Introduction
These are challenging times. Whether its
the shifting fortunes of the Eurozone, uncertainty about power and democracy in
the middle east, concerns about sustainability with nine billion people
expected to occupy the planet by 2050, or the future of schooling, these appear
to be difficult times.
What is in fact happening is that we are in
the "in between" times between two major patterns of socio-economic
reality. One pattern, now coming to the end of its natural cycle, is one in
which a single major super-power dominated economically and militarily, established institutions like the IMF, World
Bank and UN were able to steer the world in an direction the dominant powers
could support and the global economy functioned well in the interests of the
wealthy and the growing middle class. The emerging pattern is one in which
power is shared between a number of different interests - China, India and
sometimes Russia balance the interests of the US and the EU, as we saw with the
vote at the UN concerning Syria in early February 2012 - and the "old"
institutions appear no longer "fit for purpose". The relative power
and authority of the US, not to mention its economic strength, is changing as
other countries strengthen their economies and secure growth.
But there are other changes which are
important in that they are shaping the shift from the old paradigm to the
emerging frame which we will use to understand the world in which we live. Six particular patterns are shaping this new
reality, each will be described briefly here. As we think about each, the
challenge is to see them as opportunities for a new enlightenment - a new
renaissance.
Demography
is not destiny, but it is clearly shaping a great
many issues in the developed world. Canada, for example, has a birth rate below
replacement as do many countries in the European Union. What this means is that
fewer people will be in the workforce and able to support those too young or
old to work or unable to do so. It also means that immigration becomes the
source of new labour and the sustainability of the economy, with implications
for culture, community, identity and values. As many will live longer, thanks
to advances in regenerative medicine and social conditions, strains will be
felt in health care systems and on personal wealth. It will be the best of
times for communities and the worst of times, as they adjust to new cultural
values and norms. Schools will be challenges to be sustainable in rural
communities, as migration to urban areas continues (85% of all Canadians now
live in urban areas).
Economies are changing dramatically. US sovereign and public debt and
unfounded liabilities exceed $210 trillion while private indebtedness stands at
$14 billion. Growth has stalled in many parts of the world and there are
various forms of economic crises, ranging from the challenge is sustaining the
Eurozone, the UK's failure to tackle growth and fiscal responsibility to the
slow down in the rate of growth of both India and China. The rosy millennial
forecasts now look not just like "cockeyed optimism", but wishful
thinking. We are looking at a sea change in how the global economy functions.
For governments, this means a new age of austerity and a major rethink of
spending, as the costs of health care grow significantly – approaching 50% of
public expenditure in each Canadian Province. Education will be challenged to
sustain its resource base.
Power is shifting. From the continued fall out from the Arab Spring, to
new power alliances over climate change which have emerged post-Copenhagen and
new roles for the BRIC economies, we see the dominance of the US in decline and
the rise of issue based coalitions. There is no post-Washington consensus. The
weakness of the military performance by the US led coalitions in Iraq and
Afghanistan are also signals that "all is not as it once was". What
is clear is that power is uncertain and major challenges to the stability of
regions - Syria, Iran are examples- show that power and authority are now
diffuse. At a more local level, challenges are evident in to the nature of
government and their governance. While the public demands more, they are also
cautious about the lack of transparency and the failure of politicians to
either engage with their constituencies or make tough decisions – and tough
decisions are the order of the day. Political expediency is now seen as
problematic rather than a skill. In education, the battle to determine who has
power and what schools should do is being fought between schools, school
boards, unions, government and the profession. Power is a struggle.
