tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-105361452024-03-15T18:09:13.786-07:00The Murgatroyd BlogYou may reproduce materials with full acknowledgment to Stephen Murgatroyd PhD FBPsS FRSA / Troy Media,
You can read more about Stephen at www.stephenmurgatroyd.comStephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.comBlogger852125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-73747821276856090042020-12-01T08:32:00.002-07:002020-12-01T08:32:23.572-07:00The Incompetence of Jason Kenney<p></p><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Jason Kenney is incompetent. He is economically incompetent and now he is demonstrating incompetence in his management of a pandemic. He is arrogant and lacks an understanding of leadership.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">His economic strategy is naive, simple, and wrong. He throws money at large corporations in the expectation that they will use the extra cash to create jobs, Forty years of analysis of this strategy shows that what corporations do is: (a) pay dividends to shareholders; (b) increase executive compensation; (c) use the extra cash to invest in technology that will increase outputs with fewer people, and (d) relocate to lower-cost jurisdictions. Before the pandemic, the economic strategy cost some 50,000 jobs. Companies moved to the US and investment shrank. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Kenney "gave" profitable corporations a $4.5 billion tax break. He invested directly $1.5 billion in Keystone XL and, in addition, use taxpayer money to underwrite an additional $6 billion. It now looks certain that the pipelines will not be built but we will still end up paying for it.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Then there is the $1.5 billion that these fiscal conservatives, so concerned about controlling government spending, "lost" or at least cannot account for according to the Auditor General. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In a dramatic move - about the first thing he did - was to significantly reduce government revenue. He abolished the Alberta Carbon tax, which netted some $1.4 billion annually. The tax was soon replaced by a federal tax, as we all knew it would be. Kenney's claim that the court challenges he and his fellow Premier's were mounting would soon put a stop to this do not look to be going anywhere. We still pay but someone in Ottawa decides where the money goes.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Then there are the various boondoggle activities - the $30 million War Room which is about as useful as a bucket of wet snow. The seemingly endless and fruitless inquiry into foreign influences on our energy strategy. Endless Task Forces and Special Inquiries. $4 million to the NHL, a few million here and there.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">His advisors happily travel to the US and Europe to attract investors and spend our money on four-star hotels and expensive meals. But there is little to show for it.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">He has also made life more expensive for everyone. Higher car insurance, higher local taxes, higher costs of studying, higher loan costs. He is also making rural municipalities eat the unpaid taxes from the oil and gas companies who have not paid for some time. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">His education strategy is another sign of his incompetence. In his drive to "balance the books" (for no real reason that makes sense to any economist), he cuts K-12 budgets and higher education and yet seeks to reskill and upskill the Alberta workforce. As oil and gas decline (they are yet to return to 2014 levels of performance) and the energy transition accelerates, access to skills training and learning is being reduced and made more inaccessible to certain groups due to cost. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">And then there is his handling of the pandemic.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">At first, we did well. We had control of the situation (except in Seniors centres and homes) but now - well, we can see. Alberta and Quebec lead Canada in C-19 cases - Alberta will soon surpass Quebec in both cases per capita and our R number. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">He refuses to mandate mask-wearing in rural Alberta, despite the evidence that key rural locations have higher rates of infection than Edmonton and Calgary, showing that he cannot read a data-table or listen to expert advice.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">His deal with Restaurants Canada to keep restaurants open with limited seating, his deal with religious groups to permit worship with restricted but large numbers, his willingness to turn a blind eye to Ant-Maskers and Lock-Down protestors, and his unwillingness to accept advice from public health experts all point to a degree of incompetence. He was missing in action for a number of days - how he's back but doing little to stop the spread or flatten the curve.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">His defense for his actions - his peculiar understanding of the Charter of Human Rights - also shows that he is not competent to interpret the law.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">His tirades against the Government of Canada - now providing Alberta with its second most significant source of revenue and supporting hundreds of thousands of Albertans directly - also suggest incompetence. He claims that the transfer payment system and calculations are hurting Albertan's but did nothing about this twice when he and Stephen Harper introduced the current model. He fails to acknowledge the strong support Trudeau has provided for oil and gas - fixing the legally flawed processes introduced by Harper for environmental approvals and buying a pipeline (now under construction) to get Alberta oil to tidewater and supporting Alberta's innovation infrastructure. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">It is time for some leadership in Alberta. We will not get it from Jason Kenney.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-7105679552182009462020-08-17T11:28:00.001-07:002020-08-17T11:28:34.721-07:00Time for Teacher Leadership<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VDowUjfMJ0c/XzrMInSTu4I/AAAAAAAAU7U/zh7Aw7BToYcIZCk4koeBEB-sWgyiO1UIgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1240/4104.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="744" data-original-width="1240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VDowUjfMJ0c/XzrMInSTu4I/AAAAAAAAU7U/zh7Aw7BToYcIZCk4koeBEB-sWgyiO1UIgCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/4104.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">Based on reports from the annual assembly of The Alberta Teachers’ Association held August 13-14, it is apparent that the senior leadership believes that a policy resolution calling for a vote on non- confidence in the Minister of Education could be counter-productive to building an effective working relationship with the government. Rather than simply refusing to acknowledge the long-standing charade of the minister’s so-called consultation with the profession, ATA officials are still seeking to have “conversations” and to build a “relationship” with the Minister.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">This is the same Minister who did not consult with the ATA when the teachers’ pension funds were to be moved from a dedicated fund manager to AIMCo. The same Minister who rolled back curriculum change without consultation and dismissed the hard work of hundreds of teachers and professors of education who worked to build an innovative new approach to teaching and learning in this province. This is the same Minister whose government cut education budgets that led to school boards scrambling to maintain the positions of 20,000 employees – essential workers who were in the front-lines of supporting Alberta’s students as they faced the uncertainty of the pandemic. The same Minister who just announced a right wing ideologically driven team of advisors to oversee curriculum development, all without consultation with the ATA. Adriana LaGrange is not interested in a genuine and meaningful engagement with the teaching profession, any more than her government is committed to working with Alberta doctors.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">To be clear, the proposed vote of non-confidence in the minister was not about individuals or personalities. For the past two decades across Canada, policy analysts have lamented the fact key education decisions flow directly from the party operatives within premiers’ offices, often driven by short-term election cycles and ‘dog-whistle’ messaging on social media. We are familiar with the litany this current government has attempted to mobilize: class size really doesn’t matter, kids can’t do math, the environmental extremists are taking over our schools. Yet, despite enduring all of this, the ATA is banking on being able to build a strong collaborative relationship with the Minister – something they have not really had since Dave Hancock was Minister twelve years ago. Since that time there have been occasional polite meetings with ministers and the odd press joint conference – none of which could be considered meaningful partnerships. The results for Alberta teachers and students have not been good. Despite being consistently ranked in the top 3-5 jurisdictions in the world for the past 20 years, the UCP has chosen to diminish trust in Alberta’s public education system and marginalize the profession while attempting to activate its base with the red-meat sloganeering advancing parent choice and privatization – all policies that have proven to be abject failures elsewhere. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">Now the political leadership of the ATA faces an existential crisis. These emerged at the recent assembly: huge financial challenges and legacy issues such as the cost-overruns on an ill-conceived expansion to its building and growing concerns about the impacts of current programs in terms of actually addressing the material concerns of classroom teachers. Some teachers want more decisive action, some want a moderate approach and many others are disengaged and powerless - frustrated with no pay increases in the past five years and anxious about the prospect of wage roll-backs. Meanwhile, the ATA has leadership issues – a popular and obviously very competent president, yet the organization continues to flounder with no clear sense of long-term political direction or priorities.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">One of the most compelling quotes I fall back on in my strategic foresight consulting and teaching is Margaret Wheatley’s invocation, that “there is nothing more powerful than a community discovering what it cares about.” The same is true for organizations.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">If the recent annual assembly of the ATA is any indication, its members need decisive leadership now more than any other time in recent history to decide what it really cares about. Not only are teachers about to be asked to work in unsafe conditions, putting themselves, children and their communities at risk. More importantly in the long-term, they are being asked to go back in time in terms of what they teach and how they teach. Coupled with this are the unfounded assertions that Alberta students, already tested more than any others in the country, need more testing.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">Part of the concern of the political leadership of the provincial ATA is that a strike or refusal to work under high risk health and safety conditions would feed into the UCP agenda. The thinking here is that the UCP wants to break unions, break the public trust in unions and professions and to demonstrate that public services like education and health “don’t work” in order to advance their privatization agenda. It’s a risk of course – but the government’s ill-conceived return to school plans are a symptom of a much deeper problem. Individual teachers already have protection under Section 31 of Alberta’s Occupational Health and Safety Act that protects a worker’s right to refuse unsafe work. This law states that workers can refuse work if they believe that worksite conditions are dangerous or that the work constitutes a danger to the worker’s health and safety (or to the health and safety of another worker or person).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">There is no question that Adriana LaGrange’s back to school plan (just days away) is a threat to public health, as evidence from around the world makes clear. The real leadership opportunity is not to only to insist on reconsideration of the pandemic planning and to advise its members to refuse to work as is their legal right already. Instead the strategic leadership opportunity for the provincial leaders of the ATA is to work with local presidents and their school representatives to develop a sustained political action plan that stands up for what Alberta students deserve – a quality education for all. The risk is that short-term concessions on the return to school plan offered by this minister and the premier will serve only serve as a distraction from the long-standing issues facing the profession, many of which are shared across the public sector. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA">Stop trying to snuggle up to the UCP government. Stand up for public education. Confront them. It’s time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: start;"><span lang="EN-CA"> </span></p></div><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-69386040490430773442020-07-21T10:27:00.001-07:002020-07-21T10:27:23.422-07:00Is Alberta Becoming More Fascist?<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;">The term “fascist” brings to mind Nazi’s, but that was just one manifestation of this political ideology. Mussolini was a fascist and supported Nazi’s, but his version of fascism was different from Hitlers. Sir Oswald Mosley was a British fascist whose version of fascism was different from both Mussolini and Hitlers. So what is fascism?<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;">Fascism is a political ideology and form of government which has been seen to have several key components: (a) opposition to Marxism and socialism; (b) opposition to democracy and a preference for autocracy; (c) a commitment to conservative economic programs which favour the wealthy over the poor and a reduction in the rights of labour and the power of unions; (d) a strong sense of nationalism and a rejection of inter-nationalism; (e) mixture of church and state and the blurring of the separation of these two institutions, which church meaning Christian church; (f) education as being in the service of the state and the development of character; (g) scapegoating – blaming certain groups for the failures of the system; (h) populism coupled with an anti-intellectualism; (h) sexism and misogyny; (i) a disdain of human rights, unless they relate to the wealthy and privileged; and (j) fraudulent election practices to secure and retain power.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;">We can look at Alberta in the light of these ten features and see that:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>The current party in power is subject to investigation over its creation and election practices, with fraud being the key charge. The RCMP continue to investigate and fines have been levied.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>The party in power is clearly opposed to any form of socialism or liberalism – just listen to speeches and read statements about their view of “liberals” and “the NDP” and socialist regimes.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>There is a clear and explicit commitment to demonstrable failing conservative economic policies – trickle down economics (tax cuts), wage reductions for those on the lowest wages; denuding and reducing the public service; privatization of education and health.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Erosion of democracy has already occurred in Acts of the legislature which give hitherto exceptional powers to government Minsters to legislate and regulate without reference to the legislature.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>The anti-intellectualism is demonstrated by cuts made to university and college budgets and decisions made about the innovation eco-system in Alberta and the lack of attention to science in policies related to re-opening Alberta in the midst of a pandemic or to the re-opening of schools.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">6.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>The Alberta nationalism is evident in many statements made by the Premier about Alberta separatism, an Alberta pension, an Alberta police force and the need for Alberta to have a greater role in confederation. The hypocrisy of comments made by the Premier about federal transfer payments which he approved when a member of the federal cabinet is further evidence of the “new” Alberta nationalism he is courting.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">7.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>The curriculum review, changes to the way schools are funded and the focus from K-PhD on “job ready” skills tells us that education is an instrument of the state and is intended to serve the economy.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">8.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>The recent changes in labour laws coupled with the treatment of doctors and teachers shows us the disdain the UCP has for organized labour and its preference for “divide and rule” and rule by dictat. The inability to negotiate either contracts of employment in good faith or pension management are further examples of their conservative ideology.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">9.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Scapegoating began on day one of the UCP government with the establishment of the “war room” and the pointless pursuit of the enemies of oil and gas through an inquiry into the funding of opposition to the sector (based on the disproven conspiracy theories of a blogger).<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0cm 36pt; text-indent: -18pt;">10.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span> The introduction of the choice in education bill shows the beginning of the conflation of church and state, with its intention to enable the creation of more charter schools, many of which will be religious.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm;">So when some say that Alberta is headed down the fascist road they are not wrong. They are not suggesting that Kenney is behaving like Hitler, Mussolini or Sir Oswald Mosley. They are making the simple observation that, when we look at the ten key components of fascism, they are evident in the words and actions of our current Alberta government.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-57149268605825283542020-05-31T14:55:00.001-07:002020-05-31T14:55:44.070-07:00The End of Higher Education in Alberta as we Know It<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">As a result of deliberate and specific cuts made by the Government of Alberta, 3,500 jobs have already been cut from Alberta college and university sector in 2019 and 2020, with more to come. These job losses have also led to program closures – Media Studies and Professional Communication Diploma and Acting and Live Entertainment majors within the Bachelor of Applied Arts in Film, Theatre and Live Entertainment at Red Deer College; nursing and rehabilitation programs at the University of Alberta’s Augustana campus in Camrose; carpentry at Keyano just to name a few.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">But this is the beginning of the beginning, not the beginning of the end. The government has issued a call for proposals for the transformation of Alberta’s higher education system. The RFP was issued on March 6<sup>th </sup>2020 and submissions closed on April 6<sup>th</sup>. It calls for:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;">“… improved outcomes for learners and all Albertan’s, and shape a more affordable and accessible system that is reflective of Alberta’s future economic demands. Through this review and strategy, the Province is looking to respond to recommendations made in the MacKinnon Panel Report on Alberta’s Finances (specifically, Recommendations 7, 8, 9 and 20) as well as aligning with the Government of Alberta Strategic Plan and Fiscal Plan and the Advanced Education Business Plan 2020-2023.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;">Post-secondary education and training are critical to building an Alberta that is open for business and keeps pace with changing industry needs, with talent and a strong economy that is competitive on the world stage. Education and skill development feeds Alberta’s talent pipeline of entrepreneurs, educators, tradespeople, highly qualified personnel, innovators, job creators and community leaders.”<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;">The RFP then outlines the kinds of “transformations” it seeks to create:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 1in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><b>Transforming our workforce </b>– to ensure students have the skills and education to solve problems and be resilient in response to emerging demands and opportunities;<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 1in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><b>Transforming learner experience</b> – to create a system, including pathways to learning and skills development, that is more open, accessible and affordable throughout the lifetimes of Alberta’s diverse learners;<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 1in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><b>Transforming funding</b> – to strengthen predictability, sustainability and accountability, empowering institutions to become less reliant on unstable levels of public funding and improving outcomes-based funding;<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 1in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><b>Transforming government engagement </b>– with learners, industry, entrepreneurs and innovators and other key stakeholders, enabling co-creation of strategies and implementation plans going forward;<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 1in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><b>Transforming governance, collaboration, culture and capabilities</b> – in the Ministry and across Post-Secondary System leadership as a condition for success.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Put simply: what the Government is seeking is for colleges and universities to “produce” work-ready workers for the Alberta economy for less money than is currently the case and with less structure and complexity. It is also seeking to decrease public funding and increase student fees and private investment.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Even though the world changed after March 6<sup>th</sup>, the government is still pursuing the agenda is outlined in October 2019 and reaffirmed in the February 2020 budget and outlined in this RFP in March. For example, while Ontario has postponed the introduction of performance-based funding for higher education as a result<u> </u>of COVID-19, Alberta insists it will implement this scheme in full, even though it makes little sense in the face of a global recession. While other parts of the country are investing in colleges and universities as a way of kick-starting upskilling and reskilling, Alberta continues to cut and claw back funds. You may think the world has changed; Jason Kenney is even more determined to implement his “cunning plan”.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">There are a variety of speculations:<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Merging NAIT and SAIT into a single Alberta Polytechnic, as Saskatchewan did many years ago.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Merging all the Colleges into a single entity – The Colleges of Alberta – based on the recent merger of all of the New Zealand polytechnics (colleges) into a single entity – something that also happened in New South Wales.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Privatizing Athabasca University, which is already funded at less than 35% of its operating budget by Alberta.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Cancelling the transition of both Red Deer and Grande Prairie Colleges into universities, something that has been in the works for many years.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt 0.5in; text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Creating two Universities (North based around the UofA and South based around the UofC) so as to simplify governance – perhaps with a single governing body.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">But we don’t know.<o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">What is interesting is that there is almost no public debate and conversation about this. Such a major change being “plotted” yet no real consultation or engagement.<o:p></o:p></p><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-77826204556657051702020-05-20T06:22:00.001-07:002020-05-20T06:22:12.760-07:00Groundhog Day for the Pioneers of Online Learning<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
