Telling It as It Is

Canadian’s do not like straight talk. They don’t like straight talk about the need for a rethink of our health system with ways of further integrating private practice into the system. They don’t like to recognize that we are no longer amongst the leading peace keepers in the world. They don’t like to acknowledge that our workforce productivity is low in comparison to our major competitors. Most of all, they don’t like to acknowledge some harsh truths about the environment. A part of the Canadian psychology is denial.

Kyoto is not a strategy for saving the planet. If fully implemented, it may have a modest impact on global warming – slowing its progress for three to five years. That’s it. In part this is because climate change is part of a natural cycle, driven by a combination of factors of which green house gas emissions are just one. In part it is because the strategies to reduce emissions are not to be embraced by all.

But there are other environmental truths it is hard for people to accept. First, not all solutions are in fact solutions. Take biofuels as one example. Advocates suggest that we should replace gasoline with fuels derived from plants and woodlands. To replace ten percent of the world’s fuel supply would require so much agricultural and woodlands that it would force food prices high, impact livestock farming, increase global poverty and lead to massive disruption of the world’s agricultural economy. Further, biofuels produce greenhouse gases – in some cases the nitrous oxide is more damaging to the environment than gasoline.

Next, take energy and the call for us to replace coal fired power plants with renewable energy sources – hydro power, wind power, geothermal and solar. While increasing the portion of our energy supply from such sources may be desirable, supply from these sources will not replace non renewables as the primary source of energy in the world until new energy sources – especially fusion – become affordable on an industrial scale. For the foreseeable future, coal and natural gas will be the dominant sources of energy. Get used to it.

Third, the kind of actions Canadian’s have been encouraged to take – changing their light bulbs, turning off electrical appliances, not drinking bottled water, driving hybrid or electric cars, installing a thermostat – are all sensible things to do, but they will have little impact on climate change. Even if every Canadian did all of these things with the fervour of an Oiler’s fan in a playoff game, China’s coal fired power plants (there is a new plant opening every week and will be for the next three years) will quickly replace the emission saved.

Then there are offsets. This is where, each time you fly or heat your home, you can purchase an offset which permits someone somewhere else to do something good for the planet. This unregulated market has had its problems with some of the schemes being fraudulent, but in principle it’s a medieval idea: you could buy pardons from the Church for the sins you had committed and buy eternal redemption. Offsets are the same thing – someone somewhere else plants trees or invests in wind and solar so that you can continue to travel by air. So few people buy offsets that it is a negligible “solution” – worse, the evidence appears to suggest that this buying of pardons actually increases the volume of air travel, defeating the underlying purpose.

Finally, there is “the science”. It is often said that there is a global consensus amongst scientists that man is causing global warming. This is simply not true. What is true is that the dominant paradigm at this time amongst the scientific community is the theory of global warming in which CO2 emissions are seen as a primary (but not the only) cause. There are disputes amongst those who then look at impacts – on oceans, agriculture, and climate. There are disputes amongst those building models of climate – this is why there are so many of them, not all arriving at the same specific conclusions. There are many errors – just read the UK Court judgement about Al Gore’s film which identifies nine errors of fact in an Inconvenient Truth – and omissions. But it is a theory. There are other theories that compete with this and evidence in support of these too. This is how science works. We are still exploring the science – it is not, despite what the IPPC says, “settled”.

So when the Prime Minister says it is not possible for us to meet the Kyoto targets, he is right to do so. When he says that technology is the way forward he is right to do so. We should capture and use as much carbon, sulphur and nitrous oxide as we can and find good use for all three. We should continue to invest in fusion and fuel cells and alternative energy sources. We should challenge our best and brightest to get past Kyoto and look at new ways to provide energy and transport for our economy. But face up to it: there are no quick fixes, no magic bullets and no simple solutions to complex environmental problems.

So, fellow Canadians, Kyoto is dead. Long live the environment – it will be here long after we all are. Get used to it.

So Long UK, It Was Nice Being a Brit...

Britain is about to change in ways which suggest that its leadership has lost the plot. Gordon Brown, the Anthony Eden of the twenty first century, is about to sign an EU agreement which transfers a great deal of power and authority to Brussels and the unelected EU commission and its agencies. This despite promising at the last election that a referendum would be held over the terms of any revised EU constitution. In a battle of the elite versus the people, which is how this can be characterized as, everyone loses.

The UK government argues that it has negotiated “red lines” or boundaries which are opt-outs on key areas - human rights, tax and benefits, foreign policy and justice – leads them to believe that there will be no significant transfer of power to Brussels. Few agree. In fact, the House of Commons Select Committee sees the treaty to be signed as almost identical to the EU constitution which was rejected two years ago.

If a state cannot control its legal system, tax system or foreign policy what is it?

If a constitution is rejected by ballot, how can the administration implement it without a ballot?

If justice is to be transferred to the EU, which British court can hear a challenge to the signing of the treaty?

