It is just a year since George Bush secured a convincing second term as President of the United States. Last week was a bad week, but not a week he cannot recover from. The loss of the Vice President’s Chief of Staff, Lewis “Scotter” Libby, as well as his candidate for Associate Justice on the Supreme Court, Harriet Miers, are blows, but such blows are not unusual early in the second term of a President. He will recover, using his State of the Union address in January as the launch point for his final years as President.
There are six things he needs to do to secure a place in history more favourable than seems possible right now. First, he needs to clean house. A significant shake up of his administration, including a new Vice President, would send a signal that the President has got the message. He needs to show strong support for his Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, one of the better ambassadors for the US in recent times and a potential Presidential candidate. He needs to stop pure patronage appointments and start to surround himself with talent.
Second, recognizing that the US economy is a “clear and present” danger to his legacy - government spending is too high, inflation is growing, consumer debt is high and there is a need to stimulate the economy is some regions and slow it in others – he needs to act to show leadership on economic stability and growth. His sound appointment last week of a new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Professor Ben Barnanke, signals that he understands the need to return to fiscal conservatism. He needs to recognize too that China, India and Brazil pose real threats to the competitiveness of US companies and act in a way that promotes free trade.
Third, he needs to work very hard to find a new place for the US in the changing geo-politics of the world. The US has lost many allies in the last five years, not least because the US is becoming increasingly inward focused on its own needs and its own understanding of the world. It needs to work with others to either significantly reinvent the UN and its role in the twenty first century, or lead others to replace the UN with institutions that work. It needs to build coalitions around global warming, global health and peacekeeping in which the US and others are seen to make a difference. Rather than being the “bad guy” of geo-politics, it is time for the US to step up to the plate with new allies – China, India, the EU – and chart out a course for this century.
Fourth, he needs to address the concerns that emerged following Katrina about the thirty seven million American’s living in poverty. They need better access to health care, a reform of social security and a strong sense that American society recognizes them as valuable contributors.
Fifth, he needs to strengthen alliances within this continent. Expanding NAFTA, respecting the role of NAFTA in settling disputes between the US and its partners, and building a stronger relationships with other South American states through the development and expansion of the role of the Organization of American States. As the economy of Mexico and Brazil expand rapidly – with Brazil expected to be a major player on the world stage the next decade – the US needs to be “ahead of the game” and work towards alliances and partnerships that support trade, support a continental health strategy and strengthen the role of the Americas in the world.
Finally, he needs to do something about the environmental issues that concern many Americans and their neighbours to the North and South. The US Government wisely did not sign up to Kyoto, but has recently acknowledged that global warming is a real danger. Over the last 15 years environmental foundations, governments and other organizations have invested hundreds of millions of dollars into combating global warming. We have strikingly little to show for it. Kyoto will make little difference. What is really needed are some bold moves by the world’s largest polluters – the US is one of them. It has started to act, in part through the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate and in part through State based legislation requiring emission reduction. Strong leadership on this file would reposition the US in a very significant way.
Behind all of this there is Iraq – a quagmire of ideology, politics, militarism and money. Bush would secure massive gains in popularity if he announced, after the Iraq elections in December, a phased plan for withdrawal. It may not be possible, but it is needed.
Some commentators in Canada see our dispute with the US over softwood lumber, respect for NAFTA and ongoing issues with beef as major issues. Condoleezza Rice was right to put these in perspective during her recent visit. Given all that is going on, these are small issues between partners – there are literally hundreds of such disputes between members of the EU, some of which have lasted far longer and involve much more money than our softwood lumber dispute, despite clear rulings from the European Courts. Canada needs to find ways of encouraging and supporting the US. That requires leadership from Canada – a complaining leadership is less likely to be influential than an imaginative and creative one.
Will Bush bounce back? Yes he will. Will it make a difference to the relationship with other countries, including Canada ? Absolutely. Will it be soon ? Not likely. Will it be dramatic ? Watch the State of the Union address to see, but yes has to be the answer, otherwise Bush will fail the legacy test set for any second term President – “will he go down in history as a success or failure?”. Watch this space.
Sunday, October 30, 2005
The Late President Bush
This graph (click on it to enlarge it - its worth it!), from today's Washington Post, shows President George W Bush Jnr's current approval rating. Since around 22nd April, those who disapprove (blue line) outnumber those who approve (red line) and the number is growing. The number who have no real idea of what's going on or simply don't care (green line) is reasonably constant over time.
Not only is the approval rating slipping, but the White house is distracted. It is distracted by the issue of the leak, which led to the resignation and indictment last week of Lewis "Scooter" Libby - the Vice President's Chief of Staff - and the possible later indictment of others, including the President's "brain", Karl Rove. It is distracted by its continued failure to handle Katrina, Wilma and various other natural disasters at home and abroad well. It is distracted by Iraq and the continued insurgence and acts of vile terror that are conducted there every day, endagering coalition troops and threatening a fragile seedling democracy. It is distracted by an economy which is in deep trouble, partly because of Government debt but mainly because of consumer debt and the potential of inflation. It is distracted by the mishandling of the appointment of an Associate Justice to the Supreme Court. It is distracted by a world that, increasingly, does not know what to do with the US on any issue - global warming, the future of the UN, peacekeeping.
The major reason, however, that these distractions are serious is that President George W Bush Jnr does not seem to have a vision for what he wants to accomplish in this second and last term. It is just a year ago that he won a convincing and predictable victory in the electoral process American puts itself through - gruelling and demanding as this is. In that year, despite some notable successes (the reasonably smooth replacement of the Chief Justice, succeeding in his appointment of a contoversial ambassador to the UN, securing an alliance on some aspects of environmental management with other countries), it all now seems to be coming apart.
Writing about the predicament President Bush finds himself in, Dan Balz of the Washington Post observes:
The president's advisers recognize the reality in which they find themselves.
"What the public wants is back-to-basics governance and decision making,"
presidential counselor Dan Bartlett said yesterday. "This is not a situation in
which it changes overnight or that there's a 'Hail Mary' pass that changes the
dynamic. . . . There's not a magic bullet."
He needs to speak to issues that American's care about: (a) getting the economy under control by reducing spending (made more difficult by the Iraq war spend and Katrina) and finding ways of reducing deficit and debt; (b) focusing on free trade and expanding the US market presence in the face of growing competition from China, India, Brazil and Mexico; (c) fixing social security and access to health, especially for the most vulnerable in American society; (d) rebuilding the credibility of the US in the world by making it clear just where it stands on key issues - global warming, peacekeeping, the future of the UN; and (e) a clear plan for getting out of Iraq. It also needs to minimize distractions - the phony "war on terror", patronage scandals, Iran's nuclear program.
The Republican Party needs to work hard too. It needs to identify one or two front runners for the next election and start to position them now. They need to be offering a view of the future that involves vision, strategy and challenging goals for the Government to meet. Jeb Bush is well positioned for the Republican's and has done a competent job for the State of Florida. He comes tainted as part of the Bush dynasty, but he is solid. The other possibility is Condi Rice, the Secretary of State who is doing a sterling job and is as sharp as a pin - she is constrained in what she can say and do and will be even more tainted than Jeb.
One would expect the Democratic Party to be having a field day, but if there is anything interesting at all about the current situation it is their near silence. Hilary Clinton, still seen by most as the front runner for 2007/8, has kept quiet - knowing too well just what these situations are like, having been before a Grand Jury herself and having watched her husband go through legal challenges and a failed impeachment.
