Republican Party Convention

I have been keeping an eye on the convention.

What a dull affair. It has all the excitement of a snail trying to master the works of Mozart while being instructed by a dead frog. In comparison to the Democrats, these guys look and sound old. They look and sound tired and, well, worn out.

Rhetoric is not necessarily a bad thing, but it needs to be good rhetoric. I'm waiting.

Sarah Palin is on tonight and will get big coverage. I'll be watching. She has a lot to do. Expectation of McCain are low in terms of his speech closing the convention. So its up to her. We'll see.

Psychologist Need Help...

My fellow psychologists in the US have just made a remarkable decision. They have decided to use their skills to help individuals overcome their resistance to changing their behaviour so that we can affect climate change. So much for science. Individual changes in behaviour will not have a significant and lasting impact on climate change.

There’s nothing wrong with helping people have less of an impact on the planet. But to position this as being the same as “saving the planet” or impacting global warming is, well, just total bullshit for two reasons. First, the planet is cooling. Second, the primary causes of climate change have little to do with human behaviour.

It’s a sad day for science.

Whitening Teeth! Don' Do It!

My good and dear friend Shelley told me a tale about teeth whitenening this morning.

Before I retell the story, let just muse for a moment: why are so many people whitening their teeth ? Fashion. Its pure and simple fashion. There is nothing hygienic about it. It costs a lot of money to do professionally (and a fair bit to do it yourself) and its pointless. Totally and utterly pointless.

So Shelley has it done (dont ask why). She goes and spends real money and sits with her mouth looking like the end of a truck that has just unloaded a tonne of hay for an hour or so, goes away and does things with her teeth at home as per the kit and instructions and then comes bac to her dentist for more gob smacking pain. Then she goes home and the pain really starts. At one point, says Shell's, she wanted to pull each of her teeth out they were so painful. She nipped down to the liquor store and purchased the best known remedy: wine. It didn't take the pain away, just made it less obvious.

"I'd rather give birth", says Shelley (who knows about birth, since she is mum to two grown people). She also now only uses Sensodyne toothpaste - there's a clue right there!

Her advice: just don't do it!
My advice: don't even think about doing it.

Now, is this clear!

Last Word (for now) on Palin and McCain

As if this couldn't get worse. Paiin's daughter, Bristol (17), is pregnant and unmarried. She will marry the father and the baby will be born around the time of Obama's inauguration.

This in itself is no bad thing. It happens to many parents and daughters/sons. A Governor's daughter is no exception. She is also handling the parental issues well here and is being very supportive of her daughter. Good.

What is interesting here is whether McCain knew. He initially said no but his staff quickly changes his mind and indicated that he did. We will never know for sure.

What is disturbing is the lack of candour. Palin, if McCain wins, will Chair the Senate and will be under daily scrutiny as a Vice President and potential President. It was inevitable that this would come out so you think that the team would manage the news and ensure it was spun. Instead, it leaks out and then they respond. What next, one wonders?

McCain Shows Poor Judgement

It has now become clear that McCain's contempt for the people of the United States and the rest of the world is absolute. His VP pick was based on a single meeting with Sarah Palin six months ago and she has had no serious conversation about the Vice Presidential role until just a few days ago. So on the basis of reading about her on the internet and chatting with friends and colleagues (but not her), he makes his choice.

Three things:

1. McCain is 72 and has recurring bouts of cancer. If elected, he will be the oldest person ever to be sworn into office. The chances of Palin becoming President de facto (or dead factor) are high. McCain is willing to risk this on the basis of what?

2. The key issue is judgment and experience, at least according to McCain. This is what the campaign theme has been all year. So he abuses himself ny selecting someone who shows little of either.

3. It looks increasingly like a cynical move to win over women voters, full stop. It indicates that he does not take these voters seriously.

He is a dreadfully flawed man, as we now have seen.

Take a look at the posting on Matthew Gold's blog site - its worth it.

Potential US VP Shows Poor Judgement

This may seem a bit catty, but here goes.

One way of judging a person is by what they have decided to call their children. In my experience, the mother has the final say and it is never easy.But parents recognize that they are giving their children an identity that they will have to live with until they die (or change it by legal means).

So what did Gov. Sarah Palin call her children? Here are the names of her five children: Track, Bristol, Willow, Piper and Trig. So I don't mean to be mean and small minded, but really.

