According to
James Hanson, climate warmist and chief prophet of doom, coal is the single
biggest danger to the planet and our survival. He called coal fired power
plants “factories of death” and has suggested that the continued use of
existing coal fired energy, never mind expansion, would set the planet on a
course for an ice-free state, with sea level 75 meters higher than at present.
He concluded that coal is the single largest threat to the future of the planet
(1)
Current installed and actively used coal
fired power plants is substantial and, world wide, they are set to expand with
an additional 1,401,275 megawatts of coal fired power to be produced in the
period 2013-2015. India and China between them account for over 1 million
megawatts of new facilities in this time (2).
The primary reason for this is the
industrialization of China and India and the expansion of industry in the emerging
economies. Just as coal fired the industrial revolution in the West, so it is
firing the emerging economies and their dash for growth.
Interestingly, in Europe some of this
expansion is displacing renewable energy. Germany is a good example. Following the tsunami in Japan,
Germany made a decision to close all of its nuclear facilities. While it was
hoping to replace nuclear with renewables, the cost of doing so are substantial:
energy prices have risen so high in Germany because of renewables that
companies are moving to lower energy cost jurisdictions. German firms and
policy makers have realized that, as the average energy cost rise relative to
other countries, Germany becomes less
competitive. When a country less competitive, it tends to use less
oil. The extra oil tends to go to a more competitive country, and may help
raise coal usage – 12,600 megawatts of coal power is under construction in
Germany, driven by energy economics. Power utilities in Germany, on average,
lose €11.70 when they burned gas to make a megawatt of electricity, but earn
€14.22 per MW when they burned coal.
Most of
eastern Europe is also expanding coal use – especially Poland, the Ukraine and
Russia. The amount of electricity generated from coal is rising at
annualized rates of as much as 50% in some European countries, according to the
International Energy Agency.
In North
America the situation is very different. At its peak, in 1988, coal provided
60% of North America’s electricity. Even in 2010, when the shale-gas boom was
well under way, it still accounted for 42%. By the middle of 2012, though, gas
and coal were roughly neck-and-neck, each with around a third of power
generation. With new shale gas finds and improving technologies, coal will
continue its decline as a major source of energy.
Coal,
natural gas and shale gas are competitively priced, abundant and proven
commodities. While each has environmental consequences, the shine is going from
wind power and solar power due to costs, reliability and performance – we are
at peak renewables in terms of their attractiveness from a policy and practice
point of view. In these conditions, conventional energy sources become
attractive. We will see the continuing expansion of coal use globally.
A key factor
in these developments is the inability of governments to focus on energy
policies and strategies that secure the competitiveness of nations balanced
with environmental responsibilities. As Roger Pielke Jr, climate change policy
specialist based in Denver, suggests: economic needs always trump climate
change policies, as we can see in the European Union and US at this time. With
unemployment high, economic growth slow and structural challenges to the
developed economies of the world largely unresolved, energy strategy will be to
maintain low cost energy and to minimize cost impacts of energy on firms and
consumers. Emissions targets, renewable subsidies and plans for renewable
expansion will be sacrificed in the name of economic growth and necessity.
Shale gas, natural gas and coal are attractive energy forms in this reality.
Coal will continue to see a renaissance as an energy source.
James
Hansen, now in his seventy first year, will end his career convinced that the
world is doomed. He is like that – a pessimist. Coal will be his nemesis.
Sources
1. James Hanson – see http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/feb/15/james-hansen-power-plants-coal
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