Saturday, March 14, 2009

Sea Level Rises by 2100

Question: How much will the sea level rise be by 2100?

Response: Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth suggested 20 feet eventually (he does not refer to this in terms of 2100 – making this just a guess that at sometime in the future it could be..). Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Institute suggests it will be 39 feet (at other times he has suggested 16 feet). The IPCC 4th Assessment in 2007 suggested that it would be 23 inches – much lower than the IPCC previously suggested. The Deltacommissie (Holland) gives 55-110 cm for global sea level rises for 2100, and the bit more for Holland (executive summary, p. 10, 2nd paragraph) - 0.65-1.30 metres relative sea level rise by 2100, 2-4 metres by 2200.
Hansen has also said:

“In my opinion, if emissions follow a business-as-usual scenario, sea level rise of at least two meters [6.6 feet] is likely this century. Hundreds of millions of people would become refugees. No stable shoreline would be reestablished in any time frame that humanity can conceive.”

Fact: Satellites show a declining ocean level since the end of 2006, partly due to La Niña conditions, but still going on now. Also, the Maldives Sea Level Project ( ), there has been no sea level change in the last 30 years.

Question: Is this another example of the models not fitting actual data?

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