The Alberta chatterati – the chatterers
about Alberta and politics – seem to have three key convictions.
The first that
Premier Alison Redford is a dead Premier walking. She has lost confidence of
caucus, the story goes, and is in the death throes of her administration.
The
second part of this gripping narrative is that, so as to position herself for a
graceful exit, she is moving to the right to establish her national credentials
as a fiscal and real conservative rather than the liberal lawyer with a funny
hair do.
Finally, in this three part story, Doug Horner has been anointed her
natural heir and successor - having
secured the backing of the monied elite in Calgary and the support of caucus.
That is the story. Whether we believe any
of it is another question, but there is good evidence that key elements have
some credibility.
First, the Premier has never been able to
manage her caucus and is clearly not a street-wise politician. Smart, highly
articulate, very intelligent and capable, she has never endeared herself to the
rural dominated, predominantly male caucus. She does not come from the same
place, is “too clever for her own high heels” and is not one to suffer fools
gladly. This latter problem is serious, There are several real fools in caucus
and some in cabinet. Her own staff, as is shown by some key resignations, has
also found her brittle and awkward. It is a shame – she is by far the smartest
Premier since Peter Laugheed and has an ability to see beyond the current game
and take a long view. But if she can’t bring her own team with her, she is
toast. The first rule of leadership is to have people following you. If they
are not, de facto, you are no longer
the leader.
The second element of the story – that she
is moving to the right - is clearly the
case. Key election promises lay in tatters, Her fiscal position rules out new
revenues and her solution to our budget challenge is austerity – a failed policy of the right the globe over.
Rather than seeking to stimulate growth and increase revenues, she has fallen
for the right wing agenda and is about to announce a min-Klein agenda.
Whether this is to boost her future
position as a national conservative or not, she is moving away from the more
liberal Premier that stood for election just a few months ago. Fighting with
doctors and teachers, cutting or freezing budgets, cutting school budgets and
giving up on flagship educational programs and sending in the Deputy Premier to
rationalize post-secondary education (a system which Doug Horner complicated
and made less comprehensible) are all signs that she has moved to the
right. We will see more signs on March 7th
when the Provincial budget arrives (if it not leaked before).
But whether this is about positioning her
for her conservative future I doubt. It just reflects the paucity of
imagination in her caucus, the lack of sophistication in their understanding of
politics, power and economics and their lack of vision.
If she is gone as Premier by this time next
year – a confident prediction of the chatterati – then she will not be eligible
as a national conservative leader until a significant period of detoxification
and rehabilitation. When Stephen Harper
steps down as Prime Minister (something he shows no signs of doing), a Premier
of Alberta who lived a brief life in power will not be an attractive
proposition.
As for Doug Horner, he is clearly seen by many to be running
the Government of Alberta in all but name right now. Whether he can secure the
leadership after the demise of the Premier we will have to wait and see. But we
can be sure of a fight. Ted Morton is alive and well and starting to appear on
screen and stage and others who left the party stand by to return once the
Redford regime enters history. It will not be a cake walk.
One reason for this is the presence of
Danielle Smith. The leader of the Wild Rose must think she has died and gone to
heaven. She watches the progressive (sic) conservative party implode in front
of her and simply draws attention to their failures, smiles, and observes. Her
loss at the last election has enabled her to regroup and refocus in a way that
positions her as Redford’s natural successor as Premier. Assuming she can detox
her party of the wild elements and make it more rose like, she will more likely
win than lose.
What we are not witnessing is a serious and
substantial conversation about economics, public policy and evidence based
decisions. Take education, for example. Will laying off some 1,500 to 2,000
teachers, cancelling investments in innovation (e.g. the Alberta Initiative for
School Improvement), moving to merit pay (which has no merit) and asking
teachers without a contract to do more with less will really improve
educational outcomes and increase student engagement? Who in their right mind
thinks that seeing teachers “as the problem” rather than excessive management
spending (over seven hundred people in the Department of Education and significant
numbers in central office staffing in Edmonton and Calgary Public Schools), over
control and reporting requirements by Government, bureaucratic accountability
systems and a curriculum that is no longer fit for purpose shows imaginative
leadership for our world-class school system?
Its time to rethink Alberta and to have an
imagination conversation not just about economics, but about the kind of
Alberta the worlds need to see, I don’t see this Government as interested in
such a conversation. Closed minds don’t open to challenge.
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