fears.

Building Stronger US:Canada Relationships

Relationships between Canada and the US are currently strained. Disputes over softwood lumber, the border closure for live ruminants (mainly beef), a festering dispute over spring wheat and other irritants all need faster resolution. What irks Canadians is that NAFTA and WTO panels keep ruling in Canada’s favour, but nothing changes. If family feuds fester, then the family suffers.

If faster dispute resolution is one step that needs to be taken, then another is a joint agreement on security. Canada keeps being blind-sided by US decisions on security, the most recent being that no aircraft can fly over US airspace without a complete passenger manifest being fully disclosed to US authorities. This radically affects the way in which Canadian airlines operate and yet the announcement was made without the engagement of those most affected. Similar decisions have been made about border controls and passports. It just looks like one part of the family has given up talking to the other.

Given the importance of environmental issues to Canadians and many US citizens and a general dislike of governmental regulation that is common to both countries, the development of a systematic approach to climate change, pollution, energy and water issues would be a breakthrough for Canada US relations and is worth struggling for. Many Canadians, especially in Alberta, think George Bush was right not to sign on to Kyoto but look now for leadership over the alternative response.

Whatever Happened to John Hurt?

John Hurt is a powerful actor who can command a screen with his eyes and determine a character with the degree of gravel in his voice. He can play irony, anger, jealousy, misery, quizzical and pathos. He can support, lead or play in an actors team. He is a consummate actor, making just a few character choices which were, being generous, unfortunate – Heaven’s Gate (1980), Champions (1984) and Even Cow Girls Get the Blues (1993) to name three. His screen-work set the tone for several films and ensured their artistic success, if not their commercial well being.

He established successful roles in A Man for All Seasons (1966), 10 Rillington Place (1971), The Naked Civil Servant (1975), The Elephant Man (1980) and as Max in Midnight Express (1978) – these established him as an actor of substance, one who could carry complex, sometimes menacing and often sharp roles; roles which demanded more than looks, gesture and tone. But it has been his careful and studied exploration of character in these and in films such as White Mischief (1987) and New Blood (1999). His conscious pursuit of depth and meaning in the characters he plays has made him a great character actor, deserving of more recognition.

In Miranda (2002) – a quirky Film Four film – he played a quietly menacing manipulator of reality, the puppet master of a woman who “owed him” while he stage-managed property sales of buildings he didn’t own. The effectiveness of this character was his simplicity and directness.

In a made for TV film, Bait (2002) he played an aggrieved bereaved father out to understand the murder of his daughter. Lonely – a characteristic of several parts – and yet deviantly engaged, he unravels and in doing so uncovers the mystery of his daughters death, but risks the lives of others in doing so. This simple, yet effective story, is made all the more real by the depth of character revealed by Hurt at each stage of the drama.


He has still more to do. He would make an interesting screen Lear, in a modern adaptation. He would be a powerful politician, playing out a modern conflict when challenged to make decisions in real time. He would make an effective media baron, facing bankruptcy in a slightly more interesting factional account of Conrad Black.

He continues to work hard – in 2005 he has already completed five films and one film voice over, making him a much sought after actor. The film to watch from the current batch will be The Proposition, with Guy Pearce, Ray Winstone and Liam Neeson. Set in the Australian outback, written by rock star Nick Cave (who also created the music) and directed by John Hillcoat (Ghosts of the Civil Dead and To Have and To Hold), it should be a powerful, emotional Australian “western” film - Australia’s answer to the shot in Alberta Clint Eastwood movie Unforigiven (1992).

Also due this year, now in post production, is the film Shooting Dogs directed by Michael Caton-Jones (who directed Hurt in Rob Roy and Scandal). In this based on fact story, Hurt plays a tired and weary Catholic priest dealing with an imaginative, youthful English teacher. Set in Kigali, Rwanda, the story tells of the struggle between an Africa weary old man and an ideologically excitable young one at the time of the UN’s worst days in Rwanda. Hurt, by all accounts, is believable as he struggles with the dreadful experiences around him while trying to keep others focused and safe. An ideal role for Hurt.


At sixty five, John Hurt is still young enough to play some major roles and old enough to have the maturity to do so.

Where's Bill ?

