Canada, "Green" Politics and Science

The Liberal Party is making “green” issues a centerpiece of their strategy to beat the Conservatives at the next election. Despite continuing dispute within the scientific community, the Liberal claim will be that we face “catastrophe” for coastal regions and the artic from the warming of the planet. Our weather system will be changed fundamentally, affecting agriculture, fisheries and other industries reliant on predictable climates. Various species will disappear and new illnesses will reach our shores due to the warmer climate. As we near an election, expect any science supporting the exaggerated claims to be minimal and rhetoric maximal.

Science will be used to justify substantial proposals requiring the expenditure of billions. This from a political party that, when in office, had opportunities to do things about the issues they raise and yet achieved nothing, other than spending funds on activities which made very little difference.

Yet the science keeps changing. The UN will release a report in February 2007 which will make clear that previous reports have exaggerated the impact humans have on climate change – the sun is a major player. They will also reduce by half the predicted impact on the oceans of rising sea levels. The fact that none of their models of climate change have yet proved accurate will not be mentioned – an inconvenient truth.

What kind of policies will the Liberal Party propose? Carbon taxes – taxes on SUV’s, taxes on cars based on emissions standards. More toll roads – Ontario already has some. Subsidies for the building of ethanol plants, wind power turbines and solar power. Subsidies for retrofitting homes with efficient furnaces, better windows and insulation and new building codes requiring all new homes to be carbon neutral. Tax credits for companies who chose to go green. Lots of carbon trading – buying carbon credits to offset the fact that few of these measures will have an impact on CO2 emissions.

The impact of these measures will be felt most directly by the poor. Housing will become more expensive, the cost of living will rise and transportation will become a burden. Jobs will also be lost as companies seek to absorb the rising cost of compliance with legislation – expect a lot of regulations. Certain industries – the natural resource sector, automotive, air transport and tourism – will be most affected, as they absorb costs and shed labour.

If they were really radical, they would require each home in Canada to be carbon neutral and all businesses to buy a certain volume of carbon credits based on the industry and their size. For my household, this would be a cost of some $175 a year. For my small business this would be around $675 a year.

And what will we gain in terms of saving the planet. Almost nothing. If every home and business in Canada was to comply with what the Liberal party will likely propose, the impact on CO2 emissions will be minimal. The measures will have no impact on the fast growing producers of CO2 – India, China. They will impact the oil and gas industry, Canada’s leading producers of CO2, marginally and we will continue to have global warming, given the role of the sun.

So what is the point? The politics here are about creating fear and then acting as if it were real. Global warming is real – it is in describing the impacts that we have real fear mongering. The politics of this are about seeking to create an agenda which pushes two alternative views – the Liberal idea of the state as a “nanny” which needs to manage what its population does and the conservative idea that the state needs to partner with communities of interests so as to secure social and economic development. Elections are about which one of these two views will be dominant.

All politicians need to remember three things. First, several polls suggest that some 18% of the population do not believe global warming poses a serious threat and don’t support action aimed at responding to climate change. 14% of the electorate claim not tot have heard of global warming – they probably haven’t heard that the Conservatives are in power either or that Tommy Hunter is no longer on televison.

Second, while many agree that “something ought to be done”, most polling data makes clear that they think they are talking about “someone other than themselves” doing it – it is a “not me, but them” issue.

Finally, a lot of people are left feeling “cold” about the solutions proposed. The carbon tax on air travel (France), road charges (Britain) and taxes on car emissions (Britain), massive investments in wind power (Germany, Spain. UK) or the requirement for bio-fuels to be the primary fuel for transportation (several countries) do not resonate with voters. The “one tone” challenge is an example of a Liberal strategy that was simply too clever – most people had no idea what it was about at all. Policies aimed at cutting emissions from industry also go over the heads of many – they have heard all this before.

In all of the debate, the group that will suffer the most will be scientists. Their work will be manipulated, distorted and misread every day between now and the announcement of the election result. Expect Al Gore to feature prominently in the Canadian election, not as a candidate but as a source of “truth” – something that is worrying in itself (he “invented” the internet, you will recall with skepticism). Also expect this to be a messy campaign, with different scientists being used to “justify” fundamentally different positions. The end result: cynicism, not just about politics but about science.

Whatever Happened to Science?

Something strange is happening to science. Science and politics have become bedfellows and some scientists are crossing a thin line between scientific endeavour and political advocacy. The more this occurs, the less value will be attached to science and the more cynical people will become about politics.

Three examples will make clear the problem. The most obvious is climate change. This is the theory that the earth is experiencing global warming, caused largely by human actions, and that the impact of such warming will be devastating for many communities, especially coastal communities, around the world. Those scientists who dissent from this view – indicating that the sun is warmer now than it has been for several thousand years, that the earth is not as warm as it was in the medieval period and that many claims are exaggerated – are termed “climate change deniers”, find themselves ostracized within the scientific community and are refused grants. “Group-think” is so strong that the basics practice science has been replaced by the rhetoric of advocacy. In February of 2007, when the next UN report on climate change is due, expect skeptics to be at the forefront. The report will indicate that the impact of human activity on climate change is much less than was previously thought and that the rise in sea levels will be half that predicted by the UN when it last reported - fertile ground for skeptis of the science.

A second example relates to cholesterol. The theory here is that “bad” cholesterol is a cause of heart disease and that controlling cholesterol will lead to a lower level of risk of premature death through a heart attack or stroke. Large drug company profits are often driven by cholesterol related drugs, such as Lipitor – statins which have an impact on cholesterol production. Yet the evidence for this theory is not as compelling as many may think. The International Network of Cholesterol Skeptics – scientists and others – have a different interpretation of the evidence and reach different conclusions based on science. They note that age adjusted incident of heart disease has not been impacted by the widespread use of the statins used to reduce cholesterol. Despite these concerns, there is a global group-think that treats skeptics as deviants and deniers.