Early next year, Bush will attempt to use his State of the Union address to chart a revised agenda for the rest of his term, which his advisers believe will help signal changes in direction and emphasis from the past year. Outside analysts agreed that Bush has plenty of time left to extricate himself from his problems but expressed skepticism that things will work out as well as the president's advisers hope.
So it is his successors that should really worry now.
Saturday, October 29, 2005
The Weight of Water
I use the public library a lot. In part because it makes reading cheaper, but also to make sure that they continue to operate - the more they are used, the less likely they are to vulnerable to closure.
So I take out 3-5 books a week, usually novels, and plough through them. Started to read The Weight of Water by Anita Shreve and found it familiar. Then I remembered. Sean Penn, Elizabeth Hurley, Josh Lucas and others were in the film version of this novel, directed by Kathryn Bigelow (K-19, Point Break, Strange Days). An interesting story - contemporary plot intermingled with a historical story of murder - very well done. One I would recommend.
Symphony last night with the Hummell Trumpet Concerto and a lot of Grieg - but not the usual stuff. Enjoyable, especially given the theatrics of our new conductor William Eddins. An interesting fellow, who obviously loves music - it exudes from his every gesture. He is launching a podcast this month on classical music. I have seen many conductors - Barbarolli, Adrian Bolt, Malcolm Seargent, Barenboim, Solti, and many many others - but this guy is lively, passionate, committed, fun, and proficient. I hope he does well and that his ego - which is big - doesn't get in the way.
Friday, October 28, 2005
Bits and Pieces
The Bush Bubble Burst
George Bush is in trouble. It looks like the person widely known as "The President's Brain" - Karl Rove - may well be indicted over the leaking of a CIA agents name to the press. We will know later today. Then there is the cafuffle over the appointment of an Associate Justice to the Supreme Court, with Bush's favoured nominee withdrawing yesterday so as to stem the bleeding over her nomination. Then there is the continued fall out from the Katrina and Wilma hurricanes, where Bush's patronage appointees at FEMA and Homeland Security were clearly not up to the job.All in all, a bad time for the big guy. Can't say I am surprised.
(Well, got that wrong! While Karl Rove hasn't yet been indicted, Scooter - the Vice President's Chief of Staff has and has done the right thing and resigned. )
Leonardo de Caprio (LdC) and Global Warming
Oprah had LdC on last night to discuss global warming - something "he has been concerned with for a long time". She also showed her continued sense of inferiority when she introduced a Professor from Stanford "he has a big brain!" - really. She showed her ignorance, yet again, of how the world works and her naive approach to most things was at its worst. Her solution is to change the light bulbs in the home to the long lasting, eco-friendly bulbs. You may also want to consider buying a hybrid car ("as long it has room for my five dogs and burberry luggage!"). She is really starting to get on my nerves. If she didn't have interesting guests - like George Cluny today and Michael Jordan earlier this week - I wouldn’t bother watching.
Writing
My article on aboriginal issues - see below - which was published on Monday in the Edmonton Journal (a fine newspaper) has so far secured over 100 emails in support of my approach to this issue - which I refer to as Canada's shame. The shame got worse for me this week when it was revealed that over 100 reserves are forced to boil water for any use, since it is contaminated with e-coli. One reserve in northern Ontario is to be relocated, since the contamination is so bad that it is causing disease amongst almost half of the Indian band. It is a national disgrace.
Music
Now that my daughter in law is on board following the wedding, we have been exploring the music of Portugal, especially Fado. This is what the wikipedia has to say about Fado:
As I write this, I am listening to Mariza sing O Silencio da Guitara - lovely, lively and yet sad. Mariza was in Edmonton recently at a sell out concert. She is probably the natural successor to Amalia Rodrigues - a wonderful singer, who died October 6th 1999 at the age of 79.
Can Women Cook ?
Gordon Ramsey, the three star world leading Chef and host of Hell's Kitchen (the US version of which was simply wonderful television - I'll never forget Dewberry or some of Gordon's one liners..like to a customer who was complaining "Rght, got it, now go back and play with one or two of those chins of yours"), has suggested that most British women simply can't cook. He's right.
Its actually worse than this. Most people, whatever their gender, can't cook. They don't like to, generally don't know how to and find it easier either to eat out or get a ready meal. In the UK, ready meals of quality are easy to find - Tesco has over 350 choices of such meals.
When Delia Smith, the real domestic godess and owner of Norwich City football club, started a series by explaining where eggs came from and how to cook them - boil, scramble, poach, fry - her fellow chefs went ape. Demeaning, they said. Well no. She did this because extensive researcj suggested that most people had no idea.
I watched Jamie Oliver's shows about school meals in the UK. When he held up various veg and asked the kids to name them, they had no idea. Which means that their parents had no idea either. Tragic.
So, don't shoot the messenger. Start cooking!
George Bush is in trouble. It looks like the person widely known as "The President's Brain" - Karl Rove - may well be indicted over the leaking of a CIA agents name to the press. We will know later today. Then there is the cafuffle over the appointment of an Associate Justice to the Supreme Court, with Bush's favoured nominee withdrawing yesterday so as to stem the bleeding over her nomination. Then there is the continued fall out from the Katrina and Wilma hurricanes, where Bush's patronage appointees at FEMA and Homeland Security were clearly not up to the job.All in all, a bad time for the big guy. Can't say I am surprised.
(Well, got that wrong! While Karl Rove hasn't yet been indicted, Scooter - the Vice President's Chief of Staff has and has done the right thing and resigned. )
Leonardo de Caprio (LdC) and Global Warming
Oprah had LdC on last night to discuss global warming - something "he has been concerned with for a long time". She also showed her continued sense of inferiority when she introduced a Professor from Stanford "he has a big brain!" - really. She showed her ignorance, yet again, of how the world works and her naive approach to most things was at its worst. Her solution is to change the light bulbs in the home to the long lasting, eco-friendly bulbs. You may also want to consider buying a hybrid car ("as long it has room for my five dogs and burberry luggage!"). She is really starting to get on my nerves. If she didn't have interesting guests - like George Cluny today and Michael Jordan earlier this week - I wouldn’t bother watching.
Writing
My article on aboriginal issues - see below - which was published on Monday in the Edmonton Journal (a fine newspaper) has so far secured over 100 emails in support of my approach to this issue - which I refer to as Canada's shame. The shame got worse for me this week when it was revealed that over 100 reserves are forced to boil water for any use, since it is contaminated with e-coli. One reserve in northern Ontario is to be relocated, since the contamination is so bad that it is causing disease amongst almost half of the Indian band. It is a national disgrace.
Music
Now that my daughter in law is on board following the wedding, we have been exploring the music of Portugal, especially Fado. This is what the wikipedia has to say about Fado:
Fado is a type of folk music which most likely originated in the 1820s in Portugal.
