Changing What and How We Teach Needs Time

Alberta is engaged in a major curriculum reform – the cornerstone of its strategy to ensure its sustains its position as a global leader in education. At the heart of these reforms are these shifts:

1. A strong focus on the student and the process of learning – increasing the sense of ownership, involvement and engagement in learning – making learning more focused on the way in which the learner learns.
2.  Less focused on content and more focused on competency – students will still study subjects like science, arts, maths but will do so with the intention of developing skills, knowledge, understanding and the attitudes and methods required by those subjects to achieve outcomes. Some have suggested that this is all about discovery and projects – and these will be a significant part of how students learn at some stages for some subjects – but there will be a strong focus on competencies and outcomes.
3. From a prescribed study schedule and curriculum to greater flexibility – professional teachers will be able to make many more decisions about how best to achieve the competency expectations for their students through locally relevant, meaningful work and activities. All students in Alberta at each grade will still be expected to have mastery of the competencies associated with that grade – how they achieve this will largely be determined locally.
4. A focus on assessment for learning  - students will be assessed, but the focus for this assessment will be on the question “what else does this student have to do to master these competencies?”. There will still be Provincial assessments, but the focus for these will change.
5.  Less print, more varied forms of learning materials – so much quality learning resources are available online, in print and through simulations, interactive learning resources and through global collaborative projects. Teachers and learners will have more choice over what to use to support their learning.
6. Less development of curriculum by Alberta Education and more development through the engagement of local stakeholders (e.g. teachers, employers, post-secondary institutions,  First Nations and Metis communities, nonprofit organizations and community organizations, students) so that what is taught and being studied by students reflects the needs, resources and skills in the community in which the student lives and works.

These changes are significant and substantial, but reflect not only what is needed in Alberta but also what many other jurisdictions around the world are doing. The intention is to ensure that students leaving school  are able to:

•          Know how to learn
•         Think critically
•         Identify and solve problems
•          Manage information
•         Innovate
•         Create opportunities
•          Apply multiple literacies
•         Communicate well and cooperate with others
•        Demonstrate global and cultural understanding
•         Identify and apply career and Lifeskills

To put it succinctly: we are looking for our school system to enable our young people to be engaged thinkers, ethical citizens and entrepreneurial. This requires changes to what we teach, how we teach and how we assess what has been learned. The Government of Alberta committed to these changes in a series of actions and decisions making clear the direction our education system would take (see here for a short video about curriculum change and here for the Ministerial commitment to these changes). 

These are not the only changes taking place in our school system – there are changes which enable students to take college or university credit while at high school, for more flexibility in high school programs, changes to Provincial Achievement Tests (PAT’s) and Diploma Exams, encouraging locally developed courses and investing in the use of technology for learning. But changing what students do every day – the curriculum – and how we assess them are key to delivering on the promise of Inspiring Education.

These changes are causing concern. One parent, concerned about declining performance in mathematics in Alberta, has started a “back to basics” in maths petition which has already been signed by over 10,000 persons. The Wildrose Part – Alberta’s official opposition – appears opposed to these curriculum changes.  Others have expressed concerns that some of those engaged in the process of curriculum change are major oil and gas companies (as well as several other businesses, nonprofits, First Nations groups and other stakeholders). All appear concerned about the speed at which these changes are intended to be made – completed within two years.

At the heart of these conversations are some interesting questions:

1. Who should set curriculum?  The teaching profession, government, communities? In theory, the Province sets curriculum guidelines which teachers than adapt to local circumstance. For a major overhaul, should we not all be involved, with the final decisions in the hands of professional educators?
2.  What should be the focus of assessment? The strategy is to shift to a competency based assessment coupled with an assessment of learning outcomes. In math, this would mean “can a student successful perform the following calculations and get the right answer” (competency) as well as “does the student understand the basis of these calculations” (learning process and outcome).
3. What should drive change? The focus on the new math is interesting – the suggestion is that students can no longer perform basic math and this is because some “eductrats” adopted a “fad” known as “discovery math. Our Math curriculum, despite what “traditionalists” might say, is extremely strong. It is based on solid research on child development, and was developed not by a couple of bureaucrats sitting in an office, but rather through the exhaustive input and review of 43 Math teachers, professors, and consultants from four provinces and the then two territories, and when revised in 2006 had input from an additional 24 consultants from four provinces and all three territories (for more information, see here).  Further, our PISA results in Math are impressive. Alberta’s scored  51-  only two points behind Finland, one of the leading educational systems in the world Given our (both at the Canadian level, and specifically Alberta) diverse and very heterogeneous population, our country’s Math teachers must be doing something right. Ahead of us are places like Liechtenstein (population of 36,000), Macau, Shanghai – in fact just a 2 per cent reduction in our raw score on math over a period of three years has led to ministerial handwringing, parents initiating petitions, newspaper columnists launching crusades and CEOs descending from on high to chastise teachers. Should PISA envy be the driver of curriculum change?