If human rights abuse issues are now matters for the EU, who can use the human rights legislation to challenge the right of Gordon Brown to take them away?

Apart from the cynicism being used by the Prime Minister and his cabinet to promote the treaty - treating the electorate as fools is always a mistake, they come back and bite you - the manipulation of facts and emotions here does a discredit to all.

Oprah is Basically Not Very Bright

Oprah is losing it. Its official. She had a wonderful opportunity on Monday to shine - she had Seinfeld for an hour and bloew it. Today she had a gobbledegook natural homeopathic doctor who spoke jibberish for an hour and she fell for it. We all have good days and bad days, Oprah is just having bad ones.

Its time for her to quit before she completely goes to pieces.

Mountains are Growing

The Daily Telegraph reports today that Mont Blanc has grown. The volume of ice on Mont Blanc's slopes has almost doubled since 2005 to reach 24,100 cubic metres this year, while snow has built up due to greater frequency of winds and higher temperatures in the summer, believed to be cause by global warming.

So, polar bears are not dying in large numbers, some ice fields in both the Arctic and Antarctic are growing as well as some ice caps on mountains around the world.....

Its NOT all doom and gloom.

Quote Unquote

The Times of London printed this list of quotes from, well smart people. I share it in the spirit of encouragement for others.

1 Oscar Wilde “Only dull people are brilliant at breakfast”

2 Spike Milligan “All I ask is the chance to prove that money can’t make me happy”

3 Stephen Fry “An original idea. That can’t be too hard. The library must be full of them”

4 Jeremy Clarkson “Speed has never killed anyone, suddenly becoming stationary . . . that’s what gets you”

5 Sir Winston Churchill “A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen”

6 Paul Merton “I’m always amazed to hear of air crash victims so badly mutilated that they have to be identified by their dental records. If they don’t know who you are, how do they know who your dentist is?”

7 Noel Coward “People are wrong when they say opera is not what it used to be. It is what it used to be. That is what’s wrong with it.”

8 Shakespeare “Maids want nothing but husbands, and when they have them, they want everything”

9 Brian Clough “The River Trent is lovely, I know because I have walked on it for 18 years”

10 Liam Gallagher “She [Victoria Beckham] cannot even chew gum and walk in a straight line at the same time, let alone write a book.”

The New Anthony Eden

What a long time a month in politics can be. A month ago, Prime Minister Gordon Brown looked assured, confident and a winner. He had come through a tough period in his first 100 days and showed that he could handle tough stuff – a terrorist attack, mad cow disease, a history of drug use amongst cabinet members – and that he was able to let his Ministers lead. A good party conference led to speculation that a snap election would be called to give him a mandate – he has until 2010 and could have had a mandate to 2012.

Now he looks like a loser – the conservatives are 7 points ahead in the polls, David Cameron the young Tory leader looks assured, articulate and solid. Brown looks dishevelled and adrift. What happened?

Two things. Everyone supports a leader at a time of crisis if they show that they are competent. They don’t support one who appears duplicitous. Brown is duplicitous. He started and encouraged speculation about a snap election and had Ministers make clear election announcements – some troops back from Iraq and a major change in estate duty – before squashing the election once he read the poll data. He also says that the EU Treaty he will sign in Lisbon this week is so different from the EU Constitution that was rejected two years ago that it no longer requires a referendum. He is lying – its pretty close to identical, at least according to a parliamentary select committee. Since a referendum was promised on the constitution at the last election by the Labour party, he is repudiating a promise.

His troop withdrawal from Iraq turns out also to be smoke and mirrors. Its not a new number – some of the troops are already home. Cameron savaged him in the house and he withdrew into his shell.

The British press are all over this like a dirty shirt. Comparisons with Anthony Eden are floating, as are comparisons with Blair (Blair is looking good, apparently – how quickly we forget!). Some have started the search for a successor (Brown passed his first 100 days recently). Others are looking to beef up Cameron as the next PM. So its quite a time.

Brown will ride it out, but something significant is going on and it will be interesting to watch.

More Tommy Cooper

1. Two blondes walk into a building....you'd think at least one of them would have seen it..

2. Phone answering machine message - "...If you want to buy marijuana, press the hash key..."

3. A guy walks into the psychiatrist wearing only Clingfilm for shorts. The shrink says, "Well, I can clearly see you're nuts."

4. I went to buy some camouflage trousers the other day but I couldn't find any.

5. I went to the butchers the other day and I bet him 50 quid that he couldn't reach the meat off the top shelf. He said, "No, the steaks are too high."

6. My friend drowned in a bowl of muesli. A strong currant pulled him in.

7. A man came round in hospital after a serious accident. He shouted, "Doctor, doctor, I can't feel my legs!" The doctor replied, "I know you can't, I've cut your arms off.
8. I went to a seafood disco last week...and pulled a muscle.

9. Two Eskimos sitting in a kayak were chilly. They lit a fire in the craft, it sank, proving once and for all that you can't have your kayak and heat it too.