A third example will also help us understand why science, advocacy and politics are closely tied together. There is a strong view that North America and Europe is suffering an epidemic of childhood obesity. Yet the Centre for Disease Control in the US has had to retract several studies due to poor methodology or data analysis and has apologized for exaggerating the implications of the research. The New Scientist also showed that there is only weak evidence linking obesity with mortality – only those grossly obese suffer the symptoms and consequences attributed to the many who are slightly or moderately obese. Some of the original studies were funded by the weight loss / diet companies.

The scientific method is about disagreement, challenge and the use of evidence to support such dialogue. Advocacy is about taking a position and using all available means to get things done. Politics is about creating popular solutions to problems people didn’t know they had. When these become confused or blurred, then we all suffer.

For example, the insistence on cholesterol as a cause of heart disease leads to huge health care expenditures, transfer of assets from the public to the private sector. Scientists who take a different view are generally denied funds or find it difficult to secure support for their research.

Climate change believers always suggest that “deniers” are funded by the energy companies or proxy organizations established by these companies. Yet the global warming industry has its own funding resources – governments and others - who have a vested interest in promoting a future of challenge requiring political action. No one is immune from the influences of the socio-economic source of their funding and sponsorship.

The argument goes “well, we should act just in case the dominant theory is true – what’s the harm?”. All drugs have side effects – we are yet to see the full impact of a generation using statins to control cholesterol and the likely impact of the war against obesity on psychological and physical well being of the next generation. We have not yet fully understood the impact of the measures being taken to “manage climate change” on the social and economic development of communities. All acts have intended and unintended consequences.

What we can see is a growing cynicism about science and about the use of science to support advocacy and campaigns. What we see is the political manipulation of science to win elections, create fear and offer solutions to problems we may not actually have.

Bed Can Kill

So here's a fact that surprised me. Each year 600 American citizens die from falling out of bed. In fact, falling out of bed is the second largest fatality arising from falls.

Now dont panic. Most of us in our fit fifties simpky roll when we fall. This is especially the case if we are attached to someone at the time. Where death is likely is when the person is frail for other reasons and the fall leads to a major break.

I was worried when I saw this factoid. I mean, I dont fall out of bed often - no more than once a quinquiennia. But when I do, I generally feel better for it. Maybe this was delusional, I thought. Maybe I am really at risk and I am in denial. But on further investigation (there is a sizeable literature) I need to have other factors at play - falling out of bed is the final symptom. Phew..

 

TEN TESTS FOR ED

Our new Premier and his soon to be slimmed down cabinet will quickly get to work, charting a new course for the Province. As we watch the new thinking unfold, there are ten tests which will help decide whether the Government of Alberta really understand the challenges they face.

First, will they reduce public spending? Public spending in Alberta is too high at around $9,000 a person – around $2,000 a year more than other Provinces. It is also growing its spending too quickly. The surpluses will not last and we need to plan responsibly.

Second, will it control spending? Every year for the last five years, Government spending has been higher than it budgeted for by about $1 billion annually. This needs to stop. Premier Stelmach needs to impose strong fiscal discipline if he is to set a new course.

Third, will the Government start to manage growth? Alberta is forecast to experience 86,000 vacant positions over the next five years. We have people in work, but living in their vehicles due to the lack of affordable housing. We have issues with the fundamental conditions for community which are threatened by growth. What we should watch for is a slowing of permits for expansion, a focus on affordable housing and a strong commitment to listening and acting on the recommendations of municipalities most affected by the current cycle of development.

Fourth, will the Government engage in a systematic approach to diversifying the Alberta economy? Our reliance on oil sands, conventional oil and gas for our future is a risky business. New proposals were submitted to the Government for a systematic approach to developing Alberta as a responsible bioeconomy – balancing oil and gas with bioenergy, biochemicals and other bio products. Our ICT sector is strong, but could be stronger. Look carefully at economic strategy and look at the ratio of oil and gas to “other” supports as a test of how serious the Government is about a different, sustainable future for Alberta.

Fifth, what investments will the Government make in the future? In 2002 the Tuer Financial Management Commission looked at Alberta’s finances and recommended that it spend no more than $3.5 billion of oil and gas revenues and invest the balance in the Heritage Fund and in its innovation funds. Klein’s government did not do this. Stelmach’s should. Watch how surplus funds are used and look for increases to Alberta Ingenuity and the other innovation funds.

Sixth, what is the strategy for the future of health care in Alberta? For the last decade we heard a lot about the “third way”. Health care is the minefield that Stelmach will have to find a pathway through. What is needed is a balance between public funds and user pay and a balance between public and private delivery. Alberta cannot afford to continue growing public funding at the 79% rate of growth seen over the last few years. How Stelmach’s team deals with this balancing act will likely determine the longevity of the Conservative hold on power.

Seven, what steps are being taken to increase the participation rate in post secondary education? Students are right concerned about affordability of College and University education. Albertan’s should be concerned about the need to have a highly educated workforce. This means that participation rates and completion rates in our post secondary programs need to increase – so look for a different kind of encouragement and incentives for participation in and completion of programs.

Eight, look at the way municipalities are treated – do Cities get a fair slice of the cake? Cities and communities are at the heart of our experience of Government. Look at the flow of resources to cities and communities and at the fairness of these allocations. Look too at the extent to which municipalities are re-engaged in decisions which affect them. Listen to the reaction of Mayors to policy announcements – expect a change of tone.

Nine. look at the relationship between Alberta and the Federal Government – is it a strong and effective partnership? On a number of issues, the Klein government were at odds with the Federal Government and Alberta lost opportunities. Will the new Government in Alberta strengthen its role in confederation, build positive ties department by department and will we all benefit as a result.

Finally, will Stelmach “fix” the democratic deficit in Alberta? Will there be reforms of the way in which the Government engages with and works with the legislature, a rethink of the way the Standing Policy Committees work, a real engagement with the political parties to restore some faith in our democracy, especially amongst younger people? Stelmach could start by sorting out the rules for electing a Conservative Party leader. Another strong sign would be how he works with the opposition parties in the house. Its time for a major change of attitude and approach.