Public support for education is always complicated. It is clear that much more could have been done much sooner to engage parents, employers, First Nations, communities and teachers in the work of curriculum change. It is also clear that change is needed. Lets take the time it takes to do it well.

(This post first appeared at the Innovation Expedition www.innovationexpedition.com)

The New Science Deniers

John Kerry, the US Secretary of State denies science. He claims that the many current extreme weather events – droughts in California, snow in the North Eastern US, flooding in southern England – are all evidence of “the compelling and undeniable scientific case of this growing challenge that is pushing the planet towards a tipping point of no return”. Ed Miliband, who is the current leader of the British Labour Party, also denies science. He says that “Britain is sleepwalking towards disaster because of a failure to recognize that climate change is causing the extreme weather that has blighted the country". The UK Green Party leader Natalie Bennett also denies science, but goes further. She wants to police science and remove anyone from policy advice to government who denies the scientific consensus. She wants a new thought police (see here – see point 3). 

A real scientist, as opposed to a political science denier, has intervened to make clear what the science actually tells us at this time. One of the Met Office’s most senior experts yesterday made an intervention in the climate change debate by insisting there is no link between the storms that have battered Britain and global warming. Mat Collins, a Professor in climate systems at Exeter University, said the storms have been driven by the jet stream – the high-speed current of air that girdles the globe – which has been ‘stuck’ further south than usual. Professor Collins said: ‘There is no evidence that global warming can cause the jet stream to get stuck in the way it has this winter. If this is due to climate change, it is outside our knowledge.’ (here).

Roger Pielke Jnr, a real scientist whose life’s work has been to study extreme weather events, rejects the politicization of climate science. He observes that incidence of drought has not really changed for sixty years (here) and that "droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent and cover a smaller portion of the US over the last century" according to a scientific report issued by the US Government (here). The IPCC also made clear that there was a low probability of climate change being linked to extreme weather (here). Indeed, there review of the science in 2012 concluded:

“There is not enough evidence at present to suggest high confidence in observed trends in dryness due to lack of direct observations, some geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and some dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. There is medium confidence that since the 1950s some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts (e.g., southern Europe, west Africa) but also opposite trends exist in other regions (e.g., central North America, northwestern Australia).”

Deaths due to extreme weather are radically declining, global tropical cyclone activity is near historic lows, the frequency of major U.S. hurricanes has declined, tornados have dramatically declined since the 1950s, droughts are not historically unusual nor caused by mankind, there is no evidence we are currently having unusual weather.

The science of extreme weather is not at all well understood – and we are becoming less confident that we fully understand the dynamics of climate and climate change. The long pause in warming – which began in 1998 or 2000, depending on which scientists we depend on for analysis (the UK Met Office accepts both, but makes clear that the 1998 and 1999 years are complicated by El Nino and La Nina events (here) – defies all of the climate models on which most of the current understanding of climate change are built (here). The link between CO2 and surface temperature cannot be as strong as many have suggested – as CO2 continues to rise, but the surface temperature remains steadfast.

As I suggested in an earlier post (here), its time to get back to theory development driven by data from actual observations – the models are basically not giving us a picture which resembles the evidence. As Wesley Pruden writes in the Washington Times (here), “science at its best is skeptical, a community of doubters and agnostics. At its worst, it’s a community of theologians, out to protect its scams of preconceived “truth.” Garbage in, garbage out, none of it hot”. What has happened now is that the politicians have become the acolytes for the theology.

It is politically expedient for politicians to focus on climate change since they see this as a “vote button” attractive to certain voters. It also distracts from the failure of their public policies on infrastructure investments, water management, flood prevention and so on. It provides context for their desire to tax CO2 and provide new sources of revenue – taxes which will not have any impact on climate. President Obama wants a $1 billion “resilience” fund – something normally called an economic stimulus package focused on flood defenses, sea wall strengthening and improved hurricane protection measures (here). Cloaking this stimulus package with the hyperbole of climate change just might get this spending through Congress. But it is a masque – a cloak, not science.