In 1993 I led a team that created the world’s first fully online MBA at Athabasca University. We launched in 1994 at the same time Jeff Bezos launched Amazon and it was hugely successful. What we did not do was try to replicate what professors did in classrooms and “move” teaching online. We chose the path of creating a community of inquiry for our learners focused on engaged and involved learning.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We were ahead of our time. We partnered with our students on design and development. We learned that content is less important than understanding and authentic learning – students have content and can find it, what they seek is understanding of what it means and how to apply meaning to the real world. We learned that learning from each other – what we now refer to as peer to peer learning – is as important as a presentation from faculty. We learned that working anytime, anywhere rather than having to log into a real-time class was seen as more desirable: we had no lectures or zoom-like activities.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We challenged our students to work in groups to solve cases, including cases from their own workplaces. We challenged our students to solve “live” challenges – using information supplied by corporations or non-profit organizations eager for the “free” consulting advice our students would provide. We used project-based learning to engage students in applying their knowledge, skills and understanding to problems in their place of work.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Now they benefit from virtual co-operatives powered by artificial intelligence and supported by quality teachers able to coach for improved performance. They co-create new knowledge through small teams challenged to solve components of wicked problems. They work in partnership with others on issues that matter: mental health in the workplace, food security, community safety, loneliness.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Around the world in the period since 1994 some remarkable innovations in online learning have occurred, which show themselves in high levels of student engagement and outstanding courses which push students to connect to communities around the world.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Yet here we are in 2020 hearing that faculty are struggling to “move their courses from the classroom online” and that students are experiencing everything from outstanding learning to simply being given a list of readings and dates for handing in assignments. As <a href="https://blog.edtechie.net/e-learning/its-forever-1999-for-online-learning-critics/" style="color: #954f72;">Professor Martin Weller from the Open University (UK) has observed,</a> it is like groundhog day for those of us who pioneered online learning. The concerns raised in 1994-1999 are being repeated again, as if no research and evaluation or innovations had occurred since.<o:p></o:p></div>
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What the current move to online shows us how little many faculty members know about how adults learn, about the nature of instructional design, about the power of collaboration and student engaged learning. It is exposing the myth that a Masters of PhD degree is a sound preparation for teaching in a college or university. It is exposing the consequences of not requiring all who teach in higher education to possess a teaching qualification, however minimal.<o:p></o:p></div>
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It is also exposing the soft underbelly of “academic freedom” which, for students, means the right of faculty to teach what they want to teach in the way they want to teach it on the platform they prefer, no matter where their students are and what access to technology they possess. The lack of pedagogical leadership aimed at ensuring that students in a program all use the same platform for learning, share an understanding of equitable access to learning resources, materials and activity and have a quality experience is noticeable.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Faculty especially struggle with re-imagining assessment – moving from mid-term and end of term examinations to more authentic and engaged forms of assessment based on knowledge, capabilities and competencies. Concerns over plagiarism and cheating – as if these were new concerns (the poet Milton was rusticated for cheating in an exam at Cambridge in 1626 as was the poet John Betjeman in 1928) – inhibit thinking about creative and challenging assessment, peer assessment and project-based evaluations.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>We will soon hear voices that “we tried online learning and it didn’t work”. One <a href="https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2020/05/13/online-learning-are-we-asking-the-right-questions/" style="color: #954f72;">article</a> compared student reaction to face-to-face lectures versus the same lectures streamed online and showed students prefer the real thing. Who wouldn’t. But streaming a lecture is about as far away from the effective design of online learning as one can imagine. At least, that is what we realized as a team in 1994.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-34425846667487118582020-04-23T07:12:00.003-07:002020-04-23T07:12:47.590-07:00Can Jason Kenney Become the Premier Alberta Now Needs?<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
As Premier Kenney surveys the province at the end of his first year as Premier, he must be wondering whether moving back to Alberta from Ottawa was a good idea.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Alberta now has a cancelled future: (a) COVID-19 has broken the economic strategy the UCP was pursing – reduce public spending and balance the budget on the back of a restored focus on oil and gas; (b) stimulate economic growth through lowering taxes for corporations; (c) privatize where they could, so as to permanently create markets for public goods and services and transfer public assets to private hands; (d) reward the already wealthy, ignore the poor – they will soon get the message.It is a classic neo-liberal strategy for a Petrostate.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Instead, we face: (a) a collapse in demand, price and interest in Alberta oil – investors are abandoning the sector; (b) $20 billion deficit and an even bigger debt than anyone imagined; (c) a complete lack of return on the $4.7 billion tax give away to profitable corporations – they spent the extra cash on share buy-backs, increased executive pay, investments in technology that lower labour costs, reductions in employment and, in some cases, leaving Alberta; (d) a loss of $4 billion by AIMCo on risky investments made worse by the observation that management underestimated the level of risk; (e) global oil price collapse; (f) the collapse of the tax base, both in terms of oil and gas but also in terms of taxes on employment; and (h) the prospect of 25-30% unemployment in Alberta for some time. On top of which, we also have COVID-19.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Not great. To make matters worse, his strategy of cancelling the Alberta tax on carbon and fighting the federal carbon tax (now imposed on Alberta) in the courts will backfire when the Supreme Court agrees with the general position of other courts and says that the Federal government is within its rights to protect the environment and levy a tax.<o:p></o:p></div>
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To make matters even worse, Kenney has angered doctors and nurses, education workers of all kinds (including many school trustees) and many others in the public sector. He oversaw (and told untruths about) the lay-off of 20,000 teaching assistants and others in education – the largest single layoff in Canadian labour history.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Even worse than worse, he has abused his role as leader of the majority party to abrogate the role of parliament (our legislature) by the passing of Bill 10 – giving him and his Ministerial colleagues the right to enact legislation (and retroactive legislation) without recourse to the house. When Trudeau suggested something similar (but more limited), the Federal conservatives stopped him on the grounds of abuse of process and the rights of parliament. No such voices, other than from the NDP and lawyers, have been heard here.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Kenney has done something right. He has taken the advice of health researchers and scientists in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Alberta, in comparison to many other jurisdictions, has done well – flattening the demands on the health care system, maintaining the lock-down, testing extensively and looking at fast action to manage outbreaks. Kenney has not done so well in his support for health care workers – we now have a great many rural communities (the UCP electoral base) without GP’s and some rural hospitals have lost their medical staff due to poor policy making with respect to doctor pay and conditions. He also compounded employment opportunities through mass layoffs of public sector workers, short-changing support for business and people and continuing not only to cut higher education budgets, but to claw back money they anticipate “may not be needed”.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The key challenge for Kenney is not the present time – that is a big challenge, but not the most critical. The key challenge is simple: how fast can he pivot to being a leader - the one Alberta needs right now?<o:p></o:p></div>
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A good government at this time would:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Introduce a completely new fiscal framework based on progressive taxation, especially taxing those with most money and using a sales tax to create real sustainable revenue.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Accept deficit and debt as key instruments of sound strategy (especially with very low interest rates). While government should always be efficient and seek to evaluate return on investment and social and economic impact, debts are fine.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Expand public spending, especially on future-focused investments in schools, colleges, universities, training and infrastructure. A particular focus should be on dramatic improvements in literacy and numeracy.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Strengthen health care and attract and retain high quality health care talent and invest especially in prevention and public health.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Work to diversify the economy – invest in future-focused bio-economy, technology, creative industries and design and new manufacturing systems.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: Symbol;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Leverage ATB, AIMCo and tax credits to stimulate investments in Alberta companies across all sectors which show potential for growth through sound leadership, business planning and marketing. Support a strong innovation eco-system.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -18pt;">Rekindle and re-energize the fight against poverty, homelessness and unemployment through real support for both for-profit and non-profit social enterprise.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -18pt;">Give support to municipal governments for future-focused investments in safe and compassionate communities.</span></li>
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Ironically, these are almost the exact opposite of the actions taken by Kenney in his first year of government. It is time to be humble, challenge Alberta to be a different place and invest in the a future-focused strategy to rebuild Alberta.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-32149507876561439362020-04-10T04:12:00.001-07:002020-04-10T04:12:25.790-07:00Alberta's Cancelled Future<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">The triple shock of the oil price collapse, the COVID-19 lockdown and the abandonment of democratic government by the UCP government in power in Alberta (Bill 10) all make clear that any sense of the future for Alberta is off the table. Alberta’s future is yet to be determined. What is clear is that the future some thought we had will not be that future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">That future will need to take account of a very different reality.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>A world-wide recession, with only China and India anticipating any economic growth in 2020 and modest return to growth in 2021 for some other countries.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Depressed markets for Canadian and Alberta goods, as the world shifts from a trading global economy to a more local and regional models of trade.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Disrupted supply chains which will take time to reconfigure as some key components of those supply chains will no longer operate.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>High levels of corporate debt – some too high for some corporations to service – linked to lowered levels of consumer demand, requiring new business models.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>High levels of unemployment, with Canadian and Alberta growth collapsing leading to 20-25% unemployment.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>A complete reconfiguration of some industries, especially hospitality and tourism, retail, restaurants, small and medium sized oil and gas producers and service businesses which account for 78% of the Canadian economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Continuing battles between oil producers (especially Saudi Arabia, Russia, US) with Alberta captured between the players unable to really influence either production levels, price or markets. This also will impact the willingness of investors to invest in heavy oil. There will be a real big shakeout here.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Significant levels of Alberta government debt – way beyond the $43.5 billion in net debt already known before COVID-19 and increasing daily as revenue streams (oil and gas royalties, tax revenues) collapse and bankruptcies grow. The deficit will balloon in Alberta, even though we were spending less than any other province on government programs relative to GDP (14.4% versus a cross Canada provincial average of 21.7%).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Significant disruptions to communities, with municipalities, school boards, community based organizations being pushed to engage and rethink what they do, how they do it and how they fund it.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>Growing concerns about the displacement of people, social unrest and the impact of inequality on the way individuals, families and communities respond to the post COVID-19 world.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Symbol;">·<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span>There are new relationships between Federal and provincial governments – interdependencies that matter. Those who favoured Wexit and separation should by now have realized the mutuality of these levels of government. Notice how quickly Alberta closed access to benefits for the laid-off and unemployed and pushed them instead towards Federal programs. Notice how quickly Alberta sought Federal help on a variety of issues.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">There is no real sign of COVID-19 going away as an issue or factor in all our activities anytime soon. Until a vaccine is found, tested, approved and is available and all are required to receive it, then working will be problematic. Face masks, now optional, will likely be compulsory and new measures will be in place to limit risk and exposure. The world will not return to the pre-COVID-19 state any time soon.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Options for Alberta<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">There are several challenges and opportunities Alberta has to respond to. In doing so we should adopt the mantra Peter Drucker was fond of using: “never let a good crisis go to waste”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">There is an opportunity for Alberta to seize the present time and change the future trajectory. Give up the 1970’s thinking that was driving the provincial strategy – low tax, oil and gas, competitiveness, governments as debt free – and build a new frame for understanding what Alberta can become.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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1.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Enabling wellbeing and health.<o:p></o:p></div>
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2.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Rebuilding communities and ensuring safe communities.<o:p></o:p></div>
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3.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Reskilling and upskilling the workforce.<o:p></o:p></div>
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4.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Stimulating the economy.<o:p></o:p></div>
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5.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Rebuilding the economy around emerging industries.<o:p></o:p></div>
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6.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Doing what we can for the small and medium oil and gas producers.<o:p></o:p></div>
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7.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Strengthening education and refocus apprenticeship.<o:p></o:p></div>
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8.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Restoring trust and accountability in our government.<o:p></o:p></div>
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9.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Rethinking provincial and municipal financing.<o:p></o:p></div>
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10.<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span>Invest in young people.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Enabling Well Being and Health<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Community and personal health and wellness will be a challenge for sometime. Rather than cutting health care and privatizing it, now is the time to ensure that we are ready for the second wave of COVID-19 and the pandemic after this one. We know more now about the capacity of our health system and it is time to strengthen these capacities. We also know more about the importance of public health investments – making vaccination mandatory, ensuring health check-ups in schools, tightening regulations for seniors care are all now measures that need to be taken.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";"><br />Until a proven vaccine is available for COVID-19, face-masks should be compulsory in public places and restrictions on large gatherings should be mandatory.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Health is not just about health care systems and hospitals, it is about each us. A renewed focus on teaching about health, wellbeing and diet needs to be a part of the school curriculum.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Rebuilding Communities<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Many communities demonstrated real and deep compassion, especially for the most vulnerable. But this was not universally the case. There will be real emerging issues around food security, safety in the community, crime and social justice.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Cities need a renewed focus on community, compassion and social justice. There is a need to drive a relentless focus on enabling social action through community organizations with the aim of ending poverty and homelessness and making all communities safe.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Reskilling and Upskilling the Workforce<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Unemployment will be high, especially in the service sector. Every citizen of Alberta between the ages of 16 and 65 needs the opportunity to upgrade their skills and develop their competencies and capabilities. A training allowance, similar tp that available in Singapore, a new model for apprenticeship based on competency assessment not time served, the expansion of short skills programs and micro-credentials should be urgent priorities for colleges, polytechnics and universities. Put back the $400 million taken out of the higher education system in Alberta, but demand significant changes to make more courses available more often to more people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Focus the system on future skills – the skills needed for the next economy and the skills needed to rebuild communities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Stimulating the Economy<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Invest in infrastructure projects that Alberta needs. Increase intended capital spending from $6 billion a year to $10 and support fast-tracking municipal spending on light rail transit and the transport infrastructure. Partner with the federal government on a 3 – 5 year plan to break the back of Alberta’s orphan wells problem. Make good on promises made to end homelessness by building affordable housing. Alberta should have no homeless persons by 2030 – all should be housed in small homes or residential facilities.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Rebuild The Economy Around Emerging Industries<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Our next economy is not one focused on oil and gas extraction. It is about technology innovation, green energy, bio-economy and agriculture. Stop provincial subsidies to oil and gas estimated at over $1.3 billion a year, restore tax credits for technology companies, focus new investments in Alberta’s innovation eco-system and leverage the potential of ATB and AIMCo not as oil and has “proper uppers” but as engines for the next economy. Create shareholder tax credits for investments in new Alberta companies or existing ones.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Doing What we Can for the Small and Medium Oil and Gas Producers<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">There is no such thing as the “energy industry”. There are firms of varying sizes providing a range of services and production for oil and gas. The large companies have assets which they can use to borrow against at a time when interest rates are the lowest they have been in two generations. The small and medium firms, however, are in trouble. Invest in regional networks to convert many of these operations to green energy. Help lubricate mergers and acquisitions so as to move small firms into co-operate or larger entities to streamline costs and improve productivity. Stop seeing the task of government to bank roll firms which the private sector does not want to invest in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Strengthening Education and Refocusing Apprenticeship<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Education is the key to a different future. As Nelson Mandela observed: “education is the most powerful weapon we can use to change the world”. Rather than cut school, college, polytechnic and university budgets, we should expand them but rationalize the system. Merge the polytechnics, create a single college system by merging all of the colleges, invest in our universities but stop them competing – demand collaboration and co-operation, especially in relation to research and development.