It is characterized by mournful tunes and lyrics, often about the sea or the
life of the poor. The music is usually linked to the Portuguese word saudade (a
word with no accurate equivalent in English; being a type of longing, it conveys
a complex mixture of sadness, pain, nostalgia, happiness and love), and its
origins are probably from a mixture of African slave rhythms with traditional
music of Portuguese sailors, with Arabic influence. Some theories say it was
derived from Brazilian music styles like Lundum and Modinha.There are two varieties of Fado: Lisbon and Coimbra. The Lisbon styleis the popular, while the Coimbra's is the refined style; both are seen asethnic music for sophisticated audience. The first great fado singer that isstill known was Maria Severa, living in the first half of the 19th century. Hertype of fado is today called "Lisbon's fado".In the 1920s and 1930s, a series of fado de Coimbra (a highly stylized version born in Coimbra) recordings were very popular.
Guitarists Carlos Paredes and his father Artur Paredes, were the masters and the great pioneers of this genre and the Portuguese guitar. Amália Rodrigues introduced the most well-known variety of fado. After her disappearance, a new wave of performers added stylistic changes andbrought more international popularity to the traditional Portuguese music. Thereare also some successful experiences with fado, namely mixing it with electronic music. Mariza and Mísia brought with them a new look to the traditionalsong, occasionally reviving 19th century fado. While Dulce
Pontes mixed it with popular and traditional Portuguese music. Madredeus
and Cristina Branco added with new instruments and themes - all that they kept
from the original Fado is its looks and the concept of "saudade". All varieties
of Fado are sorrowful; although some can also be joyful songs.
As I write this, I am listening to Mariza sing O Silencio da Guitara - lovely, lively and yet sad. Mariza was in Edmonton recently at a sell out concert. She is probably the natural successor to Amalia Rodrigues - a wonderful singer, who died October 6th 1999 at the age of 79.
Can Women Cook ?
Gordon Ramsey, the three star world leading Chef and host of Hell's Kitchen (the US version of which was simply wonderful television - I'll never forget Dewberry or some of Gordon's one liners..like to a customer who was complaining "Rght, got it, now go back and play with one or two of those chins of yours"), has suggested that most British women simply can't cook. He's right.
Its actually worse than this. Most people, whatever their gender, can't cook. They don't like to, generally don't know how to and find it easier either to eat out or get a ready meal. In the UK, ready meals of quality are easy to find - Tesco has over 350 choices of such meals.
When Delia Smith, the real domestic godess and owner of Norwich City football club, started a series by explaining where eggs came from and how to cook them - boil, scramble, poach, fry - her fellow chefs went ape. Demeaning, they said. Well no. She did this because extensive researcj suggested that most people had no idea.
I watched Jamie Oliver's shows about school meals in the UK. When he held up various veg and asked the kids to name them, they had no idea. Which means that their parents had no idea either. Tragic.
So, don't shoot the messenger. Start cooking!
Thursday, October 27, 2005
Whatever Happened to Customer Service ?
A comedian once quipped that the Air Canada vision statement was “we’re not happy ‘till you’re not happy!”. Now its not so funny. Not only is customer service on this airline poor, its poor almost everywhere you go.
The worst is The Bay. I came up with the idea of a new reality show where you win prizes if you can find a shop assistant. Really big prizes go to those who can find a shop assistant who can actually help you. I walked out in disgust the other day when, after asking to see some specific sheets for a wedding gift, I was taken to look at shirts instead.
Then there is the public service. My son has applied for several jobs at Capital Health and has yet to receive such a thing as an acknowledgement, a phone call or any recognition of his application at all. The arrogance of this employer is astounding. Its no wonder there is a shortage of health care professionals – my son is off to the US to work.
Some places you simply know are going to be dreadful. I booked online for my car to be serviced and turned up at the time I had booked. They had no idea I was scheduled to be there. When I explained that I had booked on the computer, they all laughed – “we don’t trust computers!”, my agent said. Shame that my car has three of them on board.
Then there are restaurants – where the key differentiation between one place and another is service. I have been told that I shouldn’t drink white wine with steak – “it’s not right” – and I have had the worst experiencing of all in a well known steakhouse.
I have had wonderful service at some places – Sunterra Markets, Home Outfitters (ironically owned by The Hudson’s Bay Company), and Liquor Select – and the sense of achievement one feels when it happens is out of all proportion to the service itself. It’s just the fact of getting good service that blows me away.
The worst is The Bay. I came up with the idea of a new reality show where you win prizes if you can find a shop assistant. Really big prizes go to those who can find a shop assistant who can actually help you. I walked out in disgust the other day when, after asking to see some specific sheets for a wedding gift, I was taken to look at shirts instead.
Then there is the public service. My son has applied for several jobs at Capital Health and has yet to receive such a thing as an acknowledgement, a phone call or any recognition of his application at all. The arrogance of this employer is astounding. Its no wonder there is a shortage of health care professionals – my son is off to the US to work.
Some places you simply know are going to be dreadful. I booked online for my car to be serviced and turned up at the time I had booked. They had no idea I was scheduled to be there. When I explained that I had booked on the computer, they all laughed – “we don’t trust computers!”, my agent said. Shame that my car has three of them on board.
Then there are restaurants – where the key differentiation between one place and another is service. I have been told that I shouldn’t drink white wine with steak – “it’s not right” – and I have had the worst experiencing of all in a well known steakhouse.
I have had wonderful service at some places – Sunterra Markets, Home Outfitters (ironically owned by The Hudson’s Bay Company), and Liquor Select – and the sense of achievement one feels when it happens is out of all proportion to the service itself. It’s just the fact of getting good service that blows me away.
UK WORSE DEBT THAN AFRICA + SOUTH AMERICA PUT TOGETHER
I read today that individuals in Britain owed more than £1,100 billion, exceeding the debts of Africa and South America put together. Put this another way, apart from the debts and deficits of the British government, the debts owed by individuals and families in Britain now exceed the debts that Sir Bob Geldof and Bono want written off.
This is leading to increases in suicide rates, repossession of homes and dramatic family crises. In London, the rate of repossession has increased 81% in one year – for the country as a whole, the increase is 66%. In the first half of this year 54,344 repossession actions were entered into the court system, 32,366 orders were made and 4,640 repossessions took place. By the end of the year, 10,000 houses will have been repossessed by mortgage lenders.
A key part of the problem is the ready access to credit cards. There are some 66 million credit cards in use in Britain - five times the European average and more than one for each British resident – man, woman and child.
Consumer debt was fuelled by low interest rates and easy access to credit and loans. Gross mortgage lending by UK banks added up to £17.8bn in September, the highest monthly total since July 2004, and almost 6% more than in August and 9.3% up on September last year. The average loan taken out for a house purchase remained unchanged over the month, at £130,500. This compares with an average of £111,300 recorded 12 months earlier. Net lending - the total advanced minus repayments and redemptions - rose by £4.9bn, compared with £4.4bn in August 2005 and September 2004. This is the biggest monthly increase so far this year and above the £4.4bn average of the previous six months.
Turning to credit cards, New borrowing on credit cards totaled £7.4bn, some 8% less than in August. However, repayments were also lower, and when seasonally adjusted the increase in net lending over the month, a figure of £108m, was above the recent average of £75m. Net lending on personal loans and overdrafts increased by £0.4bn over the month, after rising by £0.7bn in August. While credit card companies see this as a slowing down of consumer credit, any objective observer has to see this as continuing to be high rate of credit card use.
The chickens are coming home to roost. Personal bankruptcy is also on the rise in the UK is also rising – in the first quarter of 2005 it was 28% higher than in 2004 with 13,229 individuals declaring bankruptcy. For the year, it is anticipated that there will be some 75,000 individuals using this means to “sort out” their finances.