Climate, Science and Evidence

“Unless we take action on climate change, future generations will be roasted, toasted, fried and grilled” Ms Christine Legarde, Managing Director IMF

Science proceeds cautiously. A hypothesis is in favour and dominates thinking for a period of time until evidence from the natural world suggests that the hypothesis needs correction or a fundamentally different hypothesis replaces the original one. When we modify and adjust a hypothesis we refer to this as a “refinement”; when we replace it is called a paradigm shift.

Part of the problem with climate science is that many of its proponents gave up on actual evidence some time ago and instead prefer to spend their time looking at the output from a range of computer models which, though they utilize some actual evidence, do so within a range of pre-programmed assumptions. The IPCC, for example, develops scenarios based on these models and most predictions we see from climate scientists also have their origins in these models.

Science is also about exceptions – an event or series of events which challenge the dominant hypothesis. For example, unusual occurrences in a chemistry experiment sometime send chemists in new directions, just as lab mistakes have created new substances (e.g. aspartame).  So when a pattern changes, we take note.

The dominant hypothesis of the current favoured climate science has these components:

1.       Human activity science 1945 is causing a significant increase in CO2 emissions.

2.       CO2 emissions accumulate in the atmosphere together with other greenhouse gasses and add to naturally occurring CO2.

3.       CO2 and other greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere have an impact on climate, acting as a “greenhouse” especially when coupled with assumed climate forcing elements.

4.       The net impact of the greenhouse effect and climate forcing is warming.

5.       Warming as measured by the global mean surface temperature will cause erosion of the ice at both poles of the earth, which in turn will have an impact on ocean sea levels.

6.       Warming will also have an impact on weather events, biodiversity and human activity.

So the core hypothesis is this: “Increasing anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide have a significant warming effect on global climate”.

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 39/1,000ths of one percent. Ninety-five percent of the greenhouse effect is water vapor, and the level of water vapor in the atmosphere is not changing. The total change in atmospheric composition since 1945, when CO2 levels began to increase, is one 9/1,000ths of one percent. The climate models all assume that this is significant and will have a significant impact. They are wrong.

Indeed, the models used to predict climate are “out” by 1⁰C – more than the climate has changed since the dire warnings from some climate scientists began. We have now had 15 years without any significant warming, even though CO2 emissions have risen significantly. Fears of a 1⁰C increase in global surface temperature per decade – the worst case scenario – appear to be unfounded.

Part of the argument favouring the dominant hypothesis is that a large number of scientists are aligned with it. There are claims, for example, that 97% of climate scientists agree with the hypothesis. This is not at all the case. a Canada-based group calling itself Friends of Science has just completed a review of the four main studies used to document the alleged consensus and found that only 1 - 3% of respondents "explicitly stated agreement with the IPCC declarations on global warming," and that there was "no agreement with a catastrophic view."  The hypothesis as stated above remains dominant, but there are growing scientific concerns that the hypothesis is flawed. Some 32,000 American scientists have made clear that they disagree with the hypothesis.

Currently we can summarize evidence related to the hypothesis as follows:

·         Warming: Analyses of data from a number of sources indicate that (i) there was a gradual increase in global atmospheric CO₂ concentration from about 1860 to 1945, (ii) there has been a much more rapid rate of increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration from 1945 to the present, (iii) the most recent trend of global surface air temperature during this period of rapid CO₂increase has been downwards, which is in contradiction to the predictions of the most sophisticated general circulational models of the atmosphere in use today, (iv) this downward trend in surface air temperature has been most pronounced in northern latitudes, which is also in contrast to the model predictions, and (v) the downward temperature trend has been greater in summer than in winter, which is again in contradiction to the models.

·         Extreme Weather: Despite frequent political claims to the contrary, there is no established relationship between climate and extreme weather events. Indeed, the IPCC came to the conclusion that “there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century” and  “current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … no robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin” and  “there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”

·         Sea Level Rise: Records and research show that sea level has been steadily rising at a rate of 1 to 2.5 millimeters (0.04 to 0.1 inches) per year since 1900. This rate may be increasing. Since 1992, new methods of satellite altimetry (the measurement of elevation or altitude) indicate a rate of rise of 3 millimeters (0.12 inches) per year. Although fast, the observed rise still is (just) within the ‘natural range’.

