Looks to me lik a classic case of someone missing the point. At least one of these creatures knows what it's doing.

Thunder and Lightening

What impact is global warming having on the frequency and intensity of tornadoes?

If you read a range of newspapers you may be convinced that these two things - warming and tornadoes - are strongly linked.  Yet there is no convincing scientific evidence that this is the case. This despite the fact that Al Gore included this claim in his Nobel prize / Oscar winning movie - just another unfounded assertion.

The New Scientist reviewed the research and, while thunder storms show some association, they conclude that there is no current evidence. So, the answer is NO (for now). 

My Home Town

A new think tank report suggests that my home town - Bradford in West Yorkshire - is beyond redemption and that its population would be well advised to move out and go to Oxford, London or Cambridge. The same is also said about Sunderland. At the heart of the argument is the assumption that the various attempts to stimulate development through regeneration projects have failed.

Bradford is a poor place to be. When we returned to live and work in Yorkshire in 1998 we chose to live in Harrogate. We looked at Bradford, but soon were despairing. Both Lynne ("she who must be obeyed" a.k.a. "her indoors") and I were born and brought up in Bradford and were saddened by the state it had got itself to. Leeds, just a few miles away, was vibrant and growing. Bradford seemed to be in  serious decline.

However, the report is a little barmy. The thesis is that we are living in a knowledge economy - people in the right mind should want to live in the heart or hinterland of a knowledge powerhouse - this means (to the authors) Oxford, Cambridge or London. What bollocks (a technical term meaning "arrant nonsense").  Leeds is a vibrant research centre just 11 mies from Bradford. The Dales are a tourist mecca and Bradford is close to the centre of the UK.

While current regeneration projects may be less effective than intended, this does not imply that other interventions cannot make a difference.

If we can consider the reconstruction of Afghanistan, then the ongoing development of Bradford cannot be that much of a challenge.

David Cameron, the Tory leader, has quickly dismissed the report. Lets hope everyone else follows suite.

Just a thought..

eARTh

Art, or more accurately the ARTS, are essential components of modern life. WIthout  the ARTS we have very little in the way of imaginative activity to give meaning. Its the Fringe Festival here in Edmonton. Support the ARTS.

Lost Leader

Gordon Brown has no luck. He will now need to call another by-election in a Scottish constituency - the one next door to his own. A Labour colleague, who had a majority of just over 10,000, just died following a long battle with cancer. He could well find himself under real pressure when Labour looses this seat, just it lost in Glasgow.

Its looking more and more serous for Labour. They are covering up their leadership crisis and hoping that they can muddle through. They won't. Its like lemmings marching in unison towards the cliff edge. Leaderless and in denial, the party struggles with its identity and its role.

The Spectator's Fraser Nelson wrote a piece (see the 2nd August edition) suggesting that Labour could be in the wilderness for a very long time, replaced by the Liberal Democrats as the second part. He notes strong parallels with the collapse of the Liberal Party - once the natural party for government. Lets hope he is wrong - there are good people with serious intent inside the party.

But "new" labour has failed. Its social investments haven't led to the kind of change they promised and the party itself is both rudderless ands broke. Its time for a radical change within the party and a change of its social policies.

This is Exactly What It Seems

 
Language skills are not at their best amongst sign writers in Dubai.

Not What You May Think!

 
Sometimes the images you stumble across give meaning to your day. And sometimes, they are just very funny or fun...

Canada's Military Casualties

Canada has now lost 90 soldiers and 1 senior diplomat in the NATO operations in Afghanistan. Each time this occurs, its headline news and all our news networks show ceremonies commemorating the soldiers service. And so they should. They died doing the right thing and trying to make a difference and to prevent a nation returning to servitude. We need to see each death as an opportunity to recommit to the mission – make Afghanistan safe so that reconstruction can take place for one of the poorest countries in the world.

But there is something else going on – something I am finding difficult. It’s the idea that this level of deaths is unacceptable and against the post second world war role of Canada in the world. It is almost like suggesting that no Canadian solider should ever die while serving their country.

So lets get things in perspective. When Canadian troops were involved in action in World War I in such battles as Passchendaele (the subject of a powerful new film), we lost this number of soldiers every few minutes. In fact, death of allied soldiers was 2 persons killed for every inch of ground gained – a total of 140,000. Canada took the Belgian town in November 1917, led by Sir Arthur William Currie.

In World War II, Canada lost a lot of soldiers in World War II – 45,000 in all, with an additional 54,000 wounded. On June 6, 1944, the 3rd Canadian Division landed on Juno Beach in the Battle of Normandy and sustained 50% casualties in their first hour of attack. By the end of D-Day, the Canadians had penetrated deeper into France than either the British or the American troops at their landing sites, overcoming stronger resistance than any of the other beachheads except Omaha Beach. 5,300 Canadians died trying to liberate Italy.

In the Korean War . some eleven army officers, 298 other ranks and 3 sailors fell in action. Fifty-nine officers and 1143 other ranks were wounded or injured. By all accounts, the Canadians performed exceptionally.