It gets worse. British firms are £130bn short of the figure they need to finance their workers' pensions, according to a new report. A study by the Association of Consulting Actuaries (ACA) published earlier this month showed that 88% of defined benefit schemes - those which offer a guaranteed payout to employees - do not have enough money to cover their liabilities. The average funding gap was 15%, suggesting that across the UK businesses need an extra £130bn to pay the pensions they have promised their workers.
The key rates = personal bankruptcy and repossession – are clear indicators of an economy in trouble. When we add growing signs of stagflation (a slowing and stagnant economy, low levels of R&D investment and growing Government debt coupled with inflation) and the pension scandal, then the British Government is in trouble.
There are other signs that Gordon Brown, Britain’s finance minister, will have to do something. The OECD reports that UK Government revenues are £10b lower than anticipated – the equivalent of $0.03p in new income taxes. Worse, Brown had estimated that GDP growth in the UK would be around 3% when it will be nearer 1.7%.
Other signs are there too. The quarterly industrial trends survey by the CBI found that factory orders for domestic and export markets fell faster than expected in the last three months. A third of the 700 firms surveyed said the volume of new orders fell in the third quarter – suggesting job losses in manufacturing alone of 25,000 or more before Xmas – 21,000 have already gone in the last three months.
So, if you are an investor who takes a long view, look at the UK right now and watch for “pickings”. If you live in the UK, get your own money arrangements in order and get out of any debt you can as fast as you can, since interest rates will continue to rise. If you are a British government Minister, worry like hell. Once the economy slips, so does power.
This is leading to increases in suicide rates, repossession of homes and dramatic family crises. In London, the rate of repossession has increased 81% in one year – for the country as a whole, the increase is 66%. In the first half of this year 54,344 repossession actions were entered into the court system, 32,366 orders were made and 4,640 repossessions took place. By the end of the year, 10,000 houses will have been repossessed by mortgage lenders.
A key part of the problem is the ready access to credit cards. There are some 66 million credit cards in use in Britain - five times the European average and more than one for each British resident – man, woman and child.
Consumer debt was fuelled by low interest rates and easy access to credit and loans. Gross mortgage lending by UK banks added up to £17.8bn in September, the highest monthly total since July 2004, and almost 6% more than in August and 9.3% up on September last year. The average loan taken out for a house purchase remained unchanged over the month, at £130,500. This compares with an average of £111,300 recorded 12 months earlier. Net lending - the total advanced minus repayments and redemptions - rose by £4.9bn, compared with £4.4bn in August 2005 and September 2004. This is the biggest monthly increase so far this year and above the £4.4bn average of the previous six months.
Turning to credit cards, New borrowing on credit cards totaled £7.4bn, some 8% less than in August. However, repayments were also lower, and when seasonally adjusted the increase in net lending over the month, a figure of £108m, was above the recent average of £75m. Net lending on personal loans and overdrafts increased by £0.4bn over the month, after rising by £0.7bn in August. While credit card companies see this as a slowing down of consumer credit, any objective observer has to see this as continuing to be high rate of credit card use.
The chickens are coming home to roost. Personal bankruptcy is also on the rise in the UK is also rising – in the first quarter of 2005 it was 28% higher than in 2004 with 13,229 individuals declaring bankruptcy. For the year, it is anticipated that there will be some 75,000 individuals using this means to “sort out” their finances.
It gets worse. British firms are £130bn short of the figure they need to finance their workers' pensions, according to a new report. A study by the Association of Consulting Actuaries (ACA) published earlier this month showed that 88% of defined benefit schemes - those which offer a guaranteed payout to employees - do not have enough money to cover their liabilities. The average funding gap was 15%, suggesting that across the UK businesses need an extra £130bn to pay the pensions they have promised their workers.
The key rates = personal bankruptcy and repossession – are clear indicators of an economy in trouble. When we add growing signs of stagflation (a slowing and stagnant economy, low levels of R&D investment and growing Government debt coupled with inflation) and the pension scandal, then the British Government is in trouble.
There are other signs that Gordon Brown, Britain’s finance minister, will have to do something. The OECD reports that UK Government revenues are £10b lower than anticipated – the equivalent of $0.03p in new income taxes. Worse, Brown had estimated that GDP growth in the UK would be around 3% when it will be nearer 1.7%.
Other signs are there too. The quarterly industrial trends survey by the CBI found that factory orders for domestic and export markets fell faster than expected in the last three months. A third of the 700 firms surveyed said the volume of new orders fell in the third quarter – suggesting job losses in manufacturing alone of 25,000 or more before Xmas – 21,000 have already gone in the last three months.
So, if you are an investor who takes a long view, look at the UK right now and watch for “pickings”. If you live in the UK, get your own money arrangements in order and get out of any debt you can as fast as you can, since interest rates will continue to rise. If you are a British government Minister, worry like hell. Once the economy slips, so does power.
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
Makes You Think Eh ?
Anne Robinson on Weakest Link: What hot drink is an anagram of the word EAT ?
Contestant: Hot Chocolate ?
or
"You know, it really doesn't matter what the media write as long as you've got a young and beutiful piece of ass!" Donald Trump
Dont know what Oprah is up to. Another dreadful show last night - one of several so far in this season. Lets hope she does better with Michael Jordan tonight. Dr Phil is also having to crank it up a bit...seems like these two shows are tired..
Monday, October 24, 2005
THE LATEST NEWS (via The Two Ronnies)
The Metropolitan Police today denied that prisoners in their custody are excessively pampered. This follows yesterday's report that a man was hustled out of New Scotland Yard with an electric blanket over his head.
And we've just heard that a juggernaut of onions has shed its load all over the M-1. Motorists are advised to find a hard shoulder to cry on.
After a series of crimes in the Glasgow area, Chief Inspector McTavish has announced that he's looking for a man with one eye. If he doesn't find him, he's going to use both eyes.
The perfect crime was committed last night, when thieves broke into Scotland Yard and stole all the toilets. Police say they have absolutely nothing to go on.
And we've just heard that in the English Channel, a ship carrying red paint has collided with a ship carrying purple paint. It is believed that both crews have been marooned.
Tonight, I shall be having a word with a man who goes in for meditation, because he thinks it's better than sitting around doing nothing. And also we'll be talking to a car designer who's crossed Toyota with Quasimodo and come up with The Hatchback of Notre Dame.
We had hoped to have been bringing you Arthur the Human Chameleon, but this afternoon, he crawled across a tartan rug and died of exhaustion.
But first, the news: The House of Commons was sealed off today after police chased an escaped lunatic through the front door during Prime Minister's question time. A spokesman at Scotland Yard said it was like looking for a needle in a haystack.
West Mercia police announced tonight that they wish to interview a man wearing high heels and frilly knickers, but the Chief Constable said they must wear their normal uniforms.
Many old music hall fans were present at the funeral today of Fred "Chuckles" Jenkins, Britain's oldest and unfunniest comedian. In tribute, the vicar read out one of Fred's jokes, and the congregation had two minutes silence.
Latest on the bullion robbery: At Wansforth Police Station, a man who's as deaf as a post, and doesn't speak English, with a terrible stutter, bad breath and squeaky shoes, is not helping the police with their inquiries one little bit.
At London's Heathrow, senior customs officer Seaforth Mumbly retired today. He shook hands with passengers passing through the customs, and confiscated a gold watch for himself.