·         Arctic and Antarctic Ice: It is clear from the various data sets, terrestrial and satellite, that both the Arctic sea ice extent and multi-year ice volume are reducing. Sea ice extent recovered slightly during the Arctic winters of 2008-09, but the full extent of annual ice reduction or gain is seen in September of each year, at the end of the Arctic summer. The volume of multi-year ice has not recovered at all, and is showing a steeply negative trend. In the Antarctic things are different. Scientists at the British Antarctic Survey say that the melting of the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf in Antarctica has suddenly slowed right down in the last few years, confirming earlier research which suggested that the shelf's melt does not result from human-driven global warming.

So where does this leave us? It leaves us as scientists with a view that the core dominant hypothesis is failing to explain the complexity of the evidence we are seeing from actual measurements of what is happening in the atmosphere, oceans, on the ice and on the ground. While some have suggested that all is consistent with the dominant hypothesis, there is a growing sense that the hypothesis is weak and needs refinement or replacement.

Some have suggested that there is a range of natural variability which is not accounted for in current models and analysis (see here and here). Others have suggested that the influence of the sun is poorly accounted for in the current understanding of climate (see here).

It is time to stop focusing on the who is right and who is wrong battle (warmists versus skeptics) and instead focus on the evidence on our inability to adequately explain it.

Whatever Happened to Transforming Education in Alberta?

A colleague and friend from the United States asked me yesterday a simple question: “what happened to the momentum for equity, transformation and change in Alberta education?”.  Made me think. Here is my response.

First, we lost an important champion. Hon Dave Hancock was the Minister of Education (now Deputy Premier and Minister for Innovation and Advanced Education) who engendered trust and spurred innovation and collaboration. Its his style. He sought labour peace, developed a process to listen and understand the need for change and set an agenda for change which teachers, principals and superintendents could buy into. He was replaced by a Minister – Hon Thomas (“hit me”) Lucasuk – who made no attempt to understand the opportunity left by his predecessor, alienated teachers and school administrators and was generally a poor substitute for leadership. Realizing this, the Premier moved him to the role of Deputy Premier without portfolio as part of her “keep you enemies close” strategy. He is now Minister for Jobs, Skills, Training and Labour. He was replaced by Hon. Jeff Johnson, a former sales person for Xerox. He too has alienated teachers and school administrators and is widely seen as a proponent of market based tools and instruments for schooling.

These changes are more than symbolic – an activist Minister like Johnson can do a great deal of harm to an emerging movement in a very short period of time.  It is widely understood that this Government wishes to split the Alberta Teachers Association by separating its negotiation/union function from its professional support and development function. It is also rumoured that the Minister wants to remove those with managerial roles (Principals and Superintendents) from the union. Also under attack are public sector pensions, as can be seen from recent announcement from the Minister of Finance, Hon Doug Horner (see here).

Transformative change depends on trust and collaboration. Two successive Ministers appear not to understand this and have either deliberately or unintentionally set out to damage trust between those who will enable transformation (teachers) and those who will support transformation (school and Board administrators) and those who will guide transformation (the leadership of the ATA and the Government of Alberta and Superintendents). Until trust is returned, transformation will be piecemeal, fraught and stalled.

Second, the key to turning ideas into action is to create the right conditions of practice for teachers – class size, time for professional development, engagement in curriculum change, the right kind of preparation for teaching, support for the inclusion of those with special needs. Almost all of these conditions are in poor shape. Classes in many schools are large because Alberta is growing faster than investment in physical capacity and teachers permits.  In Calgary, classes average 30 when the Province recommends 27 (see here) – the highest they have ever been in modern times. Some have classes of 38-40 with 3-4 special needs students included.  School Boards have requested portable buildings to accommodate growth in student numbers, but the Government cannot meet these demands (here).

School budgets are tight – with teachers being laid off (here) or not hired, even though demand is growing. The forthcoming Provincial budget will, it is rumoured, add to the austerity context in which schools are operating. Some school Boards have to consider reducing the school week (here) so as to balance budgets. Requests for replacement technology, for professional development or funds for innovation are becoming less likely to be approved, especially now that a major engine for innovation in schools – The Alberta Initiative for School Improvement – has been abolished (here).