10. Our ice cream man was found lying on the floor of his van covered with hundreds and thousands. Police say that he topped himself.

11. Man goes to the doctor, with a strawberry growing out of his head. Doc says "I'll give you some cream to put on it."

12. 'Doc I can't stop singing The Green, Green Grass of Home' "That sounds like Tom Jones syndrome. 'Is it common?' "It's not unusual."

13. A man takes his Rotteweiller to the vet. "My dog is cross-eyed, is there anything you can do for him?" "Well," said the vet, "let's have a look at him" So he picks the dog up and examines his eyes, then he checks his teeth. Finally, he says, "I'm going to have to put him down.""What? " Because he's cross-eyed?" "No, because he's really heavy"

14. Guy goes into the doctor's. "Doc, I've got a cricket ball stuck up my backside." "How's that?" "Don't you start.."

15. Two elephants walk off a cliff...boom, boom!

16. What do you call a fish with no eyes? A fish.

17. So I was getting into my car, and this bloke says to me "Can you give me a lift?" I said "Sure, you look great, the world's your oyster, go for it.'

18. Apparently, 1 in 5 people in the world are Chinese. There are 5 people in my family, so it must be one of them. It's either my mum or my Dad, or my older Brother Colin, or my younger Brother Ho-Cha-Chu? But I think its Colin.

19. Two fat blokes in a pub, one says to the other "Your round." The other one says "So are you, you fat b*****d!"

20. Police arrested two kids yesterday, one was drinking battery acid, and the other was eating fireworks. They charged one and let the other one off.

21. "You know, somebody actually complimented me on my driving today. They left a little note on the windscreen. It said, 'Parking Fine.' So that was nice."

22. A man walked into the doctors, he said, "I've hurt my arm in several places" The doctor said, "Well don't go there anymore"

23. .. Ireland 's worst air disaster occurred early this morning when a small two-seater Cessna plane crashed into a cemetery. Irish search and rescue workers have recovered 1826 bodies so far and expect that number to climb As digging continues into the night

PEACE PRIZE FOR GORE - THE UNTRUTHFUL MAN

Al Gore (along with the IPCC) has won the Nobel Prize for peace by championing untruthfulness - according to a UK Court.

An interesting two days for Gore. About twenty minutes ago he won the Nobel prize, making him the high priest of the church of Global Warming - not even this Pope has won an Emmy, Golden Globe, Oscar and Nobel Prize.

Yesterday, the UK High Court ruled that his film An Inconvenient Truth contains nine errors of scientific fact. These are:

Mr Gore claims that a sea-level rise of up to 20 feet would be caused by melting of either West Antarctica or Greenland "in the near future". The judge said: "This is distinctly alarmist and part of Mr Gore's "wake-up call". He agreed that if Greenland melted it would release this amount of water - "but only after, and over, millennia"."The Armageddon scenario he predicts, insofar as it suggests that sea level rises of seven metres might occur in the immediate future, is not in line with the scientific consensus." The film claims that low-lying inhabited Pacific atolls "are being inundated because of anthropogenic global warming" but the judge ruled there was no evidence of any evacuation having yet happened. The documentary speaks of global warming "shutting down the Ocean Conveyor" - the process by which the Gulf Stream is carried over the North Atlantic to western Europe. Citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the judge said that it was "very unlikely" that the Ocean Conveyor, also known as the Meridional Overturning Circulation, would shut down in the future, though it might slow down. Mr Gore claims that two graphs, one plotting a rise in C02 and the other the rise in temperature over a period of 650,000 years, showed "an exact fit". The judge said that, although there was general scientific agreement that there was a connection, "the two graphs do not establish what Mr Gore asserts". Mr Gore says the disappearance of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro was directly attributable to global warming, but the judge ruled that it scientists have not established that the recession of snow on Mt Kilimanjaro is primarily attributable to human-induced climate change. The film contends that the drying up of Lake Chad is a prime example of a catastrophic result of global warming but the judge said there was insufficient evidence, and that "it is apparently considered to be far more likely to result from other factors, such as population increase and over-grazing, and regional climate variability." Mr Gore blames Hurricane Katrina and the consequent devastation in New Orleans on global warming, but the judge ruled there was "insufficient evidence to show that". Mr Gore cites a scientific study that shows, for the first time, that polar bears were being found after drowning from "swimming long distances - up to 60 miles - to find the ice" The judge said: "The only scientific study that either side before me can find is one which indicates that four polar bears have recently been found drowned because of a storm."That was not to say there might not in future be drowning-related deaths of bears if the trend of regression of pack ice continued - "but it plainly does not support Mr Gore's description". Mr Gore said that coral reefs all over the world were being bleached because of global warming and other factors. Again citing the IPCC, the judge agreed that, if temperatures were to rise by 1-3 degrees centigrade, there would be increased coral bleaching and mortality, unless the coral could adapt. However, he ruled that separating the impacts of stresses due to climate change from other stresses, such as over-fishing, and pollution was difficult.