There was a fire at the main Inland Revenue office in London today, but it was put out before any serious good was done.
The search for the man who terrorizes nudist camps with a bacon slicer goes on. Inspector Lemuel Jones had a tip-off this morning, but hopes to be back on duty tomorrow.
Finally, it was revealed in a government survey published today that the Prime Minister is doing the work of two men. Laurel and Hardy.
There's only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who don't!
And we've just heard that a juggernaut of onions has shed its load all over the M-1. Motorists are advised to find a hard shoulder to cry on.
After a series of crimes in the Glasgow area, Chief Inspector McTavish has announced that he's looking for a man with one eye. If he doesn't find him, he's going to use both eyes.
The perfect crime was committed last night, when thieves broke into Scotland Yard and stole all the toilets. Police say they have absolutely nothing to go on.
And we've just heard that in the English Channel, a ship carrying red paint has collided with a ship carrying purple paint. It is believed that both crews have been marooned.
Tonight, I shall be having a word with a man who goes in for meditation, because he thinks it's better than sitting around doing nothing. And also we'll be talking to a car designer who's crossed Toyota with Quasimodo and come up with The Hatchback of Notre Dame.
We had hoped to have been bringing you Arthur the Human Chameleon, but this afternoon, he crawled across a tartan rug and died of exhaustion.
But first, the news: The House of Commons was sealed off today after police chased an escaped lunatic through the front door during Prime Minister's question time. A spokesman at Scotland Yard said it was like looking for a needle in a haystack.
West Mercia police announced tonight that they wish to interview a man wearing high heels and frilly knickers, but the Chief Constable said they must wear their normal uniforms.
Many old music hall fans were present at the funeral today of Fred "Chuckles" Jenkins, Britain's oldest and unfunniest comedian. In tribute, the vicar read out one of Fred's jokes, and the congregation had two minutes silence.
Latest on the bullion robbery: At Wansforth Police Station, a man who's as deaf as a post, and doesn't speak English, with a terrible stutter, bad breath and squeaky shoes, is not helping the police with their inquiries one little bit.
At London's Heathrow, senior customs officer Seaforth Mumbly retired today. He shook hands with passengers passing through the customs, and confiscated a gold watch for himself.
There was a fire at the main Inland Revenue office in London today, but it was put out before any serious good was done.
The search for the man who terrorizes nudist camps with a bacon slicer goes on. Inspector Lemuel Jones had a tip-off this morning, but hopes to be back on duty tomorrow.
Finally, it was revealed in a government survey published today that the Prime Minister is doing the work of two men. Laurel and Hardy.
There's only 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary, and those who don't!
Predictable...
On 30th September, using bookie tips from PaddyPower.com (see the novelty betting section at http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_category&category=SPECIALS ) I suggested that Bush would chose Ben Barnanke as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, replacing Alan Greenspan, who will end his eighteen year tenure in January 2006. Not only did I predict this, I also predicted that Cardinal Ratzinger would be the Pope even before the conclave began. So what next...
Well, there is the leadership of the British conservative party, which is a race between David Davis (old hand, thug) and David Cameron (the Blair of the centre right). The vote is amongst all of the members of the party - yes, democracy has broken out in the Tory party - and the winner will be David Cameron. Paddpower are offering 1-12 on Cameron and 11-1 on Davis, so that's pretty clear.
Then there is the question of who will succeed Chirac as President of France (yes, he cant go on for ever). The two front runners at this stage are Dominique de Villipen (currently Prime Minister, despite never having been elected to anything and formerly the French Minister at the UN during the security council votes on Iraq) and Nicolas Sarkozy - odds on favourite. He is currently the Minister of the Interior in France and very popular. de Villipen is aloof and aristocratic - wheras Sarkozy is a man of the people. He will win. (Interestingly, last week when Chancellor Merkel of Germany visited France she saw both Chirac and Sarkozy).
The succession talk in France gained new momentum after Chirac had a stroke recently, which left him with impaired vision (nothing new for a President of France - in fact, I thought it was a requirement for the position). Formally, the election is in 2007 and Chirac could in fact be a candidate.
One other bet you may want to consider, when Gordon Brown succeeds Tony Blair in the UK, who will be his Deputy ? The money is currently going on David Blunkett, but my read is that his star is falling and only if Brown replaces Blair soon will this fly. Better to bet on Jack Straw as a steadier pair of hands. Straw has been Foreign Secretary for some time, but before that he was Home Secretary. Brown also has a tendency to be politically correct (its a shame, but there it is) and could feel that he would gain votes if he chose a woman - so watch carefully the career of Harriet Harman. Interestingly, I worked closely with Straw when he was President of the National Union of Students (NUS) and I was President of the Welsh Students Union. Then I worked with Harriet when she was with National Council of Civil Liberties and I was involved with a network organization in Wales. Peter Hain (who was at a small dinner party with Queen Juliana and ten other people including me) is also a runner here. My money's on Jack Straw.
Enough of the future..
Well, there is the leadership of the British conservative party, which is a race between David Davis (old hand, thug) and David Cameron (the Blair of the centre right). The vote is amongst all of the members of the party - yes, democracy has broken out in the Tory party - and the winner will be David Cameron. Paddpower are offering 1-12 on Cameron and 11-1 on Davis, so that's pretty clear.
Then there is the question of who will succeed Chirac as President of France (yes, he cant go on for ever). The two front runners at this stage are Dominique de Villipen (currently Prime Minister, despite never having been elected to anything and formerly the French Minister at the UN during the security council votes on Iraq) and Nicolas Sarkozy - odds on favourite. He is currently the Minister of the Interior in France and very popular. de Villipen is aloof and aristocratic - wheras Sarkozy is a man of the people. He will win. (Interestingly, last week when Chancellor Merkel of Germany visited France she saw both Chirac and Sarkozy).
The succession talk in France gained new momentum after Chirac had a stroke recently, which left him with impaired vision (nothing new for a President of France - in fact, I thought it was a requirement for the position). Formally, the election is in 2007 and Chirac could in fact be a candidate.
One other bet you may want to consider, when Gordon Brown succeeds Tony Blair in the UK, who will be his Deputy ? The money is currently going on David Blunkett, but my read is that his star is falling and only if Brown replaces Blair soon will this fly. Better to bet on Jack Straw as a steadier pair of hands. Straw has been Foreign Secretary for some time, but before that he was Home Secretary. Brown also has a tendency to be politically correct (its a shame, but there it is) and could feel that he would gain votes if he chose a woman - so watch carefully the career of Harriet Harman. Interestingly, I worked closely with Straw when he was President of the National Union of Students (NUS) and I was President of the Welsh Students Union. Then I worked with Harriet when she was with National Council of Civil Liberties and I was involved with a network organization in Wales. Peter Hain (who was at a small dinner party with Queen Juliana and ten other people including me) is also a runner here. My money's on Jack Straw.
Enough of the future..
Sunday, October 23, 2005
That Was the Week That Was
It has been an interesting week from a cultural and enrichment point of view.
First, the positive cultural experiences. Thursday night was the ballet – the Alberta ballet’s performance of Prokofiev’s Romeo and Juliet with the Edmonton Symphony. You knew things were going to be good when the set was revealed and the dancers arrived on stage in simply stunning costumes – great performances by all, including the symphony. I was hooked. This was only my second time at the ballet – the first time was the Royal Ballet at Covent Garden – I will definitely go again.