In these circumstances, the conditions of practice are threatened not supported. But wait, it gets worse. The Hon Jeff Johnson initiated a review of teacher excellence in 2013, which is due to report shortly. The Task Force he established did not include any serving teachers (no wonder there are trust issues) and its processes were very questionable. Hon. Jeff Johnson has several times suggested that there should be merit pay for teachers – this despite compelling evidence that this has no impact on the learning experiences of learners or learning outcomes: it may work in Xerox, but not in schools (for a review of the argument see here, for evidence of consequence see  here, here, here, and here).

Third, the transformation journey remains unfocused. This may be about to change. The Hon Jeff Johnson is about to announce some curriculum prototyping work across Alberta which will “be the engine of transformation”. Without revealing too much, the change in schools will be driven by changes to curriculum. In particular, a shift from “content and process” based learning to “competencies” and a focus on Provincial frameworks for competency with teachers having much more freedom, in partnership with others, to create appropriate learning for these competencies will be a major change.  Teachers are nervous about these developments for several reasons. First, there are the conditions of practice issues and investment issues just mentioned. Second, parents have not been engaged in the conversation about these changes since the broad consultations associated with Inspiring Education, which took place in 2008-2010 and even then only a small number were involved. Third, investments have not been made in appropriate professional development to enable the transition to competencies by school systems (see here). The prototyping work will “surface” many of these issues, but they will also be challenging politically at a time when austerity is about to become more severe.

Finally, there is a strong sense that the present Government may not be the next government. Amongst the literati and politerati the conversation is not whether or not the Redford government will win the next election, but rather what kind of Government will be in place after the next election, due in 2016. It is clear that the Alberta Liberal Party and the NDP are both unlikely to form the Government or a coalition. It is also clear that the fledgling Alberta Party has yet to find the right kind of leadership to position themselves as serious players in the 2016 election. The choice is between the Wild Rose, led by Danielle Smith, or the current government either led by Alison (“in wonderland”) Redford or someone else. Two scenarios are emerging as bar talk favourites. A modest win for the Wild Rose or a minority government continuing the current party in power.

Whichever scenario turns out to be the case – and a week, never mind eighteen to twenty months is a long time in politics – it is leading to the current government seeking to demonstrate its right wing credentials. Hence its systematic pursuit of austerity and “no new taxes and no increase in taxes”, despite a deficit. Hence its systematic persecution of public sector unions through Bill 45 (bans public sector workers from striking, despite this being a labour right) and Bill 46 (muzzles freedom of speech) and an assault on pensions (see here). Hence its unfettered support for employers, despite growing concerns over cumulative environmental impacts of their activities.  Hence the growing right wing nature of many of the actions we currently see and anticipate, such as a pending assault on the Alberta Teachers’ Association. What is happening is Alison Redford’s party is trying to occupy the space they think the Wildrose Party occupies.

But all this misses the point: no one trusts Alison Redford to do what she said she would do or her government to behave in a way that engenders community support. She and her colleagues no longer have the trust of the electorate. When this occurs, political parties become increasingly desperate to “win back” the voter. The problem for teachers and educators is that so few Albertan’s vote - 1,290,218  from a potential pool of 2,265,169 (57%), and so few vote for the party that wins. These facts lead the parties to work to attract small sub-sets of the electorate by appealing to what they suspect will appeal to them – no tax increases, take on these “fat cat” public sector people and punish those who challenge the status quo. The irony is that many teachers voted for this government so as to keep out the Wildrose. It is very doubtful that they will do this in 2016.

What might be a surprise in 2016 is that we could get a very high turnout – say 80-85% - who want to see an end to this government. In 1935 some 82 per cent of eligible voters turned out and the electorate turfed the United Farmers of Alberta from power in favour of Social Credit.

Transformation  is not dead in Alberta education. It will occur one school at a time because courageous teachers, Principals and community leaders working together will make it so. But the overarching conditions are not in place for a system wide or Province wide transformation.  It is a real shame: they were, and not that long ago either.

Beware of Predictions

“In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001.

Despite this admission, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) continues to have confidence in a scenario for the future which is so disturbing that nations are being asked to take drastic action to mitigate the climate “catastrophe” that awaits us. While actual evidence suggests that the climate is undergoing natural cyclical change and that the “man-made” impacts are small, policy makers are determined to act on models and scenarios from “experts” which remain unsupported by compelling “real world” evidence.