Since the end of the War many Canadians think that we have focused entirely on peace-keeping and that we are the leading peace keeping nation in the world. In part this is because we did well in the first Gulf War (1991), though we did have just 2,000 troops involved. Also, we did focus on peace keeping – often a dangerous activity. In the Balkans alone Canada suffered 11 fatalities and 102 wounded.

Canada is engaged in Afghanistan because it is the right thing to do. The Taliban were brital and repressive – beheading teachers if women were in the class, stoning people and generally pursuing an agenda unacceptable in the modern world. If we are not willing to intervene, to risk to defend human rights, then we should not have pretentions about being a world power and influential nation.

We dishonour our troops by decrying the mission in Afghanistan. Its now fashionable to think that war is wrong and peacekeeping is about diplomacy – it worked well in Zimbabwe didn’t it!

We need to think carefully before committing troops – it’s the most awful decision a Prime Minister can make (and this one was made originally by a Liberal Prime Minister). It is part of the burden of power. But once we have made this decision – it was the right thing to do and it remains the right thing to be doing – we should do all we can to minimise casualties but accept that it is part of the commitment we are making.

Honour those who have fallen. Honour those who continue to defend and build a new society in Afghanistan. Honour the mission, Accept that casualties will occur and don’t pretend that all situations can be solved by talk. They can’t.

Paulmartinitis

There is a new psychological syndrome which has strong Canadian roots: paulmartinitis. It occurs when national finance Ministers become convinced that they need to lead the country and spend years plotting to do so, only to find on securing the top job that they are not capable of it. While Paul Martin is one Canadian example of this, he is not the only one – several national leaders around the world can be seen to be suffering from the syndrome. It also turns out that he may have “caught” some elements of this syndrome from John Turner and other elements from Jim Callaghan of Britain who was, looking back, also a carrier of the syndrome and suffered its consequence – humiliation at the hands of the electorate.

In the current political world, the Prime Minister of Britain, Gordon Brown, is clearly experiencing the full blown symptoms of this syndrome – political onslaught from all sides within their own party, arrogance, denial of reality, stumbling through several attempts to relaunch themselves and alienation from the electorate. Those around him are showing the usual signs of self-deception and undue loyality. His days are numbered.

There are three features of this syndrome which are worthy of note. First, the individual themselves remain convinced until the day they loose office that they are “the right person for the job” or, as Margaret Thatcher used to say “there is no alternative”. Further, the more obvious it becomes that this is not the case, the more vehement they are in asserting their inherent right to office. Paul Martin’s final election campaign contained so much vitriolic self-serving rhetoric that it would have been possible to provide sufficient hot air to fuel a round the world balloon race.

Second, those around the person suffering from this syndrome become so obsessed by the fear of failure. This in turn leads them to assert that there is no alternative to the Prime Minister. Harriet Harman, the Deputy Prime Minister of Britain and Jack Straw the Justice Minister and many others are demonstrating this feature at the moment with respect to Gordon Brown –in doing so, failing to mask their own underlying ambitions.

Third, and most important, the impact of the syndrome with respect to the work that Government is supposed to do and its impact on the electorate seems not to be a consideration for those seeking to treat the syndrome by removing the underlying cause – an ineffective Prime Minister. Fear of loss of political patronage, loss of personal position and loss of power by the party override concerns about health care, housing, food prices or the environment. So much time and attention is spent managing the syndrome and its effects that there is little time left to do the real work of government.

In the end, the only known cure for this syndrome is called a ballot. This is a complex procedure, used rarely because the risk of real career-threatening consequences are known to be high, and involves the electorate assessing the extent of damage the syndrome is doing to the country and themselves. In the case of Paul Martin, it lead to the collapse of the Liberal Party, which remains in the doldrums and not seen as yet ready for Government by many, especially those who remember Paul Martin. In Britain, it will lead to the collapse of the “New” Labour Party as we know it and the exile from public life for a period of time of Gordon Brown.

Other interventions have been tried by pioneering political surgeons – an internal party coup being one example of this. Margaret Thatcher fell because of just such a move made by Geoffrey Howe. A second intervention is to create the conditions for a scandal which will force the suffering Prime Minister to leave office. To be fair, the idea of Gordon Brown being involved in a sex scandal is, well, simply beyond belief.

As with all addictions, there is only one route that can avoid risky ballot surgery. It begins with the sufferer themselves admitting that they are not up to the position and seeking help. Former Finance Ministers Anonymous (FMA) recommends that the sufferer begins each day by chanting “I am not worthy” several times and, after a few days of this, resigning from office with the excuse of an illness. This is the first step to recovery. The second step is to find work that they can actually do, preferably out of politics – as did John Turner (eventually). I am sure that Gordon Brown’s own friends and private advisers are working on this particular cure strategy behind the scenes. We should wish them good luck.