Walking is one of life's pleasures. Fortunately, Edmonton has an outstanding trail system which includes river walks and walks up and down the hills in the McTaggart Sanctuary, which is where we were on Sunday. Its a 12km hike of over 16,000 steps with some hill climbing. Nice.
It was also a great day - around 22 degrees, but there is a lot of shade on the walk, so it was never too hot.

The walk was organized by the Weskahagen Trail association - a walking club we joined 2.5 years ago which maintains a substantial trail around the region.

Around 30 people showed up and off we went. At the lunch break someone suddenly asked "where's Bill ?" and Bill was no where to be found. An experienced group back tracked our walk to see if he was there while the rest began the return journey. En route we bumped into some mountain bikers who claimed to have seen Bill (they described him well without any prompting), so we became confident he would be back at the car park.

He wasn't. So once again experienced walkers set off to look.

I don't know whether they found him - we helped to get 3 other people back home - but we will post news next week. Meanwhile, a lot of people could Kill Bill.

Why Canada Could Fail

The following will appear in The Edmonton Journal on Monday, 30th May (with edits):

Winston Churchill was always excited about visiting Canada. He found it a vast and rich land full of hope and possibility - a place where "there are no limits to the majestic future which lies before the mighty expanse of Canada with its virile, aspiring, cultured, and generous-hearted people". But now Canada is unfocused and unable to realize its potential. Worse, it looks like it is a nation that is drifting - directionless and unable to harness the energies of its enthusiastic people around a set of common goals for its future.

This article will speak to the six major challenges facing Canada and indicate the consequences of our failing to deal with them.

Issue 1: The Canadian Eco System

Canada's climate is changing. This will have a significant impact on agriculture, fishing, forestry, climate and land use. There will also be changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme events - ice storms and other freak weather conditions - which would have serious implications for the security and integrity of Canada’s natural resources, social systems, and infrastructure.

To make matters worse, Canada will face a set of serious issues in relation to water, energy and environmental contamination. The City of Calgary - one of the fastest growing areas in North America - has already allocated most of its water resources; conventional energy resources are being depleted and while we have an abundance of oil in the oil sands there are significant environmental costs in getting it to market. We also have significant contamination liabilities that we have accumulated since the second world war and appear reluctant to deal with them.

Modest goals, an unwillingness to tackle fundamental issues and lukewarm support for Kyoto are all symptoms of a weak Canadian response to a very serious set of problems. Doing the right thing by the environment is good for business and good for Canada. We should focus and act.

Issue 2: Immigration and Demographics

In 2001, Canada’s population was 31 million. The population is projected to reach 36.2 million by 2026. As the nation moves further into the present century Canada’s natural growth rate will be just under 0.6%.

Canada will rely on immigration to sustain its economic development. Indeed, the Conference Board of Canada indicated at the start of the present Century that, by 2025 “immigration will account for all population growth.”

In other countries which rely on immigration to sustain their economic well being, immigration is a major political issue - look at Australia, Holland and Britain. Canada needs to do much more to prepare itself for changing demographics and substantially increased immigration if it is to avoid race and immigration being divisive and potentially damaging issues, especially in Ontario, BC and Quebec.

Issue 3: Standard of Living

American workers on average produce more than $6,000 per person in goods and services than their Canadian counterparts. The reason for this, the Conference Board of Canada suggests, is that overall labour productivity in Canada is 18% less than the US.

The gap in productivity between Canada and the US is not new. Between 1989-1999 the standard of living of US workers grew at nearly twice the rate of their Canadian counterparts. In comparison to fellow OECD member countries, Canada has fallen from second place in productivity behind the US to thirteenth over the last decade. Inward investment in Canada has also fallen in this same period.

Many commentators have provided reasonable explanations for these developments, but they also miss the point. Unless we improve the competitiveness and efficiency of our industry and government, our standard of living will fall. As it falls, so talented and able people leave for the lure of better standards of living elsewhere, making productivity gains more difficult to achieve.

Canada has no single champion for innovation, productivity and competitiveness and there is a distinct lack of leadership around this issue, which will eventually affect us all.


Issue 4: Government Spending

Governments, whether local, Provincial or Federal, are currently in a spending mode. They are spending more of our money on things they claim that most of us want and at the same time using our money to pay down debt.

So far, the present Federal Government have not shown strong leadership in budget terms. According to the Fraser Institute, the last two Liberal budgets have been "a mish-mash of program announcements, a dearth of tax relief, and very little in the way of an overarching vision". The same can be said for almost all Provincial and Municipal budgets. More spending will eventually lead to more taxation.