Indeed, the expert “consensus” position is based on selective use of evidence, some of it from peer reviewed journals and some not, and expert group-think. Psychologists understand this phenomenon and have developed a thorough understanding of just how wrong experts can be.

Phillip Tetlock author of Expert Political Judgement^[1] and a Professor of Psychology at Penn State University, provides strong empirical evidence for just how bad we are at predicting. He conducted a long-running experiment that asked nearly 300 political experts to make a variety of forecasts about dozens of countries around the world. After tracking the accuracy of about 80,000 predictions over the course of 20 years, Tetlock found:

That experts thought they knew more than they knew. That there was a systematic gap between subjective probabilities that experts were assigning to possible futures and the objective likelihoods of those futures materializing … With respect to how they did relative to, say, a baseline group of Berkeley undergraduates making predictions, they did somewhat better than that. How did they do relative to purely random guessing strategy? Well, they did a little bit better than that, but not as much as you might hope …

The psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on decision-making, has looked at the issue of “experts” and why they often get things wrong. In his book Thinking Fast and Slow^[2] he points to several aspects of their psychology as factors, but highlights two in particular: the illusion of understanding and the illusion of validity. These are primary causes of experts getting it wrong.

The illusion of understanding refers to the idea that the world is more knowable than it actually is. In particular, experts believe that they have an in-depth and insightful understanding of the past and this enables them to better understand the future. They use what Kahneman refers to as the WYSIATI rule – “what you see is all that there is” and this provides the basis for their confidence.

For example, it must be the case that high levels of government indebtedness (levels of debt to GDP ratio above 90% is the most recent version of this^[3]) stifle the economy and reduce investor and entrepreneurial confidence according to some notable economists. Or it is obvious that human generated C02 is the major cause of climate change according to some climatologists. Both of these understandings are based on a particular view of historical data and “facts” and an extrapolation of these views into the future.

The views exist independently of the evidence to support them. Just as financial advisers are confident that they are successful in predicting the future behaviour of stocks, so macro-economists are confident that their views of austerity have the weight of history behind them. Those committed to the view that human produced CO2 is the primary cause of climate change are not deterred by evidence that it may not be or that climate change has stalled for the last seventeen years.

Experts are sustained in their beliefs by a professional culture that supports them. Austerians  (those who believe that austerity is the only way) have their own network of support, as do the Keynesians who oppose them. Anthroprocene climatologists who believe that man is the primary cause of global warming have their own network of support among climate change researchers and politicians while the skeptical climate scientists also have their support networks. All remain ignorant of their ignorance and are sustained in their belief systems by selected use of evidence and by the support of stalwarts. These supportive networks and environments help sustain the illusion of validity. It is an illusion because evidence which demonstrates contrary views to those of the “experts” are dismissed and denied – the expert position, whatever it may be, is valid simply because they are expert.

Indeed, using Isaiah Berlin’s 1953 work on Tolstoy (The Hedgehog and the Fox), Austerians and anthropocenes are “hedgehogs” – they know one big thing, they know what they know within a coherent framework, they bristle with impatience towards those who don’t see things their way and they are exceptionally focused on their forecasts. For these experts a “failed prediction” is an issue of timing, the kind of evidence being adduced and so on – it is never due to the fact that their prediction is wrong. Austerians who look at the failure of their policies in Europe, for example, suggest that the austerity did not go far enough; anthroprocene climatologists see the lack of warming over the last seventeen years as proof that they are right, it is just that the timing is a little out. Even the climatologist trapped in thick ice in the Antarctic in December 2013 who set out to study the thinning ice-cap claims he just went to the wrong place – “climate change is happening and the ice is melting” he says, as he is lifted off the thick ice by helicopter.

Tetlock’s work, cited above, is a powerful testimony to these two illusions – understanding and validity. His results are devastating for the notion of “the expert”. According to Kahneman, “people who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer predictions than dart throwing monkeys”.

Tetlock observes that “experts in demand were more overconfident that those who eked our existences far from the limelight”. We can see this in spades in both economics and climate change. James Hanson, recently retired from NASA and seen to be one of the worlds leading anthroprocene climatologists, makes predictions and claims that cannot be supported by the evidence he himself collected and was responsible for. For example, he suggested that “in the last decade it's warmed only about a tenth of a degree as compared to about two tenths of a degree in the preceding decade” – a claim not supported by the data set which he was responsible for. This overconfidence and arrogance comes from being regarded as one of the leading climate scientists in the world – evidence is not as important as the claim or the person making it. Hanson suffers from the illusion of skill.