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">For the next five years, lower the cost of tuition dramatically for key skills in demand. Rethink apprenticeship around e-portfolios of demonstrable competencies and remove the focus on time-served as the basis for journeyman status. Introduce degreed apprenticeships for advanced apprentice skills. Lead North America in re-imagining this work.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://draft.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a><b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Restoring trust and accountability in our government.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Citizens responded well to evidence based and science based decisions during COVID-19 lock-down. Learn from this. Learn that sharing the evidence on which decisions are being made, trusting science and evidence and those who work to ensure validity are all part of effective government. Restore democratic functioning and public accountability. Stop dismantling institutions and processes intended to hold government and its officers to account. Strengthen ethical and judicial oversight. Build a government driven by focused, evidence decision making and a commitment to social justice. Focus on trust-building. Stop the “smoke and mirrors” of politics as usual and develop the spirit of “politics as unusual” – truth telling, evidence sharing, option sharing, transparency and accountability should now be the norm.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Rethinking provincial and municipal financing.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Municipalities are the front-line in the work of community building and development. Yet their budgets are broken even if their spirit is not. They need assurance that agreements made in good faith will be honoured. All municipalities need additional powers to raise funds. Give them these powers but hold them accountable for outcomes.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Invest in young people.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">We need young people to want to live, work and play in Alberta. They need to see Alberta as place that values youth and provides for them. Strengthen education, cultural organizations and the community networks young people value. Provide support for their entrepreneurship and innovation. Enable their talents to be developed to the full and they will stay. Make apprenticeship or a college / university education affordable. See learning and innovation investments as the new Alberta advantage.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Funding the Future<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">All governments fund the future through revenues and debt. Alberta needs a sales tax that stimulates economic growth, replaces oil and gas royalties as revenue sources for government and creates an economic playing field that makes sense. Jack Mintz has suggested in the past (2013) that a 13% harmonized sales tax and a raising of personal allowances would be more than sufficient to enable the work Alberta needs to do – 8% PST and 5% GST with the rise in personal allowances being significant enough to offset some of the impact of raised taxes. Do it now. Alberta is ready.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Borrow what you need to borrow to enable the next economy and the next level of social justice to be achieved in Alberta. Interest rates are low and the province has a low deb to: GDP ratio. Limit such borrowing so that net debt is no more than 40% of Alberta’s GDP. Increase oil and gas royalties so that we can rebuild the Heritage Savings Fund – all royalties go to it and stay there until the fund reaches a target of $500 billion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Challenge ATB to become Alberta’s lender of choice for emerging industries and reduce their exposure to oil and gas. Do the same for AIM Co.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">This is also the time to undertake a major rethink of all government activity. Do not focus on savings, focus on rethinking and re-imagining what government can do – focus on outcome and impact based budgeting, not just comparative costs.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Pulling Alberta Together<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">We need to stop the nonsense talk of Wexit and separation, especially given the clear co-dependency of all in Canada on each other. Now is the time to reimagine Alberta. It’s the big reboot. Make the most of it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-29946974607802280232020-03-20T10:05:00.001-07:002020-03-20T10:05:17.471-07:00Let Us Not Bailout Airlines and Energy Companies - Focus on People<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "Avenir Book"; font-size: 12pt; margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt;">
The Premier of Alberta is concerned about the price of oil and gas since it affects both Albertan’s and the Government’s ability to fund operations. He is asking Ottawa to “bailout” oil and gas, despite: (a) significant subsidies which the industry receives from Ottawa – app. $3.3 billion a year; (b) subsidies from Alberta of app. $1.3 billion a year in royalty forgiveness; (c) having one the lowest royalty rates in the world; and (d) having given $4.7 billion in tax giveaway’s from the Alberta budget to profitable companies, including oil and gas.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In addition, oil companies were bailed out by the Federal government when it agreed to purchase a pipeline under construction so as to ensure Alberta oil could get to tidewater. The Government initially spent $4.5 billion buying the pipelines and are now on the hook for construction – app. another $5 billion or more. Oil and gas have also largely walked away from their legal obligation for well restoration once a well has reached its end-of-life or is abandoned. There are over 3,400 of these abandoned wells in Alberta which will cost some $30 billion or more to clean up and the available funds to do so are just $227 million.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In 2019 some of the larger oil and gas companies had a terrific year. CNLR, for example, achieved record production totaling 1,098,957 BOE/d, delivering 2% production growth over 2018 levels in a curtailed market environment. Net earnings were $5.416 billion. In 2020 the company planned to spend $2.4 billion on share buy-backs – a common theme in the industry. At the same time, CNLR hired fewer people to drive its performance as it is now, and has been for some time, an early adopter of key innovative technologies aimed at increasing production with fewer people.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We should not bail them out. They can use their asset base to borrow funds at the most competitive interest rates seen in a generation. We also should not bail out airlines or cruise ship companies for the same reason.<o:p></o:p></div>
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What we should do instead is pay citizens a guaranteed income for the next 12-18 months (all citizens) so that we can all cope with the challenges of mortgages, rents, food costs (which will rise significantly). Oil company executives and shareholders can sort themselves out.<o:p></o:p></div>
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As for the Government of Alberta, they should heed the suggestion: “never let a good crisis go to waste”. Introduce a sales tax now (exempting food and medicine) and scale it to replace oil and gas royalty revenues used for operations. In addition, rethink the royalty regime to extract more from oil and gas so as to strengthen the Heritage fund and strengthen the orphaned well funds. This may look counter-intuitive at a time when oil prices are so low, but it is a time to decide what is important for all Albertans not just a few.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The Alberta government should abandon its budget so shoddily rushed through the legislature and start to focus on creating the next Alberta around policies of equity, compassion, and service. Bold new thinking not old recycled thinking from Ayn Rand. Rather than focusing on the oil and gas economy, Alberta’s strategy (like that in New Zealand) should focus on the wellbeing of all of its citizens. It is time for a wellbeing budget.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-26864533460427848062020-02-20T11:43:00.000-07:002020-02-20T11:43:44.202-07:00An Open Letter to Premier Kenney, Premier of Alberta
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Dear Premier Kenney:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I acknowledge that, in your understanding, Alberta’s economy
is challenged and that action is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>needed
by government to do three things:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Stimulate economic growth through investment in
productive enterprises that create wealth.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Ensure that government expenditure both meets
social and health needs of citizens in effective and efficient ways.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->Secure Alberta’s infrastructure so that Alberta
is a great place to live, work and play.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>Your diagnosis of what the issues are,
however, seems to me to flawed. The McKinnon panel pointed to the need to do
two things: (a) to manage spending in such a way as to deliver outcomes better
aligned with the best in other jurisdictions at a lower unit cost than at present;
and (b) to increase revenues. You always give emphasis to the first of these,
but neglect the second completely. The McKinnon team said this:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;">
”steps need to be taken to
increase stable sources of revenue and decrease the reliance on the volatile
non-renewable resource revenues” (page 16)<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This statement is clear and explicit. Yet your own actions
have been to reduce Government revenues through lowering tax rates on
profitable corporations and cancelling the levy on CO2. In addition, you have
made the fiscal situation worse by unnecessary spending – for example, allocating $30 million a year for four years to the Canadian Energy Centre.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
You also appear to ignore the mounting evidence that tax
breaks for profitable corporations and reducing taxes on wealthy individuals –
so called “trickle down” economics – is generally seen as a failure. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is evidenced by a variety of research
studies and through the work of the IMF. There is no current evidence that this
strategy is working in Alberta. Indeed, the evidence seems to point in the
other direction.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
You also ignore the significant wage differences
between Alberta public <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><u>and</u></i>
private sector employees versus wages of those in similar positions in other
provinces. GDP per capita in Alberta, as you well know, is much higher than any other province – indeed, it is amongst the highest in the world.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Your relentless focus has and remains on the reduction of the
deficit within the lifetime of the present government. You seem to see deficits
as bad, no matter how they come about and ignore the role of government to
support the needs of its people, including through the use of debt instruments.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The 2019-2020 deficit looks to be around $8 billion – app. 2.4%
of GDP. The primary reason for this is that we have a growing population and
have a very low revenue level in comparison to other provinces. Our revenues
are just 13.9% of GDP in comparison to others whose numbers are higher – 19% in
BC, 22% in Manitoba and 18% in Ontario. Your argument is that our spending on government
services are far too high and need to be reduced – yet the evidence shows that
Alberta’s spending is the lowest in Canada at just 15.7% of GDP. You always
refer to government spending per capita as the key indicator - $12,915 which is
certainly higher than that in some other jurisdictions, but so too are wages in
Alberta in both the private and public sector.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We can always be more efficient and a focus on controlling spending
growth is not a bad thing, but cutting spending on health and education which
you are clearly doing (despite denials) is damaging services.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The more serious concern you continually express is with the
level of debt. Alberta’s debt. Current net debt is $36 billion – app. 10.2% of
GDP. This is amongst the lowest level of net debt for any jurisdiction anywhere
in the world. It is sustainable, if revenues for the government increase and
effective management of spending is maintained. Reducing it is not always
desirable – debt is a useful instrument which all organizations use. Some of
the most successful companies in the world get there by the smart use of debt
instruments. This you well know.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is worrying me is that your current strategy does not
seem to doing what you indicated it would do. 69,000 jobs have been lost since your
government took office and there are no compelling indicators of turnaround in
the economy. Indeed, some of the actions taken by government look to me to be
creating recessionary conditions – reducing public spending and head-count in
the public service, reducing services and increases the costs of public
services through privatization are all likely to worsen the situation.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In short, Alberta needs a better economic strategy that the
one you are pursuing. It also needs to focus on the revenue challenge – a sales
tax is the elegant solution. While I accept that effectiveness and efficiency
in public services is a key requirement of your government (as it should be for
all governments), what I do not see is coherence in a strategy for ensuring
that the very real needs of people for health, education, social services and
eldercare are to be met in the short and medium term.<o:p></o:p><o:p> </o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><br /></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Your Ministers will put the final touches to the Provincial
budget in the next few days. I must share with you that my concern is that,
given your current strategy is not working, your Ministers will conclude that
the strategy needs to be reinforced and doubled-down upon rather than changed.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first rule of holes is clear. When what you are doing
gets you deeper into the hole, stop doing what you are doing and change. It is
time for you to recognize that the bold, brash strategy you have been pursuing
is not working and to change. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With good wishes<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-15299886457258017312020-02-04T09:38:00.002-07:002020-02-04T09:38:11.159-07:00Kenney's Economic Non Sense
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<br />
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Jason Kenney has made an arbitrary decision that will impact
the lives of every Albertan. He wants a balanced budget by 2022. It will not
happen and he knows it.<o:p></o:p></div>
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But make no mistake: it is arbitrary.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Alberta’s net debt is one
of the lowest is the developed world at just 11.8%. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>($43.7 billion). It is rising – it rose by
over $7 billion since Kenney took over, but it is still modest by any standard –
Ontario is over 40% and Canada is 30.5%. Given that Alberta, as measured by GDP
per capita, is one the wealthiest places on the planet, context matters. Net debt
as a % of GDP is higher for every G7 than it is for Alberta (Japan, for
example, is 153% and the UK is 80.8%). <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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There are two primary reasons for the level of debt: we
spend more than we take in revenues; and (b) we do not seek the kind of revenue
we could, given the state of corporate and individual finances. We have both a
spending challenge – efficiency, effectiveness and spending growth – and a
revenue challenge.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kenney’s basic economic strategy is to stimulate the economy
to create economic growth and job growth. He is doing this by focusing significant
corporate tax give-aways ($4.7 billion) to already profitable firms and by
lowering both corporate taxes and eliminating the carbon tax (except for large
emitters). This is unlikely to work for a number of reasons: (a) a variety of
studies show that investment and hiring decisions are based on a larger range
of factors than the tax regime – education, health, infrastructure, innovation
eco-system and competitive environment are bigger factors; (b) recent evaluations
of trickle-down economics by both the IMF and a range of researchers who have
looked at the US Trump tax give away have concluded that they had no impact on
employment or investment. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While it is early
in the Kenney autocracy, job losses are growing in Alberta and have been since
Kenney became Premier. Alberta has higher levels of unemployment than other
higher taxed jurisdictions in Canada.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Having given away significant revenue opportunities and
increased the debt by $7 billion, Kenney has also foregone other options: (a) a
sales tax where each 1% of such a tax would yield $1.6 billion and 8% would
produce $12.8 billion in annual revenues – enough for Alberta’s needs when
added to existing revenues; and (b) raising oil and gas royalties – currently industry
keeps 96c of every $1 in revenue which is close to being the lowest rate of oil
and gas royalty rates anywhere in the world, we could increase this significantly
and still enable significant levels of profitability for most projects (some
projects would close, but they exist only because they are in effect subsidized).
Indeed, if we were to do both of these things which are in the public interest
then we would have a balanced budget by 2022.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But we need to look at another feature: unfunded
liabilities. One in particular is glaring – the costs of cleaning up the 3,406 orphaned
wells is currently estimated at over $30 billion while assets available for
this work are just $227 million. This, according to the Auditor General, is an
unfunded liability. It could in fact be much higher, especially when other oil
and gas clean-up problems are added into the pile – as much as $260 billion. Whether
we look at this optimistically or pessimistically, it cannot be pushed under
the carpet and action is needed.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So, what to do. Three suggestions: (a) stop the nonsense of
trying to balance the budget by 2022 and develop a responsible fiscal plan; (b)
manage expenditures while still meeting the needs of Albertan’s – debt is not a
bad thing; and (c) increase revenues through taxation and royalty changes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-27314428319786875732020-02-02T13:25:00.002-07:002020-02-02T13:25:32.300-07:00Standing Together for Our Schools - The Challenges for Public Education in Alberta
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<br />
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<br /></div>
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<b>Setting the Stage</b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Alberta has one of the best education systems in the world
and is the leading jurisdiction in Canada. The key reason for this: outstanding
teachers who partner with others in their communities to deliver quality,
authentic education every day to students, despite the growing complexities of
their classrooms and having a very outdated curriculum. Alberta has created and
sustained a cadre of highly professional and competent teachers who
collaborate, engage in professional learning and focus on meeting the needs of
those in front of them.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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It is surprising, therefore, that these teachers and this
education system is under attack. It is under attack from the government that
funds it and from ideologists who seek to impose identity politics into the
classroom.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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This is not unusual. This is also happening elsewhere in
Canada and around the world. It is a standard point of the neo-liberal agenda
that education, especially quality education, undermines the nature of identity
politics and the neo-liberal agenda since it equips citizens with the skills of
critical thinking, community engagement and evidence-based evaluation – all of which
are problematic for this agenda.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>What is School For?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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The key challenge we need to focus on is not the details of
the current government of Alberta agenda – standardized testing, cutting funds,
reducing the professional autonomy of teachers, privatizing education, all of
which are components of their strategy. But rather, we need to begin with
building a coalition of understanding of what education is for. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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The government’s view, captured nicely in their recent
stage-management of the curriculum review, is that education is an instrument
of the economy – it is about being “work-ready” and therefore is about the
knowledge and skills students need for the labour force. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This needs to be challenged.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Without doubt, the knowledge and skills needed for successful
entry into the labour force (the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">qualification</i>
component of the education system) is important. The difficulty comes in trying
to determine what the knowledge and skills actually are. A student beginning Grade
1 in September 2020 at the age of 5 will leave school in 2033 or later
(especially if they go onto to college, university or apprenticeship). Who
knows what skills an AI enabled world will require. Employees are already
making clear that the key skills they are seeking are design skills
(creativity, imagination, problem-finding and solving), social skills, critical
thinking and compassion. The second challenge with this thinking is to balance
technical skills (e.g. in science, technology, math, engineering – the so-called
STEM) skills with those of the arts and design. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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But education is about more than this. It is about enabling
a young person to develop and sustain “a passion for leading their own life and
leading it well”. This was at the heart of the Delors report for UNESCO in 1998
in which he highlighted the purpose of education in terms of learning to be,
learning to live together, learning to know and learning to do. Our government
seems only interested in our students when they are learning to do.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is worth noting here that some 1.5 million school students
experience mental health issues for which they are not receiving appropriate
supports and that some 6% of students are receiving professional treatment for
mental health (especially anxiety disorders) issues. Young people are amongst
the most likely to commit suicide in Canada – suicide being the second leading
cause of death between those aged between 10 and 24. The school has a role in
these numbers. Across the world some 46% of students identify their school as a
major source of anxiety and stress – in Canada this number is closer to 65%.