Then last night (Saturday) it was Convocation Hall for the Turtle Island String Quartet. Now I have followed these guys for some time – David Balakrishnan and Mark Summer have been there since the start, while Evan Price and Mad Tolling are newer. All were excellent in their jazz fusion string quartet. Lots of new stuff, though they did play Tremors from their 1990 Windham Hill album, which I like a lot.
In between we watched a “gluppy” film – The Day After Tomorrow (2004). This pseudo-rubbish-science fiction movie based on the idea of sudden and catastrophic climate change due to global warming (itself an absurd idea) just got sillier and sillier as the film went on. What started off showing promise – it has amongst its cast Dennis Quaid, Ian Holm and Sela Ward and was directed by Roland Emmerich (Stargate, Universal Soldier, Independence Day). Full of factual errors and sloppy work, this is a picture to avoid.
The rest of the week was an intellectual treat. The low point was an Alberta Cabinet Minister who, when asked about water conservation, said that we should play close attention to “Israel and the Israelites”, since they are good at this. At least he knows his bible. A second low point was a speech from the Premier of Alberta, Ralph Klein. He gave it to an audience of 200 persons, mostly young leaders from across Canada, while chewing gum.
The high point was a speech and discussion with Jeffrey Simpson, columnist with the Globe and Mail. Not only was he insightful, he was also crystal clear – just like his columns. He inspired many at the table I was at. Another star was Lorne Calvert, Premier of Saskatchewan (“the most difficult Province to spell, but the easiest to draw” and "my Province is so flat, we can see the future coming!"). Finally, the young leaders themselves were an inspiration – thoughtful, persistent, creative, demanding – just what we need. Made me feel better about the future of Canada.
First, the positive cultural experiences. Thursday night was the ballet – the Alberta ballet’s performance of Prokofiev’s Romeo and Juliet with the Edmonton Symphony. You knew things were going to be good when the set was revealed and the dancers arrived on stage in simply stunning costumes – great performances by all, including the symphony. I was hooked. This was only my second time at the ballet – the first time was the Royal Ballet at Covent Garden – I will definitely go again.
Then last night (Saturday) it was Convocation Hall for the Turtle Island String Quartet. Now I have followed these guys for some time – David Balakrishnan and Mark Summer have been there since the start, while Evan Price and Mad Tolling are newer. All were excellent in their jazz fusion string quartet. Lots of new stuff, though they did play Tremors from their 1990 Windham Hill album, which I like a lot.
In between we watched a “gluppy” film – The Day After Tomorrow (2004). This pseudo-rubbish-science fiction movie based on the idea of sudden and catastrophic climate change due to global warming (itself an absurd idea) just got sillier and sillier as the film went on. What started off showing promise – it has amongst its cast Dennis Quaid, Ian Holm and Sela Ward and was directed by Roland Emmerich (Stargate, Universal Soldier, Independence Day). Full of factual errors and sloppy work, this is a picture to avoid.
The rest of the week was an intellectual treat. The low point was an Alberta Cabinet Minister who, when asked about water conservation, said that we should play close attention to “Israel and the Israelites”, since they are good at this. At least he knows his bible. A second low point was a speech from the Premier of Alberta, Ralph Klein. He gave it to an audience of 200 persons, mostly young leaders from across Canada, while chewing gum.
The high point was a speech and discussion with Jeffrey Simpson, columnist with the Globe and Mail. Not only was he insightful, he was also crystal clear – just like his columns. He inspired many at the table I was at. Another star was Lorne Calvert, Premier of Saskatchewan (“the most difficult Province to spell, but the easiest to draw” and "my Province is so flat, we can see the future coming!"). Finally, the young leaders themselves were an inspiration – thoughtful, persistent, creative, demanding – just what we need. Made me feel better about the future of Canada.
Saturday, October 22, 2005
A TEST FOR ALBERTA
This blog appeared as an aritcle in the Edmonton Journal on 24th October 2005:
The Government of Alberta is spending our surplus. Some spending decisions make sense – putting money into trust for research and development, increasing access to Universities and Colleges, supporting the further expansion of health care services, for example – and some don’t. The $400 cheques we will each get make little sense – an expensive gesture, rooted in a misunderstanding of twenty first century Albertan psyche. It is a very nineteenth century gesture.
What no one is talking about is the need to use this unique opportunity to tackle Canada’s shame: our treatment of aboriginal people’s. They are the fastest growing demographic group in Alberta, they will be a major factor in the development of the Alberta economy for the first half of the present century and they have significant needs.
Four in particular are clear. First, they need better arrangements for self government. They need municipal government like structure, responsibility and resourcing on reserves. This would help promote effective self government and improve accountability. Partnering with the Federal Government and the aboriginal communities to create a more effective governance for reserves and for aboriginal communities within our urban areas is a valid call on our surplus.
Second, we need to be imaginative and creative about the education of aboriginal youth. Aboriginal youth do poorly at school, take few places in post secondary education and have high failure rates. Using learning circles, which involve elders as well as teachers, and a strong support network, aboriginal youth can be successful and can achieve great things. Though most success is seen in areas such as social work, education and trades work in the natural resource sector, we need to shift the focus of education to technology intensive industries – the future of work. Over three quarters of all future jobs will require some post-secondary education for entry: spending significant funds supporting innovative aboriginal education is a valid call on our surplus.
Third, aboriginal health is poor. Whatever significant health condition you study – diabetes, heart disease, obesity – aboriginal people are likely to have twice or three times the incidence of the condition as their non-aboriginal counterparts. Poverty and a lack of education are the major causes. Investing in strategies that will dramatically improve the health of our aboriginal people is a valid call on our surplus and spending on prevention will lower future health care costs.
Finally, we need to do more to honour our side of our treaty obligations. A major concern of aboriginal people is the earth and what we are doing to it. Dedicating resources to sustainable environmental programs – restoring spoiled lands, doing more to ensure our clean water supply, protecting precious species – and doing so in partnership with our aboriginal leaders makes sense. Spending some of the surplus on specific “showcase” projects makes sense.
We look to significant increases in immigration to deal with a significant shortage of labour in Alberta, yet we neglect the development of skills and competences of our own aboriginal people. While it will take imagination, determination and resources to dramatically change the conditions of the aboriginal people of Alberta, it is something we should do to show the rest of Canada what a responsible, imaginative and effective twenty first century Government can do. It will also take courage.
It is a test of a visionary government that they tackle the tough issues as well as grasp at the low hanging political fruit. Watch carefully, since the test of how visionary our Alberta government really is will be what it does with the issues facing aboriginal people.
The Government of Alberta is spending our surplus. Some spending decisions make sense – putting money into trust for research and development, increasing access to Universities and Colleges, supporting the further expansion of health care services, for example – and some don’t. The $400 cheques we will each get make little sense – an expensive gesture, rooted in a misunderstanding of twenty first century Albertan psyche. It is a very nineteenth century gesture.
What no one is talking about is the need to use this unique opportunity to tackle Canada’s shame: our treatment of aboriginal people’s. They are the fastest growing demographic group in Alberta, they will be a major factor in the development of the Alberta economy for the first half of the present century and they have significant needs.