Kahneman recognizes people like Hansen. He suggests

“…overconfident professionals sincerely believe they have expertise, act as experts and look like experts. You will have to struggle to remind yourself that they may be in the grip of an illusion.”  

There are other psychological features of the expert that are worthy of reflection. For example, how “group think” starts to permeate a discipline such that those outside the group cannot be heard as rational or meaningful – they are referred to as “deniers” or “outsiders”, reflecting the power of group think. The power of a group (they will claim consensus as if this ends scientific debate) to close ranks and limit the scope of conversation or act as gatekeepers for the conversation. Irving Janis documented the characteristics of group think in his 1982 study of policy disasters and fiascoes^[4]. He suggests these features:

1. Illusion of invulnerability –Creates excessive optimism that encourages taking extreme risks. We can see this in the relentless pursuit of austerity throughout Europe.
2. Collective rationalization – Members discount warnings and do not reconsider their assumptions. We see this in relation to both climate change and austerity economics.
3. Belief in inherent morality – Members believe in the rightness of their cause and therefore ignore the ethical or moral consequences of their decisions. Austerians appear to willfully ignore the level of unemployment and the idea of a lost generation of youth workers, especially in Greece and Spain. Anthropecene climate researchers generally present themselves as morally superior.
4. Stereotyped views of out-groups – Negative views of “enemy” make effective responses to conflict seem unnecessary. Climate “deniers” commonly face suggestions that they be prosecuted or punished in some way^[5].
5. Direct pressure on dissenters – Members are under pressure not to express arguments against any of the group’s views. This has occurred in climate change research community, since grants appear to favour those who adopt the view that man made CO2 is the primary cause of climate change.
6. Self-censorship – Doubts and deviations from the perceived group consensus are not expressed.
7. Illusion of unanimity – The majority view and judgments are assumed to be unanimous. This is especially the case in “consensus” (sic) climate change science and amongst austerians.
8. Self-appointed ‘mindguards’ – Members protect the group and the leader from information that is problematic or contradictory to the group’s cohesiveness, view, and/or decisions.

- all of these characteristics can be seen to be in play in the two examples used throughout this chapter – economics of austerity and made man global warming.

There is also the issue of the focusing illusion. Kahneman sums this up in a single statement: “nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it”. “Government debt is the most important economic challenge facing society today” says a well known economists, or “climate change is a life and death issue” says US Secretary of State, John Kerry.  Neither of these statements are true for anyone unless they are obsessive.

Society faces a great many challenges. Much will depend on our own preoccupations and what focus one take for the concerns you have. Some are more concerned about the future of Manchester United or Chelsea football clubs than they are about debt, deficits or climate change. The illusion is that one person’s focus is, by definition, better than another’s simply because they are expert in this field.

Nassim Taleb makes a very compelling argument against forecasting in several of his books, most notably in The Black Swan^[6]. He explains that we can make use of very short-term guesses or predictions, but long-term forecasts are nothing more than pure guesswork. We are guilty of ascribing far too much predictability to the truly unpredictable. It is very common for our human brains to believe we are recognizing patterns that are only a random sequence of events. Experts have tried to overcome our human fallacies with tools such as quantitative modeling. However, even these models play only on our biases. We believe that models that have accurately predicted the future in the past are likely to predict the future going forward. But that is no more true than believing me when I tell you that a coin will land heads up just because I accurately predicted it would do so the last ten times.

So beware of predictions, especially those made by experts. New years eve and day are the prime season for prediction. You have been warned.

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[1] Tetlock, P. E(2006) Expert Political Judgment – How Good is It? How Can we Know? New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

[2] Kahneman, D (2011) Thinking Fast and Slow. Toronto: Doubelday Canada

[3] Reinhart, C. and Rogoff, K. (2013) This Time Its Different – Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

[4] See Janis, Irving L.  (1982).  Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes.  Second Edition.  New York: Houghton Mifflin.

⁶ It has been suggested that those who deny climate change is caused by human activity should be put to death. See http://joannenova.com.au/2012/12/death-threats-anyone-austrian-prof-global-warming-deniers-should-be-sentenced-to-death

[6] Taleb, N ( 2010) The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable.  New York: Random House.