Students need really need to know who they are how to live their best life – it’s
a key purpose of such a central institution in the life of young people and the
community in which they live.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So far we have two purposes of school – qualification and
self-development. But there is a third, something our government is not too
keen on: enabling citizenship so as to support a true democracy and enable
social justice. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A democracy depends on the ability of its citizens to get
past tribal politics and identity politics and to be able to understand and
question ideas, policy, practices and behaviour on the basis of critical thinking,
evidence and an ability to anticipate consequences. For example, a successful
graduate of our school system should be able to explore these kinds of
questions: (a) is a tax give away to already profitable corporations really a
way to stimulate economic growth and create employment? ; (b) given that climate
change is happening, what policies would best help Alberta adjust to the
impacts it will have and mitigate negative consequences of climate change over
time?; (c) what can be done to ensure social justice for indigenous peoples?;
and (d) what steps need to be taken to ensure that women and girls are both
safe and able to secure their rightful place in all areas of Alberta’s civil society?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Some would say that these questions are what students
explore in social studies. But they each require cross-curricula knowledge and,
more significantly, an ability to engage in critical thinking, evaluate complex
data and understand the short, medium and long-term consequences of an action.
In short, they require what the OECD refers to as levels 4 or 5 literacy. Our
challenge is that many in our society, including graduates of our colleges and
universities operate at levels 1 and 2 of the OECD five point literacy scale. We
need to do better, but this is the work: helping our students to become engaged
citizens.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first challenge, then, is to champion a view of what
education is for – all the rest is relevant, but without this focus we will not
secure any kind of advancement.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>The Other Challenges<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The government of Alberta takes for granted that we all
agree on the instrumental purpose of education: to serve the capitalist economy.
We don’t. Indeed, few educators and certainly few policy makers have ever held
this view. Even the OECD, which is now captured by large corporations, takes a
broader view of the purpose of schooling in its view of Education 2030 and its learning
compass.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But the government of Alberta appear to have other plans
which will challenge the way in which we think about schools, their purpose and
the work that takes place within them. These include, but are not limited to:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Lower ingthe costs of education to bring it
into line with that in other jurisdictions in Canada</b>. The UCP say that we
spend more per capita than any other Province in Canada. This is not true. In 2015/16
we spent $13,340 per student – Saskatchewan spend much more at $15,314 and
Manitoba also spent more at $14,986. We also had the lowest rate of growth in
per capita spending between 2006-7 and 2015/16 of any jurisdiction (21.6%)
other than BC (20.2%). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If we then
account for inflation, our cost growth was by far the lowest in Canada (8.1%)
and was sitting around the average in the country at $13,430 (sitting 5<sup>th</sup>
in the Provincial “league” table). Indeed, we sit at the around the average of
BC, Ontario, Saskatchewan combined.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Increase class size.</b> This is already
happening and will continue. Class size, in the neo-liberal world, is not a
factor in learning outcomes. We know this will happen, since the government has
already stopped formally collecting the data that will demonstrate that it is. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Increase classroom complexity by removing
supports for students with special needs.</b> Educational Assistants, so vital
to the work of any school, as seen as a cost not as an essential service. Given
a choice between laying-off teachers and an EA, school boards will lay off the EA.
The consequence is that it makes nonsense of the whole idea of inclusion
(included into what?) and makes teaching an exceptionally challenging job. This
alone will increase teacher turnover, lead to more days lost to teacher illness
(mental wellbeing will be a growing challenge).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Remove Principals from the Alberta Teachers’ Association
(ATA) and make them chief executives of their school. </b>This is the official
policy of the UCP as a political party and fits with the governments
understanding of new public management. You cannot be both a manager with a
role of control and demanding performance and a member of the same union of
those whose compliance your require. The notion of professional autonomy and
professional engagement is alien.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Break the Alberta Teachers’ Association into
a union and remove their professional responsibilities to a new body more
directly in the control of Government.</b> The ATA is also ready struggling
financially and is finding it difficult to respond to the abundance of actions
the government are taking. They also feel excluded as an “education partner”.
This government has about as much interested in partnership as it has in space
travel or Giant Panda’s. They see the ATA as a union and encourages them to “get
over themselves” with all this talk of being a profession. They are questioning
the professional role, using a review of disciplinary decisions as wedge to get
at this issue.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Reduce or abolish school boards.</b> This has
happened in a number of Canadian Provinces and, given the focus on red-tape
reduction, choice and austerity it is inevitable that, as the government’s
strategy for growing the economy falters, this will occur. The more command and
control that can be exercised from the Ministry, the better the system will be
is the view – despite the established evidence that professional autonomy is a
driver of high performing systems.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Increasing standardized testing</b>. One of
the first actions of the Government was to require that all students in Grade 3
complete the student learning assessment (SLA) – it became compulsory. Now they
want to introduce “standardized formative assessment” (sic) for grades 1-6 (and
will no doubt extend this so that each grade has some sort of reported standardized
test each year). They also want to revisit the weighting of the Diploma exam. “If
you’re not keeping score, you are just practicing not playing” will be their
mantra. The fact that most of these kinds of tests are actually measuring
something else – social status and poverty – will be ignored.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">8.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Use the teaching standards, leadership
standards and superintendent standards as policing tools</b>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These standards were introduced to help focus
the profession on continuous improvement and professional development. But in
other jurisdictions they have, over time, become the basis for teacher and
leader evaluations and performance-based pay. When combined with test data (see
point 7 above).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">9.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Introduce the School Choice Act</b>. This
will be the backdoor to the voucher scheme which is now UCP policy. By allowing
funds to follow the child – whether these are home school, public schooled,
private schooled or Catholic schooled – the funds will be the same. This will further
reduce the funds available per capita, as more money will be used on tracking
and more home study will occur as some parents find that the vouchers for their
three or four children represent an attractive proposition. This will also lead
to more private providers.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">10.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Increase
the number of Charter Schools and Private Providers</b>. So as to meet the growing
demand from within the UCP “family” they will remove the cap on the number of private
and charter schools in Alberta, currently set at 15 (we have 13 at this time).
There will be an incentive to open such schools if the School Choice Act ensures
that the funding for a student is the same no matter where they receive their
education. There is also a suggestion that the constraint with respect to being
a not-for-profit corporation will be removed For profit schools will be on the
agenda.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These ten items have been on the conservative<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>radar for some time, especially during the
tenure of former Minster Jeff Johnson, who is still in the background lurking
among the UCP policy makers.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Some suggest that the really radical thing for the UCP government
to do would be to follow the English system – abolish School Boards, have each
school report directly to the Ministry with each of them being Charter Schools
(or Academies), subject to Ministerial review and inspection. A single collective
agreement, with school variations. However, given what is happening with industrial
action in other jurisdictions it is doubtful that any neo-liberal Canadian
Provincial government would go this far. This would also massively increase Government
spending <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and thus would be a difficult
sell.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The underlying idea of the UCP government for education, as
it is in health, is to so destabilize the system so as to make the case for
privatization. This is already happening in health care in Alberta and will
soon find its way into education. Budget 2020/21 and the School Choice Act will
send all of the signals needed. Evidence of poor performance – a nonsense given
our standing in the world – will be used to say that more needs to be done and
that competition is needed to bring innovation and performance improvement
despite the evidence that such developments lower performance and increase
costs.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>What’s To Be Done?<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Teachers, parents and students together with school trustees
need to form a coalition to promote these things:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->An understanding of the purpose of school as
being more that work-ready skills. This is essential – if we focus on the ten
actions the government is likely to take without this then we will be engaged
in the “divide and rule” game the government wants us all to play. Rally people
around the work of the profession in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A
Great School for All</i> – a comprehensive statement of intent about the future
of education. This was cocreated by teachers, students and some of the leading
educational thinkers in the world.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To champion the profession as a advocate for students
and community in partnership with the coalition – build the base of support for
the purpose of education, for the work that teachers do and for the engagement
of the school and community.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To ready the profession and its allies for
action to protect education – industrial action if need be. The profession is
not ready (many teachers have never known anything other than the kind of regime
they now experience) – the last serious action in Alberta was 2001. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To tell great stories about the success of our
activities – students do remarkable things all of the time and we need to shout
their success and the role that parents, teachers and the community had in that
success.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To not let the government play divide and rule.
The profession and the coalition needs to focus and stay united on why schools
and the profession matters. Trustees are not the enemy here – they have a legal
requirement to balance the books at the end of each fiscal year and are subject
to so much regulation and control by the Ministry and the Minister that their
scope for action is very limited. Yet, in my experience, trustees want to
support their schools, their students, their teachers and their community. Yes,
they are “employers” but their freedom as such as constrained.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">6.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To create posts to use on social media not just
to complain and challenge, but to celebrate and champion great work. The more
we can show just how good we are the better. For example, the recent curriculum
review (sic) mentioned that only Quebec was better at Math than Alberta. Yet it
wasn’t. Quebec only submitted completed PISA surveys from private schools – the
Ministry staff were on strike and did not submit any public school surveys. So
we are not comparing like with like. I would suggest Alberta is #1 in Canada in
Math.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">7.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To document the experience and impact of
government decisions – collect the evidence. The ATA has been doing this
(successfully) on class size and the impact this has. Keep at it. Especially
focus on complexity, inclusion and learning impacts as well as mental health of
students and teachers.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">8.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]-->To engage whole communities in understanding
what is at stake here – the future of Alberta.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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These are not easy things – teachers already work long days
and, contrary to what some believe, do not have the summer off – many engage in
professional learning and all have to prepare and do the things needed to make teaching
work when schools are back in session. But these eight things (and others) are
key to championing public education, maintaining our standing as a great education
system and to support the profession.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>Conclusion<o:p></o:p></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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These are challenging times. At such time there is an
opportunity to show just how capable we are of knowing what is best for our
community, our children and our schools. We need to act together and partner
with parents, students and trustees to champion one of the great education
systems in the world.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-35326393600377798912020-01-30T07:16:00.003-07:002020-02-04T09:37:47.830-07:00A Government of the Few for the Few - The Government of Alberta<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" name="_GoBack"></a>The UCP Government of Alberta is
pursuing three strategic intentions. The first is to balance the Provincial budget,
by which they mean only spend the “revenues” they secure through taxation,
royalties and other means. The second, linked to the first, is to better align
government spending by Department with the spending levels seen for those
services in other Provinces, no matter that Alberta’s economy is different and
that GDP per capita and taxation levels are different. The third is, as rapidly
as possible, privatize significant sections of the currently public services
offered to citizens.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In pursuing these strategic intentions, the government is happy
not to engage in any meaningful consultations and dialogue with those who may be
impacted by these strategies or with those who have policy alternatives. They
are also unwilling (some may say incapable) of looking at an evidence-base
which shows that these strategies are either likely to fail or based on a poor
(yet deliberate) misunderstanding of the situation Alberta faces. Finally, they
expect sections of the public service to engage in industrial action – work to rule
or strike – in response to their actions. Indeed, they are hoping for a full-on
confrontation since this will accelerate their move to privatization and, in
their view, garner support for union busting.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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These three strategies come directly from the neo-liberal
new public service playbook and are proven failures all over the world.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<h2>
Balancing the Budget</h2>
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So as to balance the budget any sensible government would do
two things: (a) maximize revenues; and (b) control spending. This government
dramatically reduced revenues through tax breaks and the removal of the carbon
tax and is not considering increasing revenues through either a sales tax or
increased royalties from natural resources licenses. The government is pursuing
“trickle down” economics – something even the IMF accepts does not work. When
we look at revenues, Alberta has by far the lowest government revenues of any
jurisdiction in Canada at just 13.6% of GDP (BC is at 18.9%, Ontario at 17.6%).
<o:p></o:p></div>
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Alberta’s net debt is currently $43.7 billion – an increase
of $7.09 billion over the previous year. Our net debt to GDP ratio is projected
to be 11.8% - by far the lowest in Canada by any calculation. Our net debt per
capita is also low at $8,379. As a comparator, Ontario’s net debt to GDP ratio is
40.1% and net debt per capita is $24,282. We do not really have a debt problem
when these numbers are compared either to other jurisdictions in Canada or to
competitor jurisdictions around the world. </div>
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The idea that we have to balance budgets is a ploy and a manufactured problem. We do need to manage spending and be efficient, but we also have to respond and meet social needs. Corporate largesse and tax breaks for the rich and already wealthy will not lead to job creation as employment numbers clearly suggest. What is needed is a revenue increase through a sales tax, an increase in oil and gas royalties and higher corporate taxes.</div>
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<h2>
Aligning Spending with That Seen in Other Provinces</h2>
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It is true that our spending on government
programs looks to be higher than other Provinces (except Newfoundland and
Labrador) at $12,915 per capita (BC spends $10,947) but then our wages for all
employees in Alberta are higher. The real number to look at is progam expenditure as a percentage of GDP and here we spend less than any other Province
(15.7%).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Spending needs to be reduced on non-core
functions (war rooms, overseas travel to “attract investors”, task forces and
advisory panels, Ministry of Red Tape Reduction for a government which is significantly increasing the red tape in health and education) with more money going to services which Albertan’s value –
health care, senior care, care for those with disabilities, education and
infrastructure. Alberta’s population is still growing and investments in
people, support for those in need and the payment of a decent wage do more to
stimulate and grow an economy than tax breaks for the already wealthy.<o:p></o:p></div>
<h2>
Privatization</h2>
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So as to reduce economic risk and ensure the effective
management of public expenditure, Alberta needs to halt all talk of privatization
in health, education and social services. Study after study shows that privatization
both increases costs, reduces efficiency and increases social risk. Further,
laying off public service personnel in favour of private providers who will
walk away if profits fall poses a real economic threat and risk to service quality.
Sweden rapidly privatized parts of its K-12 system in the name oif school
choice. Not only did quality fall (as measured by PISA and Sweden’s own testing
system), the private players “gamed” the system by manipulating and inflating
the performance of their schools. When profits fell, the private players walked
away, leaving the Government to pick up the pieces. Similar things have
happened in the US and the UK. In healthcare, privatization leads to loss of
cost control, increased wait times in the public system and poorer systemwide outcomes.
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<h2>
A Government of the Few for the Few</h2>
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<br /></div>
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In short, the Alberta government is intent on pursuing strategic
intentions which have been shown as failures elsewhere in the world all on the
basis of a misunderstanding of the challenges Alberta faces. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To make matters worse, the Government of Alberta
is systematically disengaging from public debate or real engagement with those
who disagree with their steamroller approach to public policy, as all who have tried
to have authentic policy conservations with Ministers and MLA’s will attest. We
don’t actually have “government by the people for the people”, we have a
government of selected interest steered by the few for the few.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-60798015977201351942019-10-29T14:50:00.001-07:002019-11-01T05:27:01.004-07:00A Precarious Future for Public Education in Alberta<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
So a picture is emerging of an ideologically driven
government determined to change the nature of public education. Here is what
they have decided to do so far (and it is less than a week since Alberta’s
Budget 2019):<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<ul>
<li>Not fund enrollment growth beyond 2019-20 and not add funds
to cover inflation over the course of this parliament – an 18% cut in real
terms.</li>
<li>Immediately cut funding for grades 1-3 by $1,300/student in
urban districts</li>
<li>Cut funding for teaching assistants – essential in complex
classrooms, such as those found in Alberta</li>
<li>Over the four year period, cut funding for public education
(which can no longer be called “public”) by 2.8% </li>
<li>Allocates $400 million to charter and private schools</li>
<li>Plans the introduction of a Schools Choice Bill in the
current sitting of the legislature</li>
<li>Cut post-secondary budgets in significant ways, reducing
funding by $600 million, with some institutions “hit” harder than others.</li>
<li>Removes the tuition freeze and permits universities and
colleges to charge up to 7% more each year – potentially a 28% rise in costs to
students.</li>
<li>Seeks to roll back teacher pay by between 2% and 5%</li>
<li>Seeks to transfer management and control of teacher pension
funds from an organization co-directed by teachers to one in which teachers
have no voice – from ATRF to AIMCo.</li>
<li>Abolishes the STEP program, which provided a chance for students
to work in the summer in companies and non-profit organizations and replaces it
with a $6 million/year Next Generation trades program intended to help 6,000
individuals.</li>
</ul>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;">None of these developments were negotiated or involved prior
consultation. For example, school boards and the Alberta Teachers’ Association
(ATA) were not consulted or advised of the cuts to grades 1-3 nor were the ATA
advised or consulted over the intention to make fundamental changes to the management
of their pension plan.</span></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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The rationale for these measures is to “balance the books”
and to bring Alberta in line with education spending in other jurisdictions.