The ruling follows a challenge the the UK Government's decision to ask that the film be shown to every student in a UK school. The judge ruled that this could occur only if these errors of fact were drawn to the attention of every student.

Reaction to Gore's global warming Nobel prize is very mixed. The UK's Daily Telegraph has leaders today indicating that he has done so little for peace that the award makes a mockery of the prize. This is what Damian Thomson says:

"The former US Vice-President has already taken over from Michael Moore as the most sanctimonious lardbutt Yank on the planet. Can you imagine what he'll be like now that the Norwegian Nobel committee has given him the prize?More to the point, can you imagine how enormous his already massive carbon footprint will become once he starts jetting around the world bragging about his new title?"

- and there will be more like this throughout the day. Many speculate that he may now consider a run for President, but given his status as the head of a religious order (The Church of Global Warming) and superstar who is also now a very wealthy man, why would he bother?

Soccer Saves the World

Robert Mugabe is one of the most despicable despots in the modern world. He has reduced Zimbabwe to a shambles of a country, killed millions either with bullets or through starvation and has pursued his tribal vendetta in a way that makes Idi Amin look almost modest.

But he is still there. Omnipotent, serene and vicious. He is a personification of evil in the contremporary world. If there is a real axis of evil, I would look to Mugabe before I looked to the leadership of North Korea or the completely loony tune who is President of Iran.

But there is hope. The World Cup will be in South Africa in 2010. It is unacceptable to other African leaders that many countries may boycott the soccer if Mugabe intends to attend as President of Zimbabwe. If he is not gone by other means – a bullet, bomb or the final consequences of syphilis (or whatever it is that ails him) – he will be removed before embarrassing the continent at the games.

For once, we can say that Soccer helped Save the World.

TOMMY COOPER

One of the greatest English comedians of all time was Tommy Cooper - big bloke, wore a fez and did magic tricks, most of which did not work. While doing tricks, he would tell one line gags... here are some of his best:

I went to the local video shop and I said "Can I borrow Batman Forever?" He said, "No, you'll have to bring it back tomorrow"

Batman came up to me and he hit me over the head with a vase and he went T'PAU! I said "Don't you mean KAPOW?? He said "No, I've got china in my
hand."

I went into a shop and I said, "Can someone sell me a kettle." The bloke said "Kenwood?" I said, "Where is he then?"

I met the bloke who invented crosswords today. I can't remember his name, it's P something T something R.

I was reading this book today, The History Of Glue. I couldn't put it down.

I phoned the local ramblers club today, but the bloke who answered just went on and on.

The recruitment consultan asked me "What do you think of voluntary work?? I said "I wouldn't do it if you paid me."

I was in the jungle and there was this monkey with a tin opener. I said, "You don't need a tin opener to peel a banana." He said, "No, this is for the custard."

This policeman came up to me with a pencil and a piece of very thin paper. He said, "I want you to trace someone for me."


I phoned the local builders today, I said to them "Can I have a skip outside my house?" He said, "I'm not stopping you!"

This cowboy walks in to a German car showroom and he says "Audi!"

I fancied a game of darts with my mate. He said, "Nearest the bull goes first" He went "Baah" and I went "Moo" He said "You're closest"

I was driving up the motorway and my boss phoned me and he told me I'd been promoted. I was so shocked I swerved the car. He phoned me again to
say I'd been promoted even higher and I swerved again. He then made me managing director and I went right off into a tree. The police came and
asked me what had happened. I said "I careered off the road"

I visited the offices of the RSPCA today. It's tiny: you couldn't swing a cat in there.

I phoned the local gym and I asked if they could teach me how to do the splits. He said, "How flexible are you?" I said, "I can't make Tuesdays
or Thursdays."

I kind of miss him really...

The 10 Things that Get Me Riled

I have been quiet. People have noticed. I am sorry. Hope to get back on track. I have been quietly fuming about ten things. Here they are:

1. Airport Security - last week I was at the airport at 0500, don't ask me why. There were just six passengers, but over 25 security guards. They are so ignorant that I was able to walk on with a ceramic and very sharp knife but they were very suspicious of my Sony e-Book reader. I just don't get it.

2. The Modern Terror - Cyclists! I am talking about the ignorant, law breaking cyclists who ride on sidewalks. Not only is this illegal in Edmonton, it is very dangerous. Who do these people think they are? Its time to go to war against these modern terrorists.

3. Spandex - speaking of cyclists, who gave middle aged men and flabby people permission to wear tight spandex as part of the campaign of poor dressing?

4. Britney Spears - or, more accurately, the press covering her. Poor woman, as if she is not disturbed enough - we don't need to know!

5. The Traffic Guy on CBC Edmonton Radio (PM) - don't know who he is, but his voice sounds like he is sitting on a large cone shaped object - its strained, quirky and well down right annoying. Worse, they have started asking him to do longer pieces, as if it wasn't enough to inflict pain on us with his traffic reports. Take him off the air before his hernia bursts! (Peter Brown, the host of the Radio Active show, is, however, excellent - largely because he is so unpredictable).