I accept that these names could have been worse: Glover, Tuke, Sled and so on. But Trig? Track?

I think we already have good evidence that she has shown poor judgment consistently over time in the naming of her children.

Monty Python Running for US Vice President...

When my phone beeped the text message simply said: Palin running with McCain as Vice Presidential nominee". I thought - "Crikey, Monty Python's Michael Palin's is running in the US election", nudge, nudge know what I mean.

Wrong. It is Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska. Who? Exactly. McCain (72 today) has chosen someone who has just 2 years as a Governor and was a Mayor of a small Alaska town. Talk about someone with little experience - his major accusation against Obama - he's chosen someone very few has ever heard of.

So when McCain dies in office, she will be the next President of the United States. So I guess my first reaction was right - its pure Monty Python.

Sex Addiction and the X-Files

David Duchovny, star of the X-Files and a seemingly nice guy, has entered a clinic which specializes in sex addiction. I think the clinic was founded by Depeche Mode, who got to number one with their song "Just Cant Get Enough".

This means that he must have met the ten criteria for securing this classification, which are:

1. Recurrent failure (pattern) to resist impulses to engage in extreme acts of lewd sex.
2. Frequent engaging in those behaviors to a greater extent or over a longer period of time than intended.
3. Persistent desire or unsuccessful efforts to stop, reduce, or control those behaviors.
4. Inordinate amount of time spent in obtaining sex, being sexual, or recovering from sexual experience.
5. Preoccupation with the behavior or preparatory activities.
6. Frequent engaging in violent sexual behavior when expected to fulfill occupational, academic, domestic, or social obligations.
7. Continuation of the behavior despite knowledge of having a persistent or recurrent social, financial, psychological, or physical problem that is caused or exacerbated by the behavior.
8. Need to increase the intensity, frequency, number, or risk of behaviors to achieve the desired effect, or diminished effect with continued behaviors at the same level of intensity, frequency, number, or risk.
9. Giving up or limiting social, occupational, or recreational activities because of the behavior.
10. Distress, anxiety, restlessness, or violence if unable to engage in the behavior.

Its not true that some people check in to such clinics so as to become sex addicts, but I wish Mr Duchovny well.

By the way, in a text on sex addiction therapy I found this statement: "Unless a sexual addict hits bottom (much like a drug addict) they will rarely seek recovery on their own." - I think spanking is a symptom, don't you?

Marmalde and the War onTerror

A friend of a friend recently was in Naples. On her return she was stopped by security who demanded that she either forfeit her Italian marmalade (which, by the way, is very good) or she should check it in. They said it was a banned substance - a liquid. Some basic understanding of science is clearly not part of the Italian school curriculum. Marmalade can be liquid if heated at a very high temperature.

Another friend of a friend had a similar experience at Heathrow. He, like me, is a pork pie addict. He had been to Fortnum and Mason's (a very fine and extremely expensive food hall) and bought six pork pies. These too were not allowed through security. Clearly not a liquid, the security people used some other reason for confiscating these at the security check point. (I think they felt pork would be offensive to Muslims and may therefore incite rioting and violence on the flight).

A colleaguse coming through Frankfurt had ink capsules for his fountain pen confiscated while another colleague coming through Oslo had difficulty persuading the security people that his deodorant stick (a solid one) was not in fact a liquid.

My conclusion. This is all getting out of hand, Terrorists must have good taste if they like pork pies and marmalade and take care of their appearance and use fountain pens.

Travel really is getting very degrading.

Arts Cuts

Take a look at the YouTube video in the links above (click on the title for this post). Its about cuts in the Arts funding from the Government of Canada - fun and very clever.

 

See, this is how we Brits think!

Obama versus McCain and Then Canada...

So I return to the question of Obama-Biden versus John McCain and as yet unknown VP nominee. While I have little time for McCain, I suspect he will win in November.

Why? Four reasons. First, Obama is sounding “empty” – gone are the focused, intelligent, imaginative speeches and they have been replaced with rambles. Less is more. Second, not only is the speechifying weaker, the content now needs to be more specific – not just why we need change but what specifically the changes will be and what is different about them from what McCain will propose. Third, I think Biden is a poor choice and will be outmatched by McCain’s choice next week. Finally, I genuinely doubt whether America is ready for a black President.