The electors who chose Stelmach sent a message. “Smarten up! Be responsible. No more same old!”. These ten tests will tell us whether he and his team not only heard, but understood the message they were sent and are acting on it.

Prawn to Beta Blocker 4

The serious and good news this week is that chess players competing in the Asian
Games will, for the first time, will be tested for drugs. Its part of the attempt by
 the world chess federation to become an Olympic sport.

So this got me thinking. What drigs do chess players take to improve their performance. The doctors 
were looking for traces of amphetamines, tranquilizers, heart medicines called beta blockers and other drugs that are also banned in physically strenuous sports. I'd be looking for imagination enhancing drugs - or foods - ginseng, smack, kippers.

Really, how silly is the world getting.

Oprah Dumbing Down

 Oprah jumped on the wagon today, joined by film star (and occasional Vice President) Al Gore. She has just discovered that the planet is warming. She yet again demonstrates that on this kind of thing, she is basically “thick”. Bright at other things, without a doubt, But give her a science subject, she is just thick. She was just the same with the bird flu. One sign of this was that she asked Gore if he felt like Noah.

Gore basically did his stand up science. Polar bears are drowning because the ice is melting; the north pole is melting and will be gone in (well..not clear); we have just 10 years to act decisively or we will pass the tipping point when we can no longer save the planet.

Oprah has three problems. She is not challenging - this happened before during medieval times, how come the climate change models can predict climate and what is the role of the sun? She is too blindly following and it shows by her fawning. She did have a section on the skeptics (“there has always got to be another side”, she said dismissively) – which was very good. Gore dismissed this in terms of who funded the work of the skeptics.

When it comes to action, it is always so pathetic. Here is what Oprah recommends: (a) change your light bulbs; (b) do an energy audit – programmable thermostats, change the air filter, blanket the hot water heater; (c) buy E85 and buy a car that can run on E85; (d) shop green for appliances with an energy star symbol.

She shouldn’t do these shows. It is so dumbed down stuff – shown by the sudden appearance of DeCaprio. She looked like a rabbit caught in the headlights of a hunters truck. I know she thinks she is doing the right thing, but by allowing this pseudo-science to go out in this way she just alienates a lot of people. Sure, many will get it for the first time - but it is not great.

Oh, I just remembered. Al Gore invented the internet. Yeah, right.

Midnight Madness

Politics is one thing. Music is another. Just returned from an interested concert - Prokofiev 3rd Piano Concerto (beuatifully played) and Martinu First Symphony - the Edmonton Symphony were outstandingly good tonight, with these tw pieces giving them a great deal of scope. So that was good.

Now back to Alberta politics. Looks like Ed Stelmach will be the new Premier and party leader - if Morton fails to take second place (he's third with 60 of 83 ballot boxes counted) then his votes are reallocated and most will go to Stelmach (well, this is the working assumption) making him the winner. That is, unless Dinning gets 50% plus 1, which looks unlikely.

But what a process. You could buy memberships at the door and vote two minutes later (friends have already ripped up their membership). Contributions were possible from people resident elsewhere in Canada. Controls were so weak that it would be possible to vote early or vote often. Despite these real problems, some 160,000 people (app.) appear to have voted - a heck of a lot more than elected Stephane Dion.

The next few weeks will be very interesting, to say the least.

Lost in Translation

Stephane Dion has beaten the academic Ignatieff for the liberal leadership. This is great news for those of us who are conservative in our leanings - not that being a Tory in Canada resembles anything other than right thinking Liberals in the rest of the world.

A nice guy, who is very confused about Kyoto (he bought a dog and named it Kyoto - showing that he doesnt understand how pets are part of the problem), doesnt speak english clearly and is not all that popular in Quebec. Ah well... one good news.

For a moment, I thought it was Celine Dion who had won.

Pantomime in Montreal

Think about this Liberal leadership gong show for a moment.

Bob Rae, who I have met and is a very decent man, used to a Provincial NDP Premier. That is, a left leaning liberal. He didn’t do a great job as Premier, though he has done “a Nixon since” – major rehabilitation.

Michael Ignatieff was, until recently, an academic – Harvard and Oxford. A bright, arrogant and ignorant (as most academics are) man who has been out of the country for some 30 years. He says that if he looses the Liberal Leadership he will return to his academic work – showing his ignorance. He retracted after a negative reaction (showing his ignorance), but I think we know what he will do. He’s basically a manipulative, opportunist smart-arse.

Ken Dryden is a newcomer to politics – ex professional sportsman (a respected hockey player), he entered politics at the last but one election. Decent guy, but not the sharpest chisel in the bag of hammers.

These are three of the people in the race for the Liberal leadership – the other is Gerard Kennedy, former director of the Food Bank in Edmonton. He has done very well indeed here, positioning himself for the race after this one. He’s young enough, not arrogant and is smart. He is also in for the long haul, unlike Rae or Ignagtieff.

Commenting on these three (and the others in the race) is multimillionaire (family money) Belinda Stronach, who once ran for the leadership of the Conservative Party (lost), crossed the floor to join the Liberals in exchange for a cabinet position.

It’s an odd country. The second ballot for the leadership results just came out. They are:

Michael Ignatieff (Lazy Academicals) - 1,481 (up 2%)

Bob Rae (Switcheroo) - 1,132 (up 3%)

Stephan Dion (Lost in Translation) – 974 (up 2.8%)

Ken Dryden (The Puck Stops Here) - 219

Gerard Kennedy (Chippaquiddick) - 884

John Volpe (who had dead people on his campaign team as well as children under 10 – now with Bob Rae), Martha Hall Findlay (Dion) and Scott Brison (Rae) have all switched. Speculation is that Dryden will go to Rae and Dion will get Kennedy.

So it looks like it will be a long day. I for one will be glad when it is all over. I can’t take this pantomime much longer, and pantomime is what it is.

Stephen Harper, our Conservative Prime Minister, must be looking at all of this and smiling, after all – it does show an opposition party confused, split ideologically and electing someone who is not likely to find Ontario easy to carry.



