Bjorn Lomborg has been the vilified scourge of the “warmist”
environmental lobby for some time – ever since he wrote The Skeptical Environmentalist. His point has been simple – given the uncertainties
of climate data and the dubious value of climate modeling (for more, see Ross
McKitrick’s piece here),
why would we risk the economic future of nations on policies focused on CO2
reduction and a dramatic change in the energy economy of the world.
In a new contribution, posted at the Project Syndicate web
site (here), he looks at the
agenda for RO +20 and is very critical (read here).
His basic point is that CO2 is not at all the largest threat to the environment
and its people – the lack of clean water and air quality are. He puts it
simple. If we made the bizarre assumption that all natural disasters were
caused by climate change (the evidence is that it has no impact on such
disasters), then just 0.06% of all deaths in developing countries are caused by
such disasters. In comparison, 13% of all Third World deaths result from water
and air pollution. For each person dying from a natural disaster, 210 people
die from polluted water and polluted air (CO2 is not a pollutant).
He also makes other points. For example, that a focus on
organic food supplies in Africa is a major cause of death from malnutrition –
what Africa needs to do is shift from small scale organic farming to industrial
scale farming so as to massively increase food supplies.
He makes the same point about energy. The RIO +20 agenda
wants the developing world to make extensive use of wind and solar energy –
known to be less reliable, more expensive and problematic than fossil fuel
based energy. Why would they promote a more expensive, less reliable energy
source for the poorest nations on the planet? Is it naiveté, ideological
blindness or something more sinister? In terms of air quality, a great many of
the deaths occur from burning dung (an organic commodity). Would they be better
served by natural gas based energy (in liquid form)?
A focus on green transport – especially electric cars –
ignores the fact that most of these cars are fuelled by coal and natural gas.
At $50,000 each they are unlikely to provide a solution to the transport challenges
of the world.
It is well worth a read.
On a different tack, but still focused on RIO +20, the
developing countries are asking for an annual fund of $30 billion to pay for
global governance and their green economic development. They want this to come
from the tax on GDP from the developed world – 0.7% of each countries GDP. What
they don’t seem to realize is that the other policies they wish developed
nations to pursue – especially the 95% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 –
will have such an impact on GDP (economies would literally collapse) that they
will not be able to pay the 0.7% of GDP. It’s a recipe for international
economic depression.
Next week is likely to be a talk-fest without consequence.
The organizers have so far failed to secure basic agreement on anything, despite
several days of preparatory meetings. It will be a failure, but one at our
expensive.
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