Four in particular are clear. First, they need better arrangements for self government. They need municipal government like structure, responsibility and resourcing on reserves. This would help promote effective self government and improve accountability. Partnering with the Federal Government and the aboriginal communities to create a more effective governance for reserves and for aboriginal communities within our urban areas is a valid call on our surplus.
Second, we need to be imaginative and creative about the education of aboriginal youth. Aboriginal youth do poorly at school, take few places in post secondary education and have high failure rates. Using learning circles, which involve elders as well as teachers, and a strong support network, aboriginal youth can be successful and can achieve great things. Though most success is seen in areas such as social work, education and trades work in the natural resource sector, we need to shift the focus of education to technology intensive industries – the future of work. Over three quarters of all future jobs will require some post-secondary education for entry: spending significant funds supporting innovative aboriginal education is a valid call on our surplus.
Third, aboriginal health is poor. Whatever significant health condition you study – diabetes, heart disease, obesity – aboriginal people are likely to have twice or three times the incidence of the condition as their non-aboriginal counterparts. Poverty and a lack of education are the major causes. Investing in strategies that will dramatically improve the health of our aboriginal people is a valid call on our surplus and spending on prevention will lower future health care costs.
Finally, we need to do more to honour our side of our treaty obligations. A major concern of aboriginal people is the earth and what we are doing to it. Dedicating resources to sustainable environmental programs – restoring spoiled lands, doing more to ensure our clean water supply, protecting precious species – and doing so in partnership with our aboriginal leaders makes sense. Spending some of the surplus on specific “showcase” projects makes sense.
We look to significant increases in immigration to deal with a significant shortage of labour in Alberta, yet we neglect the development of skills and competences of our own aboriginal people. While it will take imagination, determination and resources to dramatically change the conditions of the aboriginal people of Alberta, it is something we should do to show the rest of Canada what a responsible, imaginative and effective twenty first century Government can do. It will also take courage.
It is a test of a visionary government that they tackle the tough issues as well as grasp at the low hanging political fruit. Watch carefully, since the test of how visionary our Alberta government really is will be what it does with the issues facing aboriginal people.
Thursday, October 13, 2005
The Happy Couple
The happy couple - this is one of their engagement photo's. When they become available, wedding photographs will appear here too... 
Those innovative Japanese are at it again. This time, a device for the lonely woman..a mans arm. Whatever next...
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MORE CULTURE
Another disappointing Sean Penn movie – The Interpreter (with Nicole Kidman). It lacked real drama, felt very contrived and Sean Penn should just act not think about acting all of the time (this method acting gets in the way)
A much better movie from Kevin Spacey looking at the life of Bobby Darin – Beyond the Sea. Spacey presents a convincing character, sings well and brigs to life someone I merely knew vaguely about. Darin died in 1973, which is remarkable since his doctors thought he would die at 15 or so (which would have been in 1954. He married Sandra Dee, the actress, who has this great line in the movie:
Bobby Darin: Kissing Troy Donahue is not acting.
Sandra Dee: Well, then, you should try it.
Spacey’s performance won a Golden Globe nomination and deservedly. He also co-wrote the piece, which has an intriguing use of a young Bobby Darin.
Harold Pinter wins Nobel prize for literature, it is announced. I suppose this is a good thing, though I prefer Alan Bennett (who published a new and, according to the critics, excellent new book last week – Untold Stories). Pinter’s work is masterly, yet repetitive. But he is a powerful playwrite and activist and his work did have a significant impact on the theatre. He also has cancer, which makes him frail and I guess the Nobel committee honoured him for his work “just in time”.
A much better movie from Kevin Spacey looking at the life of Bobby Darin – Beyond the Sea. Spacey presents a convincing character, sings well and brigs to life someone I merely knew vaguely about. Darin died in 1973, which is remarkable since his doctors thought he would die at 15 or so (which would have been in 1954. He married Sandra Dee, the actress, who has this great line in the movie:
Bobby Darin: Kissing Troy Donahue is not acting.
Sandra Dee: Well, then, you should try it.
Spacey’s performance won a Golden Globe nomination and deservedly. He also co-wrote the piece, which has an intriguing use of a young Bobby Darin.
Harold Pinter wins Nobel prize for literature, it is announced. I suppose this is a good thing, though I prefer Alan Bennett (who published a new and, according to the critics, excellent new book last week – Untold Stories). Pinter’s work is masterly, yet repetitive. But he is a powerful playwrite and activist and his work did have a significant impact on the theatre. He also has cancer, which makes him frail and I guess the Nobel committee honoured him for his work “just in time”.
WEDDING NEWS
The wedding all went splendidly, despite the fact that James had his car broken into while at the hairdresser on the morning of the wedding. But the event itself was wonderful. Lena looked, well, stunning and James and Lena looked great as a couple.
The dinner and dance at the Royal Glenora was a great party – dancing till after midnight, good food and nice wine (Tinhorn Creek Pinot and Grey Monk Pinot Blanc) – Don Simpson and Dawn Ralph won the prize for most elegant dancing and they were on the floor from start to close to finish.
Nice presents. Lovely weather. All in all, the kid did good.
Michelle (Glyn’s lady) caught the bouquet – surprise, surprise – and her brother gets married this week-end, so the pressure is on!
The dinner and dance at the Royal Glenora was a great party – dancing till after midnight, good food and nice wine (Tinhorn Creek Pinot and Grey Monk Pinot Blanc) – Don Simpson and Dawn Ralph won the prize for most elegant dancing and they were on the floor from start to close to finish.
Nice presents. Lovely weather. All in all, the kid did good.
Michelle (Glyn’s lady) caught the bouquet – surprise, surprise – and her brother gets married this week-end, so the pressure is on!
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
A BIT OF CULTURE
I have been watching the series ROME on HBO (via Movie Central – Channel 55 on Shaw Cable) and am enjoying the sheer spectacle. Good acting and dialogue, believable plots and a real attempt to capture the spirit of the time. Despite the fact that there are a lot of English actors in toga’s sounding very English – HBO co-produced this 12 part series with the BBC – its good television.
Several good movies recently. Last night was Head in the Clouds with Charlize Theron, Penelope Cruze, Stuart Townsend (who is very good indeed) and others in a compassionate story set in the time of the Spanish civil war and World War 2. (There is an interesting cameo appearance of Steven Berkoff here as the father of the hedonistic Gilda – a part he plays with exceptional quality). Then on to the Kenneth Brannagh movie about FDR and polio – Warm Springs. Brannagh is convincing and does not overplay this part (as he did with Shackelton in my view, though others obviously thought differently). He is now working on a film version of The Magic Flute.
While mentioning FDR, Conrad Black's detailed and thorough account of his life is extremely well written and is a must read for those of us convinced that we need to know more about our past and the people who influenced it. I would recommend it.
I would not recommend a novel by Faye Kellerman, which I just finished – Straight into Darkness. Set in 1920’s Munich before Hitler assumes power following his election as Chancellor, it’s a murder story without much substance. Poorly written, dull and very little real character development – relies heavily on stereotypes. This is my first Faye Kellerman novel and probably my last. On her web site she says of this novel that it is “my attempt to understand the inconceivable” – well, she didn’t make it.
I am now reading a little pot boiler which shows more promise - Iris Johansen's Final Target - about the treatment of the President of the US's daughter. Its glup, but enjoyable. She has written twenty five books (and so have I by the way), so knows how to do this. Memorable amongst these is The Killing Game and Firestorm.