Sustainability and the balance between human activity and the well being of the
planet remain delicate issues, but are shaping strategies for energy,
transport, innovation, growth and development. With seven billion people living
on the earth and two more billion expected by 2050, we need to get smart about
our life style expectations, social corporate responsibility and leadership. It
is clear that using guilt as the basis for encouraging action - the thrust of
the climate change movement - has led to only modest and insignificant changes
in behavior. But a focus on the opportunities created by population growth and
making the innovation challenges of sustainability an imperative could enable
adaptation and change. Whatever happens, we need to change our behavior so that
we can feed, shelter and support sustainable lifestyles for nine billion people
- a major challenge. Our education system needs to focus more on the question
of sustainability in the context of both the local community and the global community
– when it does so, issues of equity soon become apparent.
Technology has enabled major change. Technology enabled flash mobs to staged
the overthrow of corrupt governments, is the engine of the global economy, the
reason so many people will live longer and the new way in which people meet
each other for marriage. Whether it is regenerative medicine which is using
stem cells and related technologies to regrow organs or restore function to
failing organs or information technologies which are changing the way education
is delivered in countries that are unable to build and staff schools,
technology has been transformative and disruptive. The book, music, travel,
banking and communications businesses are changed forever. The ways we
manufacture goods using robotics or undertake police investigations using new
forensic tools are all indicators that technology is having an impact on the
day to day lives of billions of people. And we haven't seen anything yet if
technology futurists are right. Technology will continue to disrupt, with
education being a major focus for this disruption. Private capital is focusing
on personalization and “technologizing” education, sometimes to the detriment
of learning and community. Equity of access to technology is an issue.
Identity is changing. A young boy of seven in a small remote village in the
Canadian Rockies explained to me that he had 149 friends, only six of whom
lived locally. His other "friends" lived in eleven countries. With
some surprise he told me that his French friends knew a lot of French and could
help him with his French homework! But this story masks an issue. He is in fact
very lonely and disconnected from his local "real" world while highly
engaged in a virtual world. His identity is not rooted in reality, but in the
world of Facebook, Twitter and computer games. He has not spent time playing
actual games like soccer, baseball or hockey but does play basketball online
with friends in Germany. I was seeing him because, as a psychologist, I was a
point of call for his depression and anxiety. Identity is also a challenge for
those immigrants recently arrived in a new country who are trying to come to
terms with different cultures and social expectations, not to mention values
and beliefs. Identity is a growing challenge in the new paradigm. There is
growing concern at the impact technology is having on the psychological
well-being of the young (including the very young) and their ability to be
resilient in the face of real-world challenges.
Making Sense of the In Between Time
These six patterns of change are the
drivers of the shift to the new paradigm. They are leading to new economic
realities, new power balances, new cultural realities within communities and a
new focus on sustainability. It would be easy to be pessimistic - the natural
state for those who dislike change and would prefer to cling to the past than
to leapfrog to the future. But we need to develop our own resilience and
ability to leverage change as an opportunity to focus the development of
community and the individuals within that community on what matters most.
What would help is if the future were clear
- a vision and understanding of the innovation expedition it will require for
us to "arrive" somewhere on the S curve of the new paradigm. But this
vision is currently elusive and unclear, with many articulating a bleak view of
the future.
The renaissance was like this, at least
according to Jacob Burkhardt’s Civilization
of the Renaissance in Italy (1878). It was an “in between time” with many
seeing the rise of individualism, the new economic reality of States and the
decline of feudal power as a paradigm shift. Renaissance thinkers saw the
opportunity and created new approaches to learning, politics, new institutions,
new forms of art and literature, new ways of thinking. They leveraged emerging
technology to make things happen and they found centres of excellence which
became lighthouses for what the future held. This is what is needed now.
There are developments which suggest elements
of a new renaissance emerging. From the Royal Society of Arts and Manufacturing
school in Tipton, the ecologically focused Eden Project in Cornwall, remarkable
experiments in pairing seniors with young children to promote literacy, new
technologies for personal health management and learning, plans to build carbon
neutral cities and communities, new forms of energy being found and exploited
as well as advances in social engagement and the occupy movement - all are
signs that people are reaching out to the next paradigm.