So this is McCain’s race to lose. And he might just do that. There is a Bob Dole quality about him – genuine sort of guy who has worked hard for years in the Senate and done good things, war hero and all that, but, well dull. No big communicator – not like the “Gipper”. Plus he is disconnected from the challenges facing “ordinary” people, as became clear last week. He has to be careful he doesn’t go over board with the strategy that Obama isn’t really an American or that Obama and Osama are, well, related! His biggest threat is whatever George Bush does between now and the election.

Speaking of elections, it will be interesting to see what happens here in Canada. Our Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, is touting the idea of an election in September and the press have taken the bait big time. He is trying to ensure that he can in fact manage the agenda in the House for at least 6-9 months – so I (and colleagues with connections) don’t think there will be an election in Canada in September. That’s not to say it isn’t time for one – it probably is – just that one is unlikely. Read the current activity as a way to make the Liberal Leader Mr Dion look, well, as he is, a dithering load of puff.

Global Warming Causes a Hole in My Sock

I have a hole in my sock. Its not a large hole, but it will become one if it isn’t darned soon (does anyone else still darn socks?).

I blame global warming. My sock is made of wool. The wool probably comes from Australia, since the socks are Australian and have an Aussie pattern on them. Australia, especially South Australia, is suffering from drought. Drought is affecting the grazing grounds for sheep and this in turn affects their health. A sheep’s health determines the quality of both lamb and mutton and the wool that sheep produce. Poor wool quality leads to poor sock quality. Thus the hole in my sock is a result of global warming.

Not really – but this is the logic people are using when suggesting that this or that phenomenon is occurring as a result of global warming, even though the number of intervening variables are considerable and the interaction between them complex.
So the idea that the polar bears are dying out (which is simply not true) and that this is due to global warming is based on my hole in the sock logic.

Darn it, literally.

Obama Oh-dear

So it is the democratic party convention. Obama and Biden will be crowned. Hillary and Bill will have their moment. It will be a decent week for Obama.

But it is not looking good. Clinton supporters are still unhappy and still show dissent and the campaign is beginning to dull the senses. While McCain is not doing well - how many houses? - he is doing better than Obama.

So I suspect that Obama is going to come second in this race, He will do so because, as McCain says, he's a mile high and an inch deep. He is inspiring and imaginative.But not solid enough to stay the course. Close, but silver medals don't count.

Wind in the Willows?

Wind-generated energy is presented as one of most environmentally beneficial sources of renewable energy. Germany remains the world leader in wind power capacity, with almost 24 percent of the global total (22,247 megawatts), but it experienced a lackluster year in 2007. Still, renewable energy resources now generate more than 14 percent of Germany’s electricity needs, with about half of this coming from wind.

Spain led Europe in new installations in 2007, now ranking third worldwide in total wind capacity (15,145 megawatts). France, Italy, Portugal, and the United Kingdom all experienced significant growth last year as well. In all, EU wind power capacity rose 18 percent in 2007, and the region is home to 60 percent of global installed capacity.

China was the biggest surprise in 2007. Barely in the wind business three years ago, China trailed only the United States and Spain in new wind installations in 2007, and ranked fifth in total installed capacity (6,050 megawatts). However, an estimated one-fourth of this capacity remains unconnected to the grid due to planning problems.

The global wind market was worth an estimated $36 billion in 2007, accounting for almost half of all investment in new renewable electric and heating capacity. Such strong demand is creating these industry trends:

Competition among wind turbine OEMs is rapidly intensifying as growth extends to new regions, encouraging start-ups of new manufacturers while pushing leading suppliers to expand their sales and production globally.

Turbine prices, and the costs of installation, have trended upward over the last four years after nearly a decade of cost reductions per megawatt of nameplate capacity. The global market’s boom in demand has clearly shifted the industry from a buyer’s to a seller’s market in the past three years, with corresponding price increases.

Multiple players moving on 2 MW and above segment: Vestas and Enercon— pioneers in 2 MW and larger turbines—are aiming to protect their share of this market. However, multiple proven machines from Gamesa, Siemens, Suzlon/REpower, Alstom/Ecotecnia and others are providing buyers more options.

Component suppliers face new challenges to keep pace with turbine demand, calling for major production capacity investments in the multi-megawatt segment, as well as a focus on local supply in booming new markets while keeping costs competitive.