My son Glyn (who is not getting married just yet) is "into" Lost, the Amazing Race and other stuff on TV. His lady, Michelle, wanted to catch up on the new season of Oprah, so we have been recording these. He is welcome to her. She gets more ranting each week...
Ah well, back to the serious business of writing fiction.
Welcoming a New Daughter (in Law and in Fact)
One thing we can say here is that Lena is very beuatiful - and smart, and tough and well, just a great lady...proud to have her as part of the family (officially after the wedding this Saturday, October 8th).
EXTREME IRONING
One fascinating sport that is growing very fast is extreme ironing (EI) - an endurance sport. Don't believe me? Read on...
The sport was started in Leicester, East Midlands, England by resident Phil Shaw in his back yard. EI, however, is no longer localized to Great Britain. In June 1999, Shaw, who goes by the EI nickname "Steam", embarked on an international tour to promote the sport. The stops included the United States of America, Fiji, New Zealand, Australia and Southern Africa. An encounter with German tourists in New Zealand led to the founding of the Extreme Ironing Bureau, and the German Extreme Ironing Section or GEIS.
In September of 2002, the first World Championship for the sport took place in Valley, Germany, near Munich. Organized by the German Extreme Ironing Section, the 1st Extreme Ironing World Championships were considered a success, drawing international media attention. Competitors from Austria, Australia, Croatia, Chile, Germany, the UK and other countries participated. The competition included eighty different teams from ten different countries.
Since the sport's invention, there has been the formation of an alleged breakaway group, Urban Housework. This has been considered unethical by some Extreme Ironers, as it alters the environment, disrupting the natural decay of plant matter to help re-fertilize the earth.
A documentary, appropriately entitled Extreme Ironing, was filmed for Britain's Channel 4 in December 2002.
In 2003 the Rowenta Trophy was won by a group from South Africa by ironing across a gorge at the Wolfberg Cracks. Later that year, Phil Shaw brought out a book, also entitled Extreme Ironing (ISBN 1843305550). The following year saw the release of a dvd titled Ironing Under the Sky, which was produced by Hot Under the Collar Productions.
In 2004, the EIB traveled to the US on the Rowenta Tour to recruit additional ironists and ironed at Mount Rushmore, New York, Boston and Devil's Tower. The tour culminated in an interview nation-wide on Good Morning America.
EI has spawned other sports. Downhill vacuuming involves riding a vacuum cleaner down a slope or incline, the objective being to make the fastest time down a given track. There is also suburban mop-jousting, inner city clothes drying and apocalypse dishwashing.
So, next time you start ironing a shirt or vacuuming the stairs or mopping the kitchen floor, think "now where would I really like to be doing this!"
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
Immigration
Canada's birth rate declined 25% from 1980 to 1998. Sometime before 2025, “home grown” population growth will reach zero. Canada's economic well being will need to be fueled by an influx of skilled and able new citizens, at rates unmatched since the 1950’s. More than 200,000 immigrants arrive annually, and the Prime Minister recently announced that this number will rise by 100,000 - almost three times the U.S. rate on a per capita basis. This year, according to Statistics Canada, the proportion of "visible minorities" will rise to 16% of the national population, up from 12% in 1996. By 2016 the number will rise to 20%.
Immigration will become a major social issue, as many in Britain, Holland and Germany will testify. While most think of Canada as being good at managing diversity and think that we have a strong history of multiculturalism, the growth of immigration will challenge these assumptions. Diversity and multiculturalism only work as policies when immigrants represent a small portion of the population. When immigrants become the major source of economic growth, as they will, then the encouragement of diversity becomes the root of cultural politics.
What happens is this. Because we cherish diversity, we encourage the creation of cultural enclaves. In these enclaves immigrations from the same nationality “cluster”, share a language and build a cultural community which is vibrant, rich and all embracing. Newspapers, events and activities are all arranged in the language and style of the “back home” community. Soon, schools are created which teach in the language and within the culture of “back home”. It becomes possible to live in a country without speaking its language or engaging its culture, because the “home” culture is strong enough to support fast growing cultural communities.
Efforts are then made to secure separate legal rights – rights to such things as Shiri’a courts upholding a version of Islamic law – and differential access to employment, through quota’s allocated to ethnic groups. Race relations laws are then strengthened to protect diversity. What this then leads to is a strengthening of other legal rights to protect diversity – employment law, for example. In going down this path we weaken integration.
Given that, by 2020, we will have two people working for each person who is retired – down from four at the present time – there will be strains on our public services, especially health and education. There will also be demands for improved economic performance, especially given our near zero levels of productivity growth. Immigrants will take command of these issues and challenge the assumptions on which our current public systems are based. They will also gain more control of our economic affairs.
It is this that is at the heart of the debate. We should encourage and do all things possible to encourage and enable integration and give less emphasis to diversity, while respecting racial differences. This requires us to develop and strengthen our cultural institutions, systematically promote a strong sense of Canadian history and culture and focus on the development of language skills.
Integration is not a popular policy to pursue – liberals tend to think of it as patronising and it can be used as a blunt instrument. But why should we encourage the development of Muslim schools or Indian communities to develop an educational system for Hindu children? We need to systematically pursue integration while respecting religious and racial differences. It is a difficult challenge, but an issue we had better grasp soon.
Immigration will become a major social issue, as many in Britain, Holland and Germany will testify. While most think of Canada as being good at managing diversity and think that we have a strong history of multiculturalism, the growth of immigration will challenge these assumptions. Diversity and multiculturalism only work as policies when immigrants represent a small portion of the population. When immigrants become the major source of economic growth, as they will, then the encouragement of diversity becomes the root of cultural politics.
What happens is this. Because we cherish diversity, we encourage the creation of cultural enclaves. In these enclaves immigrations from the same nationality “cluster”, share a language and build a cultural community which is vibrant, rich and all embracing. Newspapers, events and activities are all arranged in the language and style of the “back home” community. Soon, schools are created which teach in the language and within the culture of “back home”. It becomes possible to live in a country without speaking its language or engaging its culture, because the “home” culture is strong enough to support fast growing cultural communities.
Efforts are then made to secure separate legal rights – rights to such things as Shiri’a courts upholding a version of Islamic law – and differential access to employment, through quota’s allocated to ethnic groups. Race relations laws are then strengthened to protect diversity. What this then leads to is a strengthening of other legal rights to protect diversity – employment law, for example. In going down this path we weaken integration.
Given that, by 2020, we will have two people working for each person who is retired – down from four at the present time – there will be strains on our public services, especially health and education. There will also be demands for improved economic performance, especially given our near zero levels of productivity growth. Immigrants will take command of these issues and challenge the assumptions on which our current public systems are based. They will also gain more control of our economic affairs.
It is this that is at the heart of the debate. We should encourage and do all things possible to encourage and enable integration and give less emphasis to diversity, while respecting racial differences. This requires us to develop and strengthen our cultural institutions, systematically promote a strong sense of Canadian history and culture and focus on the development of language skills.
Integration is not a popular policy to pursue – liberals tend to think of it as patronising and it can be used as a blunt instrument. But why should we encourage the development of Muslim schools or Indian communities to develop an educational system for Hindu children? We need to systematically pursue integration while respecting religious and racial differences. It is a difficult challenge, but an issue we had better grasp soon.
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