Alberta, rich in revenues and debt free, is avoiding dealing with real issues, preferring instead to mask the situation with endowments, some modest support for post-secondary education and no real radicalism on key issues such as health, the environment and seniors. Cities simply demand more revenue to cope with the every growing urbanization of Canada.

One test for Canada will be how it manages the future of health care, given both the demographics of Canada and the politics of health. Canada needs a fundamental rethink of its attitude to wellness, prevention, standards of care and the resourcing of health services. Despite popular belief, the fundamental problem of health care is not money, it’s imagination.

Issue 5: Our Aboriginal Issues

The Lubicon Land claim has been in dispute now for over sixty years. Land and resources claims by aboriginal groups have halted some of the development proposed for Northern Alberta. There are many other such disputes still awaiting courageous decision making from all levels of Government. It is an embarrassment to Canadian's that such claims remain unresolved. This is just one issue.

The more serious issue is that the number of aboriginal people are growing in the northern and prairie regions of Canada. The aboriginal population is much younger than Canadian groups and will seek a stronger voice in Canadian society in the future. They will also seek stronger economic returns than they have received in the past - in terms of both revenue from the resources on their land and stronger recognition of their self Government rights. Given the presence of so many natural resources on aboriginal land, Canada and the Provinces need to enter into a new relationship with its native peoples if Canada is to have a strong future. While there have been some promising signs of development, the overall the picture seems little changed.

The next generation of aboriginal leaders may not be as patient as the present Indian, Métis and Inuit leaders. We shouldn’t wait to find out. We need to establish a strong, meaningful future for aboriginal people in all areas of Canada and resolve some of the long standing disputes which prevent us all from moving on.


Issue 6: The Structure of the Canadian Federation

The future of Quebec remains a significant issue for many. Recent events have highlighted the fragile "truce" between the forces of separation and the forces of confederation. But if Quebec is one issue, asymmetrical federalism is the other.

While reflecting the significant economic and cultural differences between Provinces is a good thing, doing so with no apparent over-arching rationale governing the decisions being made is another. We end up with patchwork day-care, patchwork health care and expensive human services. The Canadian quilt will quickly become misshaped and undervalued. As it does so, tensions in the federation will rise and disputes will grow.

With richer Provinces now at the tipping point for their future, both the Provinces and the Federation need to be strong. It is weak and weakening as each new unique arrangement is made between Ottawa and one of the Provinces.

This weakness is also seen on the international stage. Canada's response to the tragedy in Darfur, its slow response to the tsunami and its weakening military role in NATO and NORAD are all indications of a country not willing to be bold. Canada, once respected, is losing its position on the global stage.

The Core Issue

The problem is not that we don’t know what it is we need to do for each of these issues. It is that no one is laying out the problems clearly and effectively and no one is championing solutions that make sense. In short, Canada's fundamental problem is the lack of courageous, clear, effective and focused leadership around these six issues which will shape our future. We need to agree that these are the key issues and work together to resolve them. We need visionary and effective leadership if Canada is to emerge as the "linchpin nation" for this century.


Stephen Murgatroyd is a freelance writer and management consultant.
stephenm7608@shaw.ca (780) 993 7784 / (780) 481 1981

I'm an Alberta Blogger

So I have connected this blog (and the one I write which is focused on innovation) to the Alberta Blog site - as a proud Albertan, I see good reason to share ideas, concerns, experiences with my fellow travellers. See http://www.albertablogs.com

The Queen has gone (she looked very well for a 79 year old in full time employment). Can't imagine Charles - who I understand will become King George - doing as good a job, though Camilla will help. Queen was sincere, effective and patient throughout her time in Alberta. Much better than Bono.

Worst Films

Its been a bad week.

First, I was in Calgary and watched Oceans 12. What a pointless piece of rubbish this was. Potentially good actors all of them and not a single decent scene. Terrible script, poor camera work and, well, I dould have fallen asleep at any time.

In fact I did, but I was watching Meet the Fockers. What a total piece of utter and absolute bollocks this was from start to finish. I hope to goodness that this is the last (Meet the Parents was the first).

Some slight, but not much, relief in A Series of Unfortunate Events with Jim Carey, Billy Connolly and so on...