Meantime, those around the sufferer and their public suffer. They can take relief by reading about Prime Ministers who are incompetent in other countries and saying “its not just us then” or by buying lottery tickets and hoping they will win enough to be able to leave the country - as many Brits already are

Canada and an Election

There is much speculation about Canada facing a fall election. The rationale goes something like this:

1. Harper was elected with a minority and has governed much longer than anticipated by the party - they need a fresh mandate and need to smarten up, an election will do it.

2. Dion wants an election mainly to settle internal party rumblings about his leadership, which sees him essentially not making progress and likely to lose an election. By having one, they can have a leadership convention or race.

3, No one in Canada other than journalists or politicians wants an election, since we have realized in the last24 months that the Federal government doesn't matter much at all ("it doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always gets it).

4. The country is involved in an unpopular military/humanitarian campaign in Afghanistan as part of NATO. People appear upset that the military are losing people in battle. We're close to the 100 person mark after several years - about the same that was lost in 8 minutes of fighting in World War 1 or 10 minutes in the Italian campaign in World War 2. Apart from this, there is nothing significant to talk about.

5. Some people think that climate change is the issue for the election - Dion is trying to make it so. Trouble is he can't proununce "Green Shift" - his name for the challenge to the Tories - when he says it, it sounds like Climate Shit (which is about right).

6. Ontario will be key. Here it seems that the Liberals are playing quiet in exchange for cash - $6 billion so far - to help them cope with their failing economy. Watch for the Ontario Liberals supporting Harper at the next election.

7. Quebec is confused (no change there). Harper has done everything he can to give away Federalism in the hope of a Tory breakthrough in the Province - its not happening. The Block is on the block and the Alliance cant get anyone to talk to.

So, we could go to the polls to confirm the status quo. It will help bankrupt the Liberals, cause a leadership race and lead to a lot of interesting newspaper content. It could also mean the end for Harper - if he fails to get a majority, his party may look for someone else - someone with a personality and maybe an ability to inspire,

Meantime, keep an eye on Bob Rae - the man to watch for the Liberals. As for the Conservatives, well Peter Mac or, or, eh,,well anyone but Stockwell Day!

The Mugabe Problem

Robert Mugabe will be elected President of Zimbabwe by default now that Morgan Tsvangirai has determined that he cannot compete in an election which is undemocratic and shaped by murder, rape and starvation.

The fact that Mugabe can remain in office is a testament to the weakness of the United Nations and the failure of the modern world to cope with a dictator who does not hesitate to use any means at his disposal to stay in power. Sanctions, which have been in force for some time, are not working. Mugabe has no concerns that his people are starving and being forced to leave the country. He has no concerns that his country is an economic basket case, despite being blessed with superb farming conditions and a great many natural resources.

Armed intervention aimed at regime change is the only unequivocal answer to this situation. Yet the war in Iraq and the struggle with the Taliban in Afghanistan have soured the appetitive for such action amongst the liberal democracies of the world. Britain, Canada and the US are at troop critical levels and could only make token contributions to an armed intervention. Other democracies – Germany, Spain, Italy and France in particular – appear hesitant to engage in combat in foreign lands unless their own sovereignty is directly threatened.

Most disturbing has been the response of the African states, especially South Africa. Mbeki, President of South Africa, has a personal debt to Mugabe – the latter paid for Mbeki to receive his education. But this is not an excuse for pretending that Mugabe is a hero and a liberator when he is clearly a despot. The Mugabe of today bears no relation to the liberation leader Mbeki once admired. There is nothing colonial or racist about wishing the end of a dictator who has destroyed his country and inflicted misery on his people and intends to continue to do so.

In the last few days some African leaders have made clear that a Presidential election could no longer be regarded as free and fair. In particular, Nelson Mendella’s coded message this week is helpful. There was also a move to bring about a coalition government, based on a commitment that no war crimes prosecution would follow and that no charges would ever be pursued against Mugabe, including those relating to the murder of a large number of Matabelie since he came to power. Mugabe rejected this option, making clear that only God could remove him from office. He may still be forced to negotiate, but don’t hold your breath waiting for change.
If a military response is not possible, then there are three things that need to happen. First, the world should refuse to recognize the outcome of the Presidential “run off” election and only accept the result of the first ballot and declare that Morgan Tsvangiari is the elected President of Zimbabwe.

Second, the United Nations and the African states should work for the creation of a coalition government and use the effective veto of refusing to supply the essential electricity from South Africa to Zimbabwe until the country agrees. This will require a pardon for Mugabe and all of those currently in power, but it may be sufficient to force change. Replacing the existing government with the opposition is not likely to be effective – one of the lessons of Iraq. Balancing some of the more moderate members of Zanu PF and the skills of the MDC is what is needed. It may take an African peace keeping force to enable this to happen.

Third, there needs to be a massive response from the world community to rebuilding of the Zimbabwe economy. It has rich farm land and substantial resources – farming needs to be pursued with vigour and the infrastructure needs to be rebuilt. Only when it is will the three million or more exiles begin to return to work for the future of the country. The security and development of the region as a whole depends on this effort.