6. Canadian Thinking About Soldiers- We have a mission in Afghanistan right now and its a tough one. Many Canadians think our troops should not be put in harms way. If this is the case, we should have an army of social workers not trained fighters. Since we began working in Afghanistan we have lost 71 fine soldiers and 1 diplomat. A small price to pay for a larger mission. We lost 67,000 in the first world war. Imagine if each had been treated to the kind of publicity (which would have been well deserved) that we give each death now. Soldiers fight. They aim to kill. This is part of what they do. Get used to it.

7. Jack Layton - is he pompous or what? I know he is short, but he doesn't need to be a jerk all of the time - or does he? My father used to complain about people like Jack - he'd look at them, listen to them and say to me "don't trust him lad, his arse is too near the ground".

8. The Portuguese Police - I have some slight connection to Portugal. My daughter in law is of Portuguese descent and I regularly drink a glass of port. I also like the look of the country. But the police investigation of the Madeline McCann kidnapping and likely murder strikes me as largely incompetent. I look at the parents and just want to reach out and hug them. I look at the Portuguese policeman who was in charge of the investigation (now fired) and want to hit him.

9. Fitness Posers - I am back at the YMCA playing squash and such like, but having to cope with the men and women who are there for other reasons. Such posers - I am sure some are stuffing tissues where they don't belong.

10. George W Bush - 43rd President of the US. In the world of technology there is a law known as Moore's law. It is basically that the capacity of a memory chip in a computer doubles every eighteen months. It also applies to such things as chip speed. In politics I would like to propose Murgatroyd's law. It is this: The IQ required to destroy the planet falls by 1 point each month. Bush said that other day that Madella was dead. Nelson Madella called him to thank him for thinking about his father.

Notice I haven't mentioned Oprah. The poor lady. Its time she quit. She is showing us more and more of her naivetee and ignorance with every show. Nor I have mentioned the dreadful films I have seen recently - like Oceans 13. I am just warming up for the blogging season.

Biofuels are Bad for the Environment

A recent international study has found that BioFuels such as Ethanol emite up to 70% more greenhouse gases, particularly nitrous oxide, than fossil fuel. Nitrous Oxide is 300 times more damaging than carbon monoxide. This is the second study that has come to this conclusion, which will surely be brushed aside by the likes of Al Gore and others that want to blame humans for Gloabal Warming. The alternative fuels sources are becoming slimmer. More Green Credits please…

Another hiddedn jem in this article, that the liberal left will deny, is that the study also found that the human effect, man-made causes, is only responsible for 2% of Global Warming. Holy Jesus, what about the other 98%? Please Mr. Gore, answer that. Additionally if the US were to move to biofuels,, man-made emissions would rise to 6%, that is a 300% increase in greenhouse gases. Time to wake up America, the liberals are using smoke a mirrors, ultimately to make money for themselves.

The Al Gore campers have been trying to convince the public were are all so bad and we need to spend massive amounts of money to change to “green” engery and we will have to give up our daily convinience unless we have green credits. What a load of crap. Speaking of crap, guess what contains a lot of nitrogen based compounds that release into the air. Guess what will be used to rapidly grow corn for Ethanol. If you guessed the crap that keeps coming from the Gore campers, your were right.

A renewable energy source designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is contributing more to global warming than fossil fuels, a study suggests.

Measurements of emissions from the burning of biofuels derived from rapeseed and maize have been found to produce more greenhouse gas emissions than they save.

Other biofuels, especially those likely to see greater use over the next decade, performed better than fossil fuels but the study raises serious questions about some of the most commonly produced varieties.

Rapeseed and maize biodiesels were calculated to produce up to 70 per cent and 50 per cent more greenhouse gases respectively than fossil fuels. The concerns were raised over the levels of emissions of nitrous oxide, which is 296 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Scientists found that the use of biofuels released twice as much as nitrous oxide as previously realised. The research team found that 3 to 5 per cent of the nitrogen in fertiliser was converted and emitted. In contrast, the figure used by the International Panel on Climate Change, which assesses the extent and impact of man-made global warming, was 2 per cent. The findings illustrated the importance, the researchers said, of ensuring that measures designed to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions are assessed thoroughly before being hailed as a solution.

“One wants rational decisions rather than simply jumping on the bandwagon because superficially something appears to reduce emissions,” said Keith Smith, a professor at the University of Edinburgh and one of the researchers.

Maize for ethanol is the prime crop for biofuel in the US where production for the industry has recently overtaken the use of the plant as a food. In Europe the main crop is rapeseed, which accounts for 80 per cent of biofuel production.

Professor Smith told Chemistry World: “The significance of it is that the supposed benefits of biofuels are even more disputable than had been thought hitherto.”