A vision of a sustainable planet where nine
billion people have access to water, food and shelter and are able to live a
life that they find has meaning so that they can give meaning to the lives of
others through compassion and social action is worth pursuing. A vision for
enlightenment, focused on leveraging our innovative capacity to respond to
challenges as opportunities rather than threats is a mission worth pursuing. A
strategy aimed at lowering barriers to the sharing of ideas, understanding and
knowledge so as to accelerate development and give more people the chance to
live meaningful lives is a strategy we should support. All of this requires us
to focus on equity as a core challenge.
These are the elements of the society we
are working towards, but it will be a messy journey. We can expect conflict
driven by scarcity, envy, ideology and misunderstanding. We can expect an
increase in distress before we see an increase in hope. We can imagine
mist-steps on our journey to a different future. What we can't expect is to go
back.
Equity as the Underlying Challenge
One key barrier to be overcome in this in
between time is the growing fact of inequity in developed societies, especially
those with significant wealth, such as Alberta. The growing gap between rich
and poor, between those with advanced literacy skills (level 3 and above)[1]
versus those with poor skills (Levels 1 and 2 or an inability to read and
engage in basic cognitive processes), between those born into poverty and those
born into wealth, between those with disabilities and those without and between
First Nations peoples and all others will be a key issue for all of our futures
in Canada.
The facts are clear for Canada:
- · Between 1980 and 2011 the top 10% of the working population by earnings earned on average $165,322 after tax (a 34% rise over this time).
- · Between 1980 and 2011 the bottom 10% of the working population by earnings earned on average $9,750 after tax (an 11% rise over this time).
And very clear for Alberta:
- · In Alberta, 148,000 non-elderly families and 73,000 children experienced income inequality in 2011. 34,000 of those children were below the age of 6.
- · According to Statistics Canada (2011), 300,000 Albertans fall below the low income (after-tax) cut-off – the measure of poverty. 13% of all families in Calgary and 16% of all families in Edmonton.
- · The Conference Board of Canada (2011) found that Alberta’s low-income rate increased from 6.6 to 9.9 per cent between 2009 and 2011.
- · Over two-thirds of low wage workers in Alberta are women. More women work in low wage non-standard occupations than men, usually for low pay without any benefits and not qualifying for employment insurance.
At the heart of inequality is education,
most especially literacy. When we look at the impact of education on the
ability to work and earn, we see that there is a growing demand for workers
holding a post-secondary qualification. Linda Duxbury, in her studies of
Canadian demography,
observes that some 70% of jobs now require a post-secondary qualification – a
college Diploma or a university degree. This is expected to rise to 77% by 2020.
The difference in earnings between those
who leave school without a High School Diploma (average earnings $21,200) and
those with a degree (average earnings $48,600)[4]
is substantial, as is the ability to increase earnings over time amongst those
with post-secondary education – the higher the qualification the higher the
earning power.
This is an especial challenge for those
from First Nations. The strongest performance by students with registered
Indian status who wrote the Provincial Achievement Test was in grade 3. Over
the past two years approximately 40% of grade 3 students in band-operated
schools and 50-70% of aboriginal students in other school systems met the
Acceptable Standard in English language arts and mathematics. The weakest
performance was in grade 9. In the past three years, fewer than 15% of grade 9
students in band-operated schools and fewer than 50% of students in other school
systems met the Acceptable Standard in mathematics, science and social studies.
While this measurement data exists, these observations cannot be generalized to
all students with registered Indian status in the province due to the low
participation rate of these students in the Achievement Testing Program,
especially at the grade 9 level[5].
Given the fact that the aboriginal student
population is fast growing, the growing inequity between First Nations peoples
and other Canadians is a source of social tension. The unemployment rate for
First Nations is twice that for other Albertans. Just over 33% of aboriginals
in the workforce have no post-secondary qualification and only 6.7% hold a
first degree[6].