None of this is likely to happen. Once Mugabe confirms himself in power, he will work for the elimination of all opposition by whatever means he deems appropriate. He will refuse to permit any return of foreign aid organizations to the country, since he blames them for enabling the opposition to flourish. The country will fall into further decline and the need for a military intervention and regime change will become more and more obvious each day that passes.

What the world is likely to do is precisely what it has done for the last five years – nothing. What ever happened to our concern for human rights?

Published by the Edmonton Journal, July 2008

Doha Round About

Originally published in the Edmonton Journal in July:

Food has is more expensive now than it has been in a generation. In part this is because many of the input costs for food production has risen. There is also growing demand to use base crops for energy production and there are the now exceptionally high costs of transportation. We see the impact on our grocery bills, but the real impact is in countries where the poor now find their access to food severely restricted.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) was intended to have an impact on both price and the freedom on producers to operate competitively globally. It has failed to do so. The final attempt to salvage the so-called Doha round of talks collapsed this week, mainly due to the reluctance of developed countries (most especially France and Germany) to significantly reduce farm subsidies. They also refused to remove barriers to imports from developing countries – a battle which is basically between the US, India and China. It was very much a “rich” versus “poor” debate, with the rich not wanting to help the poor nations grow through trade.

The cynic might conclude that the failure to make a base agreement around a core industry reflects badly on the World Trade Organization. It does not. It reflects badly on the European countries who cannot stomach telling their overly subsidized farmers to “make it or go bust” and the US who wants to protect its farmers from competition. The proposal which was floated in the recent round was for cutting the limit on European farm subsidies by 80%, and US payments by 70% to about $14.5bn and for the reduction of tariff barriers to agricultural trade – bringing all jurisdictions closer to true market conditions.

What will happen now is already clear – Canada will begin to make bilateral arrangements with other countries in the Americas, with Japan, India and China. It will aggressively pursue access to these last two markets as well as Brazil and Russia – all fast growing economies. What will not happen is that we will persuade our largest trading partner to liberalize access to markets for developing countries, which Canada sees as an important strategy to support the economic independence of nations.

Canada will also need to look again at the concept of free trade as it relates to agriculture. A serious rethink is needed of the weakened internal transport infrastructure for grain, the role of supply agencies such as the Wheat Board, incentives for biofuels and the future of key agricultural industries, especially livestock. Free trade within Canada and open markets for producers selling to the US directly would be a strong sign that Canada is serious about reform of the subsidy regime. Any remaining trade tariff barriers for developing countries need to be removed. Canada should show by doing that it is serious – unilateral action aligned with the Doha round objectives would show global leadership.

There should also be a serious inquest into the processes used by the WTO to try reach agreement. The Doha round began in 2000 with great fanfare and hopes of a real breakthrough outcome . In meeting after meeting, the same players have effectively blocked change for the same reasons that the first round did not produce a result. There is no court of appeal for stubbornness borne out of self serving, small minded protectionism.

Speaking of which, with the possible election of a US President who is more protectionist than their predecessors , this round of talks was seen as something that needed to be “closed” before George W Bush left office. Barrack Obama has been clearly protectionist in many of his comments about trade, jobs and globalization. Obama’s “audacity of hope” extends to Arkansas but not to those in Africa who seek an end to US trade restrictions – it is obviously too audacious to ask Americans to compete directly with others in the agricultural sector without substantial subsidies and protection.

So we are at impasse – the talks have definitely failed, some 200 or so new bilateral agreements will be negotiated by the 153 nations associated with the process and the poor will stay poor. This failure shows what happens when the global community tries to tackle a global issue- national interest trumps what everyone knows to be right. Just wait until we get really serious about climate change!

The Road t o Hell...

before you arrive at your final destination), is paved with good intentions.

For example, I am sure Air Canada had every intention of getting me from Toronto to Edmonton in reasonable time last Wednesday when it loaded me onto a plane at 5.30pm and kept me on that plane till almost 8pm before we took off. We arrived several hours late – enough time for me to finish reading Ken Follett’s The Pillars of the Earth (923 pages), watch the movie We Own the Night and take in a glimpse of the stunning movie Elizabeth, with Cate Blanchett.

I am equally sure that the ill fated Mitt Romney really had every intention of running for President of the United States. The fact that few liked him, that he was basically a right wing-nut only got in the way when he realized that he couldn’t win.

And that Oprah has every intention of being intelligent, focused and hip – only succeeding in this latter item by virtue of size and failing miserably on the first two items (aided by Gail King and Steadman).

Or that Ed Stelmach, Premier of Alberta, intends to win the Provincial election on March 3^rd despite the fact that his communications skills are those of a reclusive Serbian monk on sleeping tablets. He even makes former Premier Don Getty look like a Kennedy, according to The Globe and Mail. (I had him confused with that animal that comes out every year to predict what kind of summer we are going to have – a Corpu or something).