It was accepted by the scientists that other factors, such as the use of fossil fuels to produce fertiliser, have yet to be fully analysed for their impact on overall figures. But they concluded that the biofuels “can contribute as much or more to global warming by N2 O emissions than cooling by fossil-fuel savings”.

The research is published in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, where it has been placed for open review. The research team was formed of scientists from Britain, the US and Germany, and included Professor Paul Crutzen, who won a Nobel Prize for his work on ozone.

Dr Franz Conen, of the University of Basel in Switzerland, described the study as an “astounding insight”.

“It is to be hoped that those taking decisions on subsidies and regulations will in future take N2O emissions into account and promote some forms of ’biofuel’ production while quickly abandoning others,” he told the journal’s discussion board.

Dr Dave Reay, of the University of Edinburgh, used the findings to calculate that with the US Senate aiming to increase maize ethanol production sevenfold by 2022, greenhouse gas emissions from transport will rise by 6 per cent.

Real Torture, British Style

A friend says that the three most depressing words in the English language are "Come On Tim!", referring to the shouts we all make at our TV sets in support of Tim Henman, the tennis luckless British player.

Each year for the past 14 we have watched him at Wimbledon. He gets good and then gets bad and then wins and then looses. Its painful to watch - he is like a schoolboy (despite the fact that he is 30 ands still doesn't have a tattoo). His gestures show that he is focused, in pain and probably constipated.

As I watch, he looks like taking his game with the Spanish player Lopez to a fifth set, having lost the first two in tie breakers. This is a second round game - if he goes through, well more pain.

He has made it clear that he will not retire this year. This means more pain. I suspect he would make an excellent Prozac salesman - he probably is accounting for around 20% of UK sales just by playing Wimbledon. He is in fact a property speculator.

He looks like the kind of guy whose most exciting moment is finding a penny in a pair of trousers he hasn't worn for a while.

Why I put myself through this agony of watching him every year I do not know. It must suggest something about my psychological needs.

The New Terror Walk

Harold is 72. He lives in Blackpool but comes from Oldham - and he hasn't lost his accent. Its broad, but in a sophisticated way. He is very fit. He walks every day, usualy 6-10 miles, and is a walking holiday guide for HF Holidays. He was our guide on our walking holiday in Italy.

We walked the 70+ KM from Bonosola to Le Spezia over the course of a number of days. The walk includes the Cinque Terra (five villages), which we did in a day. Some of the walk is tough, especially the last section (Riomaggiore to La Spezia) where we scrambled, struggled on very narrow paths and had a difficult scree based descent. But it was worth it. Each day we did some 2500+ feet of "up" - sometimes tough "up" - and pushed our legs up many many steep steps or difficult up.

Our guide - Harold - was wonderful. His Italian accent wasn't. When he introduced the walk it was the "Chinky Terror" (sounds like the Chinese Al Quida). The village of Vernazza became Venessa and Sistri Levanti became Central Lavanto - but he was fun, tolerant and very generous with his spirit of care and kindness. A treat of a man. Made the pain seem worthwhile.

As for the views from various parts of the journey, they are simply stunning - its no wonder they call this region the Italian Riviera. We ended our week in Liguria in Portofino - a quaint, small harbour made glorious by up-scale shops. classy restaurants and very nice atmosphere. Just a week later, Rod Stewart and his new bride Penny Lancaster celebrated their wedding (which was held just up the coast on his boat) at a select function at Brown's in Portofino.

From the Cinque Terra we went on to Umbria and stayed near Assisi in a very nice cottage overlooking a fantastic view. We used this is a base to tour around = Perugia was very nice.

Good to have a break. Nice to spend quality time with Lynne.

Missing in Action!

It is basically inexcusable. I have been negligent of this space and have caused anxiety to friends and colleagues by not blogging. Sorry. Many apologies. Grovel.

Several excuses. Bitten by a lama whilst swimming amongst sharks. Sent tone deaf by accidentally listening to a Barry Mannilow CD. Deranged by the developments in the life of Paris Hilton. Washed up on the shares of Iwo Jima following an attempt to make a movie entirely in Welsh. Caught trying on a tutu with a guy named Desmond. Bitten by a rabid politician worried about her fate in the government of Gordon Brown. All lame excuses. None of them true.

The fact is, was just too hectic and took on too many things. By the time the day was done, so was I. So no blog. As you may have guessed by now, things are quieter. So I have time and I am back.

I have written two short books since I last blogged. Not as such, but the equivalent of in reports, documents and submissions. I have been walking in Italy (the Italian Riviera and the Cinque Terra), cooking in Umbria, partying in Wales, teaming up with old friends in Warrington, visiting my mum and sister on the Yorkshire coast, resting in Umbria, facilitating in Oxford, palling it up in London, been to Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, spent time with colleagues in British Columbia, took a break in the hinterland near Toronto and written hundreds of emails.