 

A Series of Unofrtunate Events

You can tell where the media loyalties lie. Globe and Mail has several pages looking at the liberal leadership campaign – an amuse, it seems to me. CBC is dedicating what looks like most of the day to this gong show.

The fact that there is no real democracy here – it’s a delegate conference where a lot of bar trading is taking place (something that most mature political parties – except in the US – abandoned in the last century) or no real significance to this (Harper will win against any of the front runners, especially Ignatieffor Dion) doesn’t seem to occur to these writers and broadcasters. I have watched the CBC goon show for an hour now (nothing of significance appears to happen for long chunks of time, so its reality TV) and not a single mention of Alberta.

Most of the time on CBC involves unknown reporters talking to unknown people about a series of unfortunate events.

The Globe’s coverage of Alberta is a half page, half of which is a map. Go figure. Here we are in a country with 2.3% GDP h and Alberta has 5% where the Federal surplus is half that of Alberta and where the real key to our relationship with the US (oil) will be decided.

So here is my prediction – Stephane Dion will win the liberal leadership and Dinning will win the Alberta race, but it will be close and Ed Stalmach will do well (possibly beating Morton). Now I am off to vote.

Winter Nights Movies

Its cold - minus 30+ for part of the time, and we have a lot of snow. So movies. Here are the ones we have seen since I last posted.

Defence of the Realm – A British film with Denholm Elliot, Fulton McKay, Ian Bannem and others – made in 1985. A journalist looks at the link between a British MP and a Russian agent, which then leads to other things. Strong writing and a solid cast. Captures the challenges of journalists working on political stories with an edge. It is also strong on intrigue – a good, potentially classic, English film. Based in part on the Profumo case where a cabinet Minister and a Russian military attaché (KGB agent) shared a call girl called Mandy Rice Davis. The starting point for this film is this same story. Director David Drury maintains an understated tension throughout, helped by sombre and often striking cinematography by Roger Deakins, later favoured by the Coen Brothers. Robbie (Cracker) makes an appearance in this film.

Kiss, Kiss, Bang, Bang – Val Kilmer, Robert Downey Jnr and others in a well crafted film based on a Brett Halliday novel (Bodies are Where You Find Them) and directed by Shane Black. It’s a thriller mystery with a detective, an actress and an amusing story line. Fun – imaginative and well worth a glass of wine and an evening. (It is quirky!).

Beauty Shop – Queen Latifah starts in this simple comedy. It is simple. Did I mention simple. Well, yeah. Couldn’t sleep, turned it on, soon was snoring like a trooper. She is a very beautiful lady, by the way – but I couldn’t raise a smile here. Guess you had to be there.

Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire – you’ve got to like thr energy and imagination of these. I have not read the books, just watched the movies. So my knowledge of Rowling’s characters are all based on the films. Down to earth (ho ho) good family entertainment, even for a couple of old timing.

Shadowboxer – Helen Mirren is an assassin dying of cancer who lives with her step son, played by Cuba Gooding Jnr. A dark, difficult movie. Mirren takes on one last case – which gets complicated and a birth is involved. Mirren is simply a classic player in this (also saw her in the final Prime Suspect on TV). Gooding is also very strong in this movie. There are a lot of silences – careful dramatic moments, tensions. Not sure it works well, but anything with Mirren is worth watching. Intriguing, if not compelling.

The Badge – a small town cop (Billy Bob Thornton) investigates the murder of a transsexual and sees that politics may well have been involved. Patricia Arquette, William Devane and others in this 2003 movie, written and directed by Robby Hensen, who is currently working on House.

The Man Who Saved Christmas - A very charming feel-good seasonal tale of a man with strong dreams and expectations. Jason Alexander plays Erector Set inventor (similar to Meccano in the UK, who later bought the company), A.C. Gilbert, who is asked by the Government to urge citizens to cancel Christmas during the first world war and buy bonds instead of toys. Gilbert turns his toy manufacturing plant in a war supply plant making gas masks, bomb casings, chemical suits and bayonets among other things. Gilbert has a change of heart and goes with his deepest and long fostered dreams. He goes before the nation's Defense Counsel and gets permission to go back to making his toys. The toy maker still kept manufacturing war supplies, but also turned his own home into a producing center for more Erector Sets. After the war, Gilbert continued manufacturing Erector Sets, Chemistry Sets , Magician Trick Sets, trains and other toys for over forty years. Alexander is good in this role and light-years away from his role on TVs "Seinfeld" as George Costanzia. Also in the cast are Kelly Rowan, Ari Cohen, Ed Asner and Jake Brockman. Entertaining for all ages (provided you have a stiff scotch to hand).

Scoop – Woody Allen with Scarlett Johnasson, Ian McShane, Charles Dance and Hugh Jackman in this classic movie. In the line of Allen’s murder mystery series, the movie moves along well and is most enjoyable. Some great one liners from Woody (playing poker, someone says to about him “he’s very good with cards”, “yes,” he says “I bought my first Rubens by playing cards – best sandwich I ever had..”). Strongly recommended.

Cellular – Kim Bassinger (who wouldn’t watch this movie) and Chase Bloch star in this thriller. A woman is kidnapped and is able to make one call to a complete stranger and asks him to rescue her. Story evolves from here. Snakes on a Plane director David Ellis (also a skilled stuntman) directed. Strong start and it just keeps going. Bassinger acts well in this role (better than in Door in the Floor or L A Confidential). W H Macey is in this too - always makes for a more interesting film.

In addition I caught bits of other films during the last few weeks, but didn’t get through the first few minutes… the more we watch, the tougher it is to find something worth watching.

Intelligent Ways of Doing Nothing

A version of this piece will appear in Lifestyle 55+

The holidays, which is how we must now refer to Christmas, is one of those key dates in the retirement calendar – a great many people will retire at the end of the year. Linda Hughes, publisher of the Edmonton Journal, for example, has chosen this time to retire. In fact, 40% of retirees effectively choose this date.