If you are wondering why I am watching movies all the time, I decided to leave the University and freelance for the rest of my life - need to find some $60k a year in fees to pay for the life I lead, so I reckon I should be able to do this. So the plan is to finish in September and then...well, life's a risk. I am debt free, so this helps..

Have You Seen Your Colon Recently ?

Oprah is talking about how people crap - I think the bottom is falling out of television (which is better than a television falling out of your bottom). She is looking at how we crap affects our aging process - according to the guru (dressed n scrubs and purple surgical gloves), we all need to pass gas 14 times a day, we should drop an "s" shape turd daily, and it shouldn't really smell that much. Guess most of the people I know are in trouble on the smellometer test.

The good doctor (whose name is Dr. Oz - he's a kind of wizard, I guess) is now showing used colons - not a big market for these, I think. He is showing a colon that was healthy (guess the owner may be feeling the loss) and one that wasn't. The main difference is the size and porousness of the large colon. He is also showing video of a proctological examination (every mans worst nightmare).

The solution to poor pooping (the polite word for having a crap) is whole grain and more fibre and magnesium (beets, raisins, dates and soybeans or 400mg of magnesium a day in tablet form) and constant monitoring of blood pressure (150/75) - the most important number coming from the body. To illustrate this, our Wizard is showing various used hearts, livers and lungs (where does he get this stuff ?- I guess Chicago has different kind of second hand stores from Edmonton).

Oprah also has Bill Clinton talking about heart attacks and heart disease - he's just had a quad-bypass (how do they do these while the patient is riding around in the countryside?) and looks a lot thinner and older.

Seems to me the best anti-aging device is called wine - a nice red pinot (such as a lovely South African wine which, funnily enough, is called PINNO) seems to me to make me younger. As does sitting next to a lovely lady, enjoying laughter, having a meal where you can taste all of its features (such as the lunch I had today at Il Portico - a great chickpea soup and some nice pasta), listening to some great music, being with family and generally finding life positive rather than negative.

You can support your healthy lifestyle (as just described) with folic acid, eating tomatoes and broccoli, non fat milk and drinking lots of water and aspirin (2 baby ones a day). By the way - coffee is good for you (fights cancer and other diseases).

I feel so healthy, I think I'll open a bottle of Pinot Noir.

Jerk Chicken for Seniors

We had jerk chicken last night in memory of our week in Montego Bay. Nearly blew my head off. Scotch bonnet peppers that make up part of the paste we bought are dangerous things! Talk about weapons of mass destructions - if you made someone eat 10 of these, you'd be done with them.

Popped into Wal Mart yesterday for our annual check up to see what is happening. Made $8. The staff dont give a hoot and charged us the wrong price for two items, so we made $8. They were so laid back you could limbo dance underneath them. I think they had all taken lethargy pills. I also made $5 for a "seniors discount" at the wine store. Must look old (especially after a serious hair cut, for which I got a $2 senior discount). So all in all made $15 in discounts and mistakes. Not a bad day out. It'll help to pay for the new deck furniture.

I had a day of bits and pieces yesterday - couldn't really settle into anything. Read a little - lots of documents about innovative government (around 30 of them) and some futures pieces concerning energy, agriculture, water etc. I am finishing up my work for the National Research Council on the future of innovative development and need to get on with it. It'll come.

Writing is such an interesting process. You intend to do things, but they have to percolate first. When the material is ready, you get it down on paper. Some writers just write 1,000 words a day (or more) and then review it later to find out what they have said. Others have it all worked out. Stephen King has written a nice little text on writing as a process, which I like since it reflects very much how I work.

Get Well (I think Not)

Health care has become one of those subjects one cannot really discuss in Canada since: (a) people defend the Canada Health Act before you can discuss its shortcomings - it has actually more power than the bible here; (b) people are ignorant of what is actually happening in health care; (c) people cant imagine what demographics will do for health care; (d) people think its basically a money problem - spend more and all will be well, wheras in fact we are spending as a Government far too much already; (e) there is an ignorant rejection of the private sector, especially amongst doctors most of whom are in the private sector - they just dont want others to benefit in the same way that they do; and (f) its seen as about hospitals and doctors rather than about health.

Our Province (Alberta) is seeking to find the "third way" - between wholly public and largely private. They are looking to the UK for answers. There, as Jeffrey Simpson in the Globe and Mail pointed out, the public system (the third largest employer in the world) buys private services to meet needs and achieve outcomes. Since the service is outcome focused (one of which is value for money), its been concluded that private care is value for money when the trade off is time.