School Choice, PISA and Policy

The educational neo-conservative ideologues are out in force in the US, UK and Canada and they are using their interpretation of the OECD PISA results as a smokescreen to justify their take on what needs to happen to improve school system performance and outcomes. Whether or not the PISA data supports their propositions, they make their claims anyway.

The latest example appeared in the Globe and Mail where Paul Bennett (a consultant ) argues a case for school choice being a “solution” to Canada’s education “problem” (see here).

An analysis of the PISA data sets shows that Bennett’s arguments are without foundation (setting aside some errors of fact in his writing). Writing in The Guardian using his in-depth analysis of the PISA data, Pasi Sahlberg of Harvard University makes clear:

School choice does not improve the performance of education system. School choice and competition between schools are related to greater levels of segregation in the education system. That, in turn, may have adverse consequences for equity in learning opportunities and outcomes. Indeed, successful education systems do better than those that have expanded school choice. All successful school systems have a strong commitment to maintain their public schools and local school control. PISA 2012 data show that the prevalence of charter and free schools with related competition for students have no discernible relationship with student learning.

and that what the PISA data actually shows is the failure of the neo-conservative market agenda for education (see here).

So rather that attend to the noise of Bennett and his cohort, pay attention to those who look to understand what the evidence really says.

JEFF JOHNSON'S PISA ENVY

The headlines have past and we can now settle down again and get back to the real work of helping students learn, engaging with communities in support of that learning and supporting our teachers who, each day, work hard to ensure that high quality learning takes place.

The headlines on Tuesday were focused on the OECD assessments of students – the results of the Program of International Student Assessment (PISA). The analysis of the 2012 results suggests that Canada was among the high-level achievers, though performance of the country's 15-year-olds in math has declined, with a 14-point dip in the past nine years. Manitoba and Alberta have really seen the greatest decline in math scores. Performance in reading has remained relatively stable, and there has also been a decline in science performance - dipping from an average of 534 in 2006 and 529 in 2009.

The good news for Canada, especially Alberta, is that we do well on measures on equity – access to and success in education: we are not a post-code edutocracy. Many other countries (like the US and Britain) are. Also good news is that the global education reform movement countries (GERM) do especially poorly when compared to those which pursue equity as the cornerstone of their educational strategy.

Now before we get excited, a note of caution. For an international test to work, all students tested have to answer the same questions, or at least questions of similar difficulty and intention. In one obvious sense, they don't: the questions are translated into different languages which, according to one Norwegian academic, "results in rather strange prose" in his country and for several others. Danish academics, when they analyzed the 2006 Pisa tests, found that eight of the 28 reading questions were deleted from the final analysis in some countries. Moreover, about half the students participating that year weren't tested on reading at all. The OECD, which runs PISA, says it calculates "plausible values" for the missing scores, and this is a standard statistical device. But it's a hard idea for most of us to get our heads round, and many statisticians dispute its validity, suggesting that the results are nonsensical and meaningless.

Further, a study by Keith Baker published in 2007 showed that there is no relationship between a nation’s economic productivity and its test scores. Also, test scores did not bear any relationship to quality of life or democratic institutions or creativity. Indeed, the U.S. “clobbered the world,” with more patents per million people than any other nation even though it has poor scores on PISA and other measures. Baker concluded that a focus on such things as PISA is an unhealthy and distracting basis for educational policy.

The PISA results often produce “PISA envy” amongst Ministers of Education, who jockey for insight and explanations on the “big PISA day” every few years. Our own Alberta Minister, Jeff Johnson, is no exception. He says he is looking around the world to understand how we can improve math education and continue to improve overall standards and he is already convinced that the issue is teacher quality. Conveniently, given that he already has plans to act on this “issue”, he sees this as the major task for 2014.  In part he is right – we already have excellent teachers who now need the right conditions of practice and support so as to be able to fully utilize their skills. Rather than “transform teacher quality and teacher education” we need a genuine partnership at the level of the school and the district  between students, teachers, administrators and parents to ensure we have great schools for all students in all areas of Alberta. This is not what Johnson has in mind. He intends to tinker and change.

But we shouldn’t let league tables, PISA or standardized tests drive what we do. We should let teachers and in-school administrators, supported by district colleagues, drive what we do. Ministers of education should ensure an adequate supply of resources, appropriate over-arching conditions of practice, an agreed curriculum framework and then get out of the way. Schools is where learning takes place and schools are the place that makes a difference. Give our schools back to the teachers and stand by to be amazed at what they can do.