The issue for them is how to “detox” themselves from the world of work. Think about it. For some thirty five to forty years, for some 50 weeks a year (a minimum of 10,500 days or 84,000 hours and up to 100,000 hours) these individuals “worked”. In other area of life, this would be an addiction. (I once formed a branch of Workaholics Anonymous, but no one showed up - they had work appointments).

So the key is to spend sometime doing nothing, but doing it in such a way that your mind adjusts to the fact of retirement. No more schedules, “must see” or “key tasks and outcomes” lists. No more strategic plans, business cases, budget processes, “cease and desist” conversations with recalcitrant staff. Just you and the world at your feet.

There are ten activities you can engage in which will lead to your mind understanding that your world has changed. They range from the very active to completely purposeful ways of doing nothing. Here they are:

Extreme Ironing - On 17th August 2006, 39 year old Londoner Louise Trewavas, aka "Dive Girl", claimed a new world record by ironing at a depth of 137m (452 feet) in the Blue Hole, at the Red Sea resort of Dahab. (The extreme ironing underwater record was first set by "Dive Girl" in 2003 with an impressive display of linen-pressing at 100m). Her latest feat was a response to Teignmouth-based diver John Rudolph hitting a new low and ironing a T-shirt on a 129m dive in July 2006. Extreme ironing has been undertaken at the top of Mount Rushmore, while sky diving from a light aircraft, while walking a tightrope across a major gorge in South Africa. Not only do you get the ironing done, but you get fit as well. The downside is that most people think you are completely nuts. There are books, films and web sites dedicated to extreme ironing.

Googlewhacking – you Goolge two words with the aim of getting Google to return just one web site. It only counts if it is a real website – not a list or a dictionary – and if both words on your search are in the online dictionary.com Dave Gorman went further: when he found a Google whack, he emailed the web site owner and then went to visit them. His book is a best seller. Go figure.

Newshounding – this may appeal to former journalists and publishers. Take an offbeat story – like the fact that MacDonald’se trying to patent the process of sandwich making – and see how this is reported elsewhere in the world. Look at the Daily Telegraph, Washington Post, Al Jazeera, Jerusalem Times and see what the coverage looks like. You can waste hours doing this.

Find Your Namesakes – when I had a bout of the flu, I managed to intelligently do nothing by finding other Stephen Murgatroyd’s on line and finding out what they do. Several were dentists (in fact five our of the twenty seven I found were – may suggest some genetic defect). Dave Gorman (notice how this name keeps cropping up) traveled the world to meet other Dave Gormans and got a TV show, book and a reputation for doing things that were a complete waste of time and very profitable.

File a Successful Patent – if MacDonald’s can patent the process of making a sandwich (I doubt that they will be able to do this, by the way), then why can’t you patent putting your socks on, walking backwards, singing barbershop in the shower, or – well, use your imagaination.

What Ever Happened To? – Aren’t you curious about some people that we all connected with, who are no longer around? Whatever happened to Danny de Vito (he was drunk on am TV last time I saw him) or Christopher Darden (prosecutor in the O J case – now a defense lawyer in his own firm), Newt Gingrich or Tommy Hunter? Research the people you are curious about.

Become a Wikist – the wikipedia is the worlds largest, fastest growing and most used encyclopedia – anyone can contribute or edit existing contributions. Use the wikipedia to look at topics you are interested in (Googlewhack for example) and improve what is on there. Danger – its addictive.

Become a Hunter – I don’t mean go out and shoot a Moose, but adopt a year (say, 1987) and look up the movies produced in that year (1987 movies include - 84 Charing Cross Road, Broadcast News, Lethal Weapon, Moonstruck, The Princess Bride, Raising Arizona, Roxanne, Bagdad Café, Prick up Your Ears and many more..), rent them and watch them.

Use the Library – one of the greatest inventions of mankind is the public library. Use it. Adopt an author – I am currently working on the novels of Kingsley Amis (I finished all of the Graeme Greene novels as well as the three volume biography earlier this year) – and read everything.

Travel – literally hundred of hours can be wasted intelligently by traveling to India, China, Nepal, Red Deer – pick up a thriller, work on your macramé, take up Suduki for the journey and use your library to get travel tips for what to do when you arrive. Eat the local food but drink bottled water.

There are other things you can do too – try to find something worth watching on television (hours can be wasted doing this), looking for all the ingredients for an Anthony Bourdain recipe in a single store; trying to get a straight answer from a politician; wondering why on earth CBC hasn’t canned The Royal Canadian Air Farce (no longer funny or cutting edge) or The Red Green Show; learning Welsh; going to the courthouse and sitting through a trial; buying a baton and conducting a performance of the Messiah in front of a mirror at home; losing weight – these are all things that take time, can be enjoyable, but are generally harmless and really don’t add up to much. Just what the brain needs to get the message: your world has changed - obviously, it has also improved!

Helpful Resources

1. 
   
   • Workaholics Anymous does exist - look at http://www.workaholics-anonymous.org/
   • Extreme Ironing is a real (and deeply meaningful) sport - see http://www.extremeironing.com/
   • Googlewhacking is also a serious business, just ask Dave Gorman - see http://www.googlewhack.com/
     
   • Newshounding is made easier by using Google to set up alerts - so that Google will automatically search the web for materials relevant to your interests. You can also use Attensa to automate "feeds" from RSS enabled web sites directly into your email.
   • Namesake Finding - another Google task.
   • File a Patent - anyone can file, so dont fall for the idea that you need a lawyer. There are firms which will helo you file a provisional patent for $99US - see http://patent-patent.com/
   • Whatever Happened to? - it depends what or who you are looking for. I spent time looking up actors I hadnt seen for a while and the best site for this is IMBd - www.imbd.com
   • Becoming a Wikist - just look up anything in the Wikipedia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia and now there is also wikispecies, wikibooks
     
   • Becoming a hunter - there are lots of lists avaiable online, my favourite being http://www.listology.com/index.cfm
     
   • Use the library - depends where you are, but you'd be surprised how many services they now offer. Great place to borrow CD;s and DVD's from.
   • Travel - book a self managed vacation via http://www.expedia.ca
     

   
   

Making a Sandwich May be an Infringement of Patent Rights

Apparently, it was announced today that McDonald's is seeking to patent sandwich making. And its not a machine they are trying to patent, it is the method of making deli sandwiches. Now maybe this is intellectual property protection being taken too far.