Equally, then, I had every intention of maintaining this blog and of being a reliable source of sauce, gossip, attitude, acerbic comment and insight (not necessarily in that order). Sadly, a little thing called work got in the way. In 2007/8 I managed to write the equivalent in word count of four novels, one good non fiction book or two editions of the skeptic’s bible. I also secured super elite status on Air Canada (not that this means a thing any more).

So, I let the blog slide.

As a penance, I have re read Room at the Top and watched a dreadful 1950’s movie filmed in Morocco and drank a bottle of Mateus Rose.

But I am really going to try, honest.

Speaking of the Presidential race in the US (what about the one in Pakistan?) – it is actually getting interesting.

Looks like the democratic party convention will actually have to do what it was always intended to do – chose a candidate. Curiously the democratic party doesn’t like the idea that every primary and caucus counts – it would prefer that super Tuesday had settled it. John Dean (who fizzled out last time round), Chairman of the Party, would like it to be settled so that the party can start to take on the republicans rather than each other.

And then we have Senator McCain (no connection to the potato billionaires). No one has yet drawn the parallel with Bob Dole - the GOP candidate against Clinton (male). McCain is the same as Dole and will most likely end up against Clinton (female). He is too old, too grey, too liberal and too, well, dull to beat either democrat. Plus McCain has to overcome the real problem for the GOP – George Bush, the sitting President and world class idiot. McCain has to beat Bush to win the republican vote, and then has to beat Clinton to win the election.

McCain will likely have Huckabee as his running mate, and he is clearly articulate and can play the guitar. He is also actually a conservative, which should help McCain, who isn’t.

Interesting – far more interesting that the coming Canadian federal election, which will see the end of Mr Dion, the failed leader of the Liberal Party of Eastern Canada.

English Reflections

England is such an expensive place. A drink of ginger beer, cup of soup and a sandwich at the Royal Festival Hall was twenty three dollars – a ticket to the Philharmonia was seventy six dollars and the tube there was five – over a hundred dollars to listen to Sibelius (Karelia and the violin concerto) and Tchaikovsky (4^th symphony). Some things are a better deal – The Wigmore Hall has Sunday morning coffee concerts for twenty dollars (Vermeer String Quartet playing Mozart 22 and Beethoven 15) and the Wyndham Theatre on Charring Cross Road has Charles Dance performing in a moving stage play Shadowlands – for fifty dollars. Even getting in to see some pop art (including Warhol’s Marilyn’s) at the National Portrait Gallery was twenty two dollars – all this is cheap because the Canadian dollar hit $1.07 last week. But just look – a couple of concerts, a play and an exhibition for one hundred and thirty five dollars.

“I don’t know how people manage to afford to live here,” commented an affable Canadian in the torture chamber they call Heathrow airport. The answer is that they don’t. Personal debt in Britain is now at £1.73 trillion and grows at £15 million an hour each hour, each day. Personal debt in Britain will lead to close to 50,000 houses being repossessed during 2008 if interest rates remain the same as they are now, which is unlikely. It’s getting tough out there – 40% of those who now apply for additional credit, can’t get it and many more will find themselves squeezed when the credit crunch really comes home to roost post the sub-prime melt down which is now disabling global credit systems.

All of this is most notable with the elderly, who suddenly find their pensions do not match their basic needs. They look shabby, under nourished and ill treated – many walking with a shuffle and not a smile. They have some concessions – a free bus ride anywhere in Britain will shortly be possible and there are seniors discounts for concerts – but not many. Britain is a place that doesn’t treat its old kindly.

Nor is it a place that is particularly British. During my recent one week stay, it was rare to hear English spoken – in fact, it was more probable in Bayswater to hear Polish or Italian or some eastern European language. The revelation that Britain has had over 1,500,000 immigrants since 2000 and that over half the new jobs created by “new” (read tired and worn out) Labour have gone to immigrant workers is not at all surprising. It is also worrying – politically, immigration and race are back on the agenda and this is never a good thing in a country which hates the French, treats the Italians as a joke and thinks the Scots are heathens. One conservative party candidate had to resign after praising Enoch Powell’s foresight in his “rivers of blood” speech in the 1970’s.

What is it with hotels in Britain? I checked in to the Royal Hyde Park Hotel, Queensway in Bayswater – two minutes from the tube. The room was the size of a double bed plus two feet on one side and at the foot of the bed, plus a kind of cupboard in which there was a shower, toilet and washbasin the size of a teacup.

So into small was this hotel that the sheet on the bed was not big enough to cover the mattress. No wonder they make you pay before they give you the key!

I managed a week in this box. They made the bed each day (but not on Sunday) and provided clean towels each day and that was that. There was a tiny wardrobe and three coat hangers, five little drawers and a table at the foot of the bed just big enough for a kettle, a cup and possibly a box of tissues (not supplied).

Breakfast was included, though inedible (toast prepared at 7.30 for a breakfast not available until 8) and coffee that tasted like sludge with dandruff in it.