We cant have this conversation here. The patient (Government) is deaf, blind, disabled by ideology and suffering from a blockage of the imagination. They also lack courage.

This is Good Year

I have just finished The Kite Runner by Khaled Hosseini which is an outstanding first novel from this author. Set mainly in Afghanistan, it tells a powerful personal story of a journey to truth and self discovery - remarkable for its simplicity and power. It would make an excellent film. This is becoming a great year for books - the discovery of Henning Mankell (thanks to Glyn), A Small Island and now this - excellent.

I also justc watched Hotel Rwanda - its one of those days when tragedy becomes a focus. A powerful and effective film. One olf the things it portrays is the "uselessness" of the UN - I have had several recent conversations with Gen (retired) Dalliaire who is portrayed in the film as a basically useless guy and this matches my experience of dealing with him, or rather the consequences. It is a powerful film - in my "must watch" category.

Doesnt seem like just 2 weeks since we were sitting beside this pool in Jamaica...
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Neverland is Here

Watched Johnny Depp last night in Finding Neverland - a lovely and poignant movie about the child that is in all of us and the way in which manners, social expectations and political correctness stamp it out of us as we grow older (and, for some children, very early on as their parents push them to adult careers or sports without letting them enjoy themselves). Dustin Hoffman, as the theatre owner, also was excellent in his small part. Well worth watching.

I am loving my iPod, which I bought on e-bay at a fantastic price ($175US for a 40gb version). I can listen to it anywhere, broadcast music from the iPod to any radio and listen through that or connect it to any system that has either firewire or a USB port. I have 6 days of music loaded, so I can manage most journeys. Its one of those gadgets we dont need but shouldnt be without.

As the politics in Canada go from serious to silly - its the approaching silly season - the politics in Britain go from serious to scandal. Blair clearly is one of those people who beleives what he says himself must be true, even when he hears what he says for the first time. The latest news about Iraq will greatly help Charles Kennedy, but will make little difference to the outcome. This is because Michael Howard is equally cruddy as a politician. Perhaps there is "something of the night" about him - there is definately something missing.

But the way the cookie crumbles - helped now by the ease at which Britain's electoral system can be manipulated like that in Zimbabwe - is that there are key consituencies which have "signal" roles in the system and as of this morning, these look like safe labour seats. The Telegraph (which can hardly be accused of being pro labour) is predicting another labour landslide. Its sad that real choice has ended in Britain.

But at least you can win. The Spectator have an online competition for people to guess the number of seats each party will hold at close on May 6th (when the votes are all in). Cant remember what the prize is, but it is likely to be more fun than the election itself.

James (eldest son) moved into his condo Friday/Saturday. Nice it is too - 2 bedrooms, big walk in closets, a bathroom and a half, nice kitchen/lounge/diner. Elegant. He had great pride in it all..very nice, as he would say.

Cant garden, too cold (snowed Friday). Hoping for warm. Actually lit the fire yesterday - this is after 2 weeks of +20 and higher. Ah well - "its a dry cold".

Just about sums up the British election...Bliar will win, of course..(from The Sunday Telegraph, May 1st 2005)
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Henry James and Others

I have been reading a fictional account of the life of Henry James written by Colm Toibin (Irish novelist and very good too). It is a powerful piece - controlled, insightful and full of vignettes which reveal more about the psychology of Henry James (ironically, his brother William James is one the founders of psychology at Harvard). I recommend this book.

In fact, I am having a good year for reading - Small Island, Biography of Graham Greene and now this. (I have read some trash too, some of which has been fun but still trash!) and the mystery novels of Henning Mankell (plus the DVD of White Lioness, which put some flesh on key characters from these novels).

Also listening again to the complete works of Karl Jenkins (which I have now on my iPod - what a gift this little gizzmo is!). His use of instruments and female voices with his Adiemus language is very effective - a classical pop kind of stuff, but I think he comes into his own with Imagined Oceans - a symophonic like piece based on the oceans of the moon.

Ah well, must be my day for culture..

Britain, Votes and Poles

Britain is voting for Gordon Brown despite the fact that the young Pretender, Tony Bliar remains Prime Minister for sometime. The Spectator last wek made this clear as did the TV ad I managed to see in Jamaica in which Gordon and Tony were meant to be portrayed as a team working together. Looked more like Tony being interviewed by a retirement counsellor who himself smirked his way through the show.