Given the pattern of
educational outcomes in Canada, it is likely that Canada will experience major
challenges in securing the skills needed. Linda Duxbury suggests that by 2020 Canada could be short about
1 million workers due to the decreasing fertility rates, an ageing population
and the skill gap between the output of education system and the demands of
employees.
The Canadian
Council on Learning has also indicated there is a clear “gap between the demand
for workers with strong literacy and numeracy skills and the supply of
Canadians who possess them.” They point out that the growth in the information
communication technology industries, coupled with the reduced demand for
unskilled workers due to foreign outsourcing, has only served to intensify the
need for skilled workers.
The
question is why there is such a gap when Canadian teenagers do so well on tests
such as PISA's and on various other measures of educational outcomes. The
answer, they posit, lies in the failure of adults to keep up with the “demands
of the emerging knowledge society and information economy”. In other words,
lifelong learning is as essential to a strong economy as successful schools (as
can be seen in the OECD’s Education at a
Glance statistics on adult participation in education and learning,
job-related training is comparatively low in Canada).
For literacy, the data is most
disconcerting:
•
42 per cent of the Canadian
population—nine million people—between 16 and 65 years of age have literacy
levels that do not permit their full engagement in a knowledge-based society.
•
In Alberta the absolute numbers
of adults with skills below Level 3[9]
is projected to grow from 1,051,413 to 1,233,000 from 2006 to 2016, or 17%.
•
Overall 46% of employed Alberta
workers have a literacy skill deficit.
•
18 Alberta industries function
with 50% or more of their employees with literacy levels below
that demanded by their jobs.
•
One third of young employed persons have literacy skills below the level
required for their occupation.
•
59% of immigrants in the
experienced labour force are in literacy skill deficit compared to 43% of their
non-immigrant peers.
- this despite frequent testing for
learning outcomes in Alberta. It is not that reading is absent, more that
comprehension, critical and adaptive thinking and in-depth understanding are in
short supply.
Literacy, as defined here, thus is a major
source of inequality: without literacy at the skill level required, then
promotion and advancement in employment and labour mobility are inhibited.
Canada and Alberta has growing gap between
rich and poor and between those with high literacy skills and low skills.
Skills shortages will occur, even though there will be individuals searching
for work. The gap between searchers and employment will be focused on
educational attainment and literacy.
Education and Equity
These data and our understanding of their
dynamics suggest that equity is a major challenge for our society as
development occurs. As the gap between rich and poor grows, fuelled by
educational attainment and literacy, we will see growing challenges to the
viability of organizations, communities and occupations – all placed under
stress by the six forces which this chapter began with. But there is another form of equity that we
should be conscious of. That is the equity between schools in terms of their
ability to make a difference to students learning.
One the claims of the Finish system,
documented in Pasi Sahlberg’s book Finnish
Lessons[10],
is that the learning outcomes achieved by schools in Finland show little
difference between them. In fact, Sahlberg goes further and suggests that
variance within a school in terms of performance is greater than the variance
between them (see page XX). He suggests that this is a critical component of
the Finish school system – the lack of significant difference in outcomes
between schools means that there is geographic equity (outcomes are not
dependent on where you live or which school you attend) as well as actual
equity. He sees such equity as a major thrust for educational policy.
This between school equity is not the case
in other jurisdictions. In the UK, for example, there is a vast difference in
outcomes between one school and another, reflecting both the “inputs” into the
school system as well as its learning processes[11].
This is also the case for many other school systems. The key variables here are
poverty, the literacy skills of parents and their social network and
investment.
In Alberta, schools perform well on
international measures of attainment, such as PISA and TIMSS. However, when Provincial
Achievement Test data are reviewed, it is the case that significant differences
exist between schools in terms of their performance on standardized tests[12].
Indeed, so substantial are the differences that the Minister of Education felt
compelled to act in dismissing a School Board whose district (Northlands) had
significant and sustained under-performance in comparison with others.