More to the point. I am well, refreshed and raring to do some work, but not much. (Just a note of thanks to those who have been concerned about my health). Lynne is well too (except for a current bout of shingles, which is no fun).

So expect polemic, insght, humour and bullshit and other good stuff in this space from now on.

Alberta Ballet

Alberta Ballet performed two works last night. The most amazing was George Balanchine’s choreography of Tchaikovsky Serenade. The woman next to us wept and said “it was the most beautiful thing I have ever seen”. Another I spoke to at the intermission said that she had never been to a ballet before, but that this work would bring her back “it was stunning – my senses were awakened”. It is elegant, moving, visually simply remarkable. My admiration for our dancers (I am a member of the Board) was high before I saw this, but this is a most demanding piece – lots of point work. A terrific focus on timing and precision and a lot of high moves. The ending blows me away (I saw it twice this week).

The other work is a new work – a collaboration between our Artistic Director (Jean Grand Maitre) and Joni Mitchell. Nine songs with vivid dance, poignant movement and evocative and lyrical transitions. I though it marvelous.

One of those nights when you know it is the right thing to volunteer to be a Board member of an arts company – one that is doing the right thing.

Condi Rice

The US Secretary of State is, in my view, a very attractive woman. She is also well educated, an accomplished pianist and a skilled manipulator of public opinion. She will have a great career, once she leaves the White House.

But she is not a great Secretary of State. Why? First, she is deceitful. Throughout 2002 and early 2003, Rice repeatedly insisted that the Administration sought a peaceful solution to the Iraq conflict and that war was only a last resort. In October of 2002, she said, “We're going to seek a peaceful solution to this. We think that one is possible” [CBS, 10/20/02]. Then in November of 2002, she said, “We all want very much to see this resolved in a peaceful way” [Briefing, 11/21/02]. In March of 2003, she claimed “we are still in a diplomatic phase here” [ABC, 3/9/03]. However, according to Richard Haas, Bush’s director of policy planning at the State Department, the decision had already been made by July of 2002. When asked exactly when he learned war in Iraq was definite, Haas said, “The moment was the first week of July (2002), when I had a meeting with Condi. I raised this issue about were we really sure that we wanted to put Iraq front and center at this point, given the war on terrorism and other issues. And she said, essentially, that that decision's been made, don't waste your breath. And that was early July. So then when Powell had his famous dinner with the President, in early August, 2002 [in which Powell persuaded Bush to take the question to the U.N.] the agenda was not whether Iraq, but how” [New Yorker, 3/31/03].

On May 16th, 2002, Rice said “I don't think anybody could have predicted that these people would take an airplane and slam it into the World Trade Center, take another one and slam it into the Pentagon. [No one predicted] that they would try to use an airplane as a missile, a hijacked airplane as a missile,"[CBS News, 5/17/02]. But according to the bipartisan 9/11 commission report, “intelligence reports from December 1998 until the attacks said followers of bin Laden were planning to strike U.S. targets, hijack U.S. planes, and two individuals had successfully evaded checkpoints in a dry run at a New York airport,” [Reuters, 7/24/03]. More specifically, “White House officials acknowledged that U.S. intelligence officials informed President Bush weeks before the Sept. 11 attacks that bin Laden's terrorist network might try to hijack American planes.” [ABC News, 5/16/03].

Second, she is not imaginative. This is what David Plotz said in Slate magazine: “Rice is allowed to overshadow Bush because she is exotic: a black, female, conservative foreign policy expert. She stands out in Bush's army of white men, proves that his campaign is not just about good ol' boys. But her celebrity obscures how unexceptional she is. Her ideas, work, and style place her in the absolute mainstream of Republican thought. She is Brent Scowcroft in the body of a black woman.”

Take her stand on the middle east – what is it? Does anyone know. Here we are in the middle of a meltdown – Israel behaving like a colonial, apartheid power and the Palestinians are falling apart. Where is a creative response – not from Condi.

The fact that there is a close personal friendship between Bush and Rice is also of concern – while it’s good to “get on” with the boss, friendship should not limit the directness and honesty of analysis, especially in this position.

She is a weak Secretary of State who, when she chooses to be, is very sexy. Well, at least this makes a change.

Come Fly with Me = I Think Not..

The standard joke about Air Canada is this: “What’s the new Air Canada vision statement? Simple – “we’re not happy till you’re not happy!”. It would be funny if it were not true.

Air Canada went into bankruptcy protection for a variety of reasons. The key was poor management, more specifically an unwillingness to engage in a real competitive market and fundamentally re-engineer the business. While the airline industry is a complex and very capital intensive, Air Canada had built a strong reputation for service, quality and performance. It lost this by not nurturing its staff, not managing its costs and not engaging its customers in its future.