However, it got me thinking. I have not much to do in the last week of December, so I think I will try and patent: putting on socks after a night out on the town; shaving without cutting a hole in your cheek; washing behind the knees while standing; googlewhacking - how to get just one result from a two word google search; conducting an orchestra; singing in the rain.

Just think of the money I could make from third world countries who wont realise that I own all of this activity.

Time to change this thinking...

The Great Global Warming Hysteria

In the middle ages the earth was 3⁰C warmer than it is now. There were no glaciers in the tropical Andes – now there are three. Viking communities farmed in Greenland, which is now covered with permafrost. A Chinese naval fleet is said to have sailed round the Artic in 1421 and found no ice of substance. Global warming existed then, but this fact has been expunged from the UN’s global climate change ideology – its an inconvenient truth.

So too is the effect that the sun is having on our climate. The sun is hotter now than it has been for the past 11,400 years, according to a variety of sources. This inevitably has an impact on the earth’s climate. Recent Danish Space Centre research appears to confirm this. While the earth can absorb some of the new heat from the sun, some of it is reflected back, warming the atmosphere.

Another inconvenient truth is that there has been no atmospheric warming over the last 70 years, according to a significant group of scientists (see www.co2science.org ) . Data from the 1,221 sites of the US Historical Climatology Network demonstrate this – many places are actually cooler. This is not the same as surface warming, which is taking place. What is more, the climate change models used to predict the “catastrophic future” of the planet cannot be used to model past behaviour of the planet – that is, when they are used to reconstruct the last one hundred years they are inaccurate, predicting a much warmer climate than actually occurred.

In the last thirty years, a great expanse of Antarctica has cooled – as much as 2⁰C in some places, with the ice mass growing significantly in some places. While some warming of the western Antarctic ice sheet has occurred, the net result is a small (not catastrophic) loss of ice mass. While this supports some aspects of the so called climate change consensus, it does not support the “catastrophists”.

It is claimed that there is a consensus within the scientific community about climate change. There is not. 17,000 scientist signed a petition some years ago indicating their dissent. More recently, 41 of the leading scientists in Britain wrote to The Daily Telegraph indicating their rejection of the interpretation of climate change by the climate lobby. 60 leading scientists wrote In April to our own Prime Minister asking for science, not polemics, to determine strategy on climate change.

The Director of the UK’s Climate Research Unit suggests that the growingly “catastrophic” predictions about climate change by some scientists reflect their concerns about ongoing funding, the new round of post Kyoto negotiations and the blurring of the line between science and politics. Lord Monckton of Brenchley goes further and suggests that there is a blurring of the line between scientific discourse and politics – a blurring which damages both. The last time we saw such a “scientific consensus” was when it was understood that the earth is flat.

Scientists that do not follow the consensus, such as Bjon Lomberg, (author of The Skeptical Environmentalist) are castigated by others for challenging their view – yet the very foundation of science is challenge. “Group think” dominates and controls the flow of research funds and impairs our ability to get to the heart of the issues. Governments and the UN use science selectively. A recent report of a UK parliamentary committee which looks at the way in which government uses science suggests that it is selective, politically motivated and often just twisted to meet the policy position the Government has taken. There is no reason to think that any Government behaves differently. It is “politically correct science”.

There is, however, consensus that the “hockey stick” view of climate change – showing a relatively flat line that suddenly spikes at an angle upwards between the years 1800 – 2000 – is unfit for use and is based on questionable assumptions and a manipulation of different kinds of data. Yet many continue to use it. There is no consensus on the temperature of the last thousand years, other than recognition that the earth has been warmer than it is now.

What all of this has lead to is misguided policies, public fear about the future and a discrediting of science. It also leads to a focus on the wrong thing. The real focus needs to be on the future mix of our energy supplies, especially now that we know both oil and natural gas are (or will soon be) past peak production – supplies are in decline. We need reliable, abundant sources of energy. We need to revisit nuclear power, focus on substitutes to natural gas and oil and leverage investments in new energy technologies. This is the real scientific agenda.

A Small Surprise

Its been a week now. Last Thursday I had a small stoke, seeing double, feeling feint and generally anxious. Blood pressure 198/122 and blood glucose levels at 16. Admitted to the stroke clinic.

Both the Royal Alex hospoital and the University of Alberta looked after me well - saw me quickly, were very thorough and exhausted all f the resources available. I had a cat-scan - no cats were found - ultrasound (recordings of Barry Mannilow) on my arteries and I am soon to have an MRI.

Back on the meds (including 80mg of Lipitor - Lynne is on 10mg), diet and exercise - lost 4lbs in a week (at this rate I will be a sliver by Xmas).

Its a wake up call. I heard it. Thanks to all who have let me know their concern. I will be around a while.

November Films

Borat – schoolboy humour with a cynical twist – it makes American’s look thick and uneducated. Sasha Baron Cohen has done a magnificent job of revealing American’s for being American. Film is doing well – top box office two weeks in a row. I saw it opening day! Brave stuff.

Inside Man - Clive Owen, Denziel Washington, Jodie Foster and Willem Defoe in this bank robber thriller (which begins with great Bollywood music and terrific images) directed by Spike Lee. Hostage taking and negotiation drama - exceptionally well done, as we might expect from Spike Lee. Solid movie. Must see.

The Prairie Home Companion – fell asleep. I blame Garrison Keeler, he is so bored with his own show that it comes across in the movie. No wonder its no longer on the radio. Shouldn’t be on DVD either.

The End of Silence – an independent film. A ballerina from Russia stays in Toronto, has a relationship and then decides to go back to dance. That’s the plot. Gripped? I wasn’t. Dull as ditchwater. As exciting as a barium enema.

The Murders on Rue Morgue – George C Scott, Val Kilmer in this 1982 made for TV movie of an Edgar Allen Poe story. A period piece, set in Paris, not worth renting and hardly worth watching.