Oh, there was a television – in one corner some six feet up on the wall. It was a small television, not big enough to watch anything serious or long – squinting to make sure you could see it hurt my eyes.

I did not spend long in this room – just enough to sleep (being careful to sleep on the sheet and not the mattress) and I breakfasted across the street at a café. Eating locally – Lebanese, Indian, Chinese, Brazilian, Italian, Welsh..- was the best way to go.

Ryanair is the airline everyone uses and loves to hate. I flew from Stanstead to Dublin and back for a total cost of twenty two pounds plus the tube and rail fare to get there – another twenty two pounds. The airline left on time and was early landing both going and coming back. It was efficient, cheap and easy. I don’t know why people get upset. For the money, it’s a great deal – I left at 0930 and was back downtown in time for a meal and a movie.

I met with some business colleagues at a hotel in Dublin. There was a nice incident. One of my colleagues is allergic to cows milk and related products. He asked the waitress if the feta cheese in the Greek salad was goats feta, she said “no, its from Denmark”. Reminds me of a time in a pub in northern Alberta when I asked for a Tuborg and was told by an innocent barmaid that they “were out of borg’s”, and “would you like two of anything else?”

My friend Sarajane and her partner Brian took me out on the town on my birthday. After a long and leisurely breakfast, Brian and I went to the Pop Art exhibition at the Portrait Gallery. Brian was a student of art history and teaches watercolour to adult education students, so this was a special treat and much appreciated. The Pop Art was a little disappointing – not much energy in the exhibit and a great many pieces not there which should have been. But then I went around the rest of the NPG – what a terrific place. Full of wonderful evocative portraits - many which I had only seen in books. Vivid, bright paintings which capture the essence of the people.

Later, I also managed a quick trip to the Bankside to see the autumn watercolour exhibition from the Royal Watercolour Society – some very fine paintings, including one from HRH Prince Charles. Some of the landscapes and abstract watercolours were exceptional.

Popped into the Tate Modern to see the “crack” in the floor – no idea how this has been done, but it does attract a lot of interest. Apparently, someone actually got stuck in it early on.. there is no accounting for stupidity.

Then onto Tate Britain to see the Malais as well as the Hockney on Turner exhibition. The Malais was wonderful – his Ophelia will be a painting I will never forget, and some of his portraits (especially of his own daughters) are simply magnificent. He was a master of art and a terrific portrait painter.

Which is more than can be said for the Hockney on Turner exhibition. It would be more accurate to describe it as a heck of a lot of Turners, which I do not enjoy at the best of times, with the odd comment from Hockney.

The good news is that the fish and chips at the Tate Britain are just as good as at the Tate Modern – both top class, amongst the best in London.

Saw two films. Rendition – the story of how the US used third parties to conduct torture interviews with suspected terrorists –very compelling, if a little brutal. Strong acting. Also saw Keira Kinghtley in a very classic version of the Ian McEwan novel Atonement. Superb acting all round, though a friend suggested that Keira was a little overly proper – too clipped and trying too hard to be British upper class. It worked as movie, mainly because of the strength of the ensemble as a whole, but especially because of the strong acting from the three women playing Brierly at three stages of her life.

On the flight back saw Once – a light film about an Irish man trying to make it in the music business who befriends a young Czech girl. Nothing to write home about.

Lest you think I did nothing but gad about doing arty things and eating, I also taught at Oxford with my partner Don Simpson and finalised a deal over two days (one in Dublin) with Middlesex University and met up with colleagues who run the Irish Centre for Work Based Learning. I also fell asleep on a train returning from Oxford to London and was gently woken by a guard – thus saving me a return trip to Oxford I did not want to make (at least no one stole my teeth, which is what happened to my brother who fell asleep on a bus, found himself in Scotland (he was just going to Leeds) sans false teeth, which someone had stolen from his pocket).

Read the novella by Alan Bennet The Uncommon Reader. It is about The Queen taking up reading and it changing her life – clever, as one might expect from Alan, and insightful about the power of books. There are some wonderful one liners, especially when he refers to gay authors (of which he, of course, is one) and the odd jab at fellow scribblers.

The book reminded me of a joke, attributed to the late Victor Borge. He said that if you put ten monkeys in front of a piano they would eventually play Mozart, but you would have to put up with a lot of Andrew Lloyd Webber before you got there.

There is a lot of talk in Britain about dumbing down – people say that all this reality television is “dumbing down” the BBC or that the English press, especially The Times and The Telegraph, is “dumbing down”. By this it is meant that there is an attempt to appeal to the lowest common denominator and to over play the cult of the largely unknown celebrity. This is true, though occasionally both television and the newspapers surprise by either a stunning drama or excellent and critical reporting. Both television news and the intelligent press coverage of events in Pakistan this last weekend (the President declared a state of emergency and imprisoned over 500 of his opposition and muzzled the media) show that the team can still bat a good innings when given the opportunity to do so. There was also a new Stephen Poliakoff film (Joe’s House) which I saw most of, but fell asleep before the end. Two terrific paired television dramas – Britz by Peter Kosminsky – showing how seemingly ordinary sons and daughters of immigrant parents can become terrorists also suggest that “dumbing down” is only part of the story.

