Summer heat and storms bring out the worst in climate
warmist. “Hottest summer on record..” (no it isn’t) and we can “expect more
unusual storms and damage due to climate change” (no we cant). Weather events
have their own historiographies and causes, but don’t confuse weather with
climate or climate change with one off events. In fact, global temperatures so
far in 2012 have been below the fifteen year average.
But it is a helpful prompt to look at new information about
the state of climate science.
First, an important analysis of the veracity of computer
models of climate will shortly appear from Ross McKitrick (preview here).
Looking at all of the “in use” models he finds that none are especially good at
predicting regional climate (when compared to actual data) and that, taken
together, the models are based on a limited understanding of climate and a
particular model of climate change – one that makes assumptions about the role
of CO2. Given that so much of what we see is based on these “virtual science”
analysis as opposed to actual data, then we need to treat all of these models
with a great deal of caution.
This also applies to polar bear population analysis. The
models show declining populations in four groups of polar bears, whereas
observation and tagging data suggests that polar bears are actually doing
rather well – according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature
estimates, polar bear numbers are at least twice as high as in the 1960s (here).
Second, new evidence appears that we have been
underestimating how warm it was in the past. The team of scientists (see here),
led by Professor-Doktor Jan Esper of the Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz,
suggest that the available tree ring data shows that it was much warmer in the
Roman and medieval period than it is today – a time when less CO2 was in the
atmosphere than is the case today. Indeed, their analysis of these data suggest
that there has been a gradual cooling over time.
A related study shows that the coral reefs around Australia
were wiped out some 4,000 years ago when it was much warmer than it is now by
about 2C (here).
The culprit in this past case was not C02 but ENSO - the climate cycle
responsible for the weather conditions every few years known as El Niño and La
Niña events. The timing of the shutdown in reef growth corresponds to a period
of wild swings in ENSO. Since corals are resilient, they have regrown after a
shutdown that lasted over 2,500 years.
Then we look at the north and south poles. Contrary to media
hype, the vast majority of Antarctica has cooled
over the past 50 years and ice coverage has grown
to record levels since satellite monitoring began in the 1979, according to
peer-reviewed studies and scientists who study the area. (LINK) In the Arctic things are different. NSDIC
shows that the Arctic ice had expanded enough from its lows of 2007 to meet the
average level that existed over the last three decades. Another source, the National
Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, shows the Arctic ice to have
exceeded the three-decade average. While this summer the melt is substantial – the
largest in recent times – the recovery and resilience of the region has been
demonstrated time and time again (see here).
Newly discovered maps of the Arctic sea-ice extent in the earlier decades of
the 20th century make clear that the sea-ice extent in the decades around 100
years ago was much less than it is today. In many years, there was virtually a
northwest passage clear of ice along the Russian side.
Critics of the theory of CO2 causing substantive
warming (and it is one theory of several) like to point to the suggestion that
this is a cooling time. While the models suggest something different,
observation suggests that there has been no significant global warming since
1998 (here).
Indeed, there is a growing realization
amongst the scientific community that the CO2 theory is flawed. What is
emerging in its place is a focus on the role of the sun as a major determinant
of climate. New research at the Danish Space Research Institute and
Geneva-based CERN has been affirming this cosmic ray-Sun theory, and other
prestigious scientific bodies were giving it credence, including the Royal
Astronomical Society’s publication of an important new work that continues the
ascendancy of this theory (
here).
So, don’t be alarmed by extreme weather events as “evidence
of man made global warming”. Keep a critical, scientific mind which is open to
evidence based analysis not policy based evidence finding.
No comments:
Post a Comment