The Night Listener – a very strong, focused movie starring Robin Williams in one of those dark roles he plays so well. Toni Collette, who plays the female lead, is exceptionally strong. A great piece of writing here by Armistead Maupin, Terry Anderson and Patrick Strettner. It is based on a novel by Armistead Maupin.

Black Dahlia – an attempt at a cross between film noir and Mickey Spillane which doesn’t really come off. Interesting idea, but a slow film which needs stronger acting to carry the nuances and better direction and editing. A film with potential which is unfortunately not realized.

The daVinci Code – A good film – well executed version of the novel. Hanks is good.

Recent Films

Stay – a strange 2005 movie with Ewan McGregor, Naomi Watts and others. A psychiatrist tries to intervene to prevent a suicide. Pretentious, yet clever movie. Time warped story telling is a it of a currrent fad.

Greenfingers – based on a true story with Clive Owen and others. Prisoners find solace in gardening and enter a major garden show. Good story, well executed with Helen Mirren playing the grand dame of gardening. An outstanding performance by David Kelly (O'Reilly the builder from Fawlty Towers) as an aged Irish prisoner who is dying of cancer.

School Ties – Matt Damon, Ben Aflick, Chris O’Donnel in a 1992 (pre Good Will Hunting) movie about a posh school who admits a jewish boy because of his skills on the football field. Prejudice is the basis of the story. Good movie – interesting.

Bounce – Ben AflicK, Gwyneth Paltrow, Edward Edwards in this 2002 movie – nicely written and filmed. A man switches his plane ticket with another man and the plane crashes. Aflick loses himself in self pity and connects to the dead man’s wife and children…the story follows.

Niagara Motel – an odd group of people living in and around a motel tell provide the basis for these interlinked stories. Interesting small Canadian film, made in 2005.

Angel of Death – set in Seville in Spain and starring Mira Sorvino (who does not include this film in her IMB filmography under this title but uses the Spanish Semana Santa)about the avenging angels of a mother raped by the fascists. Not a bad film.

The American President – Anette Benning and Michael Douglas do a fine job of playing out a comedy with a message circa 1995 (pre Bush II). OK, its not a great movie, but its well done and both of these starts are at their best. Nice role for Michael J Fox (who now appears on political ads and gets the ire of Rush Limbaugh – he has also done a lot in Boston Legal and has a new film coming out in 2007).

Friends with Money – I had thought that Jennifer Aniston was become a skilled, quality actress after her appearance in Derailed. Sadly, she is in this pile of pants. Ego drivel, self centred shite from start to finish. Nothing redeemable about this film, other than the site of JA dressed in a sexy maid’s outfit. However, by the time this very short scene appeared, I was snoring… Poor writing, sloppy editing, no attempt at drama. Its pure California angst crap. JA made a big mistake doing this film.

The Break Up – Ms Aniston slightly redeems herself in this much better written and acted movie, thanks to Vince Vaughn (who wrote some of the script and was producer on this film). It’s a clever idea, well executed and you get to see JA nude (ish).

The Devil Wears Prada – a fun film, with the ever wonderful Meryl Streep and the very beautiful Anne Hathaway (Brokeback Mountain, Havoc, The Princess Diaries). Streep is excellent as the demanding boss (one or two of my colleagues didn’t see anything “devil” like in this performance at all – they saw as like some of the boss’s they have worked for) and the story line is strong (though at time far fetched).

The Da Vinci Code – a lot depends on whether you have read the book (I have). The book is far fetched, so is the film. The book is full of errors, so is the film. The plot line is basically silly in the book, so is the film. So get over these issues and see it as pure entertainment. Hanks is good as the lead character, but he is overshadowed by the acting strength of Audrey Tauto (Dirty Pretty Things, No Where to Go But Up and many French films) who plays Agent Sophie Neveu. The other strong performance here is from Paul Bettany (Wimbledon, Master and Commander), who plays Silas. Worth watching.

Pirates of the Caribbean – Dead Man’s Chest – not a good sequel. Too long, too convoluted, too much of a pastiche. Depp is actually taking the “p” out of his portrait of Capt. Jack Sparrow. Too flighty.

Kinky Boots – a great UK film in the tradition of good northern comedy dramas like the Full Monty. A shoe factory is likely to go out of business unless the recent CEO (by inheritance) can find a niche product to manufacture and sell. Boots for transvestites is the answer (obviously!), Based on a true story, this film revolved around one super piece of acting by Chewetel Ejiofor (Melinda and Melinda, Canterbury Tales, Dirty Pretty Things, Amistad). He is very convincing as an ex boxer turned transvestite called Lola. Good story, nice realistic drama. Favourite line comes from Lola’s landlady who asks “Are you a man or a woman?”. Lola hesitates (dramatically) and answers “a man” – then the landlady says “Oh that’s fine, just needed to know how to leave the toilet seat when I clean…” – landlady played by the Welsh character actress of undertimed age, Gwenllian Davies (Little Britain, Onegin..).

The Prizewinner of Defiance, Ohio – another true story finds its way onto film. Julianne Moore plays a woman who keeps her family together by entering and winning competitions. Woody Harrelson plays the lingering, lackluster husband who loafs and squanders while the family struggles.

THE NEXT SECRETARY GENERAL

The next Secretary General of the United Nations has now been chosen. It will be Ban Ki-Moon of South Korea. An informal vote on Monday October 2nd of the key members of the Security Council confirmed that he would be their choice.

Ban Ki Moon (62) has been Foreign and Trade Minister of South Korea and a diplomatic politician. Mr. Ban sees himself as a 'harmonizer, balancer, mediator'. A quiet, careful and deliberate man, he has shown courage in a number of small ways. He was the first South Korean foreign minister to visit Israel and took the initiative to find new ways of connecting with the regime in North Korea. He has also played a leading role in the six-nation talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear ambitions. He is a backroom diplomat with little charisma. This concerns some, who see him as too low profile and not ambitious for the UN.