Its All in a Name ..

A coupled called their new son ANDERSON PLAYFAIR WORT as given names - their surname was something innocuous. Isn't this all getting out of hand? I know it is not as bad as Stu Pid or Chris P. Cream or Jack Mehoff or Ima Cumming (all real names), but really.

Mind you. there are some odd place names. Like Climax (Saskatchewan), which really should be near Fucking in Austria (32 km north of Salzburg) and is already quite a way form Hellhole Bay (South Carolina).

The names bands give themselves are also an interesting topic for some sociologist to get their teeth into. Like these: Penis Flytrap or the Squirrel Nut Zippers. Mind you, a band once named themselves after me The Murgatroyd's (its a long story).

Thinking of language, about the first page I check in the Saturday Globe and Mail (a Toronto newspaper that pretends to be Canada's national newspaper, as if) is the competition which focuses on interesting challenges in the book section. This week you had to change or add one letter to a known disease to give it a new meaning. The two that took my fancy were ALGOREOPHOBIA (the fear of yet another global warming lecture from this not entirely truthful former next President of the United States) and WHIPLUSH (injury to the neck from falling off a bar stool).

Steady Eddy Wobbles

Ed Stelmach. Premier of Alberta, made a move. By 2010 energy related royalties in Alberta will increase by $1.4 billion on certain assumptions about energy prices. If they are higher than now, royalties will be higher if prices are lower the royalty increase will be lower. The basic arrangements are as follows:

• New, simplified royalty formulas for conventional oil and natural gas that will operate on sliding scales that are determined by commodity prices and well productivity. The formulas eliminate the need for conventional oil and natural gas tiers and several royalty exemption programs.
• A sliding scale will be implemented for oil sands royalty rates ranging from one to nine per cent pre-payout and 25 to 40 per cent post-payout depending on the price of oil.
• The province will exercise its existing right to receive “royalty-in-kind” on oil sands projects (i.e. raw bitumen delivered to the Crown-operated Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission in lieu of cash royalties). Because this bitumen can be sold or used for upgrading or refining, royalty-in-kind can be sold by the province to support value-added, upgrading projects in Alberta.
• The province will ensure that eligible expenditures and definitions of oil sands projects (also known as “ring fence” definition) that determine when a project has reached payout are tightly and clearly defined. Environmental “costs of doing business” will continue to be recognized as eligible expenditures.
• No grandfathering will be implemented for existing oil sands projects. The government is in discussions with Syncrude and Suncor, whose Crown agreements expire in 2016, to transition to the new oil sands royalty regime.
• Substantial legislative, regulatory and systems updates will be introduced before changes become fully effective in January 2009.

Natural gas royalties will be unchanged – the industry is in enough trouble as it is, with low prices and increased costs of securing and exploiting new, deep finds.

It’s a smart move – not as bad as many expected and better than some feared. No one will be satisfied.

The oil companies will bleat and moan and their share price will drop for a very short time (good time to buy). They will then get on with business, with a slight slowing of projects (which is not a bad thing). Three years from now, all will be well.

Meantime, the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta will now need to go into over drive to sell this decision as a good deal for Albertans. I doubt that this will trigger an election – it started to get cold today and a few flecks of snow were seen about town. Buy we are headed that way. I suspect there will be a very different kind of Alberta budget statement on February 10^th 2008 and we will head into an election on February 11^th 2008. If, however, the oil patch starts to take on the Premier, he will goto the people and they will vote him back in.

Royalties are not the real issue, though they are important. The real issue is that current royalties will drop by close to $2 billion and Alberta government spending is out of normal bounds – well above inflation and a factor for population growth. Further, few government departments manage within budget and there are surpluses due to poor foreword forecasts of oil prices (risk management requires modest forecasts). The budget will rightly correct some of this – Stelmach is a fiscal hawk – but come as a surprise to many Albertan’s who are blissfully unaware of the true circumstances of the Province.

Alberta has invested $11 billion in municipalities and $18 billion in infrastructure from forecast revenues. Health care costs are rising rapidly and, at current rates, will take 50% of all revenues by 2020. Personal taxation revenue, already the lowest in Canada, will decline as more and more baby boomers retire. There are also legal requirements as to the use of surplus revenue. So pretty well all room for manoeuvre is small.

Of all the issues Stelmach faces, health care is the real worry. The system is broken and there are so few strategic and system thinkers with the courage to fix it – the inmates of tacticians and vested interests (nurses with collusion from doctors) have been running the asylum for too long. The public have been seduced into thinking that more money will make a difference – there is strong evidence that the challenge has little to do with money, but is more about strategy, structure and culture. We cant allow costs to continue to escalate.

So it will not get interesting.

Stelmach seems shocked that Alberta is being branded the “new Venezuela” (it is a totally ridiculous charge – especially given that royalty rates in Texas are much higher than here) and he is no communicator. Someone has to step up to the plate. Watch this space.