Installed capacity in Canada (as of January 2008) was app. 1.856 megawatts, with at least another 700 MW of capacity expected to come online by the end of the year. Wind energy currently accounts for 0.8% of Canada's domestic electricity supply. Alberta currently has the largest installed capacity of any Province in Canada with 523 MW (28% of Canada’s installed capacity).

The development of renewable capacity is strongly supported by the Canadian public. In an Angus Reid Strategies report in October 2007, 89 per cent of respondents said that using renewable energy sources like wind or solar power was positive for Canada, because these sources were better for the environment. Only 4 per cent considered using renewable sources as negative since they can be unreliable and expensive.
However, according to the Heartland Institute, the costs of wind-powered energy far outweigh the benefits.

At the risk of stating the obvious, wind power is only available when the wind is blowing; when it stops, so does the power. So as to compensate for unreliability, stand by conventional power has to be available to “kick in” when the wind drops. This results in CO2 emissions without balancing energy outputs and a more unreliable grid – as both Germany and Denmark report.

Installed capacity is one measure. The more important one is energy utilization. The average output of a wind turbine is app. One quarter of its capacity. In Denmark, where wind power represents 20% of installed capacity, wind turbines generate just 6% of the power Denmark consumed in 2004. What is more, not all of this power could be used in Denmark – it had to export it to Norway at a loss. Also, since the wind blew at times different from peak demand, Denmark also found itself importing electricity from other jurisdictions at premium prices.

The trick, yet to be found, is storing power from wind turbines so that it can be available when needed and we can reduce the need for “firming” wind based systems with conventional power production. We do not yet have effective storage systems for the kind of capacity wind turbines can produce when they are functioning well – when this storage technology arrives, much more economies of scale may be possible. However, this will require additional investments to upgrade currently installed capacity and new investment models for all new wind farm construction.

To produce the same amount of energy as a conventional power plant, wind farms need 85 times more land area.

Wind farms produce both noise pollution and sight pollution, emitting blinding strobe-light sensations at dawn and dusk, and nearly constant noise pollution.

Wind power costs twice as much as electricity produced by traditional fossil fuels. A 2004 study in the UK showed that wind power (including the cost of stand by generation) cost 5.4 pence (10 cents Canadian app.) per kw hour versus 2.2 (4 cents) from natural gas, 2.5p from coal and 2.3p from nuclear. Offshore wind power cost 7.2pp. A lot of these real costs are masked by deep Government subsidies. This translates into significant costs - £90 per MW hour versus £45 for “normal” power sources.

Government subsidies for wind power are the only mechanism to ensure viability . In the UK, each turbine earns its owners £400,000 (app $800,000 Canadian) of which £200,000 comes from power sold to the grid and £200,000 from subsidies. In some jurisdictions, subsidies are worth more to the owner than the revenue from power sold to the grid.

Also, critics ask, where is the environmentalist lobby's well-known concern for animal life? The US Department of Energy plans to build 132,000 new wind turbines by 2020. By conservative estimates, the new turbines would kill between 12 million and 15 million birds.

Environmentalists ignore the clear and certain costs of wind-powered energy: higher cost and lost efficiency, increased land development, noise and light pollution and bird deaths. They are also not keen to systematically look at the economics of wind power or the CO2 output from stand-by firming power generators which use gas or coal.

Grr Wuff!

 

So here is a City Council worker with a sense of humour. I wonder if dogs appreciate the message?

The Challenge of Zimbabwe

The rate of inflation in Zimbabwe jumped to just over 11,250,000% in June, official figures show. It gained 9,035,045.5 percentage points from the May rate of 2,233,713.4%," according to the Central Statistical Office (CSO). Many experts believe the actual rate of inflation may be much higher. Zimbabwe is in the midst of a dire economic crisis with unemployment at almost 80%, most manufacturing at a halt and basic foods in short supply.

Zimbabwe, once one of the richest countries in Africa, has descended into economic chaos largely because of the policies of President Mugabe. Mr. Mugabe has denied he is ruining the economy, laying the blame instead on international sanctions he says have been imposed against Zimbabwe. In particular, he blames Britain and claims that the secret intent of the UK Government is to return to colonialism. This at a time when independence for Scotland is looking more likely and when the UK’s role on the global stage is minuscule.

Meantime, there is no deal between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the MDC opposition and Mr. Mugabe to form some sort of Government of National Unity, to steer Zimbabwe out of the crisis. Mugabe refuses to give up executive powers, which is a preconditioning for power sharing. While the MDC is willing to share cabinet positions with Zanu-PF, Tsvangirai insists on being the executive head of the Government as Prime Minister. Quite right too.