The vote is rigged (I love the idea, again from The Spectator, that we should ask Mugabe and his colleagues to oversee the election) with many postal ballots now being used to replace the ballot box of old. A court ruled recently that the postal ballot fraud in Birmingham was so substantial as to cast doubt on the validity of this form of voting as currently practiced.

Anyway, Labour will win. Blair will then campaign for the EU Constitution referendum and lose and Gordon will replace him. There endeth any real politics in Britain.

What there will be is more taxes, more spending but he will blame his successor as Chancellor - probably Peter Hain - for the failure of the economy.

Meanwhile, the Tory party will replace Michael Howard when he loses and look to some fresh faces. Another decade in the wilderness.

The only winner will be the Liberals, whose leader - Charles Kennedy - managed to produce a son in the first week of the election (just think what he could do with real power). They will pick up seats, strengthen their position and start to champion more spending and taxing policies.

So where are the sane ones ?

YeahMon

I have been in Jamaica and experienced real luxury - a wonderful villa, great staff and food, wonderful friends (many new) and a lovely, peaceful place to be.

Meanwhile, we have a new Pope (Ratzinger was one of my top 2 picks - the other, Tettamanzi, either did well according to some sources or didnt do anything according to the Italian press). The most strenuous opponents to Ratzinger in the conclave were other Germans. Hm. Even his brother sounded pessimistic when interviewed by the press, indicating that Benedict 16th was not a well man. Well god bless him.

Watched some films - Vera Drake (excellent and a classic Mike Leigh film), Elektra (total and utter rubbish - thank goodness I was on a flight) and a film with Nicolas Cage, Harvey Keitel, John Voight and others called National Treasure (a load of nonsense, but amusing). Read some books - including Small Island by Andrea Levy, which I consider first class as a novel (interesting structure, funny, evocative, powerful story of both people and the attitude towards colour in the UK in the period immediately after world war 2). Drank rum punch (less said..).

James (son) was supposed to be moving today, but his condo isnt quite finished, so we delay a week. He's pumped. Owning his own place is a big deal, especially since they own 25% of it outright and the balance is small ($100,000) in terms of a mortgage, so well done James!

The Coming Conclave

The Papal conclave will begin on 18th April. The funeral of John Paul II is on the 8th of April. That's 10 days of some of the rawest politics around - lobbying, positioning and posing without being seen to do so. Its a real skill. What I would give to be a fly on the wall.

There is a lot of nonsense going on about all of this in the press. For example, there was a report last evening that a Canadian Cardinal was a papabili - electable as Pope. What a lot of nonsense. While in theory, any Catholic could be elected, there is a top ten list (all on the list are Cardinals - Schwarzenneger didn't make it!) and this particular Cardinal is not on any of the major lists. We are talking Marc Cardinal Ouellet of Quebec City - he only became a bishop in 2001 and cardinal in 2003. At 60, he's too young to follow a pope who rose to the job in 1978 and served 26 years, the third longest term in church history. The Conclave will go for an older guy and probably an Italian (Tettamanzi of Milan is still my favoured candidate, though Ratzinger is running a solid race - it will be one of the two. Ratzinger looks like he has it sown up at this stage, but Tettamanzi has the slightly more liberal bent..may replace Cardinal Martini as the liberal choice).

There is also some talk about the gag order imposed by the curia - none of the conclave cardinals (there are 117 or so of them) are permitted to speak to the press. The American cardinals are said to be "upset" by this. I doubt it. More accurately: the American press are upset by this.

Still, the race is on. If you want to get a feel for what it will be like, read Andrew Grealey's White Smoke - he was the only commentator to predict John Paull II's election 26 years ago and this is a good novel. There is also a novel called Conclave which is well worth it too..

Speaking of novels, I finished One Step Behind by Henning Mankell - an especially compelling mystery with Wallander as the central figure (in more ways than one). Have to start scouting around for something else to read - I am thinking if Moonstone by Wilkie Collins, which I read 20 years ago and enjoyed. Must take a second look.

Jamaica this coming week-end. Can't wait!

Tony Blair is obviously as delighted as Gordon Brown that the latter may stay on as Chancellor in the next UK Labour administration!
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