This is a complex challenge. Poverty and
values as well as social conditions and community shape educational attainment
and attitudes towards learning. The school is a part of a complex system of
interactions which shape learning and performance. Seeking to secure equity so
that schools are a great place for learning for all students is a major
challenge and requires new thinking, new approaches to teaching and learning
and new patterns of investment.
Equity in education
has two dimensions. The first is fairness, which basically means making sure
that personal and social circumstances – for example gender, socio-economic
status or ethnic origin – should not be an obstacle to achieving educational
potential.
The second is
inclusion, in other words ensuring a basic minimum standard of education for
all – for example that everyone should be able to read, write and do simple
arithmetic. The two dimensions are closely intertwined: tackling school failure
helps to overcome the effects of social deprivation which often causes school
failure.
The OECD, which
increasingly is seeing equity as the cornerstone of an educational strategy
which countries need to adopt, suggests that there are ten steps to achieve equity
in education. These are[13]:
In Designing an Education System
Focused on Equity:
·
Limit early tracking and
streaming and postpone academic selection.
·
Manage school choice so as to
contain the risks to equity.
·
In upper secondary (high
school), provide attractive alternatives, remove dead ends and prevent
drop-out.
·
Offer second chances to gain
from education.
For education practice:
·
Identify and provide systematic
help to those who fall behind at school and reduce year repetition.
·
Strengthen the links between
school and home so as to help disadvantaged parents to help their children to
learn.
·
Respond to diversity and
provide for the successful inclusion of migrants and minorities within
mainstream education.
Resourcing:
·
Provide strong education for
all, giving priority to early childhood provision and basic schooling.
·
Direct resources to the
students with the greatest need.
·
Set concrete targets for more
equity, particularly related to low school attainment and dropouts.
And while Canada performs well on some of
the OECD indictors of educational equity (better than Finland in mathematics
and just behind Finland in reading), there is much to do to make equity the
cornerstone of our thinking about the school and its future.
Conclusion
The great baseball legend Yogi Berra once
famously said "the future isn't what it used to be". He was right. We
should take comfort, then, from Dan Quayle's belief that "the future will
be better tomorrow". It will only be so if we address equity as the
central challenge for Canada in the twenty first century.
4085 words
Level 5 – Very strong skills able to
find information in dense text and make high-level inferences or use specialized
background information.
Level 4 – Strong skills able to
integrate and synthesize information from complex or lengthy passages.
Level 3 – Adequate skills for coping
in a complex advanced society. Equivalent to the skill level required for high
school completion and college entry.
Level 2 – Weak skills, can deal with
simple clearly laid out material. May be able to cope with everyday demands but
will have difficulty with new situations.
Level 1 – Very poor skills, may not
be able to determine the correct dosage from the label on a medicine bottle.
[4] See
http://www4.hrsdc.gc.ca/.3ndic.1t.4r@-eng.jsp?iid=54#a2
[6] See Taylor, A., Friedel, T.L. and Edge, L. (2010) First Nation and Metis Youth in Northern
Alberta. Ottawa: Institute on Governance (mimeo).
[10] Sahlberg, P (2011) Finnish
Lessons: What the World Can Learn from Educational Change in Finland. New
York: Teachers College Press.
[11] See a body of
work on school effectiveness, value added and school performance by authors
such as David Reynolds, David Hargreaves and others. This work was triggered by
the pioneering work of Rutter, M et al (1982) Fifteen Thousand Hours – Schools and Their Effects on Children. Boston: Harvard University
Press. Also see Reynolds, D [editor] (2000) International
Handbook of School Effectiveness Research. London: Falmer.
[12] See, as evidence, http://alberta.compareschoolrankings.org/pdfs/Fraser_Institute_Report_Card_on_Alberta%E2%80%99s_Elementary_Schools_2012.pdf which, while extremely limited
in scope, does show significant differences in outcomes on key measures for
elementary schools.