So now we wait. Wait until someone changes their stance or Mr. Mugabe cuts a deal with a breakaway faction, which he is threatening to do. He will do anything to stay in power. What is difficult about all this is to watch ordinary people suffer while a very proud man seeks to feather his nest and protect himself from charges of war crimes.

Obesity Police

Obesity is a serious problem and can cause all sorts of complications - it is due to a combination of diet, genetics and exercise. A lot of work is taking place to change the behaviour of individuals by helping them understand at a personal level what they should/shouldn't eat and how they should eat it. I am not confident that this will make much difference = there are other (corporate) interests at stake.

Britain is considering going one step further. There is a serious discussion about giving social workers the right to remove obese children from the home in which they are living with their patent or parent.

Talk about fascism !

No News Day

I am old enough to remember as a child when TV shut down for a while - not enough programs. I also remember, but am unable to verify, occasions when the BBC said "there is no news today, instead we will listen to some music...".

This persists today. Despite many 24 hour news channels and a plethora of newspapers and blogs, there is in fact very little news. That is, news that changes something in a significant way for a lot of people.

So scarce is news that we have to make it up. There are now so many celebrities (most of whom, I have never heard of) who have they behaviours and speech headlined every day. Who cares that Amie Winehouse bummed at a concert or that Paris Hilton is not wearing panties.

On CNN right now there are several segments devoted to the question Who and When Will Barrack Obama Choose as His Running Mate? Note that he has not announced one, has not released a short list and doesn't have to name anyone till next week, but at least this is filling air time.

Occassionally there is some news - the Prime Minister actually calls an election (that he is thinking of do so i not news), the Queen dies, Musharif resigns, George Bush says something very intelligent, Gordon Brown actually wins a by-election. But most of what we count as news actually is air fluff.

So I suggest we go back to the old world and, whenever we can, say "there is no news today and we have decided not to make a load of "news" up, so here is some music." Wouldn't that be refreshing!

Environmentalists- The New Liberal Fascists?

Mussolini and Hitler were socialists. For many years before World War II, Mussolini governed Italy in the name of a left agenda and was seeking to dismantle various aspects of capitalism – moving more organizations and economic sectors into state control. Both secured significant and substantial popular support – not only were they leading socialist party’s they were also leading populist parties. They were also nationalists – passionate about their national identity and evoking such an identity at every opportunity – something every American President has done.

The new fascists are also socialists and populists. We call them environmentalists: they seek state control and intervention in key aspects of daily life, seek to control the work of corporations, to use state means to manage core economic sectors and subvert science to support their cause. They are also seeking to redistribute wealth (the fundamental purpose of Kyoto Accord was to redistribute wealth) and to manage economic development and growth. Critically: they understand that the State has to control the behavior of individuals, groups and organizations if the good of the greater number is to triumph over the free market. Since fascism is defined as the religion of the state – environmentalist solutions to global warming are

Like their fascist predecessors, the new fascists are intolerant of opposition – branding global warming skeptics as equivalent to holocaust deniers and seeking intimidation (subtle though this may be) to silence opposition. Occasionally, they have also resorted to modest forms of violent protest to stop those who legitimately oppose the environmental orthodoxy from having their voices heard.

Just as the old fascists subverted science in support of eugenics and anti-Semitism (at least in the case of German fascists), so the modern fascists have subverted science to support an unsupportable theory of global warming as something linked to CO2. Claiming a global scientific consensus (which is also what was claimed for eugenics) which does not in fact exist, there is no real intimidation and resource denial for those seeking to study in depth alternatives to the political orthodoxy. Large research funds are allocated in support of the politically correct theory of global warming and large scale media resources are deployed to obfuscate the issue. Prizes (like the Oscar and Nobel prizes) are awarded to icons of the new fascism who distort known facts.

Propaganda, a hallmark of fascism in Italy and Germany, is alive and well and pursued in favour of a fascists environmental agenda. Guilt for using non-renewable energy, seeking to create a popular anti-capitalist CO2 movement and softening up the public to accept substantive state control are hallmarks of this socialist propaganda.

This short piece is likely to upset some people. But they should consider very carefully how the term “fascist” is being defined. They also may wish to read the book Liberal Fascism.