Oh Dear...

Ed Stelmach, despite the gift of the royalty review, was especially weak last evening in his televised address to the people of Alberta. It was pleasant, innocuous and largely rhetorical. It was not exciting or challenging and it dropped hints about a royalty for energy announcement due at 3pm on 25th October. But it was poor (and very low cost) TV and did not fire the imagination.

I was with Ed at a function as the broadcast took place. He spoke to some 300 people. He comes across as a decent, intelligent man who has no communication skills. He comes across as someone who is determined to do his best, but will never meet the standards set by others.

He is also incredibly naive about his own environmental policy, which most see as very weak but he sees as strong. Alberta has set intensity targets for carbon reduction, which in essence permits CO2 to grow by 37% between now and 2015 - less than would have been the case without these targets, but not as much as Kyoto requires.

So we wait till 3pm today to see what Honest Ed will do. Hopefully (again I use this word) he will get it right today. Fingers crossed.

Green Bubble

Thomas Friedman, author of The World is Flat and a columnist for the New York Times, wrote an editorial piece in the New York Times recently about greentech and the green strategies of governments which ended with these words:

“We have a multigenerational problem that requires a systemic, multigenerational response, and that can happen only if we get our energy prices right. Only that will guarantee green innovation and commercialization at scale. Anything less is wasted breath and wasted money — and any candidate [for the Presidency] who says otherwise is only contributing to global warming by adding hot air.”

His point is that many of the “solutions” being touted to global warming are small scale and that the pace of change is too slow to make a difference.

Key to all of this, in his view, is the pricing of energy – changing behaviour through market is how real change will occur.

Several steps would be needed to make this happen. First, there would be a need to challenge energy producers to reduce carbon emissions significantly – adding costs to the supply chain, well to wheel. Second, it would be helpful to demand that cars can travel additional km’s from a litre of gas – creating better use of the gasoline or gas-ethanol blends. Third, there would be a need to increase gasoline taxes and reinvest the additional funds in public transport systems and infrastructure. Fourth, there would be a need to increase royalty rates from wells and oil production – adding yet more costs to the supply chain. Finally, a green tax on all forms of air transport – people and goods – would further demonstrate that CO2 emissions - e.g. a tax on air travel that went into a carbon offset fund.

When gas at the pump gets to be $4.50 to $5.50 a litre here in Canada, then social behaviour may change.

So too will other things. Poverty will increase – food prices and costs of almost all goods will increase significantly. Travel will become very expensive – a tank of gasoline for a trip to Calgary from Edmonton would cost $275 – economic activity would slow.

It’s a tough call. No one is willing to make it.

Goodbye Stephane Dion and (Hopefully) Well Done Ed Stelmach

Stephane Dion claims to be the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. I says “claims to be” because there are almost no signs of leadership behaviour. He has a party that is full of strife, former leaders Chretien and Martin fighting over history, Quebec liberals in complete disarray and a policy book which is being steadily raided by the Government of Stephen Harper. He is not communicating effectively with either his party or the country (at least if you live in the West). His policy on the environment, while sounding tough, is no different from the one he espoused when in office – he did nothing to act on it and the Liberals blew off Kyoto in terms of action (but was very strong on rhetoric).

More significantly – the Liberal party is making itself irrelevant (just as the NDP has been for many years). They are not at the forefront of twenty first century challenges, nor are they positioned to speak to the youth of today.

Dion should do the decent thing and resign. He should do it immediately after his party bottles out of challenging the government on their throne speech later today. Continuing his charade demonstrates his cynical regard for true politics and reveals his ability to insult the people of Canada. The party should then go for one man one vote election for a new leader - not the charade of a delegate conference which is how this particular leader was chosen. They should also start to rethink their role in politics – they will be out of office for at least a decade.

While we’re on politics, today is the big day in Alberta. It’s the day Premier Stelmach will tell us what the future looks like, at least as far as it relate to Alberta’s energy economy. Good luck to him. The behaviour of the oil companies has been deplorable. Threatening to pull out of major projects if royalties increase significantly. They will not. Stelmach knows this, but will find a middle course and do the right thing. I am having dinner with him tonight as the broadcast to the people is being shown. I hope we can cheer at his determination. I hope this is the real start to his Premiership.

About Africa

What will it take to “solve” the problem of Africa?

Our historical answer to this questions has had two major thrusts. First, we colonised Africa and exploited it, making one or two African’s wealthy, but essentially enslaving many in the service of the few. Second, we flooded the continent with aid. Neither of these strategies appear to work.

Currently we are continuing a twofold strategy – aid and peacekeeping, with a sideline on corruption extinction. This is also not working.

The real strategy is to promote wealth. Not wealth of the few – but the development of free and effective markets with focused investment and a strong investment in education, research and infrastructure,

The basic solution is capitalism, not socialism. Get used to it.

If this is of interest to you, I recommend you look at this video: http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/159