Neither of these intentions is entirely honest. Alberta will not balance its
books any sooner because of these measures than it would have done under the
previous NDP government, which sought to invest in public education. We cannot
bring expenditures in line with other Provinces without understanding their
different revenue streams.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What is more, the budget makes assumptions about both
economic growth and the price of oil which are more than questionable. It is
more likely that these measures will lead to higher deficits and debt
(especially when coupled with tax giveaways to profitable businesses and the
reduction of revenues through the cancellation of the carbon levy). By making
the revenue situation worse, the Government makes the likelihood of “fiscal
balance” less likely rather than more likely.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The impact on public education will be felt in a variety of
ways – quality of the learning will go down as class sizes rise, teachers will
leave the profession faster than they do now and there will almost certainly be
labour unrest after the arbitration / pension decisions. The removal of support
for teaching assistants will worsen the already precarious position of students
with special needs.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This is part of the strategy, two to three years from now,
to justify a significant expansion of private education in response to “the obvious”
weaknesses of public schools – hence the language of “school choice”.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This will also be a precursor to the amalgamation or
abolition of school boards – something we have seen in other Provinces (and are
about to see in Quebec).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Teachers are already upset about class size and conditions
of practice, lack of a pay rise (they are just now learning of the ask for a 2%-5% roll back) and are furious about the attempt to shift management of their pensions
to AIMCo.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If you didn’t believe public education was vulnerable
before, you should now. It is under attack.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-50458366074537022262019-10-27T13:53:00.000-07:002019-10-29T10:21:17.170-07:00The In-Between Time - Between Old and New Forms of Capitalism<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
It is clear to a great many that late stage capitalism is
becoming unsustainable for four big reasons. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first is that it has led the creation of <b>environmental
unsustainability</b>. All scientists agree that climate change is happening and
that humans are a contributor to the changes in the patterns of weather and
that these changes are impacting species, soils, watersheds, oceans and air.
Changing what we do and how we do it, especially our use of fossil fuels, is a
key response to this challenge. Investments are quickly shifting from old forms
of energy to new and from old models of manufacturing to new. As the world
population rises to between 9.5 and 10 billion people, our use of natural
resources (especially water) will place continuing strain on the planet.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The second big reason is <b>debt</b>. Global debts from all
sources – governments, corporations and individuals – is now in excess of $250
trillion. In addition, global unfunded pension liabilities are growing very
quickly and, if unchecked, will add <a href="https://www.weforum.org/press/2017/05/global-pension-timebomb-funding-gap-set-to-dwarf-world-gdp/">$400
trillion to the global debt mountain by 2050</a> and this from just eight
countries (US, UK, Japan, Netherlands, Canada, Australia, China and India. In
the US alone, unfunded pension liabilities are already $28 trillion and will
rise to $137 trillion by 2050 if no action is taken. The world already has $17
trillion in negative equity bonds. The market cannot absorb the growing debt
and the world will periodically experience significant recessions as the
debt-cycles replace growth.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The third big reason is <b>inequality</b>, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-new-economics-data-inequality-and-politics">especially
income inequality</a>. The top 1% now own <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/21/millionaires-now-hold-nearly-half-of-the-worlds-wealth.html">44%
of the world’s wealth</a>, with the rich taking ever increasing share of wealth
created by workers. This has many significant impacts on the world’s economy –
not least of which is that wealth holders distort the political process. The
richest people in the US now pay less income tax than the middle class as a
result of their political lobbying. The neo-liberal adoption of “trickle-down”
economics, widely shown not to work at all (<a href="https://psmag.com/economics/trickle-down-economics-is-indeed-a-joke">even
by the IMF</a>), has been encouraged and enabled by those who benefit – the rich
and the super-rich.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The fourth big reason for late stage capitalism to be “in
trouble” is the emergence of <b>technology</b>. Technology has always disrupted
economies – machinery disrupted the agrarian economy, global supply chains
enabled by rapid transport systems disrupted national and regional economies,
the internet has disrupted a great many sectors of the economy. But the emerging
technologies such as AI, robots, 3D printing, stem-cell enabled bio-parts, augmented
and virtual reality will reduce the demand for certain kinds of labour, change
the relationship between labour and profitability and dramatically change the
skills required to enter the labour market. As Justin Trudeau said in his 2018 speech at Davos, referring to the impact of these emerging technologies on business
models, “the pace of change has never been this fast, yet will never be this
slow again”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In particular, some 30-40%
of all jobs will require employees to adapt to and work with technology in ways
not seen before. While some new jobs will be created, profit will no longer
lead to more employment. We already see this in the energy sector where profits
remain high, but employment is lowered because of the adoption of “smart”
technologies.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These four factors (along with several others, such as
demographics, changes in the structure of organizations, the growth of the gig
economy, the growth of the intangible economy) are all changing our world
quickly – too fast for a great many people. Indeed, a theme of a great deal of foresight
work is that we are living in “an in-between time” – a time between our current
way of working and a new way of working – a time between labour intensive
capitalism and capitalism that is intangible and requires less labour. It will
impact us all.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>Experience of Loss of The Future<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The future world will require more from those who work in
terms of creativity, curiosity and commitment. It will not be a place where a
great many of those with low levels of cognitive skills, low levels of literacy
and a disrespect for life-long learning will do well. Indeed, much of the anger
and anxiety about our society which can be seen in political discourse and
social transactions relates to the inner anxiety about how “we fit” into the
new world that is emerging.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We can usefully look at <a href="https://www.psycom.net/depression.central.grief.html">Kubler-Ross’s work</a>
on how people cope with death and dying as a way of understanding what is happening
now. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As people lose the sense that they understand how the world
works and what the near and medium term future will look like for them, their
thinking and experience shifts through a number of stages:</div>
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<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Shock</b> that their understanding of the
world and how it works (especially for them) no longer holds true.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Denial</b> that the world they know and
understand will not return as it was.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Anger and Frustration</b> with all, most especially
those who they see as representing the different future – the one they are
resisting in the hope that the “old and familiar” future will return.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: "symbol";">·</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: xx-small;"> . </span></span></span><b>Bargaining</b> about how they can “live” in
the new world while retaining some semblance of the old.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Depression</b> when they release that the
bargaining they were engaged in will not lead to what it was they had hoped
for. This often leads to a return to anger and frustration and a new attempt at
bargaining – this can be a repeated cycle for some time.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Decision</b> to accept that the world has
changed and that they need to move on.</li>
<li><span style="font-family: "symbol"; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">·<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Integration</b> of the new understanding of
the world into the way in which they live their lives.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
It should be clear that not everyone who experiences the
sense of loss of the future as they had understood it will successfully move
through these stages. Many get stuck at anger and frustration or are locked
into the anger-bargaining-depression cycle and repeat it many times. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One consequence of this experience are challenges around
mental health and wellness. It is no surprise that, in all sectors of society
and at all ages, we see a mental health pandemic. Whether it is rates of
anxiety, depression, addiction or suicide – the numbers are rising as quickly
as society and our economy is changing.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>The In Between Time<o:p></o:p></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We can see what is happening as an in-between time – a time
between the old and a the new economy, between an old form of capitalism and a
new form of capitalism, a time between a stable planet and an unstable one. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
For individuals and families, the in-between time is full of
uncertainties, risk and cost. Trying to make decisions now which will produce
outcomes 2-3 years from now produces a great deal of anxiety. Is a college or
university education worth the growing cost and debt and if it is, what should
I study that will give me some surety about future work? Is this a good time to
marry and, if it is, where is the best place for us to live and work? What about
having children – given the state of the planet and the uncertainty about the
future, what world will be leaving them? Shall I try for this job – if so, how
long might it last?<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
To make this very real, look at the decision someone made
four years ago to study petroleum engineering in an oil rich place like Alberta.
Four years ago, companies were hit by a major downturn with a great many
lay-offs. While the big companies that account for 80% of production continue
to be highly profitable, they leveraged the downturn to focus on innovative technologies
that enable them to produce a growing volume of oil and gas with much less
labour. Now the sector in Alberta employs fewer than 20,000 people and is no
longer an engine of employment, though continues to have undue influence over our
economy and politics. That petroleum engineer is now most likely to find work
in some other part of the world or in another sector that can use his technical
and thinking skills – a sector not connected with petroleum.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The in-between time is messy, painful and difficult and, for
some, can last a long time. It is a necessary phrase in a transitional economy.
We all need to understand that this is happening and, more importantly, we
cannot go back to the past since the future is pulling whether we like it or
not.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-56706183636882578732019-10-26T05:46:00.001-07:002019-10-26T05:46:08.222-07:00The Changing Energy Landscape
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UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footer"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of figures"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="footnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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Around the world, energy economies are changing. Companies
like Honda and Daimler have announced that they are no longer going to produce cars,
SUVs and trucks which use gasoline or diesel as a fuel – in Honda’s case, they
will stop making gas driven vehicles in 2022 – just 26 months from now. Uber
and Volkswagen have teamed up to build a massive fleet of self-driving cars,
all of them electric, so that the world can shift away from transport systems
which add to CO2 emissions.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Countries are also on board, banning the sale of fossil fuel
vehicles. Norway was the first, with sales of fossil fuel cars and trucks from
2025. India, Germany, Netherlands will do so from 2030, France and the UK
(Scotland will do so in 2032) in 2040, Ireland in 2045 and the US State of California
will also join the 2040 crowd. Diesel cars and trucks are being phased out
faster – Athens, Madrid, Paris, Mexico City, Rome, Brussels will end sales of
these vehicles by 2030 and sales, as a result, are already in rapid decline.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Banks and other investors have agreed not to invest in
fossil fuels and to switch investments in fossil fuels to other sectors. A
renewed commitment was made valued at $11 trillion by over 1,000 fund managers <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/09/10/business/investors-11-trillion-assets-pledge-shift-fossil-fuels-report/">meeting
in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cape Town in September</a>. This is
around 16% of the total equity market, and the campaign to be Paris-compliant
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investors to back off fossil fuels, it is the return on investment. A recent
study from the <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/07/190711114846.htm">University
of Leeds</a> shows that ROI from fossil fuels and green energy are now about equal
when a medium term view of ROI is taken – in part due to the higher costs of
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sixteen year window is at the heart of this calculation.<o:p></o:p></div>
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While demand for oil and gas remains strong and will do so
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trillion to be invested in green energy projects – five times more than
investment in fossil fuels. There will be a growing set of micro-energy
producers – companies, communities – using solar, thermal and windpower to
generate energy on local scale and selling energy to regional and national
grids. We can also expect widespread electrification of transport systems –
buses, cars, trains. While natural gas will be a key source of energy fueling
the new transport systems – coal will be almost completely gone in the
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So the energy game is changing. We need to play our part in
shaping this future, otherwise we will all play catch-up.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-71623568602714827422019-10-24T16:33:00.000-07:002019-10-24T16:33:26.207-07:00Anger, Wexit and Frustration
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">At the heart of Alberta’s Wexiteers is
anger. Anger and frustration.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">They are angry that, even though they pay
very little tax (of any kind), they feel like they pay a lot. They also see
their municipal taxes rise as needed infrastructure gets built after many years
of neglect and decay. They are frustrated that the Provincial and Federal
government spend money on things they don’t like and do not spend money on the
things they want them too – like better care for seniors, more day care for
children and pharmacare.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">They are angry that a key sector of the
Alberta economy – oil and gas – is in recession and has been for some time. Oil
prices are stuck below the costs of production for new oil sands projects and
technology innovation and new ownership of oil sands is focused on massively
improving productivity with less labour – a strategy that is working. It is
also focused on getting Alberta’s oil to market through rail (using bitumen
pucks) and pipelines, now being built but only after years of delay. They are
not convinced that the Federal Government (of any kind) treats this industry
seriously or, as importantly, with respect. This despite the fact that, so as
to ensure that the Trans Mountain Pipeline got built, the Federal Government
bought it for $4.5 billion, redid the public consultation and approved it. It
is now under construction, despite ongoing court challenges. The expanded
pipeline will increase oil to market by this means from 300,000 barrels a day
to 890,000.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">They are angry that climate change –
something we know to be real – is derailing the rapid growth and exploitation
of oil and gas and they blame, without any real evidence, foreign influence and
left wing environmental activists for this. This despite the fact that the oil
and gas industry asked for a carbon tax (well, the big players did – the small
ones who run CAPP campaigned against it) and pushed both the Conservative and
NDP Provincial governments over emissions regulations and charges (which are
still in place at $30/barrel). This despite the fact that oil production
continues to grow and that revenues are increasing – they are just not hiring
as many people.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">They do not like to acknowledge that Canada
is, on average, experiencing warming at twice the rate of the rest of the
world, and northern Canada is heating up at almost three times the global average. Nor
do they acknowledge that the fastest growing cause of CO2 emissions (and other
greenhouse gasses) are the Alberta oil sands.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">They point to statements made by the Prime
Minister about climate change and fossil fuels as evidence of his disdain for
oil and gas. He has promised to phase out subsidies for the fossil fuel
industry (alongside <b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">all</i></b> G20
countries), work to develop a NAFTA style clean energy agreement, and has
endowed the Low Carbon energy trust with $2 billion to help stimulate the
growth of this sector (some of these funds have been allocated to Alberta oil
sands companies). He has introduced a Federal Carbon Levy – something agreed to
at the time by all Provinces but has since been opposed by some. This tax will
apply to Alberta starting in January because an angry Saskatchewan person who
is now Premier of Alberta repealed our own carbon levy and instead wants the
funds collected to be controlled by Ottawa.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">They are angry that Alberta looks to be
treated differently than other Provinces, especially Quebec and BC, both of
which oppose new or expanded pipelines. In a deliberate, and some may think
malicious, misunderstanding of equalization Albertan’s think they pay money
into a fund and don’t get any back, while their opponents (like Quebec) does.
They know that the money for equalization is sitting in the Federal governments
general revenues and is allocated according to a formula designed and developed
by Stephen Harper and Jason Kenney. It is not Alberta’s money. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just as Alberta doesn’t pay a portion of
defence costs, we don’t pay a portion of equalization – the Federal government’s
budgets don’t work that way and Albertan’s know it.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">Some – a small number – of Albertan’s
glorify a fantasy of Western separation, ignoring the fact that large parts of
Alberta are owned by the Federal Government and First Nations, that we would “inherit”
a portion of the Federal debt, that we have no access to global markets (except
the US) without having a trade with Canada and we are not viable as a nation
state, whatever rye you drink. A new Wexit nation would begin with debts that
make current debt levels of Western Canadian governments look like chicken
feed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">As the Premier of Manitoba said, Provinces
are married to Canada and, as in all marriages, one has to work at the
relationship. Canada is not perfect, but it is worth fighting for and working for.
