The idea that Sarah Palin could be a serious candidate for the Presidency of the United States in 2012 helps sell newspapers, but is beyond belief. She may become a candidate – an independent republican – but she will not be the official republican candidate and she is unlikely to win. She is the Ross Perrot of the 2012 election.
The US voters will not elect her President for five reasons. First, she is a quitter. She did not see out the last key employment contracts she has entered into, either as Mayor or as Governor.
Second, she is ignorant of world affairs and economics. Just read her Facebook entries and listen to her speak of economic issues and options.
Third, she has no credibility on the international stage. However popular the idea of a President focusing inwards on the economy may be, the reality is that improving the US economy requires a global effort and real strength in economic diplomacy – not something for which Sarah Palin has any credibility.
Fourth, she is a polarising figure. You either love her, find her amusing but dangerous, or hate her. This means that there will not be enough popular support for her to secure the votes needed to beat either the official republican candidate or a sitting US President.
Finally, she is a “foot in mouth” politician. If you wait long enough, she will destroy her own ideas through her own efforts. Just ask her about what she reads or what she understands about fiscal easing and she will put her foot in it. She will, of course, blame others – she is never to be accountable for her own actions – and look at the situation she herself created as if it is a meteor from another planet.
She will increase her profile throughout 2011, make more money, court the right people on the right and be seen frequently enough to fuel speculation. But a serious Presidential candidate? Never.