He faces major challenges. The UN is in need of significant and urgent reform – it needs to focus, do what it says it is going to do and reduce the rhetoric and increase performance. For example, the current Secretary General has talked eloquently and often about the need for intervention in Darfur - but the UN has done nothing. While Kofi Annan started a reform process, it was too timid, too little and took longer than anyone anticipated.

There are also concerns about corruption and sexual exploitation – UN troops exploiting their position for sex and corrupt UN officials in the food for oil scams which plagued the UN during 2005. Many have also expressed concerns about the growing complexity of the UN’s structure and the inability of many of its “parts” to deliver against their objectives.

The UN’s finances are also very problematic. As of May 2006, unpaid membership fees amounted to over US$1.2b, with the US being the largest single debtor.

The US continues to express serious reservations about the ability of the UN to act in a decisive, informed and effective way. They cite not just Darfur, but also the UN response to natural disasters, the growing concerns over the UN Human Rights Council’s membership (which has as members Cuba, China, Pakistan, Russia and Saudi Arabia), and the financial state of the UN. Other key security council members are concerned about the reluctance of member states to back their vocal commitments to peace with troop commitments – the US bearing the brunt of this work.

A more fundamental problem is that the UN has clearly failed in several key situations. It failed to prevent a coalition of its members from invading Iraq; failed to secure middle east peace – as was most clearly seen in the recent Hezbolla-Isreal war in Lebanon; failed in Rwanda – the list goes on. The UN is an institution with great ambitions, but may not be an institution capable of delivering to these expectations. The US sees the UN as an ineffective talking shop. It is convenient for them to do so – it gives them license to act as a world police force independently of the UN. Their support of Nam Ki-Moon (known by journalists in his own country as “slippery eel”) is seen by some as cynical – they don’t think he will change the UN, and so they continue to behave independently.

Then there is a problem of some of the UN members violating the UN charter and their obligations of membership, but continuing to be members – Zimbabwe comes to mind. No UN Secretary General has had the courage to ask the organization to expel a member.

Canada supports the nomination of Mr. Ban Ki-Moon, and we should all wish him good luck in the position he will assume on January 1^st 2007. It will not be an easy task and the world will be watching his every move.

GUNS N TEACHERS

Following the shooting of Amish children at a school in the US – one of a series of shootings at schools in the US – there is a serious conversation about arming teachers. That is, giving teachers guns. This is being proposed by Representative Frank Lasee (no relation to the dog) of Wisconsin. He notes that this is the case in Israel – a place where terrorists attack with some frequency.

When I went to school in Britain, my teachers were armed. They each had leather straps with which they used to beat us whenever we broke some rule which they had just made up. One teacher refused to carry this weapon, he used a large ruler instead. Another used a pair of serving spoons which he hit us on the head with.

Arming teachers may help improve reading and literacy skills. I’d quickly learn to read if I had a gun to my head. A couple of discharges into the ceiling and I’d memorize Proust.

Think what a twelve gauge shotgun could do for mathematics or an Ouzi for science. The possibilities are endless.

Such a good idea, Frank. I think I’ll offer to sponsor the guns at my local kindergarten.

BRINGING DEMOCRACY TO ALBERTA

One slogan we have yet to see from the Progressive Conservative leadership candidates is “restore democracy to Alberta”. It is not surprising – the leadership race itself lacks some of the basic electoral oversights most democracies would insist upon.

There are no controls over how much can be spent by an individual candidate or his campaign. Nor are their rules restricting the source of funds wihin Province – funds can be raised in other Provinces, though there are limits on individual donations. Membership of the party is the basis for “winning”, so candidates are measured by memberships sold – and some individuals have more than one membership (the PC web site actually encourages multiple membership purchases). The old slogan “vote early and vote often” seems to apply. Not exactly a role model for an advanced democracy.

But the democratic deficit is not just within the PC party, it is in the Province. Our legislature sits for a very short period of time – making it difficult to hold ministers to account and to seriously debate legislation. It needs to sit for longer and to have a more focused, rigorous agenda.

Too many decisions are processed through regulation passed through cabinet but not debated in the house. More needs to done through serious debate and disclosure through legislation, white papers and policy review. The fact that tuition policy for post secondary education can be decided without debate in the House demonstrates that the house is not taken seriously.

Standing policy committees are weak – simply subsets of caucus pushing the party line. We need to reform these and make them all party committees with tough powers to hold ministers and their officials to account and to challenge the performance, policy and practice of Government. We will know these are successful when they begin to report on policy and practice as strongly and effectively as the Auditor General does on value for money.

Business plans from government ministers vary greatly in their focus, clarity and value. Strengthened standing policy committees should challenge these, demand more and hold ministry’s to account against them. They should also receive monthly scorecards showing how the Departments are doing against these plans – scorecards that should be made public.

Alberta also needs whistleblower legislation that protects public servants who find it necessary, as a last resort, to blow the whistle on malpractice, inefficiency and deception. Public servants are dedicated, skilled and committed individuals who take their work seriously and wish to do public good. When they encounter serious issues, they should tackle them with all the professional skills and resources at their disposal. But if there is something seriously wrong, they should be able to speak out.

Access to government information has improved in Alberta during the last five years – look at what we know about the use of the Government jet. It could be improved further, reducing the power of Government to declare subjects “off limits” to the press and others seeking information and requiring a faster turn-around for this information.

The public expects tough controls over spending and to receive quarterly reports on the financial performance of Government. We should also expect quarterly reports on the performance of Government against its business plans – what is working, what is not, what issues are emerging, what challenges are being faced. For example, reports on the labour shortage, on progress on environmental issues or on the governments own staffing issues – all would be examples of a Government making its work transparent, open to debate.

Public consultation on such things as land use, environment, education need also to be more rigorous. Groups wishing to engage in consultation should have access to quality information, “what if” models being used within Departments for planning and be able to work with public servants to access quality data. Such access is currently varied and needs to be improved.

Alberta faces many challenges. This is a tipping point for our future. It would be good to have confidence that a new leader saw democracy as a key feature of our future. Right now, its open to debate.