Rather than being angry and threatening, Albertan’s should develop clear,
specific proposals for all of our future within confederation. Let the anger
out and replace it with sense-making and imaginative ideas.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN-US">If you want to know what Wexit would actually
look like, look over the pond at Brexit. It is not exactly a picnic.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-79426779034848030992019-10-23T09:57:00.004-07:002019-10-23T09:57:52.225-07:00Alberta’s Psychological Dystopia
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<!--StartFragment-->
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">One feature of psychological
illness is this: “if only everyone else were different, I could be the person I
have always wanted to be”. When I was in practice as psychologist (many years
ago), I heard this implicitly all the time. The situation these people were in
was hopeless, but not serious – we could change their situation by changing how
people thought about themselves and others. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Many in Alberta have
this illness, except its focused on our economy and politics.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">The fantasy is this:
oil and gas could be “back” as the engine of the Alberta economy at the level
it was when oil was over $100 a barrel and jobs were plentiful and jobs would
be back at the level they once were. We have lost over 100,000 jobs (with more
losses to come) and oil is trading at an average of <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>$43.10 throughout August 2019.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">What is getting in
the way, the story goes, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is the lack of
pipeline capacity, environmental and climate change preoccupations, immigration,
and transfer payments intended to ensure all Canadians share in the wealth of
the nation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Oil and Gas<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">The “blame” for the
fact that oil and gas sector is experiencing a severe recession and that the
key pipelines are not yet built is placed on the Alberta NDP government and the
Federal Liberal government plus climate change activists (allegedly “funded” by
foreign money). Also to blame are Quebec (recipients of significant transfer
payments) and BC who oppose new pipelines and foreign funded organizations
whose preoccupation is ending the use of fossil fuels. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also involved is Saudi Arabian oil, which
Canada has been importing since the 1970’s – oil that is cheaper than Alberta
oil.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">The non “sense” here
is complicated but important.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Oil prices reflect
global market conditions and the fact that most oil producers are seen to
produce oil that can easily get to market. Alberta’s major oil is either mined
(bitumen mining) or produced through a steam assisted gravity process. While a
lot of work has gone into “greening” this oil sands product (CO2 intensity is
down as are the volumes of water needed to produce it), there are still a lot
of environmental issues associated with its production. These are being
systematically worked on, but they are still issues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">As companies like
TOTAL, Shell and BP exit the oil sands sector to pursue a greener energy strategy
and as investors look at the future and switch their investments to green
energy and less problematic oil, then the oil sands have experienced a
reduction in foreign funded direct investment. Indeed, we have gone from an oil
sands sector dominated by foreign ownership to one which stronger Canadian
ownership, funded by foreign backed debt.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">What is important to
understand here is that big players like Conoco-Phillips and others exited
Alberta not because of the NDP or Liberal governments – having worked with them
they take a 50 – 75 year view of the markets and return on capital – but
because their strategic priorities shifted. They saw shifts in global market
conditions and decided that return on capital here was less attractive than
elsewhere. Welcome to the real world of investment and corporate decision
making. They are not loyal to place, but to shareholders.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Also, the investment
landscape changed. A significant group of investors have decided, following the
Paris Climate Change Accord, not to invest in fossil fuels new sites and reduce
their investment in fossil fuel old sites. Some $6 trillion in fossil fuel
investment has been “switched” over the last five years with major investors
de-carbonizing their portfolios. What these investors are also looking at are
models which suggests that demand for fossil fuels could drop by as much as 40%
by 2050 as electric cars and other technologies become more widely affordable
and available. Many jurisdictions are banning the sale of fossil-fuel cars by
2030.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">What oil and gas
companies are doing is investing in smart technologies which dramatically
improve productivity with less labour. In Texas, for example, 231,500 jobs were
lost when the 2008-9 recession hit and oil prices collapsed, profits are back
but only 50,000 people were hired. This is what we will see in Alberta –
increased productivity and profitability with fewer people employed. The
forecast is that 17,000 direct jobs will return in Alberta but production will
rise by 800,000 b/day. Jobless capitalism.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Climate Change<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Green energy – wind,
solar, nuclear, hydrogen – is gaining ground. More people work in this sector
than in oil and gas (conventional and unconventional) in Canada and investments
in this sector globally is growing. Wind energy is now the lowest cost source
of new electricity in Canada and capacity is growing quickly. Even in Alberta, wind
energy will account for 750 MGW by 2030 and investments in green energy in
Alberta are also substantial.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Energy companies –
the large players which employ the most people – are pushing for climate change
policies and environmental regulations so as to create the social license to
sell which they need for international markets. Oil companies were key to
Alberta’s carbon levy, now scrapped by the UCP government and were key to the Federal
Governments carbon tax strategy. Economists see carbon levies as a significant ingredient
in public policies aiming to reduce CO2 emissions. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Alberta emissions regulations still apply
($30 barrel), but for how long.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Part of the concern
is that the Trans Mountain Pipeline, now owned by the Federal Government
(because the private sector was about to walk away from building it) will never
get built because the Liberals, it is said, will back away so as to curry
favour with the NDP. First, the Conservative party had years to build this
pipeline and didn’t. The Trudeau government approved it TWICE, but had the
first decision upturned by the courts due to flawed public consultations which
took place in part under the Harper Government (and under Harper Government regulations
and law) and in part under Trudeau. Trudeau improved the legislation, re did
the consultation and approved the pipeline a second time and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it is now being built. Any challenge to this
would secure a majority in the House of Commons (PC’s + Trudeau Liberals).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Bill C-48<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Another concern is
that the Trudeau Government passed legislation relating to tanker activity off
the BC coast (Bill C-48). The legislation stops tankers carrying more than 12,500
metric tonnes of crude or persistent oil products from stopping, loading or
unloading north of Port Hardy. It does permit tanker loading in the Port of
Vancouver but not at Port Rupert or Kitimat. Despite claims that this will spook
foreign investors and profoundly impact oil tanker movement, the ban puts into
law a voluntary agreement which has been in place since 1971. This is worth
repeating. There has been NO loading, unloading or stopping of oil tankers in
this area for over forty years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">(This law also
prohibits the offshore exploration for oil and gas in this region – something that
has been in place since 1972).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Bill C-69<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Another
controversial bill introduced by Trudeau is the “pipeline killer” bill – C-69.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Actually called the
Impact Assessment Act (it is now law), the legislation sought to clean up the
process for environmental impact assessment of new infrastcruture projects,
which include pipelines. The argument is that it will be tougher to secure
approval for new projects and therefore investors will not even bother to put
their money on the table. A part of the reason for this is the requirement for
impact assessments to now include the likely impact on climate as well as the
water table, soils and air.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">This is another piece
of nonsense. The Act puts back into force many of the regulations and legal
requirements that were in place in 2012 which Stephen Harper repealed. The Act
also requires enhanced consultation – a way of reducing the amount of
litigation about the consultation process seen as a result of Harper’s changes
to the law. Lawyers suggest that the changes introduced in C-69 are minor and
represent a return to “normal” for this kind of legislation around the world.
Many specialists also think C-69 will increase certainty rather than uncertainty
– a great many investments were made in oil and gas pre the 2012 changes made
by Harper when the legislation in place closely resembled C-69.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Transfer Payments<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Then there is the
issue of equalization payments – moneys paid from the Federal Governments
general revenues to ensure all Canadians have relatively equal access to
services and support and a decent standard of living. The argument of the Wexiteers
is that Alberta subsidizes provinces like Quebec who then oppose the economic
requests of Alberta – e.g. a pipeline. In 2019-20 Quebec will receive $13
billion in equalization payments, some $11 billion of which “comes” (sic) from
Alberta. The increase in Quebec’s payments came as a direct result of Stephen
Harper’s decision to change the basis on which these payments are made (Jason
Kenney was a cabinet Minister who signed off in these changes, which he now
seems to oppose). Kenney has promised a referendum on equalization for Alberta
in 2021 – largely a piece of theatre, since the idea that seven of ten
provinces would agree to remove the equalization from the constitution are
zero.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">This issue is complicated.
There are three transfer programs – health, social transfer and equalization.
The first two are per capita funds - $X/person. 75% of all transfer funds are
based on population. Only the equilization payments are based on equity estimates
– what would it take to ensure equity of service for all Canadians. <span style="background: white; color: #191919;">The formula itself asks what a
province’s revenue would be if all its tax rates equalled the national average.
Alberta would raise $12,327 per person, more than any other province, followed
by B.C. at $11,052. Quebec is far behind, at $8,123, and Prince Edward Island
lags even further, at $6,648, according to Finance Canada calculations.
Equalization tops up provinces below the national average, which is why a
province as populous as Quebec receives payments.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #191919; font-family: "Avenir Book";">Albertan’s pay a lot more into the Federal government because
they earn more. Per capita GDP in Alberta is around $77,500 as compared to a
national average of $58,000 – Alberta is amongst the richest places on the
planet. We also spend more per person, so the Federal government collects more
sales taxes ($400 per person) than anywhere else and collects more income taxes
($2,500 more). It is not because we live in Alberta – we earn more, are worth
more and spend more.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="background: white; color: #191919; font-family: "Avenir Book";">Immigration<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #191919; font-family: "Avenir Book";">Immigrants strengthen an economy by both working in it and creating
enterprises. Indeed, it is the case that a great deal of Canada’s GDP growth is
as a direct result of immigration. Yet there are many in Alberta who see
immigrants as “job takers” (where do they think we all come from – those who
are not indigenous people’s)? This is a component of some of the more extreme “Alberta
nationalists” who also oppose same sex marriage, gender equality, abortion and
women’s rights and transgender rights.</span><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Alberta’s New
Policy Group – The Wexiteers<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">It seems Alberta has
a growing group of people that sees the past as so wonderful that we must
return to it as quickly as possible. These individuals – those behind the
Western Canada separation movement (Wexit) – are also against big government
and against a variety of social policies. Their basic propositions are:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Economic Liberty:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";"> We will achieve an overall personal
income tax rate of 15%-19% by:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Abolishing all special interest
spending.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Removing non-value added government
services.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Abolishing Federal Income Tax and GST.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Delivering essential government services
only.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">End public investment in unreliable
energy technology, such as wind and solar.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l2 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Robust surface and subsurface land owner
and property rights.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">We will ensure that
Alberta remains friendly, open, and attractive to businesses by:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Reducing corporate taxes to 7%, while
maintaining current royalty formula.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Abolishing speculative and non-value
added industrial regulations.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Ensure that regulations imposed directly
and objectively relate to employee safety; and prevention and reclamation
of any air, soil, and water pollution.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Offer further incentives for maintaining
a 100% Alberta resident work-force.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Offer further incentives for the
relocation of manufacturing operations to Alberta.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Offer further incentives for the
development of shale and nuclear technology.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Taking punitive measures against
jurisdictions blocking Alberta’s economic progress.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">We can see these
positions as “red neck” conservatives – low tax, low spend government, limited
regulation yet creating incentives to “pick winners”. Yet their social policies
suggest that these minimum tax levels have to go a long way:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Ensure mandatory and available
addictions and mental health treatment for Alberta’s homeless and other
at-risk populations.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Protect Seniors through a stable and
portable Alberta Pension Plan; Explore solutions to lower cost of living
and support in-home care; Choice in healthcare.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Invest in communities through subsidy of
dental care, non-generic prescriptions, youth sport, conditional student
loan forgiveness, and qualified higher education via <b>resource royalty
revenue</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Alleviate courtroom backlogs and
prioritize serious criminal cases through de-regulating divorce and
matrimonial property disputes. Removing judicial prejudice against men in
family court.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Promote immigration in accordance with
economic and social need.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Impose severe penalties for murder,
terrorism, sexual assault, and drug trafficking.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Assist Alberta First Nations in
compensation claims against the Federal Government and institutional
partners for genocide and other abuses.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Protecting Albertans from discriminatory
on-line censorship.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Ensuring that publicly funded schools
teach the importance of Alberta’s energy industry, while protecting the
rights of parents in matters regarding sexuality or religion.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<ul style="margin-top: 0cm;" type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo3; tab-stops: list 36.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Outlawing groups whose primary objective
or effect is racial agitation, or social chaos.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">This is not a costed
platform, but is an expensive one with health privatization, subsidies and new
costs for government who will have much lower levels of revenue.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">The policy platform
also continues to rely on royalty revenues to fund the operations of government
(highlighted above). This has long been seen as a problem (oil and gas have
always been cyclical revenue sources) but this “platform” seeks to perpetuate
this.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">Alberta’s
Dystopia<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">So this is where we
are. A growing group of “alienated” Albertan’s are promoting the idea of Wexit
based on no serious analysis, no serious thinking about consequences and a lot
of poor understanding of some key issues. They have bought into some rhetoric
about Alberta being a victim and a lot of “gut”, evidence free thinking.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">What Alberta needs
is less rhetoric and more analysis; less policy based evidence and more
evidence based policy; less buying of bullshit and more understanding that most
problems are complex and wicked and do not have simple solutions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Avenir Book";">I am not optimistic.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-66572738523088256342019-08-29T13:50:00.003-07:002019-08-29T13:50:28.833-07:00Changing Times and the In Between Time
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People are clearly confused. They want certainty but live in
uncertainty. They want to know that patterns they are familiar with will not
change, but they will. They want to have a sense that the future is a straight
line from the past, but it isn’t. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
We are living in an “in-between time” – a time between one
model of the way in which the world works and another. A time of rapid, frequent
and complex change. A time when decisions made in one place – China,
Washington, London – have an impact on us all, even though we didn’t “have our
say”. It is a messy, confusing, disturbing time.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Five things are changing quickly:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>The United States is changing its place in
the world.</b> Whether intentionally or not, the US is no longer seen as a
source of truth, certainty or trust. Its former strength – strong diplomacy, a
superior military and a rational government – are all no longer self-evident.
Its military are struggling even though its budget ($730 billion) is the
largest in the world (though not the largest in terms of spend as a percentage
of GDP – that would be Saudi Arabia). It is struggling in Afghanistan and in
its roles elsewhere in the world. Its diplomats spend their time explaining Trump’s
tweets and appeasing the Whitehouse sensitivities and allies are losing faith.
As for rational government, look at simple things like gun control, democratic
rights, economic policy and ask “is the US a beacon in the way in which it
approaches these issues?”. This opens up the space of shaper of global relations
– Russia, China and EU now compete.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>The global economy is on the edge of
recession.</b> The yield curve (difference between short and long term interest
rates on bonds) is reversed and debts are rising quickly - $247 trillion needs
funding globally and this debt is growing at $2 billion a day.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>The nature of work and organizations around
the world is changing</b>. Technologies of various kinds (but especially 3d
printing, AI, blockchain, stem-cell based manufacturing, robotics, augmented
and virtual reality) are changing the relationship between people and machines
and impacting job and organizational design.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Companies are making money from intangibles (IP and business processes)
rather than tangible goods and services. Some 30-40% of all Canadian jobs will
be impacted by technology and it is anticipated that 2.4 million new jobs will
be created by 2030.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">4.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Family and community dynamics are changing</b>.
More single parent families, more single gender families, more divorces and
more common-law unions. More complex communities as a result of immigration – leading
to issues of multicultural respect, racism and understanding. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<!--[if !supportLists]--><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Avenir Book"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Avenir Book";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">5.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">
</span></span></span><!--[endif]--><b>Politics are changing</b>. There has always
been “party politics” but, until recently, there has also been cross-party
collaboration. But wherever you look, we now have very divisive tribal
politics. You are either for or against. It is also very personal. If you are
for X then you hate Y with a passion. There is a lot at stake – look at Brexit,
the Amazon Rainforest, Climate Change, World Trade, relations with Russia and
China. At the very moment we need diplomacy and inspired conversation, we have
antagonistic and vitriolic shouting.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One instinct people use is called “<b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">wishing back to the future</i></b>” – wishing the future was more like
a past they want to recollect (a past which was rarely as they describe it). We
have this now in Alberta – people wishing we could go back to when oil and gas was
king and cash flowed into and out of the oil and gas sector and created jobs
and a vibrant economy. Not going to happen. Too many aspects of the global
energy system have changed and too many companies have shifted their
understanding of the business that they are in for this to be a viable. In
addition, global energy prices will not return to the heady days of oil at
$100+ a barrel. Think about it: Shell used to be an oil and gas company and now
they are an energy and ecosystems management company; Weyerhaeuser used to be a
forest company, now they are a land management and eco-system services company<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
People want to “<b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">blame</i></b>”
someone for the change – the government (either the previous Alberta government
or the current Trudeau government), but their role in this is just one cog on a
very complex wheel. True – their actions can have an impact, but in the scheme
of things the role of a specific individual actor is minor. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Another instinct is to “<b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">fight against it all</i></b>” – to rail against change. The Yellow Vest
campaign in France was an attempt to stop sensible reform of working conditions;
the “Trumpistas” in the US support a President who wants to roll back
environmental regulations, bring back coal and denies climate change. Voting <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">against</i> and campaigning <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">for</i> “a return” to basics in education or
for “free speech on campus” or for anything which makes people feel like they
can go back in time is what this looks like.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
And then we have the “<b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">who
gives a crap</i></b>” silent minority who don’t vote, don’t get involved and
are then surprised when their world changes and feel depressed, angry, ignored,
hard done to and alone. They don’t see voting as helping, but equally they don’t
see being an engaged, active citizen as helping either. They expect others to
do things for them.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-42934262333641379832019-08-23T05:38:00.001-07:002019-08-23T05:38:51.359-07:00Alberta Curriculum Challenges: Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
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In Alberta, our UCP ideologically driven government has appointed
a panel of people who have not been inside a classroom in this millennium to
review the proposed school curriculum over the next twelve to sixteen weeks.