To get out of bankruptcy, it has done three things. First, forced its staff to reduce their incomes and, by doing so, reduced morale. Second, they have transferred resources from the company to investors – one estimate is that they will have transferred some $2 billion by the time current labour agreements expire in 2009. Second, they have reduced service levels and service quality in a variety of ways, including route changes such as the recent cancellation of their daily flights to India and by no longer serving economy meals as part of the fare on medium haul flights. While Air Canada has been voted North America’s best airline, this is nothing in particular to be proud of. Most North American airlines are poor – being the best of a bad lot is nothing much to be proud of. Third, they have restructured the company so that it can focus on managing assets rather than managing service – it is essentially a leasing, capacity management company that “happens” to fly cargo and people.

All of this will come home to roost in 2009. By this time, the airline will continue to be struggling to secure profitability and return for shareholders, union agreements will be in negotiation and competition from West Jet, Porter and others will have grown on some routes. In addition, there will be additional costs due to the various climate change initiatives various governments around the world will impose on airlines. It will get tougher, not easier, to run the airline.

What might change this picture? The key is competition. Canada needs to create stronger opportunities for others to enter and stay in this market and for others to see this market as an opportunity. This may include making it easier to increase levels of foreign ownership and foreign competition, creating incentives for a more competitive market and phasing in “climate change” costs rather than hitting the airlines hard upfront.

Second, there needs to be a commitment to rebuilding staff morale. The most reliable and strongest predictor of profitability in any service business is staff morale. A variety of studies show that an improvement of 5% in staff morale will increase profitability by 1% in less than three months. According to the staff I speak to, morale is at an all time low. This shows itself in a variety of ways, not least in terms of basic service. Some staff already are outstanding, but the rewards and recognition are not there for the majority. It shows.

Third – on some routes, become more like a European low cost airline than a behemoth. For example, I am flying from London to Pisa (Italy) in June for $150 return – including taxes. They do this as a reward for people who plan their travel in advance – the normal fare on this route is $470. On some flights on some days, you fly by just paying the taxes. In contrast, I am flying Edmonton to Lethbridge in March and the cost is $408. Both are three hour flights. I have heard all sorts of reasons as to why Air Canada and Jazz cannot use Ryanair as a model, but I don’t buy the argument. Ryanair posted record half-year profits of €329 ($500) million for the six months ending 30 September 2006. Over the same period passenger traffic grew by more than a fifth to 22.1m passengers and revenues rose by a third to €1.256 ($1.921) billion. Ryanair even made an unsuccessful bid to buy Aer Lingus. Though frequently voted the world’s “least favourite” airline, its continued route expansion and its modern fleet are all part of its attraction. Despite complaining, passenger volumes on this airline grow an average of 10% a year and have done so for a decade. Air Canada (excluding the regional Jazz airline) said its operating loss for the fourth quarter of its fiscal year was $5 million, an improvement from the $91 million it lost in the same quarter a year earlier.

Will Air Canada improve? Not until after the current leadership team leaves, which is likely before the next round of union negotiations. Will anyone care – the staff do. They care a lot about their airline, but know that it is pointless to challenge – no one is listening. Passengers care too – we pay for poor service, late arrivals, cancellations and poor morale. Eventually, investors will care when the airline again finds itself struggling to make ends meet.

The Next President of the United States

Barak Obama is running for President in the US. He wont win. Why? He’s too energetic, young, inexperienced and black. Despite the fact that Oprah will back him (with words and dollars), he wont be the nominee. What he will get is the VP nomination on the Edwards ticket – and this will be the ticket on the ballot. What about Hilary you ask. Good question. She will not make the ballot. Powerful, experienced a little (plus 2 for 1 deal with Bill – vote for me get 2 Presidents) and wealthy, she will not make it because she is female, cold and doesn’t have a policy platform.

I bet a friend the other day $100 cash (Canadian) that Giuliani will be the Republican nominee. McCain is so closely identified with the Iraq war push strategy that will have failed by the time the convention is held that he will not recover. He is also old. Other republican candidates are “ah who”..so my bet goes there. My friend was horrified – she is a US lawyer living here. She knows about Rudolph.

As to who will win, don’t write off the Republicans just because of Bush. He is a dim-wit. A real big honking dim-wit – makes Schwarzenegger look intelligent. But all families have them. When the religious right get going, there question will be who is the most evangelic Christian – its not a party thing, but the answer historically has been republican. With Giuliani – soft on abortion, soft on gays and gay union and a divorcee – it may open up a little, but old loyalties die hard. It will be close. My money is on Edwards to beat Giuliani.

Ian Richardson

Ian Richardson, consummate actor and face of the television political drama following his performance as Francis Urquhart is the TV series The House of Cards, has died. A classic Shakespearean actor, his career spanned four and a half decades. For me his key performance came in Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy – he played a laconic Bill Haydon in this Le Carre thriller. I cannot read this without seeing him do this part. But in House of Cards as Chief Whip and later as Prime Minister he excelled. Simply magnificent performances that caught the mood and spirit of the time and still resonate today. He played many parts – an excellent Bishop, a brilliant Sherlock Holmes. He also played Montgommery in Ike – a part he captured well. He will be sadly missed.