Not one current classroom teacher, student, specialist in students with
disabilities, unemployed graduate of media studies, LGTBQ2+ advocate,
entrepreneur, expert in literacy, champion of non-profits or person with
experience of online learning is on the panel. Naturally, many teachers and school-based
administrators are upset. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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We should not expect any better from the UCP. This is their
modus operandi – create a panel or task force to provide cover for what they
are going to do anyway. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their theory of
change is that anything started by the UCP is a mistake that needs to be
revised and corrected and that they need “cover to do it”.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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But this misunderstands this curriculum change journey. In 2009
the former conservative government engaged a very significant number of
Albertan’s in a conversation about schools and curriculum – the largest ever public
consultation about education in the province’s history. This led to the
publication of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Inspiring Education</i>,
championed by then Minister of Education Dave Hancock (later Premier) and
widely welcomed by teachers, educators and industry. One outcome of this work
was the recognition that the province needed a major investment in curriculum
redesign.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Former conservative Minister of Education, Jeff Johnson,
signed a <a href="https://education.alberta.ca/media/1626588/ministerial-order-on-student-learning.pdf">Ministerial
order on 6<sup>th</sup> May 2013</a> which essentially set the curriculum
change journey in motion. The next step in 2014 was a series of competitive
bids by school jurisdictions to prototype the curriculum indicated explicitly
in this Ministerial order. Significant funds were allocated to <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/09e2634c-6e0d-45c9-8abf-289017313182/resource/8172f07a-b817-460d-b0ff-2b2ac8df5157/download/partners.pdf">teams
across Alberta to prototype</a> the curriculum and to engage with industry and community
partners in doing so. Amongst those asked to be involved in this work were
Syncrude, Suncor, Cenovus, Microsoft, Apple, PCL, Safeway and Stantec (<a href="https://albertaviews.ca/overhauling-everything-schools-teach-kids/">some
later withdrew after a public uproar over their involvement</a>).<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Materials were developed, tested and shared. It is important
to note that it was not just teachers engaged in this work – <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBWmEjrFkIg">it involved significant
consultation</a>. The 203-15 process was estimated to have cost $30 million.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Prototyping took time, but substantial resources were
collaboratively developed. And shared Meantime, a change of government occurred
but the curriculum work continued. In 2017 the <a href="https://education.alberta.ca/media/3575996/curriculum-development-guiding-framework.pdf">Guiding
Framework for Curriculum Redesign</a> K-12 was published and made widely
available (drafts of this were circulated to stakeholders throughout 2016).
This followed significant new consultation with the public – part of the 2016
announcement of the $64 million, six-year curriculum change journey. An
additional $4 million was provided for consultation and engagement with
indigenous people focused on ensuring that indigenous ways of knowing and truth
and reconciliation were represented across the curriculum in appropriate ways. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In 2016 a major survey focused on specifics of curriculum redesign
was launched by the Ministry of Education. 32,391 people answered this – 47%
parents, 10% general public, 31% teachers, 9% K-12 students and 3%
post-secondary students. The <a href="https://education.alberta.ca/media/3575992/survey-summary-english.pdf">results
are</a> available for all to see.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The new NDP government announced in 2016 a six-year time-table
for curriculum development and engaged in an active partnership with the
Alberta Teachers’ Association, the professional body for teachers, and seconded
a great many teachers to work on the new curriculum building on past work (including
the prototyping). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is how curriculum
is normally developed around the world: professionals design, test and deploy. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As a result of PISA 2015, some parents expressed concern
about mathematics education and began a campaign, supported by some in the media,
to “return to basics” in mathematics. The argument is basically this: (a)
students are not doing as well on tests of mathematics such as the provincial
achievement tests (PATs) or PISA – app. one third of students failed Grade 9
PAT’s in 2018; (b) many students cannot complete simple mathematical problems. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the “crisis”. To blame, according to
the critics, is the mathematics curriculum which gives emphasis to mathematical
ways of thinking and problem solving rather than memorizing times-tables and
learning math routines. It is worth noting that, on PISA 2015, Alberta scored
511 in mathematics – the OECD average was 490 and the Canadian average 516.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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In both Ontario and Alberta, conservative politicians have vowed
to “fix math” by returning to “common sense” and basic math education. Yet many
countries who practice this kind of mathematics learning do worse than Alberta
on PISA. Part of the concern of the new UCP government in Alberta is to live-up
to its election promises with respect to this particular issue.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The pause in implementing the curriculum change – the K-4 new
curriculum was to be field tested in the 2019-2020 school year (which starts in
September) – is not necessarily a bad thing. Teachers need professional
development and support to launch a new program of study and the time between
now and the 2020-2021 new school year could be wisely used to support this work
if it becomes clear just what the curriculum might be. But after announcing the
pause and the flawed review panel, Minister of Education Adriana LeGrange
cannot be certain either what the curriculum will be or when it will be available.
Given that there is no budget for the education system until October, school boards
also have no idea what resources will be available for professional development
and needed materials to support the “new” “new” curriculum.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One beam of light came out of Ontario, which did something
similar. Premier Ford huffed and puffed about the Health and Physical Education
curriculum for elementary students. Ford paused the curriculum change because
of its “ideological” bias from the former Liberal government, especially as it
related to sex ed. The curriculum then in use was written in 1998 before
changes in our understanding and acceptance of gender identity, LGBTQ2+ and
sexual orientation. Ford’s team spent over $1 million on consultation and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-new-sex-ed-curriculum-1.5254327">released
the new, revised curriculum this week</a> which is largely unchanged from that
developed by the Liberal government. While Ford claims that the ability of parents
to remove their children from sex ed classes is new, in fact this has been the
practice in a great many school boards in Ontario for some time. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maybe patience is the lesson here. <span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-74336178354202792602019-05-16T21:34:00.000-07:002019-05-16T21:34:02.408-07:00Jason Kenny and the Test of Time
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The early signs from Jason Kenny are clear. He has an
agenda. The agenda is a list of classical neo-liberal moves which have yet to
produce the outcomes promised anywhere in the world. These agenda items include,
but are not limited to:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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<ul>
<li><b>Tax cuts for corporations and high wealth individuals</b>. The
claim: this will stimulate job growth and economic investments. The facts: this
leads to higher pay for executives, share-buybacks, cash hoarding and the movement
of money offshore.</li>
<li><b>The laying off of teachers, nurses and others in health,
education and social service professionals</b>. The claim: this will have no impact on front-line
services and is necessary to bring government spending into line with revenues
so as to balance the budget. The facts: this has a major impact on health,
education and social wellbeing outcomes, creates unemployment and damages the
long-term future of the Province.</li>
<li><b>The ending of certain taxes, like the Carbon tax</b>. The claim:
this is necessary to stimulate the economy and, in any case, there is no
evidence that a carbon tax is good for the environment. The facts: (a) this
reduces government revenues and increases deficits; (b) it has a direct
negative impact on emerging sectors of the economy (so-called green jobs), and (c) the evidence is clear that a CO2 tax is good for the environment. Further,
in our case in Alberta, this will lead to the imposition of a worse tax from
the Federal Government which, though Jason will challenge, the courts will support. </li>
<li><b>The increased use of public-private partnerships for public
works -<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>building schools, roads, hospitals, etc.</b> The claim: the public sector is “better” and “more efficient” at managing
such projects and this will save money. The facts: <span style="background: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There is no foundation to the claim that the
private sector is better at managing risk than the public sector. Virtually all
P3s in Canada have been justified on the basis that they transfer large amounts
of risk to the private sector. But a growing list shows that P3s are both riskier and more costly for the public, as the auditors general of Ontario and
Quebec has shown. In general, P3’s are more expensive both directly and in the
long term for the public than if the public sector built them.</span></li>
</ul>
<o:p></o:p><br />
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What
we will see, as we saw with Harper as PM, is increased debt, higher levels of
unemployment and the growth of Government “managerialism” and intervention (we are
already seeing this in Ontario) and a lot of nonsense talk ("bringing back the Alberta advantage" and "being open for business" as if we were ever not open for business and as if the advantage was about taxation rather than the abilities of our people and world-class education and health systems).</span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Deficits are no bad thing if they are within reason and Alberta's debt-deficit is within reason - indeed, many jurisdictions are envious of our strong position. The "blue-ribbon" panel appointed to find opportunities for spending reduction (never a good thing when we go "outside" for this kind of advice - they have little local context) will suggest significant savings so as to bring down the per capita costs of Alberta's public service nearer to that in BC (e,g a cut of app. $1.2 billion in K-12 school spending) without seeing the nuanced differences between BC and Alberta (look at taxation, for example). </span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";">So, after just a few days in office, Kenny is off to the races - largesse everywhere (you can now drink beer and wine in public parks), but favours for a few and misery for the masses. </span></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-17555457844906762782019-04-23T10:50:00.000-07:002019-04-23T10:50:03.012-07:00“School Choice” and the Myth of Improved Educational Outcomes
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Jason Kenny <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4970077/united-conservative-party-education-jason-kenney-alberta/">is promoting the idea of school choice</a> – code for the expansion of charter and private
schools. The UCP policy platform commits to <a href="https://www.progressalberta.ca/how-did-we-get-here">equal funding for students</a>, whether they attend public, Catholic, private or
charter schools. Alberta <a href="https://www.progressalberta.ca/how-did-we-get-here">already has has</a>
the highest per-capita funding of private schools in the country at 70 percent
of public school students, compared to 60 percent in Quebec, 50 percent in
B.C. and Manitoba and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">zero percent</i> in
Ontario.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Yet the evidence is clear
that charter and private schools do not increase the overall performance of the
education system in a jurisdiction. The World Bank says so:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">“There
is no consistent evidence that private schools<br />
deliver better learning outcomes than public schools.<br />
Numerous risks, such as the exclusion of disadvantaged<br />
or less able or desirable students, social segregation,<br />
exploitation of families for profit and the undermining of<br />
public education.” –World Bank Development Report on Education, 2017<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">And the OECD also says so:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 36.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">“School choice advocates often
argue that the<br />
introduction of market mechanisms in education allows<br />
equal access to high quality schooling for all…However<br />
evidence does not support these perceptions, as choice<br />
and associated market mechanisms can enhance<br />
segregation.” –OECD Equity and Quality in Education – Supporting Disadvantaged
Students and Schools, 2012<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><a href="https://credo.stanford.edu/pdfs/OH_state_report_2019.pdf">A 2019 study</a>
of the charter schools in Ohio conducted by Stanford University shows that the
“typical charter school student in Ohio makes similar progress in reading and
weaker growth in math compared to the educational gains that the student would
have made in a traditional public school” and further shows “that enrollment in
online charter schools is associated with substantially negative learning gains
in both reading and math, which drags down the overall charter school impact on
student progress”. <a href="https://credo.stanford.edu/pdfs/Idaho%20press%20release%20MCM.pdf">Similar
results</a> were found in Idaho and slightly better results <a href="https://credo.stanford.edu/pdfs/WA%202018%20Press%20Release.pdf">were
found for some</a> Charter schools, but not all, in Washington State. <a href="https://epi.org.uk/publications-and-research/performance-academy-local-authorities-2017/">Similar
findings</a> are reported for academies (charter schools) in England.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">But there are also significant examples of failure. A <a href="https://networkforpubliceducation.org/asleepatthewheel/">recent report</a>
from the Network for Public Education in the US shows that some 40% of US
Government-funded charter schools either never opened or closed shortly after receiving
government funding, <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/04/22/things-didnt-go-well-when-betsy-devos-was-confronted-her-departments-charter-school">wasting
one-third</a> of the $4.1 billion allocated by the Federal Government.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">What private and charter schools do to a school system is to
<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2019/03/25/report-us-government-wasted-up-billion-charter-schools-still-fails-adequately-monitor-grants/?utm_term=.24a658a6554b">change
the composition of public schools</a>, <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/choice/district_impact.pdf">reduce
overall available funding for public schools</a> and put at risk the equity of
school systems. In a major study of the <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674049178">privatization
of public education</a>, Sam Abrams demonstrates the negative impacts of the
explosion of charter schools in the US and other countries. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Sweden
is an interesting case. The country privatized much of its K-12 system
only to find that the private providers could
not function effectively and produce results. <a href="https://www.thelocal.se/20130612/48452">Some
went bankrupt</a>. Much like any
corporate entity, they cut corners by employing cheaper <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/10/us-sweden-schools-insight-idUSBRE9B905620131210?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews">teachers that were not qualified</a> while spending <a href="https://www.dissentmagazine.org/article/got-dough-how-billionaires-rule-our-schools">lavishly on outside consultants</a>. They also employed a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/10/us-sweden-schools-insight-idUSBRE9B905620131210?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews">competitive scheme where teachers were financially</a> rewarded for garnering better test scores, <a href="http://standpointmag.co.uk/features-january-february-14-performance-related-pay-will-be-a-debacle-katharine-birbalsingh-michael-gove">leading the school to focus more on test preparation
than on education and learning.</a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">In England, the transfer of
public resources to private firms continues apace. Charter schools (known as
academies or free schools in England) have supplanted schools which were
formerly public schools supervised by skilled educational oversight teams and
local education authorities. <a href="https://antiacademies.org.uk/2018/09/panorama-profits-before-pupils-the-academies-scandal/">More than 7,000 schools have become academies</a>. Academies don’t have to follow the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/national-curriculum">national
curriculum</a> and can set their own
term times. Funded directly by Government, the only oversight they receive is
from their own managing board and from a national inspection service. Many
academies are part of “chains” or network of like-minded schools bonded by
common ownership. Some of these chains have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/jul/22/academy-schools-scandal-failing-trusts">collapsed in scandal</a>. There is <a href="https://www.blogger.com/the%20DfE%E2%80%99s%20own%20evidence%20showed%20there%20was%20hardly%20any%20difference%20in%20outcomes%20between%20academies%20and%20local%20authority%20schools,%20once%20you%20controlled%20for%20their%20pupil%20intakes,">no evidence that academies perform better than public
schools</a>, once adjustments are made
for intake.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">What is more, academies are
not efficient. In 2018 <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/carillion-academies-conservatives-deficit-financial-scandal-education-a8186751.html">six of the 10 largest academy trusts</a> issued warnings over pay, short-staffing, building
safety, and financial risks. The trusts cover hundreds of English schools. One
of the largest chains, the Ark Schools<a href="https://www.tes.com/news/ark-reports-ps4m-loss-and-relies-loans-between-its-schools-cover-deficits">, posted a £4.1 million loss in 2017-18</a> even though it had over 50,000 students enrolled. A
recent report suggests that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/education-43435689">eight
out of ten academies are in deficit</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">So why the interest in
charter schools? One answer is money. While the organizations that run them pay
themselves handsomely, secure significant assets (in England this includes land,
buildings, and infrastructure) that were previously publicly owned and can award
their own partner businesses lucrative consulting, technology and management
contracts. While the academy or charter school may not be financially viable, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/feb/03/academies-schools-deficit-bailout">the State is always there to “bail” out schools at
risk of closure</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">A second reason is
ideological. Charter schools can pursue their own versions of teaching and
learning <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/charter-schools">somewhat independent of oversight by others</a>. In Canada, Charter schools still have to offer the
Provincial curriculum and be subject to Provincial education regulations, but
have a degree of independence not found in many school districts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Alberta adopted charter schools in 1994 to
encourage innovation and permit parental choice. The thirteen charter schools that
remain (three closed due to poor registrations, poor management or some
combination of both) are largely located in Calgary and Southern Alberta. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Alberta also has a
significant number of private registered or accredited private schools which
serve app. 4% of Alberta’s school students. Most of these schools reflect a
commitment to a particular religion. The key difference between Charter and
Private schools relate to the ability to determine who can be admitted –
private schools can select students, Charter schools cannot. The Alberta
government <a href="https://albertaviews.ca/should-private-schools-get-public-funding/">provides app. $13,000 in funding for every child who
goes to public school but just $5,200 for everyone in a private school. The
funding for private school students amounts to app. $162 million per year out
of a $9-billion education budget.</a>
Five other Provinces in Canada provide no funds to private schools, yet they
persist in these jurisdictions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Albertan’s have a great deal
of choice between types of publicly funded schools. Alberta is one of only
three provinces that provide fully-funded Catholic education, and one of only
two provinces that provide fully-funded French Catholic education, within the
public system.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Would increasing the number
of private or charter schools and increasing the level of public funding
available improve the performance of the system overall? There is no compelling
evidence that it would. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<!--EndFragment--><br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-55096982186491960962019-03-27T14:13:00.001-07:002019-03-27T14:13:39.077-07:00Jason Kenny Fails the Education Test <div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">Jason Kenny’s educational policy was launched this week and received a failing grade from the teacher professional body.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
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Jason Kenny’s understanding of the nature and purpose of public education is limited. He sees the purpose of school in terms of skills, tests, and competition: competition between students, between schools and between public and private systems. Results of tests are, he suggests, more important than supporting the development of soft skills, compassion, well-being, and genuine understanding. He seeks to determine what is best for children without engaging the teaching profession, who have condemned his proposals for educational reform.<o:p></o:p></div>
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He wants to reintroduce mandatory large-scale assessments at Grades 1,2 and 3 and retain other tests at 6 and 9. This at a time when other leading systems, like Singapore, are reducing testing. Even Australia, a lighthouse for neo-liberal market-driven education, is pulling back from testing in recognition that they do little to improve learning, yet drain the system of valuable resources. Educational tests measure not skills but economic status and the extent of parental support.<o:p></o:p></div>
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He wants to lift the cap on charter schools and encourage and enable more parental choice. This is a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> coded message. What he means to say, but cannot quite bring himself to do so, is that he wants to shift public assets and funds to private hands. While he will mask this privatization in terms of “not for profit” organizations, the real purpose is to denude the public system of resources so as to create a market for students. This despite compelling evidence that Charter schools do not improve student outcomes or overall system performance.<o:p></o:p></div>
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He wants to “rip up” the carefully and professionally crafted “new” curriculum on the grounds that it is ideologically driven. He intends to replace it with his own ideologically driven curriculum, as yet unspecified. What we do know is that he has bought into the widely rumoured, but generally untrue, view that Alberta has a math crisis despite being amongst the top math performers on the OECD PISA assessments in the English speaking world. He claims that “discovery math” and constructivism has debased math education and destroyed mathematical skills and abilities amongst students. He cites declining PISA scores and scores on Provincial assessments over time as if these captured the nature of maths learning and the achievement of students, ignoring the shifting demographic base amongst the student body over time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He offers a solution to a problem that does not really exist.<o:p></o:p></div>
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He wants to re-assert parental rights, especially with respect to LGTBQ2 and gay-straight alliances (GSA's)in schools. He will reposition these rights in amended legislation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“Parents know what is best for their children”, he asserts. This despite the fact that we have one of the most competent and skilled professional body of teachers in the world who have had years of training and supervised practice aimed at enabling learning. Parents know somethings about their children and teachers know different things. It is the partnership between them that matters, but not to Kenny.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The UCP education spokesman indicated that Kenny will not make significant new investments in education “until the oil price returns to previous levels” (or, he might have added, until the Oilers win the Stanley Cup). The student population in Alberta is growing at 2.1% per annum between now and 2041 and new schools, new teachers and new resources are needed, Kenny himself sent a different signal, saying he would build new schools. But he has also said that he will reduce public expenditure to be more aligned with the expenditure in BC, which would mean a cut to education (K-12) by app. $1 billion. We can only guess which of these two statements reflects his view.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Teachers have not had a meaningful pay rise for several years, despite inflation. Yet they are working with ever-growing class sizes and reduced resources to support students with special needs. Kenny is silent on pay and conditions, other than to say that he will investigate what happened to specific funds given to school boards to ensure that class-sizes were aligned with Provincial guidelines. Inquiring into the past is not a statement about what he intends to do in the future.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Kenny will take the Province into a larger deficit than we have now, since he has promised to abolish the Carbon Tax, reduce business taxes and some personal income tax rates for the higher income earners. He claims he will find efficiencies in health and education and that his economic measures will stimulate job growth. He is offering no convincing economic analysis or modeling for these claims. Trickle down and voodoo economics – Kenny’s brand of populism – results in higher deficits and debt, as we have seen from the first two years of the Trump administration (the US deficit has incrased by 77% since Trump took office).<o:p></o:p></div>
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Operational efficiencies have been a focus for the present Alberta government as well as the previous Conservative government. For example, administrative expenditures in education are constrained at 3.6% of operating budgets for all school boards and some changes have been made to the rate of growth of public spending.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Alberta’s net-debt as a % of GDP is not only the lowest in Canada (app. 8%) but is amongst the lowest in the developed world. Alberta is also the ninth wealthiest jurisdiction on the planet. Kenny’s economic mindset is Thatcherite and his notions of government are classical neo-liberal. He is promoting a hollowed out state view of government and trickle down economics. We have seen this movie before during the Klein era, which left infrastructure deficits, people deficits and skill deficits and an over-reliance on an industry in transition (oil and gas). His educational thinking is rooted in a failed ideology of marketization coupled with tight constraints by Government which in turn distorts the market – look at the evidence from the US and England. Education is not a market it is a public good.<o:p></o:p></div>
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We see some of Kenny’s ideas currently being enacted in Ontario. Class sizes are to be increased, with a potential loss of over 5,000 teachers. Discovery math is to be replaced by “traditional mathematics teaching. Sex education is to be taught using a curriculum dating from the 1980’s rather than the more recently launched version. Testing is to be strengthened along the lines Kenny is suggesting, despite a public consultation and extensive professional review suggesting that this was inappropriate. All Ontario students will also be required to take four high school courses in a fully online mode, likely leading to further teacher lay-offs.<o:p></o:p></div>
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In Alberta:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<li><span style="font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]-->We can expect teacher lay-offs and challenging issues of recruitment and retention in the teaching profession.</li>
<li><o:p> </o:p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">We can expect more privatization through Charter Schools and more Charter school failures (we already have had three).</span></li>
<li><o:p> </o:p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">We can expect curriculum to be a </span>battleground<span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> between students, parents, teachers and an ideologically driven government pushing teaching models which do not have proven efficacy.</span></li>
<li><o:p> </o:p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">We can predict even larger class sizes and challenges over the work-loads of teachers, especially as it relates to the </span>support<span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> for students in need.</span></li>
<li><o:p> </o:p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><span style="font-size: 12pt; text-indent: -0.25in;">We can also expect no significant change in the outcomes of our education system or possibly a decline in our standing in the world</span></li>
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We may also see teachers deciding that working under these conditions with no prospect of either improvements in their conditions of practice, pay or well-being to say “enough is enough”. More teachers will leave the profession and recruiting new teachers will become increasingly difficult. Teacher training and education will also become more challenging, as funding for universities and colleges will also be under pressure and likely reduced, as has already happened in Ontario.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The official UCP policy is to break up the ATA from being a teacher professional body which also bargains for the profession into a union and a professional body and to take Principals and Superintendents out of the bargaining unit. The UCP have not yet gone so far as to suggest that union membership should be voluntary, but this is the case in many North American jurisdictions. Kenny has suggested that he has no immediate intention of breaking up the ATA (widely regarded as one of the leading teacher professional bodies in the world), but his trustworthiness with respect to promises is low (ask several UCP candidates and look at the “grassroots promise”, now broken several times). <o:p></o:p></div>
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In other jurisdictions another target has been school boards, they have gone in two Provinces (PEI and Nova Scotia) and are likely to disappear in two more (Manitoba and Quebec). Alberta has too many school boards, but rationalizing them is politically challenging. Given Kenny’s mindset (Government (a.k.a as "Jason - knows best") we can expect this too to be a battleground.<o:p></o:p></div>
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It is time for a grand coalition of those who know and care about education in Alberta to fight this nonsense and to stand up for our learners, teachers and Principals. If we do not and Kenny wins the election and starts to act on his neo-liberal agenda, then we are in for a period of significant challenge, decline and despair. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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It is also time for researchers to step up and show the evidence that the kind of policies being proposed do not produce the outcomes claimed for them and that the costs of implementing them in human terms is far greater than stated. The evidence is clear and substantial that neoliberalism and new public management in education damage rather than build, impoverish rather than strengthen while leading to lower outcomes and reduced equity. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-38981767957053160512019-02-06T07:46:00.001-07:002019-02-06T07:48:08.024-07:00The State of the PresidentI did not watch the State of the Union speech last night - I had to count the number of raisins in a bag and then the number of matches in a box - but I had seen this version an hour or so before the actual event.<br />
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My fellow Americans<br />
Believers in all things possible</div>
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I am here tonight to share with you the State of the President</div>
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I know you thought that I was to talk about the State of the Union, but I will freely admit that I have not been to Union Station since I was fourteen.</div>
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As President, I have a hectic schedule. After I watch Fox News and then Teletubbies (which is where I get the ideas for my policies from), I have a series of phone calls with porn stars, felons, hat-makers, and wig designers. Then I get a security briefing, which is an ideal time to browse through shoe catalogs or brochures for various tan creams. Then I tweet – sometimes I tweet early, sometimes late – but tweeting is done to ensure that you all know the state of my mind. Once I tweet, then my mind of empty until the next tweet. I tweet the first thing that pops into my head. So as to make sure I am always tweet-free up there – I hate having ideas.</div>
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As the most successful President of any country in history, I don’t have to do much – just lie and call other people names. Both of these I am very good at. My friend Vladimir, who sends me secret messages every day and suggests really big ideas for tweets (it was his idea that we pull the troops out of Syria), says that I am by far the most deceitful President in the history of the species – he’s a terrific guy. You don’t get praised like that every day.</div>
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Tonight I will announce that I am expanding the border wall to be around every State in the Union except Puerto Rico – I don’t like that Ricky Martin and as far as I am concerned, Puerto Rico doesn’t sound American (I have my doubts about New Mexico too – we have enough problems with the old Mexico, don’t know why the founding fathers ever wanted a new one!). </div>
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I am also going to build a wall between Canada and the United States to stop those pesky Trudeauians getting in and promoting universal health care, global trade and world peace – all dangerous ideas that will lead to hegemony and begonias – flowers that shouldn’t be in anyone’s garden.</div>
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I also intend to announce an amnesty for all the porn stars I have paid off as well as pardons for all my campaign staff and appointees who have or will be indicted by Robert Mueller. The witch hunter in chief will not besmirch my character with these characters. I can do this all by myself.</div>
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As you know, some of the world leading scientists have confirmed this, I am one of the most interesting narcissistic ego-maniac ignorant dufus’s to ever to occupy the White House – a title I am most proud of. This is why I surround myself with people who are also world-class at being bonkers – Rudi Giuliani, Stephen Miller, and Robert Bolton to name just five.</div>
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My economic strategy – lying about stuff that is about the economy and claiming that I am responsible for all the good things – is working. We have full employment, full money bags, full billionaires and a lot of poor people. Indeed, under my leadership, the number of poor people is growing faster than under any other President in history, thanks to my tax cuts, health care cuts and hiring Betsy de Vos. </div>
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Two more years of this and then you have a chance to re-elect me, which you will. After all, Late Night Television has never been so good and Melania needs some new outfits and Barron can't leave until he has finished school, which will be six years from now. Then I will make him head of the FBI – what kid would investigate his Dad?</div>
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So, moving forward together, singing that song of union and marching to the tune of Yes we Are Bananas, I look forward to continuing to serve as the 4087th President of wherever we are.</div>
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God bless us all and God Save us!</div>
<div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-33714934570765065832019-01-21T10:24:00.000-07:002019-01-21T10:24:18.979-07:00Trump Does Not Lie, He is Simply Delusional<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal;">The Washington Post today reports that President Trump has made 8,158 false or misleading statements since he became President and that the pace of these untruths or misleading statements has risen from 5.9 to 16.5 a day between the first and second year of his term. Indeed, so misleading are many of his statements that the Washington Post has had to create a new category – Bottomless Pinocchio’s – so as to be able to rate his statements. These Bottomless Pinocchio’s include the claim that the 2017 tax cuts were the biggest in history (nowhere near), overstatement of the impact and scale of US trade deficits and the idea that the US economy has never been stronger.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal;">What the Post doesn’t understand, and many journalists fall into this trap, is that for Trump they are not lies or untruths. This is because Trump’s world and his understanding of the world are not at all the same as the rest of humanity.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal;">President Trump believes in a different world. One in which trade deficits are like a balance sheet (they are not), a casual comment from Kim Jong Un is equal to a commitment, Putin is a friend, not an enemy and that dictators are not bad, just effective.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal;">He is delusional about his own accomplishments and abilities – just count the number of times he has claimed “no one knows more about…[fill in the blank] than I do!”. He also is delusional about his electoral base – never accepting that he massively lost the popular vote (election fraud is his explanation) or that the base will follow him no matter what he does. His view of the midterm election – “we won” – is another example of delusional thinking in action.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal;">He has always been delusional – it is not a new condition for him – and some have suggested that his mental state is linked to the possibility that he may <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/140702/medical-theory-donald-trumps-bizarre-behavior">have neurosyphillis</a> (as did Delius, Schubert and Al Capone and possibly Mussolini, Hitler and Ivan the Terrible). Whether he does or not, it is clear that his delusional thinking and world-view has consequences. For example, this last weekend he praised <a href="https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/politics/article/Trump-mentions-San-Antonio-in-comments-about-13547059.php">San Antonio for its handling of immigrants because of its wall</a> – a wall it doesn’t actually have. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal;">The idea that he is a Russian asset – something he has denied – is an attempt by sensible people to make sense of his behaviour. After all, he is achieving many of Putin’s objectives – destabilize the US, NATO, Europe, supported right-wing leaders (Brazil, Hungary, Philippines) and don’t support increasing collaboration with China, pull out of Syria (leaving it as a Russian asset) – without getting much in return. However, as some commentators note, he may be doing this unwittingly (or half-wittedly) rather than intentionally supporting Russian political objectives. Given that he doesn’t read briefings, understand global politics or have any sense of real-politic, I go with the half-wit version of this. He is living in his understanding of the world, not ours.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12.0pt; font-style: normal;">As a psychologist, I need to make clear that I am offering observations not a diagnosis and am reflecting on what I see in the absence of detailed analysis. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10536145.post-21036038595679758992019-01-13T12:29:00.002-07:002019-01-13T12:29:36.600-07:00I Wonder if This Would Make a Good Birthday Present for My Good Lady?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lbxtU_7p-JY/XDuRb2QyGkI/AAAAAAAAT3Q/fc4dDvupVEAik4qGyVdH3yZwvNx3iNL9wCLcBGAs/s1600/49946946_2015616182075037_4300258652758999040_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1440" data-original-width="1440" height="320" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lbxtU_7p-JY/XDuRb2QyGkI/AAAAAAAAT3Q/fc4dDvupVEAik4qGyVdH3yZwvNx3iNL9wCLcBGAs/s320/49946946_2015616182075037_4300258652758999040_o.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br /><div class="blogger-post-footer">Written by Stephen Murgatroyd - contact stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca for permissions.</div>Stephen Murgatroydhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14407855028282306596noreply@blogger.com0